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2024 Presidential Election thread


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13 minutes ago, romad1 said:

hopeful trend

 

There was plenty of gnashing of teeth this weekend about what he actually meant about the "bloodbath" comment (ie. ackshully, it's about the auto industry)... but I think that sort of misses the point.... the reality is that it's about his rhetoric and the fact that there is a history of it being inflammatory and leading to violence. And moments like that remind people.

On another note, in the Evan Osnos profile of Biden's campaign in The New Yorker, they (particularly Mike Donilon) caught a lot of grief for saying that their campaign would be invoking themes around January 6th and democracy.... but this weekend is also a reminder that *Trump* will be invoking themes around January 6th too. Because of that, and because of the advantage that Biden/Dems have on issues surrounding it, it would be malpractice not to emphasize it at least to some degree while campaigning.

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32 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Joe's people are putting the right frame on this

 

yeah - I don't get the 'trim the sails' advice. Play hardball and go for the jugular all the way.  Today's elections are not Marquis of Queensberry affairs, esp going against Trump. Good Lord, when you have the massive advantage in facts and truth why would not hammer every point as hard as it can be hammered?

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55 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

yeah - I don't get the 'trim the sails' advice. Play hardball and go for the jugular all the way.  Today's elections are not Marquis of Queensberry affairs, esp going against Trump. Good Lord, when you have the massive advantage in facts and truth why would not hammer every point as hard as it can be hammered?

If people are not interested in facts and truth, then having facts and truth is not an advantage.  This is a huge problem in our country which perhaps overrides any other problem.  

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There is possible context for the bloodbath comment.  It's a common euphemism for perhaps the economy collapsing.  However, if he uses it in the same speech where he is asking people to honor insurrectionists, then the context gets lost. 

We've seem this game before.  Say something outrageous.  The libs get triggered.   MAGAs say that's not what he meant.  libs try to put some nuance into it.  MAGAs laugh at them.  Media normalizes Trump.  libs look silly even though they are right.  We lose this game every time.  

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19 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

If people are not interested in facts and truth, then having facts and truth is not an advantage.  

I can assure you that, especially in this situation, people are not interested in the truth. In fact, they are vehemently opposed to it.

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52 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

If people are not interested in facts and truth, then having facts and truth is not an advantage.  This is a huge problem in our country which perhaps overrides any other problem.  

yup - but that doesn't mean you don't make sure that you reach the people that are reachable. One of the postmortems of Hillary's loss was that they there were too willing to concede too many votes they could have won but decided weren't worth the effort to pursue. You really only know that was effective in retrospect.

Edited by gehringer_2
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36 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

There is possible context for the bloodbath comment.  It's a common euphemism for perhaps the economy collapsing.  However, if he uses it in the same speech where he is asking people to honor insurrectionists, then the context gets lost. 

We've seem this game before.  Say something outrageous.  The libs get triggered.   MAGAs say that's not what he meant.  libs try to put some nuance into it.  MAGAs laugh at them.  Media normalizes Trump.  libs look silly even though they are right.  We lose this game every time.  

Mistake is at step 5. No reason to give Trump credit for nuance. Ever. Responses like the one in Romad's post are the correct way to go. They may be learning.

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13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Mistake is at step 5. No reason to give Trump credit for nuance. Ever. Responses like the one in Romad's post are the correct way to go. They may be learning.

No, it's the democrats that use nuance.  Trump just uses BS.  

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I know my role around here is to push back against the "everything that happens is good for Trump" tendency, but the reaction from his allies suggests to me that they don't see this one as a win and that this broke through in a way that previous incendiary comments haven't. Like, they've come down hard trying to spin this one their way, they aren't laughing it off.

I would add that there's a lot of other content in that speech that didn't get as much attention (such as the section where he continues to trash on Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley) that could be potentially damaging at a time when he is struggling to retain support from marginal GOP voters who want him to go away and is struggling to raise money from GOP donors (both large and small $$$) 

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

yup - but that doesn't mean you don't make sure that you reach the people that are reachable. One of the postmortems of Hillary's loss was that they there were too willing to concede too many votes they could have won but decided weren't worth the effort to pursue. You really only know that was effective in retrospect.

