On the Bright Side: 2023 MLB Draft

[LongLiveMaroth]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

Taking pitcher's risks into account, and the added value of position players > pitchers...

For the 1st round only... I don't think I would select a pitcher over a position player if they were tied in Org evaluations. Extending that... I don't think even a 10% better pitcher overcomes injury risk or daily playing value risk... 

So... IMHO: A 1st round pitcher would have to be significantly better than a position player for me to make the pitcher that selection. I don't think Jobe qualifies as that over Mayer. But I don't know how to quantify that, exactly. If Jobe somehow turns into Clemens and Mayer into Alex Rodriguez or Derek Jeter (just dart-boarding), who has the higher value?

In hindsight it's easy to say that Verlander was the worthy #2 selection. At the end of their careers maybe the same will be said of Jobe.

I'm glad I don't have to make these decisions.

But my point remains, 1st round only (after that just take BPA and don't worry pitcher versus position (can't draft ZERO pitchers... right?)): there are two pitcher's risks that should drop them in evaluations against position players: everyday playing value (pitchers lose) and injury risk. So selecting a pitcher in the 1st has to mean he is CLEARLY head and shoulders (however that gets defined) then the next position player....

IMHO.

Oh I completely agree, I am generally more of a proponent of selecting a position player over a pitcher in the 1st round especially early but I wouldn't want the org to box itself in to say no way we would do that. Obviously, the Jobe selection is fresh in everyone's mind and honestly, I get it I just wouldn't write off taking a pitcher in the top 5 if you feel he is a better value.

[RatkoVarda]

right now, LSU might have top 2 picks: Crews is still batting over .500 and Skenes is having a Mize-like season.

[Tenacious D]

4 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Oh I completely agree, I am generally more of a proponent of selecting a position player over a pitcher in the 1st round especially early but I wouldn't want the org to box itself in to say no way we would do that. Obviously, the Jobe selection is fresh in everyone's mind and honestly, I get it I just wouldn't write off taking a pitcher in the top 5 if you feel he is a better value.

I would.  This franchise has squandered the majority of its 1st round picks during our six year tank/rebuild.  I don’t think we have the luxury of taking on the additional risk that comes with a pitcher. Perhaps if we were in a different place.

[tiger2022]

Crawford, Hill, Burrows, Manning, Faedo, Mize, Greene, Torkelson, Jobe, Jung.  Those are the first picks from the last 10 drafts.    That is a rough group (Jobe and Jung--too early to tell).

For whatever reason, none of these guys have worked out so far.  Pitchers are so injury prone and nowadays they only pitch 5 innings anyway.  No more first basemen...they grow on trees.  I think both positions are bad values.  I would prefer to just pick shortstops or outfielders with the first pick. 

[Tenacious D]

15 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

Crawford, Hill, Burrows, Manning, Faedo, Mize, Greene, Torkelson, Jobe, Jung.  Those are the first picks from the last 10 drafts.    That is a rough group (Jobe and Jung--too early to tell).

For whatever reason, none of these guys have worked out so far.  Pitchers are so injury prone and nowadays they only pitch 5 innings anyway.  No more first basemen...they grow on trees.  I think both positions are bad values.  I would prefer to just pick shortstops or outfielders with the first pick. 

When your strategy is to tank in order to be in position to draft high, this is incredibly dismal.  Sure, some bad luck and still a few guys you can be hopeful about, but a long stretch without any consistent contributors.

[Shinzaki]

I would be more comfortable with a college arm rather than a HS arm in the first...unless there's evidence to suggest he's been abused like Kenny Baugh.  Would prefer a bat though.

[Tigermojo]

First mock draft:

https://www.mlb.com/tigers/news/first-mlb-mock-draft-2023?t=mlb-draft-coverage

3. Tigers: Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida (No. 3)
Langford's .403/.543/.784 season has been overshadowed by Southeastern Conference rival Crews. He has proven himself at the college level, while high schoolers Jenkins and Clark offer the advantages of hitting left-handed and more realistically projecting as center fielders.

[RandyMarsh]

I guess I will take offense where ever I can get it but it would be typical of this organization to draft a guy that projects as a corner OF or infielder and/or has question marks about his defense in general. Better than a HS arm though. 

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

I guess I will take offense where ever I can get it but it would be typical of this organization to draft a guy that projects as a corner OF or infielder and/or has question marks about his defense in general. Better than a HS arm though. 

