Week Fourteen: Detroit Lions (9-3) @ Chicago Bears (4-8)

[MichiganCardinal]

          vs.          

Setting: 12/10/2023, 1:00pm on FOX

Site: Soldier Field in Chicago, IL

Weather: 40° High / 29° Low, 32% chance of rain/snow mix, 17mph wind

Opening Spread: Lions -4.5

All-Time Series Record: Bears lead, 104-78-5

Last Meeting: 11/19/2023, Lions won 31-26

 

Chicago Bears (4-8)

Head Coach: Matt Eberflus (2nd Season: 8-22)

Projected Starting QB: Justin Fields (3rd Season: 7-26)

Last Week: BYE (Preceded by 12-10 W @ Minnesota Vikings (6-6))

Looking Ahead to Week #15: Sunday @ Cleveland Browns (7-5)

 

Your Detroit Lions (9-3)

Head Coach: Dan Campbell (3rd Season: 21-24-1)

Projected Starting QB: Jared Goff (8th Season: 63-48-1)

Last Week: 33-28 W @ New Orleans Saints (5-7)

Looking Ahead to Week #15: Saturday Night v. Denver Broncos (6-6)

 

Elsewhere in the NFL

Primetime: Patriots @ Steelers (TNF), Eagles @ Cowboys (SNF), Titans @ Dolphins (MNF), Packers @ Giants (MNF)

1:00pm: Buccaneers @ Falcons, Rams @ Ravens, Colts @ Bengals, Jaguars @ Browns, Panthers @ Saints, Texans @ Jets

4:05/4:25pm: Vikings @ Raiders, Seahawks @ 49ers, Bills @ Chiefs, Broncos @ Chargers

BYE: Cardinals and Commanders

[number20]

Will the Lions win this game? I'll predict they.... 

..."somehow find a way not to lose" 😁

 

[number20]

Nice job again Cardinal

[buddha]

bad vibes about this one.

[number20]

21 minutes ago, buddha said:

bad vibes about this one.

They'll be angry Bears

[MichiganCardinal]

This one won't be easy. The Bears are better than they looked early this season and Goff historically struggles in the elements. I like our chances if we can hold them to four field goals though.

[Jason_R]

Looks like rain Saturday in Chicago turning to snow on Sunday. I love watching football in that kind of weather. I hate watching Jared Goff in that kind of weather. 

[NYLion]

This will be a good test for the Lions and Goff in particular playing outdoors in the elements. The Bears are playing really well as well so this would be an impressive win if the Lions can get it and quite possibly set up a win division scenario against Denver.

[Motown Bombers]

How often has Goff played in those conditions? It seems this narrative developed from one game in 2018 that was clear, no wind and cold. I think it was more the Bears had an elite defense that year and not this bad weather narrative. 

[RandyMarsh]

6 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

Looks like rain Saturday in Chicago turning to snow on Sunday. I love watching football in that kind of weather. I hate watching Jared Goff in that kind of weather. 

Id be fine with crappy weather cause I think that plays to our strengths. It may hurt Goff but it would hurt Fields as well. It prob would turn into a battle on the ground which I think plays right into the Lions hands. 

[MichiganCardinal]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

How often has Goff played in those conditions? It seems this narrative developed from one game in 2018 that was clear, no wind and cold. I think it was more the Bears had an elite defense that year and not this bad weather narrative. 

Winds were swirling in Baltimore this year and he didn't do well. Counterpoint, he excelled in Green Bay last year.

I do think there is something to NorCal kid going to a NorCal college and getting drafted by a SoCal NFL team not having a ton of exposure to playing in the elements and it therefore impacting his game more than it might a prospect from the midwest who attends a (midwest) B1G school.

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, MichiganCardinal said:

Winds were swirling in Baltimore this year and he didn't do well. Counterpoint, he excelled in Green Bay last year.

I do think there is something to NorCal kid going to a NorCal college and getting drafted by a SoCal NFL team not having a ton of exposure to playing in the elements and it therefore impacting his game more than it might a prospect from the midwest who attends a (midwest) B1G school.

Was it the weather or the Ravens defense? The two games people site as he can't play outdoors are the Baltimore game and the 2018 Bears game. Both teams had elite defenses. Looking back at the conditions in the 2018 Bears game, the game temperature was 29 degrees, 4 MPH winds, no precipitation. The previous game in 2018 was against the Lions in which he wasn't great either. I'm not convinced the weather had an effect and that it was a combination of him not playing well at the time combined with facing an elite defense. 

[MichiganCardinal]

3 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Id be fine with crappy weather cause I think that plays to our strengths. It may hurt Goff but it would hurt Fields as well. It prob would turn into a battle on the ground which I think plays right into the Lions hands. 

The Bears actually have one of the best rush defenses in the league.

They and the 49ers are tied for fewest rush yards allowed despite having seen 32 more rush attempts than the 49ers (Lions are 6th), they are 2nd in the league in YPCA at 3.4 (Lions are 6th), and they are tied for 3rd in rushing TDs allowed at 6 (Lions are tied for 18th). In week 11, they held us to 115 yards on the ground, one of our worst outings on the season. They rushed for 183 yards on us that week.

