sabretooth Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, bobrob2004 said: Given his age, I highly doubt his elite defense is sustainable. I'm sure you are right, but even if he's above average defensively and below average offensively he would still be someone to leave in the lineup next year. At this point the best that you could do is to try to bridge the gap in 2023 with Schoop and see if W Perez is your answer at 2nd in 2024. I would love to go out and answer these problems with free agents or trades, but there just aren't good options for either at this point IMO for 2023, unless our new GM can wheel and deal something DD style like Santiago for Guillen c.2004. Hell I'm not confident at all that we have anyone as good as Omar Infante coming up through the ranks in the IF, and he was getting regular time in the 2nd half of the season on one of the worst teams in history in 2003. Nothing against Omar, I would love to know right now that one or more of these guys coming up in the IF (Perez, Kreidler, Lipcius, Keith, Workman) can be counted on to have a nice productive if mediocre career like he did. Edited August 16, 2022 by sabretooth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 5 hours ago, mtutiger said: Daniel Norris 2.0? /s If we end up lazily picking up Travis Demerritte the same way we’ve been lazily picking up Devils We Know for the past few years, then I think that basically disqualifies Sam Menzin from consideration for the permanent gig. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 5 hours ago, Hongbit said: You are correct. I didn’t realize how much $7.5M is for a 2nd baseman. That was a big overpay in hindsight. Some franchises have to overpay to get even adequate veterans to sign with them. Part of that might be the perception of the franchise, its city, and the direction things are going in; it could also be that the front office guy signing the veterans like Schoop don’t know how to effectively negotiate free agent contracts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Just now, chasfh said: Some franchises have to overpay to get even adequate veterans to sign with them. Part of that might be the perception of the franchise, its city, and the direction things are going in; it could also be that the front office guy signing the veterans like Schoop don’t know how to effectively negotiate free agent contracts. I think criticizing that deal is just hindsight. Schoop was more than worth it if he even approached his norms. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I think criticizing that deal is just hindsight. Schoop was more than worth it if he even approached his norms. yeah, easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 5 hours ago, mtutiger said: His defense gives him a leg up on Candelario IMO. Granted Candy is younger and maybe still has higher potential, but it's hard to trust him in either facet of the game right now. At least Schoop can play a gold glove caliber 2B and theoretically may be able to rebound again. I think it is worth highlighting here that Schoop, by Statcast or OAA is having a career year resurgence in the field, so I wouldn’t necessarily bank that same performance for next year just year. Just because Schoop is playing out of his mind in the field this year doesn’t necessarily mean we should reject moving Baez to second even next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, chasfh said: I think it is worth highlighting here that Schoop, by Statcast or OAA is having a career year resurgence in the field, so I wouldn’t necessarily bank that same performance for next year just year. Just because Schoop is playing out of his mind in the field this year doesn’t necessarily mean we should reject moving Baez to second even next year. I'm not rejecting anything. I just don't see it as being something that will happen 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, chasfh said: I think it is worth highlighting here that Schoop, by Statcast or OAA is having a career year resurgence in the field, so I wouldn’t necessarily bank that same performance for next year just year. Just because Schoop is playing out of his mind in the field this year doesn’t necessarily mean we should reject moving Baez to second even next year. Right, I would love to see them drop Schoop and go with Baez and Correa up the middle, but that is not likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, sabretooth said: Re-posting from a Game Thread so I can find it more easily later: They cannot go back to scratch, what would be the point of trying to promise everybody another 5 year rainbow? You might as well rename them the New Royals and dare people to see an eternally poor product. And yes, it starts with REASONABLE assumptions as you laid out above. - Tork, Greene, and Meadows have to each be 2-3 WAR guys, as they were projected to be in 2022, and anybody that says that any of these 3 guys CAN'T do 2-3 WAR each in 2023 doesn't know what they are talking about. This is not a prediction, this is a screaming need and a reasonable expectation. - Baez's last two months (115 OPS+, 4+ WAR if he plays his normal D for year) is what we are going to see from him for at least 2023 and no dramatic dropoff through 2024. - the Bullpen continues to do as well as they have from the beginning of 2021. 