2023 Detroit Tigers Regular Season Discussion Thread

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, casimir said:

Joe Jimenez is set to be a free agent.

Perish the thought!!!

[casimir]

11 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Is there such a thing as getting peak value for a guy you've been using in middle relief? Methinks you'd end up selling fairly low. I guess the knock is that he's 27 yrs old. But traditional wisdom is that it's never too late for a lefty to turn into something. 

It just takes one team to overvalue that.  Oh, and he's a lefty, too?  That just adds to the possible overvalue.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not at all saying that he needs to be dealt.  He's pitched well, although we need to be honest that he's gotten a bit of BABIP help.  So, a repeat of this season with more normalized ball in play results aren't going to yield another ERA in the 2s.

[casimir]

Somehow or another, Andy Ibanez has creeped up to a 99 OPS+.  I don't expect him to return as a Tiger, but he might have earned himself a MLB deal somewheres next season.

[Edman85]

At this point I do expect Ibanez to stick around. He still has an option year if you need to stash him, hits lefties pretty well. You can do a lot worse.

As for moving Holton to the rotation, I had the thought, especially when he was stretched out on Tuesday. The Rays have had success doing it with guys like Springs, Rasmussen, and now Littell. Granted the first two of those guys had elbows go sproing, but hey...

Edited September 22, 2023 by Edman85

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

At this point I do expect Ibanez to stick around. He still has an option year if you need to stash him, hits lefties pretty well. You can do a lot worse.

As for moving Holton to the rotation, I had the thought, especially when he was stretched out on Tuesday. The Rays have had success doing it with guys like Springs, Rasmussen, and now Littell. Granted the first two of those guys had elbows go sproing, but hey...

How about a long reliever who pitches 2 or 3 innings per appearance?  I have often wondered why there are so many regular starters who throw 150+ innings and so many relievers who throw 60-70 innings, but not so many in between (not be design anyway).  I would think there are more pitchers who could thrive in roles where they pitch 40-50 games and throw around 100 innings.  

[Tiger337]

11 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Is there such a thing as getting peak value for a guy you've been using in middle relief? Methinks you'd end up selling fairly low. I guess the knock is that he's 27 yrs old. But traditional wisdom is that it's never too late for a lefty to turn into something. 

I don't worry as much about age with pitchers.  I know there is an aging curve, but I suspect the confidence interval around the curve is a lot wider for pitchers than hitters.  

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

How about a long reliever who pitches 2 or 3 innings per appearance?  I have often wondered why there are so many regular starters who throw 150+ innings and so many relievers who throw 60-70 innings, but not so many in between (not be design anyway).  I would think there are more pitchers who could thrive in roles where they pitch 40-50 games and throw around 100 innings.  

I’ve been noodling this idea more, that there seems to be an opportunity for a system to develop two-to-three inning guys who can bridge a starter’s five innings to a closer/setup? Because right now it almost seems as if everyone is being geared to throw either five innings max effort, or one inning max effort. You end up using five pitchers in a normal close game, and then you have to vamp the next day until at least some of your guys rest up. It feels unsustainable on a mandated 13-pitcher-max staff, which means you end up churning through your 40 until you max out options.

The thing they would have to manage for is how much rest a guy throwing three innings balls out would need. Probably not four, but also probably not none either? They would also have to optimize the training regimen for a guy like this, something different from a starter’s and a one-inning-guy’s regimen. I’d be interested in seeing what something like that looks like.

[chasfh]

23 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

At this point I do expect Ibanez to stick around. He still has an option year if you need to stash him, hits lefties pretty well. You can do a lot worse.

Yes, and beyond just the optionability, the guy is also throwing up a win and a half in a utility role where he’s giving us a plus glove at five different positions as well as a bit of pop at the plate. It’s not as though the guy is Willi Castro where everyone is scapegoating him and calling for his head despite what he could give us so we have to let him walk for nothing just to keep the peace. Considering we’re not going to seriously contend next year anyway*, and that we have a contractual obligation to put players on the field, we might as well ride him out for another year. Sure he’s streaky, but most players are streaky, and I don’t think we can manage a roster to maximize players who are steady the whole year. There just aren’t enough of those guys around to build a roster around.

