The 2022 Midterm Elections

[Motown Bombers]

Thread

 

[RatkoVarda]

 

[RatkoVarda]

stop stop he's already dead!

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Huge improvement for Ron Johnson in the latest Marquette poll with an 8 point swing. I'd be curious to see the crosstabs on this and who the voters are they reached out to versus last time. I'd also be curious to see what issues these voters say they care about most. Also, poll numbers will historically look better in the summer and tighten up as we get to the fall. I wonder if this is a reflection of that.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[mtutiger]

4 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Huge improvement for Ron Johnson in the latest Marquette poll with an 8 point swing. I'd be curious to see the crosstabs on this and who the voters are they reached out to versus last time. I'd also be curious to see what issues these voters say they care about most. Also, poll numbers will historically look better in the summer and tighten up as we get to the fall. I wonder if this is a reflection of that.

One thing that I saw mentioned was that Barnes had the airwaves all to himself around the last poll, which isn't the case now; Johnson has caught up on advertising.

It's not all good news for Johnson though; his unfavorables are just about as bad as the last poll. Barnes needs to do more to define himself and get his name recognition up, similar to Ryan and Fetterman.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

How much does yesterday's really bad inflation numbers, specifically showing food prices continue to skyrocket, blunt Democrats momentum and help Republicans? How much are people really thinking about abortion rights or crazy right wingers when their eggs, bread, meat, milk, and snack foods all cost more? When it costs more to pack their kids lunch are they thinking about Dobbs all that much?

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

How much does yesterday's really bad inflation numbers, specifically showing food prices continue to skyrocket, blunt Democrats momentum and help Republicans? How much are people really thinking about abortion rights or crazy right wingers when their eggs, bread, meat, milk, and snack foods all cost more? When it costs more to pack their kids lunch are they thinking about Dobbs all that much?

I suspect that is already a calculation in people's decisions... I don't know that the average American hangs specifically on CPI numbers coming out, I suspect they just notice it when they go to the store.

[oblong]

10 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

How much does yesterday's really bad inflation numbers, specifically showing food prices continue to skyrocket, blunt Democrats momentum and help Republicans? How much are people really thinking about abortion rights or crazy right wingers when their eggs, bread, meat, milk, and snack foods all cost more? When it costs more to pack their kids lunch are they thinking about Dobbs all that much?

Well I would think they should already be "feeling" that announcement for the 30-45 days prior to the official release of the numbers, or else their reaction is just to news, not their reality.  If paying more upsets them then it should have upset them before being told a % by CNBC or CNN.  That should have been reflected in polling and voting, no?

 

 

[Tigeraholic1]

10 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

How much does yesterday's really bad inflation numbers, specifically showing food prices continue to skyrocket, blunt Democrats momentum and help Republicans? How much are people really thinking about abortion rights or crazy right wingers when their eggs, bread, meat, milk, and snack foods all cost more? When it costs more to pack their kids lunch are they thinking about Dobbs all that much?

Depends on who you ask. Folks working from home in their nice little enclave, still counting all that extra stimmy money and can't figure out how to spend it all will stay on point with Dobbs. The rest of America worry where they will offset the higher costs. 

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, oblong said:

Well I would think they should already be "feeling" that announcement for the 30-45 days prior to the official release of the numbers, or else their reaction is just to news, not their reality.  If paying more upsets them then it should have upset them before being told a % by CNBC or CNN.  That should have been reflected in polling and voting, no?

 

 

Inflation had previously been going down a bit as an issue nationally because of gas prices, although it's still very salient.

The CPI numbers in and of themselves really matter more to shape the coverage of inflation in the media. I don't think the average American, who is already going out and shopping (and paying more for milk, eggs, meat, etc.) is making their determination one way or another on inflation by those numbers specifically, they are doing it when they go to Kroger and notice paying more.

Edited September 15, 2022 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Depends on who you ask. Folks working from home in their nice little enclave, still counting all that extra stimmy money and can't figure out how to spend it all will stay on point with Dobbs. The rest of America worry where they will offset the higher costs. 