Also it's a misunderstanding of the terrain upon which these elections are fought.... they aren't being fought over the die-hards, they are fought over swing voters and marginal voters in each party who are theoretically persuadable.

I don't necessarily think that the truth or facts don't matter to everyone in this cohort.

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1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

There is possible context for the bloodbath comment.  It's a common euphemism for perhaps the economy collapsing.  However, if he uses it in the same speech where he is asking people to honor insurrectionists, then the context gets lost. 

We've seem this game before.  Say something outrageous.  The libs get triggered.   MAGAs say that's not what he meant.  libs try to put some nuance into it.  MAGAs laugh at them.  Media normalizes Trump.  libs look silly even though they are right.  We lose this game every time.  

Did you leave out the last step: An actual bloodbath ensues? (Which we will be told is nothing more than tourists, or false flag antifa ops, or...)

We've lost the capacity for outrage. And we might pay the price.

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7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Also it's a misunderstanding of the terrain upon which these elections are fought.... they aren't being fought over the die-hards, they are fought over swing voters and marginal voters in each party who are theoretically persuadable.

I don't necessarily think that the truth or facts don't matter to everyone in this cohort.

and I will say it again - it's being fought 1st and foremost over turn out. The dems don't need to persuade a single soul that they don't like Trump. They only have to remind those that already think that way how important it is to vote the preference they already have.

Too much media focus on what might or might not change minds - that's not the relevant battle. It's about motivating those  whose minds you already have.

Edited by gehringer_2
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2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Too much focus on changing minds - that's not the relevant battle. It's about motivating those  whose minds you already have.

I think they have to do both, personally. Not an either/or proposition.

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16 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I think they have to do both, personally. Not an either/or proposition.

Motivating voters is more attainable than changing minds at this point. Do both, but emphasize motivation.

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28 minutes ago, Netnerd said:

Motivating voters is more attainable than changing minds at this point. Do both, but emphasize motivation.

In the short term, I agree. 

In the long term, you always need to be adding.

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53 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Also it's a misunderstanding of the terrain upon which these elections are fought.... they aren't being fought over the die-hards, they are fought over swing voters and marginal voters in each party who are theoretically persuadable.

I don't necessarily think that the truth or facts don't matter to everyone in this cohort.

Why does this exact point constantly get IGNORED???

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55 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Also it's a misunderstanding of the terrain upon which these elections are fought.... they aren't being fought over the die-hards, they are fought over swing voters and marginal voters in each party who are theoretically persuadable.

I don't necessarily think that the truth or facts don't matter to everyone in this cohort.

Let me rephrase my prior post:

30% of this country is registered Republicans. Mostly dedicated to voting their party.

35% of this country is registered Democrats. Mostly dedicated to voting their party.

35% of this country is INDEPENDENTS.

So, who are the swing voters in this country? Who could vote either way? Who is persuadable, or needs to be persuaded?

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1 hour ago, Netnerd said:

Motivating voters is more attainable than changing minds at this point. Do both, but emphasize motivation.

Yes, because anybody (about 40% of America apparently) who hasn't figured out Trump by now is a lost cause.  

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I’m resigned to the fact that there’s nothing more that can be done to motivate people.  I don’t know what more can be said or shown or expressed.  The country is at a dangerous crossroads and the people have the power to change it just by voting. It’s a simple task and easily attainable.  No blood has to be shed. No tricks.  Just go vote on Election Day for not Donald Trump and not republicans and our country survives. 

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8 minutes ago, oblong said:

 Just go vote on Election Day for not Donald Trump and not republicans and our country survives. 

We're going to survive regardless, but your point stands in terms of getting back towards a normal.  If Trump was 10 years younger and not looking stupid old himself, i'd be more concerned, but he won't be around long, rather he wins or not.  The republican party is already destroying themselves.  A Trump win only temporarily delays it.

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