2023 NFL Draft Thread

[buddha]

1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Do you think Cardinal's scenario could also be true though that there is a greater than 50% chance 3 QBs are taken in the top 5?

i dont know, maybe.  them and the bears arent taking qbs.  they'll probably want one of the two elite talents in the draft if they consider them elite.

the bears really have nothing and are all in on carter, imo.  the next buckner.  their coach is from indy and you'd think he wants that guy in the middle of his defense.  i still think that if you want carter, you have to get in front of the bears.

anderson or tyree wilson are slated for arizona and seattle, imo.

you never know, obviously.  but i think the lions are in a bad spot if they want one of the top 2 defenders.  we shall see.  some team may like wilson more because of his physical measurements.

[1984Echoes]

44 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Do you think Cardinal's scenario could also be true though that there is a greater than 50% chance 3 QBs are taken in the top 5?

If Anderson & Carter go in the top 5, as they should based on talent alone...

Then the choice is between Murphy, Wilson, Christian Gonzalez (if he's the best CB), or Bijan Robinson (again, based on talent alone). 

So... how do we rank those 4?

And to answer your question: I think yes on the 3 QB's. But that still doesn't change the fact that Carter & Anderson are top 5 guys, and the others are the "best of the rest". If only two QB's are taken in the top 5, then there is still the choice of whoever falls to us.

But at least at this point, I highly doubt either of those two slip out of the top 5. On the other hand...:

If it's Carter, I'm with buddha and thinking Campbell/ Holmes and Co. will have taken him off the Lions Board if he doesn't love the game enough and won't even consider him... although maybe that means a trade down opportunity.

If it's Anderson... well, I have EXTREME difficulty in believing that he'll be the guy who falls, even if 3 QB's are in the top 5. But if it is him, well... no-brainer.

[MichiganCardinal]

Tyree Wilson is setup perfectly for a Travon Walker like jump. Down to the same initials. His physical measureables that the analytics fanatics drool over are better than either Anderson or Carter, Anderson just had a "down year" (compared to his phenomenal 2021 at least), and Carter has the mysterious "character concerns".

If the top three QBs do go in the top five, all you need is one player not named Carter or Anderson (could be Wilson, could be Skoronski, could even be Bijan Robinson) to jump them and all of a sudden a perfect fit has fallen into your lap, just like Sewell did when the Bengals took Chase and Hutch did when the Jags took Walker.

[buddha]

2 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Tyree Wilson is setup perfectly for a Travon Walker like jump. Down to the same initials. His physical measureables that the analytics fanatics drool over are better than either Anderson or Carter, Anderson just had a "down year" (compared to his phenomenal 2021 at least), and Carter has the mysterious "character concerns".

If the top three QBs do go in the top five, all you need is one player not named Carter or Anderson (could be Wilson, could be Skoronski, could even be Bijan Robinson) to jump them and all of a sudden a perfect fit has fallen into your lap, just like Sewell did when the Bengals took Chase and Hutch did when the Jags took Walker.

wilson is the one guy i can see rising into the top 5.

i can see levis dropping out of the top 5.

[MichiganCardinal]

2 hours ago, buddha said:

wilson is the one guy i can see rising into the top 5.

i can see levis dropping out of the top 5.

I could see a world in which the Cardinals absolutely fall in love with Bijan Robinson. I forgot that Saquon was taken #2 overall, I knew it was high but sheesh.

Otherwise though, I agree. I think Levis is the kind of guy that some teams in the top five could be all about, while others would cross out.

[1984Echoes]

Who was discussing Hendon Hooker earlier?

I'm warming to him with one of our 2nd round picks...

[buddha]

1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I could see a world in which the Cardinals absolutely fall in love with Bijan Robinson. I forgot that Saquon was taken #2 overall, I knew it was high but sheesh.

Otherwise though, I agree. I think Levis is the kind of guy that some teams in the top five could be all about, while others would cross out.

the cards also need defensive linemen.  i doubt they pass on one.

but you never know what theyre going to do.

[Motown Bombers]

I would rather waste a pick on Richardson than a 25 year old QB coming off a major injury. 

[MichiganCardinal]

24 minutes ago, buddha said:

the cards also need defensive linemen.  i doubt they pass on one.

but you never know what theyre going to do.

Cards should probably put out the fires in their ownership and front office and find a head coach willing to work with their QB before thinking about the draft anyway.

