2022 Trade Deadline

[Tiger337]

38 minutes ago, casimir said:

If the Tigers add Higginson and the Yankees add Bernie Williams.....

I think the trade was supposed to Michael Drumright and Roberto Duran for Bernie Williams.  Randy Smith insisted an agreement was in place and that the  Yankees reneged.  I think Smith was high.  If it was another team besides the Yankees, I could believe that they were trying to dump Williams' salary, but trading Williams in his prime for prospects was not the Yankees way.  

[mtutiger]

20 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Oh I am sure they will get good number of calls on Lange but with that being said I am guessing they will need to be blown away by the proposed package given Lange's service time. All that being said I am guessing 2 out of the 4 of Chafin, Jimenez, Fulmer and Soto end up getting moved and we will be disappointed with the return of the prospects on at least 1 of the 2 trades. I would also not be surprised if any of Grossman, Barnhart, Pineda are moved as well even just for lottery tickets. 

I know he's gone at the end of the year, but kinda hope that unless they are blown away, they just hold onto Pineda to help keep the rotation stabilized. Especially with inning limits being hit and whatnot.

After Norris last year, IDK what to expect the relievers to bring back. Expectations are set pretty low on this front but wouldn't be surprised if they are exceeded either.

Edited July 20, 2022 by mtutiger

[KL2]

11 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Or don’t make a trade.  

That's stupid. 

Pass on a pitching prospect who can help, when we've seen how pitchers can get hurt because someone won't give you an equally rated bat. Isn't that why we held on to Boyd? 

[Tenacious D]

4 minutes ago, KL2 said:

That's stupid. 

Pass on a pitching prospect who can help, when we've seen how pitchers can get hurt because someone won't give you an equally rated bat. Isn't that why we held on to Boyd? 

My point is that we’re under no obligation to make a trade.  Moving a young pitcher like Soto for another young pitcher, unless it’s a big upgrade, doesn’t make sense.  I also believe we have a lot of good young pitching knocking on the door, so yes, I’d prefer we fill one of the 7 lineup spots next to Tork and Greene that are currently mostly a black hole.

[LongLiveMaroth]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I know he's gone at the end of the year, but kinda hope that unless they are blown away, they just hold onto Pineda to help keep the rotation stabilized.

I can understand that thought process. You know he is probably good for 5IP each time he goes out and what you get back for him probably wouldn't be worth much.

[Tenacious D]

4 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

I can understand that thought process. You know he is probably good for 5IP each time he goes out and what you get back for him probably wouldn't be worth much.

If he doesn’t yield anything of worth in return, you keep him.  We need as many innings we can get out of him, in the event of more injuries or innings limits to our young guys.

[mtutiger]

One thing to keep an eye on is Rule 5 status for a lot of Tiger minor leaguers.... quite a few guys are going to be eligible this go round, including Ryan Kreidler, Reese Olson, Andre Lipcius, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, Wenceel Perez, etc.

Within the context of the trade deadline, I wonder if that will have any bearing on the team in terms if there may be dark horse trade candidates we aren't talking about (ie. the Castros, to the extent either have any value) or how they may choose guys to add as throw-ins or sweeteners on deals.

Edited July 20, 2022 by mtutiger

[pyrotigers]

If Soto pitched for another team, and the Tigers traded a top prospect for him, I'd be posting here about how stupid it was and how it was a classic Tigers mistake. 

We have multiple pitchers we got for nothing off the scrap heap who have performed similarly. 

Obviously, I hope other teams disagree with me 

Edited July 20, 2022 by pyrotigers

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

If Soto pitched for another team, and the Tigers traded a top prospect for him, I'd be posting here about how stupid it was and how it was a classic Tigers mistake. 

Maybe, but I don't know how much fans of other teams have the same negative impression of Soto that Tigers fans have. My impression is that our fans dislike our players more than other teams fans do lol

[mtutiger]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2021-deadline/

Just for the purpose of this discussion, Daniel Norris (who was awful last year) managed to return the 13th best prospect involved in the deadline last year according to Fangraphs.

I doubt the Tigers would get someone like Andy Pages for Soto, but I do think we may be undervaluing him somewhat in this discussion. Something like what the Pirates did with Clay Holmes, raiding someone's depth, could be achievable with Soto even if we dislike him a lot lol

[chasfh]

14 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Maybe, but I don't know how much fans of other teams have the same negative impression of Soto that Tigers fans have. My impression is that our fans dislike our players more than other teams fans do lol

Probably depends how knowledgeable those fans are. If all they're looking at is saves, period, those fans would probably conclude that Soto is within shouting distance of being the very best reliever in the league.

[LongLiveMaroth]

I would say the closest we have to what brings to the table is the Kendall Graveman trade from last year in which for 1.5 seasons of Rafael Montero and .5 seasons of Kendall Graveman Seattle got Toro (FV: 45+) and Josh Smith for some reason. Graveman had a better ERA etc than our RP but was a 30 year old RHP after failing as a starter and only has .5 seasons left on his contract (sound familiar?). That being said if we got a 45+ prospect and a throw in from someone for say Fulmer and Jimenez I would be a happy camper. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-astros-and-mariners-made-a-weird-trade/

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Probably depends how knowledgeable those fans are. If all they're looking at is saves, period, those fans would probably conclude that Soto is within shouting distance of being the very best reliever in the league.

Maybe that's right, idk.

Not Soto's biggest fan, especially having watched enough of him over the years, but I do suspect there are some baseball execs outside of the Tigers org who have a higher view of Soto's skill set than knowledgeable Tiger fans do.

[chasfh]

9 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Maybe that's right, idk.

