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Lions schedule and NFL predictions


TP_Fan

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1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

The answer to the question "why wouldn't the Lions be good" can probably be found hidden in the weeds here: they are still a very young team, and their success is dependent on the emergence of rookie and sophomore talent that is expected to be good out of the gate... If Campbell, LaPorta, and Gibbs start their careers flat, and/or Hutch and Jameson don't have an upward trajectory, there is the possibility they will struggle.

But the author loses all credibility by citing a failure to realize their potential "over the years". Claiming the Lions won't be good because of things that happened when literally none of the current players or management were with the franchise is about as astute a projection as using a Magic Eight Ball to predict the outcome of games.

Not too mention the current ownership is new. Some people, especially the national writers, get lazy and say but they are still owned by the Ford's. The win at Green Bay was the turning point for me. They were 3-27 there in the past 30 years. This a team that went into Green Bay and let Matt Flynn shred them. They go in this year in what was essentially a playoff game and win and end Rodgers Packers career. That was when this team experienced success and realized their potential. 

I also read, and I think it was posted here, that the better teams in the league are young and rely on younger players. The Chiefs aren't an old team. The Bengals aren't old, and speaking of the Bengals, there's a franchise that had a longer playoff winless streak than the Lions until they suddenly experienced success and realized their potential. 

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I think my biggest fears if I was to try and answer the question of "why wouldn't the Lions be good this season" would hinge on three things, and two of the three reasons are on offense. I don't think any of these scenarios will happen, but if I was to answer the question this would be my best guesses.

One, does Jared Goff come back down to Earth? Does he turn into a pumpkin and become the Jared Goff of old? That is, a player who turns the ball over a lot with fumbles and interceptions. A guy who feels rushed in the pocket and makes dumb decisions just to dump the football off and force a turnover. We've seen a season and a half of really good football from Goff. We've watched him mature under Ben Johnson and play like a top 7 QB this past season. I see no reason for him to regress given that his offensive weaponry has seemingly improved and we hung onto Ben Johnson.

Two, is Ben Johnson a one hit wonder with nothing new up his sleeve? Do opposing teams and defense have him well scouted and figured out by now? We've seen offensive coaches have a great season one year, only to have their code broken the next. I don't think that is the case with Johnson. We've seen a season and a halves worth of really strong offensive production and imaginative and innovative play calling from Johnson. He's proven that when defense make adjustment he can actually adjust back. He's proven that he can work and make magic with the weapons he's given on any given week.

Three, our defense still doesn't take a big enough step forward and is still a liability in one way or another. Maybe we made a mistake by not addressing the front 4 during the offseason. Maybe the Defensive Backs we signed are only band aids at best. Maybe we made a huge mistake not drafting Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson. Maybe we needed to add a big time DT who can get after the QB or plug the middle against the run in free agency. Maybe CJ Gardner-Johnson was only good based on who he had around him in Philly. Maybe Emmanuel Moseley just isn't that good and/or never fully heals from his injury. I don't really believe any of this at all, but it's just something I put out there if I had to try and plan for the non-injury-related worst with this team.

I don't think any of these three scenarios play themselves out and I think we end up a very good team at season's end.

Edited by Mr.TaterSalad
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I’m not a fan of starting the season in KC. It’s good for exposure and would be gigantic if they could pull off the win but, one, I would have preferred that game to be played in Germany like what was previously rumored and, two, it puts a lot of pressure on them to win in Week 2 with them likely being 0-1 going into it. I would have preferred an easier opponent to start to get the season off to a strong start.
Also, it would have been nice to have Jamo for the inevitable shootout.

The positive is that this looks like a favorable schedule to my eye after KC. Seattle, Atlanta, Green Bay on the non-frozen tundra, Carolina and at Tampa are all winnable games. None will be easy but I think the Lions couldn’t have asked for a better Games 2-6.
Even after that…Vegas, Chargers, Chicago twice, New Orleans, Green Bay, Denver. Is it just me or is this an extremely manageable schedule? If the Lions are what we think they could be, they should be set up nicely for the tougher finish kick of Dallas and Minny twice.

Also, 5 National TV games for the Lions and 6 for the Jets? What world are we living in?
Have the Lions even had 5 national games total in the last 5 years?