[MichiganCardinal]

8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I would rather waste a pick on Richardson than a 25 year old QB coming off a major injury. 

If Holmes picks either of them, I won't immediately categorize it as a waste. He's earned at least that much.

Hooker is at least somewhat intriguing to me because he's going to fall like a rock. I know 1984 said 2nd round, I don't think I would be interested there. Too many good corners and linebackers are likely going to be immediate plug-and-play options in the 2nd round. I think Hooker may be there in the 3rd/4th round or even later though. A lot of teams need immediate answers at QB, and a lot will cross him off for injury concerns and age. Had he not torn his ACL though, I think he's talked about in the Levis/Richardson tier 1B of QBs this year. He had a really good year for Tennessee and was an impressive dual-threat QB.

If he's there at 81, or into the 4th Round, or at 149 or later, I think he's worth consideration alongside the others on the board. He'd be QB3 in 2023 and would be a NFI out of camp (like Jamo), maybe for the whole season. If he ends up sucking as the, you roll with Goff like nothing happened and he's just a mid to later round bust, which isn't ideal, but also isn't the end of the world.

[1984Echoes]

I think someone is going to take a shot in the 2nd or 3rd round with him.

I certainly don't believe he falls all the way to the 5th.

I'm not certain about CB's... there will be a heavy run on them in the 1st and early 2nd. Safeties, LB'ers and RB's... yes. But I'm tossing in Hooker as, I think he is the one guy who can develop into a more than competent backup, and possibly even into a Jalen Hurts type. I don't care that he's 25, and I don't care that he basically will take a redshirt year next year. Fine, he can learn behind Goff and whatever veteran we sign to be #2 behind Goff in 2023. He takes over as backup by the end of next season, or if not, in 2024. If he pushes Goff out of a job (2024/2025?) more power to him, and if he doesn't, well, we'll cross that bridge when we get there...

But I'm not opposed to drafting him. And if Holmes agrees... then I'm not going to squawk and... I'll hope for the best.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I'm completely against using anything other than one of our first round picks or a late round pick on a QB. To me, either we're picking one of Young, Stroud, or Levis in the first or we're not taking a QB at all until sometime after the fourth round.

I get that Jalen Hurts was a second round selection and now he's leading his team to a Super Bowl. But Hurts is by far the exception, not the rule. Here are a list of other second round QBs taken since the year 2000. Other than Derek Carr (and Hurts) there is no one on this list I would want starting on the Lions. And in the case of Carr, he's no better than Goff. We have a unique opportunity to make a hugh, positive impact on our roster with four picks in the first two rounds. I'm not burning one on a QB if Goff is our long term starter and the success rate of that person panning out is incredibly low.

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Mr.TaterSalad

[1984Echoes]

20 hours ago, buddha said:

wilson is the one guy i can see rising into the top 5.

i can see levis dropping out of the top 5.

I had a fever dream that 3 defenders and 2 QB's went in the top 5...

And Carolina, desperate, traded their 1st, two 2nds, and 3rd rounder in 2023 to move up from #10 to #6 so they could select Will Levis.

I woke up in a sweat...

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I'm completely against using anything other than one of our first round picks or a late round pick on a QB. To me, either we're picking one of Young, Stroud, or Levis in the first or we're not taking a QB at all until sometime after the fourth round.

I get that Jalen Hurts was a second round selection and now he's leading his team to a Super Bowl. But Hurts is by far the exception, not the rule. Here are a list of other second round QBs taken since the year 2000. Other than Derek Carr (and Hurts) there is no one on this list I would want starting on the Lions. And in the case of Carr, he's no better than Goff. We have a unique opportunity to make a hugh, positive impact on our roster with four picks in the first two rounds. I'm not burning one on a QB if Goff is our long term starter and the success rate of that person panning out is incredibly low.

 

Huh?

What?

I would have no issue whatsoever if we drafted Jalen Hurts, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith (even as he ends up a backup), and maybe even Henne (who would definitely end up as a backup).

Geno probably could have turned into a much better, earlier better, starting QB if he hadn't gone to the Jets, who F'd him big-time.

And as for team building...

I trust in Holmes.

[Motown Bombers]

Why in the world would we want to draft a worse QB than Goff with one of our high picks? The Lions could literally just sign about everyone of those QBs. 

[KL2]

5 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Huh?

What?

I would have no issue whatsoever if we drafted Jalen Hurts, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith (even as he ends up a backup), and maybe even Henne (who would definitely end up as a backup).