Not Soto's biggest fan, especially having watched enough of him over the years, but I do suspect there are some baseball execs outside of the Tigers org who have a higher view of Soto's skill set than knowledgeable Tiger fans do.

It’s reasonable to hope for that. 

[alex]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Maybe that's right, idk.

Not Soto's biggest fan, especially having watched enough of him over the years, but I do suspect there are some baseball execs outside of the Tigers org who have a higher view of Soto's skill set than knowledgeable Tiger fans do.

Totally agree here. Also, why not 'add' a prospect (the Tigs have a few) and/or another player or two to help land the type of prospect player (on the cusp) we will want with ANY trade. AA cannot overvalue 'prospects' this deadline because teams will be/are knocking on the door asking about many of the RPs.

[RandyMarsh]

When Soto is at his best he looks as good as any reliever in baseball so there may be some execs/scouts that fall in love with those performances and overpay with the thought that they can find away to get those outings more consistently. 

[alex]

Just now, RandyMarsh said:

When Soto is at his best he looks as good as any reliever in baseball so there may be some execs/scouts that fall in love with those performances and overpay with the thought that they can find away to get those outings more consistently. 

I would agree with that.

[HeyAbbott]

Maybe trading Skubal, Fulmer, and Soto is what is needed to be done.I'd like to hold on to Skubal, but for an MLB ready position player, I am ready to kick the tires.

[Longgone]

36 minutes ago, HeyAbbott said:

Maybe trading Skubal, Fulmer, and Soto is what is needed to be done.I'd like to hold on to Skubal, but for an MLB ready position player, I am ready to kick the tires.

Re: Skubal, it makes no sense to create a hole to fill a hole. Young  top starting pitching is a huge need for this club, as much or more so than an additional hitter. 

 

[Hongbit]

I’m not sure what we have in Skubal.  Is he a potential top end starter or is he Matthew Boyd.   Dunno.  I’d prefer to keep himself little longer to tell but if someone offered the moon then I’d deal him.

[RandyMarsh]

I'm bullish on Skubal, his stuff doesn't wow you, neither does his command but both are good enough to be a plus starter but in games where one or the other are a little off there's a good chance that he is doing to struggle that day like we've seen for most of the past 5 or 6 weeks. 

He's not the type of guy who has the command to get by if his stuff is bad or the type of stuff to get by when he is missing his spots, unless he gets some babip luck off course. 

Edited July 21, 2022 by RandyMarsh

[chasfh]

36 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I’m not sure what we have in Skubal.  Is he a potential top end starter or is he Matthew Boyd.   Dunno.  I’d prefer to keep himself little longer to tell but if someone offered the moon then I’d deal him.

Maybe we find out by asking Tampa to make an offer for him. If they do, we keep him. 😁

[buddha]

no reason to trade skubal.  he's young and good and cost controlled, why the heck would we trade him unless its for a similar player at a different position of need.

let's be honest, do we trust avila to trade any of these guys?  dd?  yes.  but what's avila gonna get for any of these guys?  jose king?

let's just keep them and pray that illitch fires avila and lets the bext guy sort it out.

[1984Echoes]

7 hours ago, Hongbit said:

I’m not sure what we have in Skubal.  Is he a potential top end starter or is he Matthew Boyd.   Dunno.  I’d prefer to keep himself little longer to tell but if someone offered the moon then I’d deal him.

I wanted to take a look at this because... Matt Boyd was never as good as Skubal.

Skubal is K'ing at almost 10K's per 9 so far in his young career. With a 1.25 WHIP, low walks (2.7 BB's per 9 or a 3.7 K to BB ratio), and too many HR's at 1.7 per 9 innings. At 25 years old, he's lost some innings to Covid maybe, so his career is 288 inn's including tonight... but I'm going to look at who most closely matches that. And it ain't Boyd. I don't think Boyd EVER touched 98... something Skubal does often. I even tried Nate Robertson, who could bring some heat IIRC... but their peripherals were not close, same as Boyd's. I know Boyd had two "decent" years at 27-28... but that's it. (I am highlighting how different he is from Skubal; all other pitchers I'll highlight what is most similar to Skubal...).

So, Skubal (3 years 23-25):

288 inn's, 1.25 WHIP, 8.3 hits/9, 1.7 HR's/ 9, 2.7 BB's/9, 9.8 K's/9, 3.7 K-BB ratio

Matt Boyd (3 years 24-26):

290 inn's, 1.50 WHIP, 10.2 hits/9, 1.6 HR's/ 9, 3.2 BB's/9, 7.3 K's/9, 2.3 K-BB ratio

Gio Gonzalez (4 years 22-25):

535 inn's, 1.44 WHIP, 8.3 hits/9, 0.9 HR's/ 9, 4.4 BB's/9, 8.6 K's/9, 1.9 K-BB ratio

(Gonzalez took off at age 26 pitching a whole lot better than this... but just for the comparison up to age 25... see above).

Cole Hamels (4 years 22-25):

737 inn's, 1.19 WHIP, 8.3 hits/9, 1.2 HR's/ 9, 2.3 BB's/9, 8.6 K's/9, 3.7 K-BB ratio

(Obviously, Hamels was a much better pitcher. But I think I can stop right here. Their peripherals are nearly IDENTICAL. Does that mean Skubal = Hamels? Most likely not. But he's trending in the right direction there...).

Think anyone can find a pitcher with closer peripherals than Hamels? Go for it. Let's see who can come up with closer numbers than those two...

[buddha]

man, matt boyd wasnt that good.  we totally should have traded him while we had the chance.

but avila didnt.  because he is bad at his job.