The 2022 Midterm Elections

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

We've outperformed in polls before at the state level and lost. Just ask Russ Fiengold, Katie McGinty, Sara Gideon, Steve Bullock, Bill Nelson and on.

Democrats sure do have a way of being miserable. All of those, except for Nelson, were when Trump was on the ballot. You didn't mention 2018 where Democrats did well all across the country except for Florida.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Democrats sure do have a way of being miserable. All of those, except for Nelson, were when Trump was on the ballot. You didn't mention 2018 where Democrats did well all across the country except for Florida.

And yet even in 2018 there were examples of state-level polling in Senate, Congressional, Gubernatorial, and State Legislative races where Democrats underperformed what the state polls showed. It isn't about being miserable, it's about having realistic expectations that pollsters still have been struggling to capture the total Republican vote share and produce more accurate, state-level polling. You can both be realistic in your assessment of polling and committed to making sure Democrats get the wins that polls say they'll get, even if you are skeptical of said polling.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

And yet even in 2018 there were examples of state-level polling in Senate, Congressional, Gubernatorial, and State Legislative races where Democrats underperformed what the state polls showed. It isn't about being miserable, it's about having realistic expectations that pollsters still have been struggling to capture the total Republican vote share and produce more accurate, state-level polling. You can both be realistic in your assessment of polling and committed to making sure Democrats get the wins that polls say they'll get, even if you are skeptical of said polling.

The polls in 2018 were pretty accurate: https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/19/politics/2018-midterm-elections-good-year-polls/index.html

Either way, you want to ignore the here and now and actual elections happening now where Democrats are over performing because of polls from 6 years ago.

[Motown Bombers]

Meanwhile Republicans see being done by 13 good news. Democrats convince themselves being up 13 is bad.

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

The polls in 2018 were pretty accurate: https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/19/politics/2018-midterm-elections-good-year-polls/index.html

Either way, you want to ignore the here and now and actual elections happening now where Democrats are over performing because of polls from 6 years ago.

2020 was 6 years ago? I know time flies during the pandemic, but I didn't realize it was 2026 already.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

2020 was 6 years ago? I know time flies during the pandemic, but I didn't realize it was 2026 already.

Only two of the ones you mentioned were 2020. One was Steve Bullock who was losing in a red state, the other was Gideon who was probably the biggest surprise since Biden overperformed in Maine in 2020, but all those elections happened before Dobbs and every single election since Dobbs has been in the Democrats favor not to mention voter registration has been in the Democrats favor. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Only two of the ones you mentioned were 2020. One was Steve Bullock who was losing in a red state, the other was Gideon who was probably the biggest surprise since Biden overperformed in Maine in 2020, but all those elections happened before Dobbs and every single election since Dobbs has been in the Democrats favor not to mention voter registration has been in the Democrats favor. 

We are talking about the accuracy of polling data and whether or not Democrats should rely on it as a good indicator. Sure,  Dobbs may well throw everything out the window and flip the script on the midterms. It's also true that polling has ticked up big time since Dobbs. I hope the Dobbs decision does cost Republicans and Democrats come out victorious across the country. But there is still the fact that state-level polling has been off in certain places for several cycles. Yes, you are correct, it is has primarily, but not always, been when Trump was on the ballot. Polls showing Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum winning Florida in 2018 are examples of that.

[Motown Bombers]

9 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

We are talking about the accuracy of polling data and whether or not Democrats should rely on it as a good indicator. Sure,  Dobbs may well throw everything out the window and flip the script on the midterms. It's also true that polling has ticked up big time since Dobbs. I hope the Dobbs decision does cost Republicans and Democrats come out victorious across the country. But there is still the fact that state-level polling has been off in certain places for several cycles. Yes, you are correct, it is has primarily, but not always, been when Trump was on the ballot. Polls showing Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum winning Florida in 2018 are examples of that.

Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillium lost by less than half a point. The polls weren't actually that far off. Those races were so close that a minor shift either way would change the outcome. Nelson was up 2.6 per RCP and lost by 0.2, less than a 3 point shift. There was also Wisconsin in which RCP had Baldwin up 10.6 and she won by 10.8, if there was a 2.5 shift in that race, it wouldn't have mattered. Things have changed since 2018 and we have actual election where Democrats are overperforming. 

[mtutiger]

4 hours ago, oblong said:

Have the polls adjusted for their errors in previous elections?  I'm not sold yet.

 

I would find it hard to believe that 2020 hasn't influenced how pollsters have tailored their models going into 2022. The fact that polls aren't necessarily showing what the conventional wisdom would suggest may be cause for some skepticism, but it isn't necessarily proof that pollsters haven't made changes.

Edited September 8, 2022 by mtutiger

[oblong]

so basically nobody knows anything. I unfollowed a bunch of them after 2020, they weren't giving me value as a reader.  I don't see the point in nitpicking or worrying about methodology when it's so close b/c the margin of error takes care of solid accountability.  When everything is qualified with disclaimers then I don't see the point.  The polls in general show a shift to D's but whether that's enough in all the races isn't known so expect anything and there will be enough for everyone to claim to be right in some manner of speaking. 

[mtutiger]

13 minutes ago, oblong said:

so basically nobody knows anything. I unfollowed a bunch of them after 2020, they weren't giving me value as a reader.  I don't see the point in nitpicking or worrying about methodology when it's so close b/c the margin of error takes care of solid accountability.  When everything is qualified with disclaimers then I don't see the point.  The polls in general show a shift to D's but whether that's enough in all the races isn't known so expect anything and there will be enough for everyone to claim to be right in some manner of speaking. 

OK

[Mr.TaterSalad]

WaPo: The shadow stalking Democrats’ improving numbers: Can polls be trusted?

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Tigerbomb13]

15 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

If this doesn’t give people incentive to vote, nothing will. 
 

Edit: meant that for the abortion vote, but this is cool too

Edited September 8, 2022 by Tigerbomb13

[Motor City Sonics]

If 

1 hour ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

If this doesn’t give people incentive to vote, nothing will. 
 

Edit: meant that for the abortion vote, but this is cool too

This and the abortion issue makes me much more confident that Democrats will retain or even gain.    

[ewsieg]

Abortion is on the ballot in Michigan.  Game Set Match for Whitmer.

[ewsieg]

10 hours ago, ewsieg said:

Abortion is on the ballot in Michigan.  Game Set Match for Whitmer.

I saw the likes, which I guess I understand.   I never thought i'd be a one issue voter, yet there are two single issues in which I wouldn't vote for Dixon now (Abortion and Election/Trump).  That said, we'll be rewarded with this sentiment by 4 more years of a mediocre governor (honestly, only accomplishment that she screwed over Konstanstinov?!?!) along with an horribly incompetent (Flint) and possibly corrupt (See Dugan/Benson husband) Attorney General and a Secretary of State which only increased waiting times, even before Covid, not to mention her law breaking husband.....

Sad that these are our options, even sadder that with the options, there is still only one clear cut choice.....ugh.

[mtutiger]

That's the danger of going all-in on one message....

[romad1]

On 9/10/2022 at 12:11 AM, ewsieg said:

I saw the likes, which I guess I understand.   I never thought i'd be a one issue voter, yet there are two single issues in which I wouldn't vote for Dixon now (Abortion and Election/Trump).  That said, we'll be rewarded with this sentiment by 4 more years of a mediocre governor (honestly, only accomplishment that she screwed over Konstanstinov?!?!) along with an horribly incompetent (Flint) and possibly corrupt (See Dugan/Benson husband) Attorney General and a Secretary of State which only increased waiting times, even before Covid, not to mention her law breaking husband.....

Sad that these are our options, even sadder that with the options, there is still only one clear cut choice.....ugh.

She survived the attempt to murder her by Trump campaign officials.  So there is that. 

[ewsieg]

22 hours ago, romad1 said:

She survived the attempt to murder her by Trump campaign officials.  So there is that. 