Geno probably could have turned into a much better, earlier better, starting QB if he hadn't gone to the Jets, who F'd him big-time.

And as for team building...

I trust in Holmes.

Of course there are exceptions. Nobody is saying differently.

But there's been multiple studies on this. The vast majority of 2nd and 3rd round qb never amount to anything. More than any other positions more than other rounds.

To think you're gonna draft the next jimmy g when the history says that is unlikely is fools good. To do so is trying to be the smartest guy in the room. When you do that it often gets you in trouble, see reference Quinn, bob.

Just draft a qb in round 1 I'd you need it. If you have a guy then take one in round 6 and hope to get lucky. There is little difference between a round 3 qb and a round 7 guy. At least by taking another player earlier you at least get special teams/a few years backup put of em.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

5 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Why in the world would we want to draft a worse QB than Goff with one of our high picks? The Lions could literally just sign about everyone of those QBs. 

This. A second round pick has to be a starting player on the team. That's the expectation when you pick a guy that early in the draft. If the Lions want a suitable backup for Goff they have had every opportunity to go out and sign a big name veteran like Andy Dalton or Baker Mayfield and they haven't. The guy we're drafting in the second round though needs to be a starter on this team, not someone's long-term backup.

[1984Echoes]

Nope.

I'm thinking Hendon Hooker falls to the 2nd or 3rd round.

I'm thinking Hendon Hooker will turn into a Jalen Hurts.

If Holmes selects him... I'm on board.

If we miss out or choose different players, I move on.

[1984Echoes]

But that apparently is just me.

Don't care.

[Longgone]

23 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Nope.

I'm thinking Hendon Hooker falls to the 2nd or 3rd round.

I'm thinking Hendon Hooker will turn into a Jalen Hurts.

Based on what? Hurts was 21 and still on a developmental curve when he came into the league. If Hooker had that type of ceiling he would have realized it by now and not be knocking around in college for six years.

[Jason_R]

Also, when the Eagles drafted Hurts they seem to have suspected what the league has now found out about Carson Wentz.

By contrast, Brad Holmes knew when he traded for Jared Goff what the league has just remembered about him. He's a pretty good NFL QB.

If Holmes goes off script (the script being to pick the two best defensive players available at 6 and 18) I would be OK if it was Bijan Robinson at 18. With a full season of Jaymo, another explosive player in the backfield to step in when Swift is (inevitably) injured, and Ben Johnson back, this offense would be insane.

[buddha]

hendon hooker will likely be there in the 5th or 6th round if you want him.

he's old, hurt, and wasnt a huge prospect to begin with.

[NYLion]

On 2/4/2023 at 2:56 PM, MichiganCardinal said:

Tyree Wilson is setup perfectly for a Travon Walker like jump. Down to the same initials. His physical measureables that the analytics fanatics drool over are better than either Anderson or Carter, Anderson just had a "down year" (compared to his phenomenal 2021 at least), and Carter has the mysterious "character concerns".

If the top three QBs do go in the top five, all you need is one player not named Carter or Anderson (could be Wilson, could be Skoronski, could even be Bijan Robinson) to jump them and all of a sudden a perfect fit has fallen into your lap, just like Sewell did when the Bengals took Chase and Hutch did when the Jags took Walker.

I see that too. He has the measurables and is exactly the type of athlete that will crush the combine and open up some eyes. His production was far more impressive than Walker's too on a defense where he was more of the focal point.

Not saying that he's a better prospect than Walker necessarily but I could see him being a real riser in the draft process and, for me, is the #1 option for the Lions if the Anderson and Carter are gone based on upside. Bijan Robinson would be #2 for the same reason, upside. I'm just not enamored enough with any of the CBs to take one at 6 and with this being such a deep CB class (arguably the deepest position in this draft), the Lions should get a good one at 18 regardless.

[MichiganCardinal]

I don't think the Lions draft a corner in the 1st round unless they see a Sauce Gardner type. There are just so many available that there will be very good ones still there in the 2nd and 3rd round, who would go in the 1st in a normal year. Similar to when the Lions waited on a WR two years ago, and wound up with ASB.

[Motown Bombers]

I keep thinking back to Holmes first draft and Sheila asking Holmes when they were going to draft a receiver and Holmes was like don't worry I got this and drafted one of the best receivers in the draft in the 4th round. I could see something similar happening.