gehringer_2 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 OK, McCarthy is toast - (my earlier post didn't age too well!) no movement toward him at all. I have to think Jim Jordan would self-immolate as Speaker, but It could be entertaining... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, oblong said: I think Jordan will eventually get it. Can Jordan win enough moderate members? Like the Brian Fitzpatrick / Don Bacon set? Thats why I think Scalise would be the most likely to get it... he seems best position to bridge the gap between the nuts and the moderate / Main Street types. Edited January 3, 2023 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: Can Jordan win enough moderate members? Like the Brian Fitzpatrick / Don Bacon set? I don't know. I don't know how any of them can win enough of the flanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Interesting.... Would a play like this open the door for someone like Scalise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 minute ago, oblong said: I don't know. I don't know how any of them can win enough of the flanks. There's someone in that party that probably can, but I dont think it's Jim Jordan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 minute ago, oblong said: I don't know. I don't know how any of them can win enough of the flanks. The obvious route is the majority of the GOP offer something to the Dems to get enough of them on board to disenfranchise the right side radicals, but I don't think the center of the House GOP conference is still moderate enough to even envision that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: Would a play like this open the door for someone like Scalise? David Duke without the baggage? https://www.google.com/amp/s/theweek.com/speedreads/440133/steve-scalise-reportedly-said-like-david-duke-without-baggage%3famp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: Lame. Do your jobs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Lame. Do your jobs but wouldn't that still stick it to them by making them have a weak speaker? Then he can deal with them. If I were them I would argue that I am doing my job but the other side is a shit show and we have to get going. Until there's a speaker then nothing happens. Having a weak GOP majority in some ways is better for Dems going into '24. Nothing will get done and they have the power so they take the blame. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerbomb13 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Can Jordan win enough moderate members? Like the Brian Fitzpatrick / Don Bacon set? Thats why I think Scalise would be the most likely to get it... he seems best position to bridge the gap between the nuts and the moderate / Main Street types. I think this is most likely scenario. Not Jefferies. I know Gaetz opened his mouth and said he'd vote for Hakeem over McCarthy but... like G2 said, the "spite vote" if it ever went that way would last about 2 seconds before they changed their minds again. Fun to specualte on this because it would be wild but... zero likelihood chance of happening. The Fascist Caucus holding out for Jordan and actually getting him as Speaker? I don't think that's very likely either. 5% chance. Maybe not even that. McCarthy waiting the FC out and gaining his coveted speakership? For awhile I thought he might bargain his way to it... had him at a 95-98% chance of doing so. We'll see how firm the Fascist Caucus holds onto their position here... I would drop McCarthy down to 60% at this point. Whether that goes up or down we'll have to see how steeled is the FC. I'm on board with moderate Republicans refusing to hand over their 2 years to the Fascists. It's my preferred pathway, but I have no idea the chances of that happening. I think... the longer the FC holds on, the more likely it is that moderate Republicans reach out to the other side and cut a deal with Dems (I would love to know what THAT would look like!!!) and put up Scalise. I don't know how many Dems would swing over. It's to their benefit to watch Repub's attacking each other for the next two months squabbling and being dysfunctional. Chances for Scalise, right now, 15%? That goes up the more dysfunctional the Repubs get but again, Dems would have to make a tactical decision to do so. The second they do, that 15% shoots way up to 90% methinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, oblong said: but wouldn't that still stick it to them by making them have a weak speaker? Then he can deal with them. If I were them I would argue that I am doing my job but the other side is a shit show and we have to get going. Until there's a speaker then nothing happens. Having a weak GOP majority in some ways is better for Dems going into '24. Nothing will get done and they have the power so they take the blame. We are three hours into this. Way too early for that kinda play Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 The 19 who voted against McCarthy voted for Jordan... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: The obverse would be Jordan breaking ranks and voting for himself on the 3rd... opening up the floodgates from there on... I was thinking that was the 2nd round strategy of nominating Jordan... to try and get him off the McCarthy track... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 58 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: The biggest one would be the instability. Don't see how it could be workable. TBH, the odds are still that McCarthy is going to win {snip} So, no idea, huh? 😉 I was just curious about the technical aspects of something like that, how it would work on a practical basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Michael's tweet thread shows some famous last minute politcal drama.... here's Leslie Stahl saying "Bush!" over and over... this was at Joe Louis Arena when the idea to name Ford as VP candidate fell through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2nd round same as the 1st round. The Fascist 19 swung all their votes to Jordan rather than splitting them but it's still 212 Jefferies - 203 McCarthy - 19 Fascists. When do they do the 3rd round...? And how late do they go? Seems they have enough time for at least a few more rounds today... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, chasfh said: So, no idea, huh? 😉 I was just curious about the technical aspects of something like that, how it would work on a practical basis. Well the practical would be that Jefferies would hold the Speakership. But the Republicans have the majority so they could at any point in time call for a new vote on Speaker so... Practically speaking, Jefferies would actually be Speaker for less than a day. Edited January 3, 2023 by 1984Echoes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: 2nd round same as the 1st round. The Fascist 19 swung all their votes to Jordan rather than splitting them but it's still 212 Jefferies - 203 McCarthy - 19 Fascists. When do they do the 3rd round...? And how late do they go? Seems they have enough time for at least a few more rounds today... anyone can move to adjourn - the question is does enough of the GOP want to keep duking it out today or sleep on it? Can't think of a reason for the Dems not to agree to adjourn - two days of bad press for the GOP will be better than one.... Edited January 3, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, chasfh said: So, no idea, huh? 😉 I was just curious about the technical aspects of something like that, how it would work on a practical basis. That would definitely show the level of Republican incoherence though... Edited January 3, 2023 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said: anyone can move to adjourn - the question is does majority of the GOP want to keep duking it out today or sleep on it? Looks like they're ready to at least go 1 more round... It's not even 3:30... let's see what kind of stamina they have for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Current Tump Party, playing chicken with Democracy... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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