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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in an interview with CNN of what could happen if Bakhmut falls to Russian forces.

"We understand that after Bakhmut, (Russian forces) could go further" and attack nearby cities in the Donetsk region, he said.

"They could go to Kramatorsk, they could go to Sloviansk, it would be an open road for the Russians after Bakhmut to other towns in Ukraine, in the Donetsk direction," Zelensky said in an interview set to air Wednesday.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told military officials during a televised meeting on Tuesday that taking control of the city would allow for "further offensive operations"

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28 minutes ago, pfife said:

Congrats on the pending Russian victories chief 

I’m not pro-Russian. I’m anti-blank check for a corrupt Ukraine.

If anyone should be paying more it should be Germany and the rest of Europe. Instead they fuel the Russian war machine buying up gas and oil.

It benefits neither side to continue this war. Hopefully, there is a negotiated peace that both sides can live with.

Also, no one has any idea how this will end. To many variables, currently seems like stalemate. But edge to Russia as they are advancing. Ukraine is also burning through shells with no immediate replacement. No one has a clue about the Russian shell situation.

Edited by digitalpigsmuggler
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6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Report of a large scale missile strike heading into Ukraine tonight. Probably a sign that Bakhmut has bogged down for Russian forces.

I believe Ukraine is currently or soon to be in possession of 24 Challengers and 24 Leopards. As well as all the APC's and IFV's and light tanks that have already been sent. They are planning their counter-offensives right now.

They've had skeleton forces in Bakhmut and other frontline cities, like Vuhledar...

And the Russians are still incapable of taking anything.

The Russians have lost roughly 20-24,000 forces (in Bakhmut), the Ukrainians roughly 5,000 casualties. 2,000 Ukrainians still in Bakhmut, holding off the Russian hordes.

When the Ukrainians counter-attack, they most likely will sweep through Kherson (east of the Dnieper) and Zaphorizhia Oblasts to the Azov Sea, cutting off Russia's land bridge to Crimea.

But they are sending some forces early to Bakhmut, in order to reinforce. Tactical decision and they aren't ready for a full counterattack just yet. And I don't think sweeping east through Donetsk is their first priority. They just want to hold the line there and engage Russian forces to prevent them from manning the south.

The Russians are sending missiles because they are incapable of any military gains in Ukraine.

Just for some perspective and to repudiate the Russian Propaganda that's been floating around in this thread lately...

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13 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

I’m not pro-Russian. I’m anti-blank check for a corrupt Ukraine.

If anyone should be paying more it should be Germany and the rest of Europe. Instead they fuel the Russian war machine buying up gas and oil.

It benefits neither side to continue this war. Hopefully, there is a negotiated peace that both sides can live with.

Also, no one has any idea how this will end. To many variables, currently seems like stalemate.

Yes and no. There are a lot of critical variables but they are mostly not on the battlefield at this point, they are in Washington Paris, London and Berlin. The Ukrainians will go as far as US/EURO arm them to go. If the US had sent ATACM and started the Ukrainians training on F16s a year ago, the Russians would have already lost or maybe started WWIII.

It can be argued that to have gone too fast would have sent Russia over the nuclear edge, it can be argued the Western powers are ultimately cynical and would just as soon see the Ukrainains bleed Russia out as far as possble by moving so incrementally.

But Russia cannot win this based on any choices it makes. It will emerge with exactly whatever status NATO decides the end point is going to be. And granted, *that* is an open question.

Edited by gehringer_2
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10 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

... Also, no one has any idea how this will end. To many variables, currently seems like stalemate. But edge to Russia as they are advancing. Ukraine is also burning through shells with no immediate replacement. No one has a clue about the Russian shell situation.

I think you are playing checkers.

If you want to understand this, you need to learn to play chess.

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I think there will be a point where the Verdun that is Bakhmut will mean that it actually becomes a Verdun as in metaphor for the entire resilience of the nation.   This was where Petain made his name in WWI.  Then he became a turncoat Nazi symp for the Vichy government.  

I think it was bleeding 7-1 Russian dead to Ukrainian dead for a while.  That probably can't go on forever. 

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3 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I think you are playing checkers.

If you want to understand this, you need to learn to play chess.

Well both sides are playing the lose over 100,000 people game right now. 
Russia has a larger population.

For all the tank talk, they have had limited success in the war so far. We have seen zero evidence Ukraine can defeat a hardened Russian defense line. 
 

No one knows how China will react if Ukraine does start taking back contested territory. Nor the Russian reaction. If it’s a meat grinder, Russia has more meat for the grinder. 
 

While Ukraine is very careful presenting an image to the west, by account their citizens are war weary. As are Russians.

The only winner is China. The west is having to spend billions, spend military capital, and fund Russia via buying Russian gas. Russia obviously lost vast blood and treasure.  China is buying discounted Russian oil and probably selling black market weapons to Ukraine that can’t be traced back. 
 

Ultimately it comes back to logistics. Will Russia fully mobilize? What would the West response be? Interior conditions in Russia? Western unity? Western will to keep sanctions? Western ability to keep sending surplus weapons? etc etc. 

 

Edited by digitalpigsmuggler
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1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Yeah, imagine if you could trade a piece of America for peace but knew that the innocent people on that slice of land would be subject to horrors.  Well, that wouldn't sit well with those who have integrity. 

Not the same situation. Crimea is pro-Russian. There's also the situation where America has the strongest military in the world, Ukraine does not.

 

Edited by digitalpigsmuggler
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3 hours ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

Not the same situation. Crimea is pro-Russian. There's also the situation where America has the strongest military in the world, Ukraine does not.

 

I'd argued long before the war started that the history of Crimea was more complex than the Ukraine mainland. If Putin had played a civilized hand instead of immediately going to war, maybe a better outcome could have been reached, but at this point Russia has pretty much forfeited any consideration of civility toward its preferences by its demonstration of a preference for barbarity.

Edited by gehringer_2
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4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'd argued long before the war started that the history of Crimea was more complex than the Ukraine mainland. If Putin had played a civilized hand instead of immediately going to war, maybe a better outcome could have been reached, but at this point Russia has pretty much forfeited any consideration of civility toward its preferences by its demonstration of a preference for barbarity.

Yeah, the argument that Ukraine can't have Crimea is similar to the argument that Russia can't have Kaliningrad.  Historically, that land was Prussia until 1945.   So?  I doubt Germany gets it back.  Maybe it becomes its own Polish territory after the post war settlement. 

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