2B, 3B, and LF: - Schoop continues to provide plus D and somehow is able to stop being a black hole as a hitter and do something more like 80-90 OPS+, which is still bad, but would be a 2+ WAR player with plus D. Sadly, there really isn't another option in the FA market or in the minors ready-to-go in 2023, and they are paying Schoop $7M. - They are able to cobble together a non-black-hole situation at 3B, maybe through a combination of Harold and a middling acquisition like Joey Wendle, and maybe they get lucky and Lipcius comes up at some point in 2023 and doesn't suck at 3B, and/or maybe they give Candy a bare-bones one-year contract for the league minimum and see if he can figure out how to hit a baseball again. - They are able to sign one of the few decent FA OFers or trade for someone decent. The OF is generally where you hope that D. Cabrera and/or Carpenter also fill a gap decently for 150 PAs or so. - The Starting Rotation is going to be a plug-and-pray situation. Hopefully among Skubal, Manning, Turnbull and Brieske, there's enough healthy starts to cover at least 60 starts with decent pitching. Hopefully they can fill one other slot decently with available healthier options. That would leave a need for at least one other guy more likely two. I hate hate hate to depend on Eduardo again, but he may be a necessary option. That still would leave probably one other guy, a FA or trade acquisition. Given what little there is to trade, probably a modest FA acquisition. That's a 3Bman, LFer, and at least one SP....probably two FAs (LF and SP) and a trade acquisition at 3B. If Meadows, Tork and Greene get it done then they are in the mid-70's...if they hit lighting in a bottle with the other positions maybe they luck their way into a winning season. It aint much but it's probably all they have to go on at this point. Comments: I think Baez could be a 4-win player pretty consistent if he gets a hitting coach he respects working with him. I think it’s a real stretch to expect the bullpen to continue performing the way they have, a least in terms of RA9-WAR-type outcome. I would think Schoop’s 2023 will be better hitting, worse fielding, something in the 1-2 win range. I actually have some confidence that if Candelario gets good, consistent coaching, his hitting could float upward toward his 2019-20 levels. I think 100-110 wRC+ is doable for him for a couple more years. I’ll bet Brieske won’t be pitching for the team come next All-Star break. I have no earthly idea what Eduardo Rodriguez’s situation is, but it wouldn’t surpsie me if he does not pitch out the contract. He might even limp along like Zimmerman for his last couple years. TORK! will end up being just fine, and I still see All-Star nods in his future. Edited August 16, 2022 by chasfh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, chasfh said: I have no earthly idea what Eduardo Rodriguez’s situation is, but it wouldn’t surpsie me if he does not pitch out the contract. He might even limp along like Zimmerman for his last couple years. Pitching pretty well tonight in Toledo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: And if Clemens continues to be bad at age 27, that increases the chance that Zach Short is on the team. Or that Wenceel Perez gets his call up as soon as he's ready... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Eduardo is currently through 4 innings of 1R ball with 6Ks down in Toledo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, chasfh said: Comments: I think Baez could be a 4-win player pretty consistent if he gets a hitting coach he respects working with him. I have confidence that he has 115 OPS+ in his bat, no doubt. Whether he can maintain that as he approaches 30 I worry about. His fielding is not bad but oy does he make his share of bad throws. 17 minutes ago, chasfh said: I think it’s a real stretch to expect the bullpen to continue performing the way they have, a least in terms of RA9-WAR-type outcome. Maybe.....two years of above average Bullpen performance is likely not a fluke in my opinion; as you know, my long-standing theory is that the Manager is largely capable of determining BP performance if he has the relationship with the GM, the skills and energy, and a pitching coach that he works well with. I don't have numbers handy to back this up, but I have looked at it extensively in the past, and in the case of the Tigers, Leyland and Hinch had markedly better bullpen outcomes than the Tigers Managers who were immediately before (and in Leyland's case, immediately after him), while they shared the same GMs with the Managers before and after them. I am confident that Hinch and Fetters are guys who will reliably produce a good bullpen. 17 minutes ago, chasfh said: I would think Schoop’s 2023 will be better hitting, worse fielding, something in the 1-2 win range. Boy I hope so. 17 minutes ago, chasfh said: I actually have some confidence that if Candelario gets good, consistent coaching, his hitting could float upward toward his 2019-20 levels. I think 100-110 wRC+ is doable for him for a couple more years. I think they almost HAVE to give him another shot so they are not forced to plug Kriedler in there full-time right away. 17 minutes ago, chasfh said: I’ll bet Brieske won’t be pitching for the team come next All-Star break. Probably true. 17 minutes ago, chasfh said: I have no earthly idea what Eduardo Rodriguez’s situation is, but it wouldn’t surpsie me if he does not pitch out the contract. He might even limp along like Zimmerman for his last couple years. Anything is possible with him. 17 minutes ago, chasfh said: TORK! will end up being just fine, and I still see All-Star nods in his future. I sooooo want this to be true, but so far he looks sooooo awful. He was one of the most talented College hitters in a generation....he shredded minor league pitching too.....he can't be THIS bad. Edited August 17, 2022 by sabretooth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: Eduardo is currently through 4 innings of 1R ball with 6Ks down in Toledo. His last start at AAA was pretty stellar as well. I understand that people are