 

Langford is a solid defender, likely with the speed for center, he just hasn't played there much. Not drafting him for defense, though, premium bat, same with Crews. If you want defense, draft C!ark.

[CMRivdogs]

Wondering what effect his arm injury will have on his status. The couple of stories I've seen seem tightlipped about the nature of the injury and surgery 

[RatkoVarda]

thrilled they jumped up to 3, but it looks like they will miss out on getting one of the 2 LSU guys, who are both having historically great seasons.

[mtutiger]

39 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

thrilled they jumped up to 3, but it looks like they will miss out on getting one of the 2 LSU guys, who are both having historically great seasons.

IDK, I think I'm OK with them missing on Skenes because, on one hand, they should take him if he's available but, on the other hand, he's a pitcher and pitchers in this org tend to have bad things happen to them lol

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

Wondering what effect his arm injury will have on his status. The couple of stories I've seen seem tightlipped about the nature of the injury and surgery 

It was a "groin" injury, he only missed 7 games, and seems to be playing very well without any issues.

[Tiger337]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

IDK, I think I'm OK with them missing on Skenes because, on one hand, they should take him if he's available but, on the other hand, he's a pitcher and pitchers in this org tend to have bad things happen to them lol

Pitchers, in general, tend to have bad things happen to them.  

[Longgone]

58 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

thrilled they jumped up to 3, but it looks like they will miss out on getting one of the 2 LSU guys, who are both having historically great seasons.

Not much to choose between Crews and Langford. Any of the top 5 are premium choices. 

[chasfh]

54 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Pitchers, in general, tend to have bad things happen to them.  

Deaden the ball, and pitchers will have less bad things happen to them.

[Shinzaki]

Law has his updated top 50 out...Crews...Skenes and Langford are the top 3.  I would love it if we got any of those guys

Skenes is...in his view...comparable to the bestest college pitching prospects of the last few decades, including one Jusin Verlander

[Jim Cowan]

Picking this high, I want a hitter.  I don't want to waste it on a pitcher.

[Tigeraholic1]

Taking a pitcher in the 1st rd is the same as the Lions taking a TE in the 1st at this point.

[Jim Cowan]

57 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Taking a pitcher in the 1st rd is the same as the Lions taking a TE in the 1st at this point.

And then doing it 30 years in a row.

[RandyMarsh]

Especially taking one now with how much teams limit their SP's workload. I mean even 10 years ago you could atleast count on your "ace" taking you through 7 most nights barring an off night, nowadays teams are so cautious with even the best pitchers they rarely let them go past 6 unless they are absolutely dominating. So at best you're looking at maybe 200 innings pitched now, unless you pitch like prime Pedro there is only so much value that can provide over the course of the season with that few innings.

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Especially taking one now with how much teams limit their SP's workload. I mean even 10 years ago you could atleast count on your "ace" taking you through 7 most nights barring an off night, nowadays teams are so cautious with even the best pitchers they rarely let them go past 6 unless they are absolutely dominating. So at best you're looking at maybe 200 innings pitched now, unless you pitch like prime Pedro there is only so much value that can provide over the course of the season with that few innings.

Their draft value surely has to decline for those reasons.  It's like 40 years ago using the first pick on Earl Campbell or George Rogers, no one would do that today.

[Tigeraholic1]

It is a safer bet and investment signing a pitching free agent who has a proven track record. If it doesn’t work out you know you are making a 3-4 year gamble and you can move on.

Edited May 6, 2023 by Tigeraholic1

[alex]

29 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

It is a safer bet and investment signing a pitching free agent who has a proven track record. If it doesn’t work out you know you are making a 3-4 year gamble and you can move on.

Seems the Cubs went more this route for their contention run and WS title during 2016+/- years. It makes sense and we already have several young 'high draft pick' SP choices on the current roster -  Now, can we keep them healthy to get 2 of 3-4 for several years at 175 IP🤔.

[Tiger337]

On 4/11/2023 at 10:03 AM, LongLiveMaroth said:

Oh I completely agree, I am generally more of a proponent of selecting a position player over a pitcher in the 1st round especially early but I wouldn't want the org to box itself in to say no way we would do that. Obviously, the Jobe selection is fresh in everyone's mind and honestly, I get it I just wouldn't write off taking a pitcher in the top 5 if you feel he is a better value.

Nothing is ever 100%.  If there is a great pitcher available and no strong position players around at your pick, then go with the pitcher.  However, you can usually get a talented position player with the 3rd pick and that appears to be the case this year.