 

 

* - I realize we are in a weak winnable division, but I believe we should win it while still building toward the future on plan, not by switching gears to try to contend on the edges by go off plan and, for example, trading from the system for so-so big league regulars, or overpaying with years marginal free agents that happen to played on playoff teams.

[Tiger337]

Yeah, I don't see any reason why Ibanez would not be back next year.  Hopefully not as a a regular though.  

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

....  I would think there are more pitchers who could thrive in roles where they pitch 40-50 games and throw around 100 innings.  

I'm almost adamant that the Tigers should carry at least two of these guys every year: one LH'er and one RH'er.

Faedo would be perfect as the RH'er IMO (1st time facing batters: .567 OPS, 2nd time: .800 OPS).

Lefty two inning pitcher: Tyler Holton (no 2nd time faced sample but has shown he can go 2-ish innings if needed... additionally, "1st time faced" data says OPS of .524 - promising...)

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

At this point I do expect Ibanez to stick around. He still has an option year if you need to stash him, hits lefties pretty well. You can do a lot worse.

Ah, I didn't realize that, thanks.

Interestingly his (poor) OBP is pretty much the same vs LHPs and RHPs.  Its his SLG% that really shoots up vs LHPs.

I'm still not certain he is retained.  He's not the "dominate the strike zone" hitter that has been mentioned.  But at the same time, which RHH bench IF at Detroit/Toledo is that has performed to Ibanez' level?

[Shinzaki]

In the late 70's the Tigers were viewed as having a really deep prospect pool of young arms.  Even after Fidrych flamed out, you had Morris, Petry, Chris, Underwood, Robbins who were all pretty highly thought of.  Really only Morris and Petry made it...Right now we seem to have even more young pitching in the system.  I'm kinda excited about that

[RatkoVarda]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

I'm still not certain he is retained.  He's not the "dominate the strike zone" hitter that has been mentioned.  But at the same time, which RHH bench IF at Detroit/Toledo is that has performed to Ibanez' level?

assuming Keith and Malloy are likely on opening day roster, a versatile defender like Kreidler might be a better fit than than Ibanez

[Tiger337]

 

1 hour ago, casimir said:

Ah, I didn't realize that, thanks.

Interestingly his (poor) OBP is pretty much the same vs LHPs and RHPs.  Its his SLG% that really shoots up vs LHPs.

I'm still not certain he is retained.  He's not the "dominate the strike zone" hitter that has been mentioned.  But at the same time, which RHH bench IF at Detroit/Toledo is that has performed to Ibanez' level?

I would say given who they have right now, he'd make the roster.  That could change depending what acquistions they make in the off-season and which prospects are ready to make the jump to the Majors.  

Edited September 22, 2023 by Tiger337

[chasfh]

20 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

assuming Keith and Malloy are likely on opening day roster, a versatile defender like Kreidler might be a better fit than than Ibanez

I'm not sure either are likely to be on the opening day roster as of today. I think they would have to have monster springs for that to happen. Keith especially, he of all of 300 or so plate appearances at AAA, and I think Harris will want to give him a smoother path to onboarding into the majors than just throwing him out there as though he were a 27-year-old non-prospect we need to fill a sudden opening. And since Riley is going to be a full-time DH, I don't see anyplace to put Justyn, either, unless we punt on defense at third, which may not be the best way to onboard him into the majors.

[casimir]

59 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

assuming Keith and Malloy are likely on opening day roster, a versatile defender like Kreidler might be a better fit than than Ibanez

I don't assume that either one of Keith or Malloy make the Opening Day roster.  They might, I don't know.

I don't assume what we might see this offseason.  I think with Harris having been in charge for a season and having a better understanding of the organization, and also the players having another season under their belt, these are different variables than last offseason.  So how will Harris build from that?

[4hzglory]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I'm not sure either are likely to be on the opening day roster as of today. I think they would have to have monster springs for that to happen. Keith especially, he of all of 300 or so plate appearances at AAA, and I think Harris will want to give him a smoother path to onboarding into the majors than just throwing him out there as though he were a 27-year-old non-prospect we need to fill a sudden opening. And since Riley is going to be a full-time DH, I don't see anyplace to put Justyn, either, unless we punt on defense at third, which may not be the best way to onboard him into the majors.