We will need to spread it out, use more of Jamo, and we will need to get the ball to ASB and LaPorta in space.

[MichiganCardinal]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Was it the weather or the Ravens defense? The two games people site as he can't play outdoors are the Baltimore game and the 2018 Bears game. Both teams had elite defenses. Looking back at the conditions in the 2018 Bears game, the game temperature was 29 degrees, 4 MPH winds, no precipitation. The previous game in 2018 was against the Lions in which he wasn't great either. I'm not convinced the weather had an effect and that it was a combination of him not playing well at the time combined with facing an elite defense. 

It's probably an overstated impact that is heavy in confirmation bias. If he struggles on Sunday, people will say "see! the weather!" and if he does well no one will remember the weather.

But I do think there is some disparate impact on Goff, who has probably played far less lifetime games in the rain and snow than most NFL QBs.

[buddha]

there will be an impact on any qb from playing in the weather if that qb cant run.  throwing in weather is harder than throwing in climate controlled conditions.

justin fields can run so that will be a problem.  again.

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

It's probably an overstated impact that is heavy in confirmation bias. If he struggles on Sunday, people will say "see! the weather!" and if he does well no one will remember the weather.

But I do think there is some disparate impact on Goff, who has probably played far less lifetime games in the rain and snow than most NFL QBs.

I don't think there is enough data. Looking at 2018, that Chicago game was in a pretty rough 3 game stretch for Goff. It came after that epic Monday night game against the Chiefs. He faced the Lions in the dome and was meh, 1 TD 1 INT and completed only 51% of his passes. Patricia still manages to lose that game by double digits. Then there was the Chicago game. Then the game against the Eagles at Los Angeles where he was better but had 0 TDs and 0 INTs in a loss. He then finished the season great. I think it was more of a poor three game stretch combined with facing an elite Bears defense. 

[Motown Bombers]

The Saints did what I wish more teams would do and that is a platoon at QB. I don't know if Hooker has that kind of speed and athleticism, but I would mind the Lions having a mobile QB that they can run a handful of plays for. 

[MichiganCardinal]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

The Saints did what I wish more teams would do and that is a platoon at QB. I don't know if Hooker has that kind of speed and athleticism, but I would mind the Lions having a mobile QB that they can run a handful of plays for. 

If Michigan can have an Orji at QB, why can't the Lions have a Hooker?

I'll be here all week.

[Motown Bombers]

I think Josh Dobbs would be the perfect platoon QB. If I were Minnesota, I would bring him and Cousins back. Cousins would be the main QB but for a handle of plays or a drive or two bring in Dobbs. Dobbs can do what Taysom Hill did but is more of a threat to throw. 

[NYLion]

34 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

The Bears actually have one of the best rush defenses in the league.

They and the 49ers are tied for fewest rush yards allowed despite having seen 32 more rush attempts than the 49ers (Lions are 6th), they are 2nd in the league in YPCA at 3.4 (Lions are 6th), and they are tied for 3rd in rushing TDs allowed at 6 (Lions are tied for 18th). In week 11, they held us to 115 yards on the ground, one of our worst outings on the season. They rushed for 183 yards on us that week.

We will need to spread it out, use more of Jamo, and we will need to get the ball to ASB and LaPorta in space.

Maybe it'll be different on the road but the Lions ran well against the Bears the first time, I actually think they didn't run it enough even though they were playing from behind a lot of the game. They only held the Lions to 115 yards because the Lions didn't run a lot, Montgomery had over 6 yards a carry. This won't be a "spread out" game, they need to establish the run early and often or it'll be a long day at the office.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Maybe it'll be different on the road but the Lions ran well against the Bears the first time, I actually think they didn't run it enough even though they were playing from behind a lot of the game. They only held the Lions to 115 yards because the Lions didn't run a lot, Montgomery had over 6 yards a carry. This won't be a "spread out" game, they need to establish the run early and often or it'll be a long day at the office.

Alexander Mattison averaged 5.2 yards per carry against the Bears. His season average is 3.8. Inexplicably, Minnesota only gave him the ball 10 times. It seems teams come in and try to throw it on them because they have a weak secondary. 

[Jason_R]

54 minutes ago, buddha said:

there will be an impact on any qb from playing in the weather if that qb cant run.  throwing in weather is harder than throwing in climate controlled conditions.

justin fields can run so that will be a problem.  again.

Yes. I cringe enough watching Goff scramble in good conditions. I don’t relish the thought of him trying to hang on to a wet ball with cold hands while navigating a broken pocket on a slippery field. 

[KnoxP]

13 hours ago, number20 said:

Will the Lions win this game? I'll predict they.... 

..."somehow find a way not to lose" 😁

 

I’ll take it!

[Motown Bombers]

13 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

Yes. I cringe enough watching Goff scramble in good conditions. I don’t relish the thought of him trying to hang on to a wet ball with cold hands while navigating a broken pocket on a slippery field. 

Thankfully Fields fumbled twice scrambling in a dome. Can't imagine what he will look like in those conditions. 

[Sports_Freak]

Green Bay is going to win out so Detroit needs 3 wins. Win in Chicago and either a split with the Vikings and beat Denver or a win in Chicago and a sweep against Minnesota (my choice).