We don't have any extra "stimmy money" and aren't wealthy, yet still are able to care about other issues as well, fwiw.

[Tigeraholic1]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

We don't have any extra "stimmy money" and aren't wealthy, yet still are able to care about other issues as well, fwiw.

Then my comment was not directed at you was it?

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Then my comment was not directed at you was it?

My vote is contingent in part on Dobbs, so it kinda helps unravel your stereotype of who cares and doesn't care about that issue perhaps.

[Tigeraholic1]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

My vote is contingent in part on Dobbs, so it kinda helps unravel your stereotype of who cares and doesn't care about that issue perhaps.

I would say that 85-90% of folks in HERE are college educated living well above the poverty line but is that the majority of the voting Americans? I was only commenting on the question asked. Other than patting each other on the back there is very little debate in this forum which is fine, you just won't get much perspective. 

[mtutiger]

12 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

I would say that 85-90% of folks in HERE are college educated living well above the poverty line but is that the majority of the voting Americans? I was only commenting on the question asked. Other than patting each other on the back there is very little debate in this forum which is fine, you just won't get much perspective. 

You don't have to be below the poverty line to be concerned about inflation. Or impacted by it.

[Tigeraholic1]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

You don't have to be below the poverty line to be concerned about inflation. Or impacted by it.

Or inflation, which was part of Taters question.

[gehringer_2]

But consumers don't really experience the year to date inflation number, they experience the month to month change, which was 0.1%. It basically takes a year for the year to year number to come back down even after inflation cools.

I don't know if people don't understand the math or maybe they expect prices to go back down (which usually won't happen much except for raw commodities), but lets say in May of 2020 prices rise 10% then stop going up. You will still get a 10% year to year inflation rate report every month until May of 21 even with no prices increases over 11 of those months.

Edited September 15, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

The biggest problem the monthly CPI number presents is with peoples 401k.  It cratered the market on Tuesday.  So if you have $500,000 in your 401k and it lost 3% that is $15,000.  Inflation is driving the market down, about 17% so far this year.  On $500K that is about $85,000 for the year you have lost.  People are going to freak out about that a lot more than the extra $5 a week they will be paying at the market this week.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

11 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

The biggest problem the monthly CPI number presents is with peoples 401k.  It cratered the market on Tuesday.  So if you have $500,000 in your 401k and it lost 3% that is $15,000.  Inflation is driving the market down, about 17% so far this year.  On $500K that is about $85,000 for the year you have lost.  People are going to freak out about that a lot more than the extra $5 a week they will be paying at the market this week.

Unless you have little or no 401k and live at or just above a paycheck to paycheck lifestyle. Those needing every paycheck to get by are impacted by the CPI numbers at the grocery store because all the everyday items and foods they buy are still horribly expensive compared to a year ago. Many living a near paycheck to paycheck lifestyle probably have little invested in the market and maybe only a small 401k through their employer, that they aren't likely following super closely. I can't help but think there are going to be political repercussions for the party in power, the Democrats, for that.

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

The biggest problem the monthly CPI number presents is with peoples 401k.  It cratered the market on Tuesday.  So if you have $500,000 in your 401k and it lost 3% that is $15,000.  Inflation is driving the market down, about 17% so far this year.  On $500K that is about $85,000 for the year you have lost.  People are going to freak out about that a lot more than the extra $5 a week they will be paying at the market this week.

True, but higher interests rates are going to lower the stock market and higher interest rates following a period of FED zero interest rates and QE were inevitable even without inflation compressing the timescale for the increases. The die was cast for equities to see a future period of pain a long time ago.

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Unless you have little or no 401k and live at or just above a paycheck to paycheck lifestyle. Those needing every paycheck to get by are impacted by the CPI numbers at the grocery store because all the everyday items and foods they buy are still horribly expensive compared to a year ago. Many living a near paycheck to paycheck lifestyle probably have little invested in the market and maybe only a small 401k through their employer, that they aren't likely following super closely. I can't help but think there are going to be political repercussions for the party in power, the Democrats, for that.

I think this is true, but even with the better polling numbers for the Dems over the past couple of months, those repercussions may still be a factor in those numbers.