Trump officials?

[Mr.TaterSalad]

On 9/10/2022 at 12:11 AM, ewsieg said:

I saw the likes, which I guess I understand.   I never thought i'd be a one issue voter, yet there are two single issues in which I wouldn't vote for Dixon now (Abortion and Election/Trump).  That said, we'll be rewarded with this sentiment by 4 more years of a mediocre governor (honestly, only accomplishment that she screwed over Konstanstinov?!?!) along with an horribly incompetent (Flint) and possibly corrupt (See Dugan/Benson husband) Attorney General and a Secretary of State which only increased waiting times, even before Covid, not to mention her law breaking husband.....

Sad that these are our options, even sadder that with the options, there is still only one clear cut choice.....ugh.

https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/issues/accomplishments

Governor Whitmer has actually accomplished quite a bit in the 3.5 years she's been Governor. We have record investments in public schools with increases in per-pupil funding. She's made significant investments in hiring mental health professionals in schools as well and has worked to have more of them per child than at any time in Michigan. She's also been the first Governor in two decades to build a new state mental healthcare facility and psychiatric hospital since Governor Engler closed many of them in the 1990s. 

We've gotten significant reinvestments from the auto industry with new manufacturing jobs and a reinvestment from Ford (albeit it subsidized) in the old Grand Central Station in Detroit. We've also had more road and infrastructure upgrades than almost any prior Governor and she's been able to fix more miles of roadway than Snyder, Granholm, or Engler. She's also worked to fix led waterline and pipe issues across the state in more communities than just Flint, like Benton Harbor.

[ewsieg]

3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/issues/accomplishments

Governor Whitmer has actually accomplished quite a bit in the 3.5 years she's been Governor. We have record investments in public schools with increases in per-pupil funding. She's made significant investments in hiring mental health professionals in schools as well and has worked to have more of them per child than at any time in Michigan. She's also been the first Governor in two decades to build a new state mental healthcare facility and psychiatric hospital since Governor Engler closed many of them in the 1990s. 

We've gotten significant reinvestments from the auto industry with new manufacturing jobs and a reinvestment from Ford (albeit it subsidized) in the old Grand Central Station in Detroit. We've also had more road and infrastructure upgrades than almost any prior Governor and she's been able to fix more miles of roadway than Snyder, Granholm, or Engler. She's also worked to fix led waterline and pipe issues across the state in more communities than just Flint, like Benton Harbor.

I'll give her props on focusing on mental healthcare, but as for the rest, are you enjoying that kool-aid you're drinking?

[Mr.TaterSalad]

2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I'll give her props on focusing on mental healthcare, but as for the rest, are you enjoying that kool-aid you're drinking?

So you're choosing to ignore what she has accomplished and instead insert a Kool aid comment on a just because basis? Do you have information that can rebuke what I shared in-terms of her progress on schools or roads/infrastructure projects?

Free Press: Record investments in public education

State of Michigan Budget: $6.3 billion allocated towards road and infrastructure work

 

[Motown Bombers]

24 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/issues/accomplishments

Governor Whitmer has actually accomplished quite a bit in the 3.5 years she's been Governor. We have record investments in public schools with increases in per-pupil funding. She's made significant investments in hiring mental health professionals in schools as well and has worked to have more of them per child than at any time in Michigan. She's also been the first Governor in two decades to build a new state mental healthcare facility and psychiatric hospital since Governor Engler closed many of them in the 1990s. 

We've gotten significant reinvestments from the auto industry with new manufacturing jobs and a reinvestment from Ford (albeit it subsidized) in the old Grand Central Station in Detroit. We've also had more road and infrastructure upgrades than almost any prior Governor and she's been able to fix more miles of roadway than Snyder, Granholm, or Engler. She's also worked to fix led waterline and pipe issues across the state in more communities than just Flint, like Benton Harbor.

Now imagine what she could do without a republican legislature only determined to pass anti abortion and voter suppression laws. She's been our last line of defense from an all out assault on our democracy in Michigan.