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29 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Realistically the only thing that I think could get in the way of the Lions having success this season is significant injuries.

staying healthy is a prerequisite for any team to be successful, not just the lions. i would also add that i'm still concerned about goff's limitations and the other team's ability to exploit them (see the pats and cowboys games last year).  a really good running game should help there, but expecting him to go 17-0 td/int ratio like he did in the second half of the season is unrealistic.

other concerns would be a lack of a proven deep threat at receiver.  i know everyone loves the potential of jaymo, but he hasnt done anything yet.  the league hasnt had a chance to see what he cant do (other than follow the league's gambling rules).  they're a team without star players on defense and still have a hole at run stuffing DT, imo.

with that said, EVERY team has holes.  the lions are well positioned to win a division that appears weak on paper.  10 wins should be the only acceptable outcome barring injuries.  11-12 is possible too.

heck, the viqueens won 13 games last year and they sucked.

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Anything less than 11-6, a division title and at least one playoff win and I’ll be disappointed. I don’t think 13-4 and a loss in the NFC championship game is unrealistic as goals. My only real fear is Goff getting knocked out with a season-ending injury in Week 3. 

Edited by lordstanley
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My first pass... subject to change...

1 - @ Kansas City Chiefs - L 42-41 (0-1)

2 - v. Seattle Seahawks - W 36-28 (1-1)

3 - v. Atlanta Falcons - L 31-28 (1-2)

4 - @ Green Bay Packers - W 28-17 (2-2)

5 - v. Carolina Panthers - W 31-16 (3-2)

6 - @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - W 36-20 (4-2)

7 - @ Baltimore Ravens - W 24-23 (5-2)

8 - v. Las Vegas Raiders - W 42-24 (6-2)

9 - BYE

10 - @ Los Angeles Chargers - L 31-13 (6-3)

11 - v. Chicago Bears - W 49-17 (7-3)

12 - v. Green Bay Packers - W 31-21 (8-3)

13 - @ New Orleans Saints - L 35-31 (8-4)

14 - @ Chicago Bears - W 27-21 (9-4)

15 - v. Denver Broncos - W 31-7 (10-4)

16 - @ Minnesota Vikings - W 24-14 (11-4)

17 - @ Dallas Cowboys - W 31-21 (12-4)

18 - v. Minnesota Vikings - W 23-21 (13-4)

NFC North: (1) Detroit Lions (13-4), (2) Minnesota Vikings (8-9), (3) Green Bay Packers (8-9), (4) Chicago Bears (7-10)

NFC Playoffs: (1) Philadelphia Eagles (14-3), (2) Detroit Lions (13-4), (3) San Francisco 49ers (12-5), (4) Atlanta Falcons (9-8), (5) Dallas Cowboys (11-6), (6) Seattle Seahawks (10-7), (7) New York Giants (9-8)

Wildcard Round - v. New York Giants - W 31-10

Divisional Round - v. San Francisco 49ers - W 27-23

NFC Championship Game - @ Philadelphia Eagles - L 33-31

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4 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Last year I had them going 9-8 and folks said the same thing.

Granted I also had them winning a playoff game against the Packers, but that doesn't help advance my narrative that I know what I'm talking about. 😉 

with some luck they could win 13, just like the vikes last year.

with some bad luck they could be 8-9.  /debbiedowner.

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6 minutes ago, buddha said:

with some luck they could win 13, just like the vikes last year.

with some bad luck they could be 8-9.  /debbiedowner.

I think they’re better than the Vikings were last year. The Vikings reasonable ceiling last year was probably like 10–11 wins and they had such insane amounts of luck that they stumbled their way into 13.

The floor is probably around 0.500 if a lot went wrong, I agree with that.

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1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think they’re better than the Vikings were last year. The Vikings reasonable ceiling last year was probably like 10–11 wins and they had such insane amounts of luck that they stumbled their way into 13.

The floor is probably around 0.500 if a lot went wrong, I agree with that.

The Vikings had a negative point differential. Their expected win total according to Pro-football reference was 8.4 wins. The Lions led the division with an expect 9.1 wins. The Viking vastly overachieved. Green Bay even had a slightly higher expected win total of 8.5. The Vikings ceiling was about 9 wins. 

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4 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

PFF put out the top 10 hardest and easiest schedules based on ELO ratings and the Vikings were 8th toughest overall and toughest in the North. The Lions must be somewhere in the middle cause they weren't on either of the lists. 

Vikings get the Eagles, 49ers, and Bengals vs the Lions getting Dallas, Seattle and Baltimore. I would take that trade off. 

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