Put another way, perhaps inflation is actually holding their numbers back from being higher than they currently are right now. I would buy that to the extent that the GOP has very little to go on offense about aside from it, and the fact that unlike a standard midterm, the out party is on the wrong side of  the issue with the largest thermostatic backlash in the cycle (ie. Dobbs)

Edited September 15, 2022 by mtutiger

[Mr.TaterSalad]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I suspect that is already a calculation in people's decisions... I don't know that the average American hangs specifically on CPI numbers coming out, I suspect they just notice it when they go to the store.

I don't know that they hang onto CPI numbers either. I just worry that the negative headlines that the mainstream media (CNN, NBC/ABC/CBS Nightly News, Fox, local newspapers, online clickbait sites) will lead with, will shape people's perceptions that nothing is getting better. That high prices and economic despair will be here to stay. The more people are reminded of the high prices at the grocery store, the worse it gets politically. The news media covering the CPI numbers the way they have is yet another stark reminder of that economic despair.

It was part of the narrative around gas prices. Gas prices are high, so the media covers it with a doom and gloom, pain the the pump narrative. That narrative than shapes people who consume that media's opinions and beliefs, thus doing damage to Democrats in power. Gas prices go up, Democrats approval ratings go down. Inflation stays high and the news doesn't get any better on CPI numbers, so people swing back away from Democrats right before voting. So the worse or more negative the news media coverage gets, the worse things get for Democrats. Even if people feel inflation every time they go shopping, when the media beats it into their head that things aren't getting any better, that's when the real political damage can be done.

Maybe I am just being too much of a pessimist myself and piling on Democrats midterm chances with bad spin of my own. I just so deeply subscribe to the old James Carville philosophy of "it's the economy stupid" and that people's pocketbooks are what have in the past and will now drive the election cycle.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[mtutiger]

The other part is the special elections.... we talk about polls a lot, but Democratic candidates generally have outperformed their polls in specials since the summer began, in places like NE01, MN01, NY19, AK-AL (granted this one is a bit unique). 

The composition in the electorate will be different in November, no doubt, but generally at this point in the cycle, the party in power isn't winning these races.

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I don't know that they hang onto CPI numbers either. I just worry that the negative headlines that the mainstream media (CNN, NBC/ABC/CBS Nightly News, Fox, local newspapers, online clickbait sites) will lead with, will shape people's perceptions that nothing is getting better. That high prices and economic despair will be here to stay. The more people are reminded of the high prices at the grocery store, the worse it gets politically. The news media covering the CPI numbers the way they have is yet another stark reminder of that economic despair.

It was part of the narrative around gas prices. Gas prices are high, so the media covers it with a doom and gloom, pain the the pump narrative. That narrative than shapes people who consume that media's opinions and beliefs, thus doing damage to Democrats in power. Gas prices go up, Democrats approval ratings go down. Inflation stays high and the news doesn't get any better on CPI numbers, so people swing back away from Democrats right before voting. So the worse or more negative the news media coverage gets, the worse things get for Democrats. Even if people feel inflation every time they go shopping, when the media beats it into their head that things aren't getting any better, that's when the real political damage can be done.

I understand, although I think the picture is more of a mixed bag at this point.... consumer confidence levels have actually risen over the past month or two, probably on the back of gas prices subsiding some.

Not to mention that GOP insiders themselves have started to acknowledge that inflation alone isn't going to maximize their gains in the midterms.

Bad headlines undoubtedly shape coverage though, and that is a risk for sure. No argument here.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I understand, although I think the picture is more of a mixed bag at this point.... consumer confidence levels have actually risen over the past month or two, probably on the back of gas prices subsiding some.

Not to mention that GOP insiders themselves have started to acknowledge that inflation alone isn't going to maximize their gains in the midterms.

Bad headlines undoubtedly shape coverage though, and that is a risk for sure. No argument here.

The consumer confidence numbers are good and a marked improvement for the month of August. I didn't have those in mind when I made my original post. I hope that translates beyond the negative coverage the media has and will continue to give the August CPI and inflation numbers.