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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


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On 3/21/2023 at 12:11 PM, digitalpigsmuggler said:

"...the Russian military and Wagner Group are a spent force," D'Anieri said. "They can't engage in offensive operations for the next couple of months and that's because they've lost so many resources in and around Bakhmut."

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4 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

"...the Russian military and Wagner Group are a spent force," D'Anieri said. "They can't engage in offensive operations for the next couple of months and that's because they've lost so many resources in and around Bakhmut."

That's what they want you to believe.....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/03/22/the-russians-are-pulling-70-year-old-t-55-tanks-out-of-storage/?sh=6bffdee86593&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainTwitter&utm_source=ForbesMainTwitter

I saw a person on twitter, no idea how random they may be, that said Russia has a ton of 100mm ammo and these can utilize them.  The only thing they thought is maybe they are going to try and utilize these for artillery.  That still sounds like a horrible idea, but I guess better than using them to go up against other tanks. (if true at all)

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12 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

That's what they want you to believe.....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/03/22/the-russians-are-pulling-70-year-old-t-55-tanks-out-of-storage/?sh=6bffdee86593&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainTwitter&utm_source=ForbesMainTwitter

I saw a person on twitter, no idea how random they may be, that said Russia has a ton of 100mm ammo and these can utilize them.  The only thing they thought is maybe they are going to try and utilize these for artillery.  That still sounds like a horrible idea, but I guess better than using them to go up against other tanks. (if true at all)

Nothing built in that era is actually going to function on the battlefield unless it got regular corrosion protection maintenance work for the last 70 yrs. Who thinks that was likely? I imagine they will end up with about a 10% recovery rate cobbling together the few working pieces into complete workable units. And they will still be worth little as weaponry. And of course if all that matching ammo is just as old? CEP will be so large they will have no idea where each successive shell is going to land. That's still useful for beating up civilians in towns, but has little value in the battle space.

Edited by gehringer_2
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20 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Nothing built in that era is actually going to function on the battlefield unless it got regular corrosion protection maintenance work for the last 70 yrs. Who thinks that was likely? I imagine they will end up with about a 10% recovery rate cobbling together the few working pieces into complete workable units. And they will still be worth little as weaponry. And of course if all that matching ammo is just as old? CEP will be so large they will have no idea where each successive shell is going to land. That's still useful for beating up civilians in towns, but has little value in the battle space.

You know if Russia were in a last ditch battle for survival I might think they could muster some amazing performance.  Trying to be the baddies in another person's country -- at gunpoint -- next to felons.  Yeah, I'm not seeing any improvement in Russian battlefield performance.   Now, throw in the fact that their industrial base is a joke and they can't even pay to keep their vaunted space launch capability at Baikanur (Kazakhstan is foreclosing on stuff Russia has defaulted on at the space station there).  

Russia is screwed.  Now, throw in the fact that the best or near best western gear is coming.  It will have modern C4ISR systems not handheld motorola bricks but actual tactical communications gear.  It will have depleted uranium shells.  It will have Mirage 2000, F-16s, Patriots backing it up.  Yeah,  I'm liking Ukraine's chance of recapturing Crimea.

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Now, you can sneer that its the Daily Mail.  This is an awesome video.

I see F-16s, F-18s, and Typhoons.   Pretty mfing BAD ASS!  Air Power for the win!

I gather that's Italy, Spain and Romanian acft.  And they are escorting the muther of global airpower.

Edited by romad1
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3 hours ago, romad1 said:

...  Russia is screwed...

Baikanur is an excellent example of that. Russia is losing its main Space Launch pad. I don't think they have the Kamchatka launch pad working yet either, so they may also be losing their ONLY space launch pad.

Another good example of just how screwed Russia is... is Xi's visit. It was basically: "Thank you for giving me everything I wanted Vlad... oh, and I'm giving you NOTHING that you wanted, except a few words."

Russia is now officially a vassal state of China. A gas station at China's preferred price. AND Vlad gave western oil and gas equipment left in Siberia, to China. AND Vlad invited China IN to Siberia to direct agricultural directions/ investments there.

I mean... does Vlad even realize he invited a wolf into his chicken house?

The desperate moves of a drowning man and country, I guess, is the answer to all of this...

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28 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Baikanur is an excellent example of that. Russia is losing its main Space Launch pad. I don't think they have the Kamchatka launch pad working yet either, so they may also be losing their ONLY space launch pad.

Another good example of just how screwed Russia is... is Xi's visit. It was basically: "Thank you for giving me everything I wanted Vlad... oh, and I'm giving you NOTHING that you wanted, except a few words."

Russia is now officially a vassal state of China. A gas station at China's preferred price. AND Vlad gave western oil and gas equipment left in Siberia, to China. AND Vlad invited China IN to Siberia to direct agricultural directions/ investments there.

I mean... does Vlad even realize he invited a wolf into his chicken house?

The desperate moves of a drowning man and country, I guess, is the answer to all of this...

And launching from Kamchatka will suck anyway - latitude is way north of optimal.

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

And launching from Kamchatka will suck anyway - latitude is way north of optimal.

My mistake... it's in Amur Oblast, near the border with China and not in Kamchatka. I don't know why Kamchatka stuck in my head... probably Risk (hah!).

Vostochny Cosmodrome... has actually been in service and had 10 of 11 successful launches there, since 2016. I guess I haven't been paying attention lately... Something must have distracted me since about, oh, say... 2016. (Can't think of what that would be...). Last I remember Putin was firing everyone there because of corruption and construction delays... but that must have been quite awhile ago and, as I said... I lost track...

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4 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

My mistake... it's in Amur Oblast, near the border with China and not in Kamchatka. I don't know why Kamchatka stuck in my head... probably Risk (hah!).

Vostochny Cosmodrome... has actually been in service and had 10 of 11 successful launches there, since 2016. I guess I haven't been paying attention lately... Something must have distracted me since about, oh, say... 2016. (Can't think of what that would be...). Last I remember Putin was firing everyone there because of corruption and construction delays... but that must have been quite awhile ago and, as I said... I lost track...

Polar launches are a thing for certain necessities.  But, the mid latitudes are considered better for most stuff.   I doubt Europe or the big companies (except for Spacex) goes back to using Baikanur anytime soon.

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