angry at him for being away, whatever the reasons were... but purely on performance, idk if skepticism that he contribute to the 2023 rotation is warranted at this point. Edited August 17, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 46 minutes ago, sabretooth said: I'm sure you are right, but even if he's above average defensively and below average offensively he would still be someone to leave in the lineup next year. At this point the best that you could do is to try to bridge the gap in 2023 with Schoop and see if W Perez is your answer at 2nd in 2024. I would love to go out and answer these problems with free agents or trades, but there just aren't good options for either at this point IMO for 2023, unless our new GM can wheel and deal something DD style like Santiago for Guillen c.2004. Hell I'm not confident at all that we have anyone as good as Omar Infante coming up through the ranks in the IF, and he was getting regular time in the 2nd half of the season on one of the worst teams in history in 2003. Nothing against Omar, I would love to know right now that one or more of these guys coming up in the IF (Perez, Kreidler, Lipcius, Keith, Workman) can be counted on to have a nice productive if mediocre career like he did. This is why I think 2023 will be an "evaluation" year by the new GM. I think both Candy and Schoop are on the opening day roster. I think both are also gone at the trade deadline. Time to evaluate Clemens, Kreidler, Wenceel at the MLB level. Time to try Baez out at 2B. Maybe Lipcius squeezes onto the Tigers as well. Time to sort out the pitching... And evaluate a few other guys that may be another 1 or 2 years away next year (Keith, Dingler ... anyone else? Wilmer Flores?) And then wheel and deal and trade and sign FA's and such after an organizational evaluation... But that's just my guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, mtutiger said: His last start at AAA was pretty stellar as well. I understand that people are angry at him for being away, whatever the reasons were... but purely on performance, idk if skepticism that he contribute to the 2023 rotation is warranted at this point. If this was some kind of kidnapping situation (like with his mother) which, we have no idea whatsoever except our own conjecture... There is no possible way that I would be upset with him. Even with some uncommunicative weeks... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Eduardo just threw an immaculate inning in the 5th. Now is at 5IP 1R 9Ks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: Eduardo just threw an immaculate inning in the 5th. Now is at 5IP 1R 9Ks. I think he's ready aleady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said: I think he's ready aleady. Finished with 11Ks in six innings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Or that Wenceel Perez gets his call up as soon as he's ready... Perez is more interesting than Clemens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: This is why I think 2023 will be an "evaluation" year by the new GM. I think both Candy and Schoop are on the opening day roster. I think both are also gone at the trade deadline. Time to evaluate Clemens, Kreidler, Wenceel at the MLB level. Time to try Baez out at 2B. Maybe Lipcius squeezes onto the Tigers as well. Time to sort out the pitching... And evaluate a few other guys that may be another 1 or 2 years away next year (Keith, Dingler ... anyone else? Wilmer Flores?) And then wheel and deal and trade and sign FA's and such after an organizational evaluation... But that's just my guess. Kreidler and Perez sure, but is there anything to evaluate with Clemens other than to see whether he can be a utility player? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Kreidler and Perez sure, but is there anything to evaluate with Clemens other than to see whether he can be a utility player? Kriedler, Torkelson, Greene, Perez, Carpenter. If the Tigers are wildly lucky and all these guys can hit in the majors then they will have a team next year. But how probable is 'wildly lucky'. Of course how probable was this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Perez is more interesting than Clemens. I think so as well... 7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Kreidler and Perez sure, but is there anything to evaluate with Clemens other than to see whether he can be a utility player? Probably not. The only thing that sits at the back of my mind is that i always want to give enough of a chance to a guy before writing him off. And maybe even one more chance than that. You're probably 100% correct: Clemens is a utility guy... Sometimes though... a guy rises above his expectations and produces more than thought capable. I wouldn't put any money on Clemens doing more than expected... I'd just give him his shot to prove that he can't do more than that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Kriedler, Torkelson, Greene, Perez, Carpenter. If the Tigers are wildly lucky and all these guys can hit in the majors then they will have a team next year. But how probable is 'wildly lucky'. Of course how probable was this year? Maybe not next year. But if they can hit major league pitching in 2023, that might bode well for 2024 and reduce the next offseason shopping list some, or change priorities on the shopping list... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 40 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: Eduardo just threw an immaculate inning in the 5th. Now is at 5IP 1R 9Ks. Good night for Eduardo, meanwhile Pineda follows by giving up 3 runs on 3 hits and BB in 1 IP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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