I think Kieth is more likely to for the simple reason that he is a top 100 prospect and has the long shot possibility of netting a draft pick if he would be ROY.   I think they’re likely to bring him north unless he shows he isn’t ready in the spring.  If he shows he is overwhelmed they can always send him down, but they have no chance of the pick unless they bring him north at the beginning or he keeps rookie eligibility through 2024.  If they think he’ll be ready by say June, I think he’s up opening day just because of that caveat.

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

How about a long reliever who pitches 2 or 3 innings per appearance?  I have often wondered why there are so many regular starters who throw 150+ innings and so many relievers who throw 60-70 innings, but not so many in between (not be design anyway).  I would think there are more pitchers who could thrive in roles where they pitch 40-50 games and throw around 100 innings.  

I imgine part of the issue is trying to figure out cycle time. Not saying it can't be done but that I don't think any team has ever sat down and figured it out. They know they want to keep a guy throwing 100 pitches on 5 days, they know they can use a guy at 15-25 pitches 2 days out of 3, but what is the proper cycle and rehab cycle for a guy throwing in the range of 45-70?

Edited September 22, 2023 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

22 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I imgine part of the issue is trying to figure out cycle time. Not saying it can't be done but that I don't think any team has ever sat down and figured it out. They know they want to keep a guy throwing 100 pitches on 5 days, they know they can use a guy at 15-25 pitches 2 days out of 3, but what is the proper cycle and rehab cycle for a guy throwing in the range of 45-70?

Once every 3 or 4 days.

Faedo on Monday, Holton on Tuesday, 1-inning guys on Wednesday... back to Faedo.

I know it doesn't work out exactly like that... I'm just surmising here...

[Tiger337]

30 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I imgine part of the issue is trying to figure out cycle time. Not saying it can't be done but that I don't think any team has ever sat down and figured it out. They know they want to keep a guy throwing 100 pitches on 5 days, they know they can use a guy at 15-25 pitches 2 days out of 3, but what is the proper cycle and rehab cycle for a guy throwing in the range of 45-70?

I agree it needs to be worked out, but with starters going 5 or 6 innings in every start, you can count on the 7th 8th and 9th innings being open everyday and sometimes more than that.  Knowing that, you can kind of schedule your long men ahead of time.   

[1984Echoes]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I agree it needs to be worked out, but with starters going 5 or 6 innings in every start, you can count on the 7th 8th and 9th innings being open everyday and sometimes more than that.  Knowing that, you can kind of schedule your long men ahead of time.   

This.

Plus the occasional extra-inning game...

[SeattleMike]

3 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

I think Kieth is more likely to for the simple reason that he is a top 100 prospect and has the long shot possibility of netting a draft pick if he would be ROY.   I think they’re likely to bring him north unless he shows he isn’t ready in the spring.  If he shows he is overwhelmed they can always send him down, but they have no chance of the pick unless they bring him north at the beginning or he keeps rookie eligibility through 2024.  If they think he’ll be ready by say June, I think he’s up opening day just because of that caveat.

The Tigers were conservative with Malloy and Keith this year, at least compared to the rest of the league. Of the top 50 hitters (based on OPS) in the IL, 19 were 24 years or younger. Of those 19 only 3 remained in the minors all year: Johathon Rodriguez (23 years old) from Cleveland and Malloy and Keith. There really is no reason that both should not be on the MLB roster at the beginning of 2024. 

[Jim Cowan]

Malloy in particular has nothing left to prove, he has a .420 OBP at every level.  If that means he can do .375 in the majors he needs to be there.

[Tiger337]

19 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

Malloy in particular has nothing left to prove, he has a .420 OBP at every level.  If that means he can do .375 in the majors he needs to be there.

Thanks for pumping up my adopted Tiger all year.  

[CMU97]

8 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

In the late 70's the Tigers were viewed as having a really deep prospect pool of young arms.  Even after Fidrych flamed out, you had Morris, Petry, Chris, Underwood, Robbins who were all pretty highly thought of.  Really only Morris and Petry made it...Right now we seem to have even more young pitching in the system.  I'm kinda excited about that

Don't forget about Dave Rozema, who won 15 games as a 20-year-old rookie in 1977. He threw 218 innings that year. In 1978 he threw 200 more. Arm issues ensued, and he was never the same. Back then, and well before and after, I think the pitchets were blamed for their injuries. I don't know if "overuse" for a young pitcher was ever thought of.