Cleanup in Aisle Lunatic (h/t romad1)

[Motown Bombers]

Are we serious trying to put Elizabeth Warren and George Santos in the same category? We don't even know if George Santos is his real name. 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

George Santos copied Warren and then went full speed ahead.  So far, being male hasn't helped him out all that much.  Granted he's an idiot too so that adds a variable Warren doesn't have.

The hell you say. Elizabeth Warren is nothing like George Santos. Literally. Nothing.

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I hope Trump runs as a 3rd party. That will fix a whole lot of things...

Coming from the guy who salivated over the prospect of Trump winning the republican nomination in 2016 convinced that he was gonna get smoked by Hillary in the general ... careful what you wish for.

Because Trump would probably win a bunch of states and DeSantis would win a bunch of others, including states that went for Biden in 2020, leaving [Insert D Nominee Here] to scrounge for whatever is left over, since it's almost certain they would not pick up even a single Trump 2020 state.

And remember: if a candidate does not get the majority of electoral votes in the general election, the final decision goes to the House in the constitutional but nevertheless anti-democratic one state-one vote compromise solution.

And in that scenario, a quite likely outcome is Trump becomes president.

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, ewsieg said:

George Santos copied Warren and then went full speed ahead.  So far, being male hasn't helped him out all that much.  Granted he's an idiot too so that adds a variable Warren doesn't have.

Santos has lied about every aspect of his life.  He is a complete fraud.  Warren lied about one thing to get some small advantage which she probably didn't need.  Warren was an accomplished economist and professor before she checked off the Indian box.  It was a stupid thing to do, but it's been blown way out of proportion.    

[Tiger337]

46 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Coming from the guy who salivated over the prospect of Trump winning the republican nomination in 2016 convinced that he was gonna get smoked by Hillary in the general ... careful what you wish for.

Because Trump would probably win a bunch of states and DeSantis would win a bunch of others, including states that went for Biden in 2020, leaving [Insert D Nominee Here] to scrounge for whatever is left over, since it's almost certain they would not pick up even a single Trump 2020 state.

And remember: if a candidate does not get the majority of electoral votes in the general election, the final decision goes to the House in the constitutional but nevertheless anti-democratic one state-one vote compromise solution.

And in that scenario, a quite likely outcome is Trump becomes president.

Either Trump or DeSantis.  Under different circumstances, it would be interesting to watch, but I think you are right that it would be dangerous.   

[Tigerbomb13]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

The hell you say. Elizabeth Warren is nothing like George Santos. Literally. Nothing.

The both sidesin’ taken to new extremes lol

[pfife]

Has it actually been proven that Warren lied or is it just another bunch of banana republic party nonsense?

[gehringer_2]

26 minutes ago, pfife said:

Has it actually been proven that Warren lied or is it just another bunch of banana republic party nonsense?

Well, she released a DNA test indicating there probably was an ancestor, but it pretty much undercut her own case because it showed the ancestor was *way* back there and objectively it was a stretch for her to claim any kind of status based on it. Her 'excuse' such as it is, is that she was going by what her own family had told her when she was young. Well, when you go into real life you probably should check that kind of thing before you try to use it to your advantage.

That said, the comparison to Santos is still nonsensical. She may have bootstrapped herself into school, but once there her subsequent accomplishments have been real enough.

Edited March 9, 2023 by gehringer_2

[oblong]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Coming from the guy who salivated over the prospect of Trump winning the republican nomination in 2016 convinced that he was gonna get smoked by Hillary in the general ... careful what you wish for.

Because Trump would probably win a bunch of states and DeSantis would win a bunch of others, including states that went for Biden in 2020, leaving [Insert D Nominee Here] to scrounge for whatever is left over, since it's almost certain they would not pick up even a single Trump 2020 state.

And remember: if a candidate does not get the majority of electoral votes in the general election, the final decision goes to the House in the constitutional but nevertheless anti-democratic one state-one vote compromise solution.

And in that scenario, a quite likely outcome is Trump becomes president.

I’m not following. If Trump tries to runs third party he would need a lot of infrastructure help to even get on every state’s ballot. I don’t know if he would be accepted by the Green Party. Libertarians would take him. 
 

but I don’t see how him being on a ballot with a Republican hurts democrats. Even a slice of 5% of GOP voters to third party dooms them. I can’t imagine very many previous Biden voter’s suddenly thinking “hey, Ron and Don are here to give me a choice”.  You’d end up with a 49-34-15 split among the D, R, and whatever Trump is. 

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, oblong said:

I’m not following. If Trump tries to runs third party he would need a lot of infrastructure help to even get on every state’s ballot. I don’t know if he would be accepted by the Green Party. Libertarians would take him. 
 

but I don’t see how him being on a ballot with a Republican hurts democrats. Even a slice of 5% of GOP voters to third party dooms them. I can’t imagine very many previous Biden voter’s suddenly thinking “hey, Ron and Don are here to give me a choice”.  You’d end up with a 49-34-15 split among the D, R, and whatever Trump is. 

You'd have to posit that Trump and the regular GOP candidate split the vote regionally instead of within states. If they split in within states clearly the GOP would have no hope, Dems could waltz to a win. But if Trump could actually win some states and Desantis (or whoever) some others, it could deny the Dems 270. I'd call that scenario conceivable, but pretty unlikely. But what about the whole Trump era ever seemed likely?

[chasfh]

9 minutes ago, oblong said:

I’m not following. If Trump tries to runs third party he would need a lot of infrastructure help to even get on every state’s ballot. I don’t know if he would be accepted by the Green Party. Libertarians would take him. 
 

but I don’t see how him being on a ballot with a Republican hurts democrats. Even a slice of 5% of GOP voters to third party dooms them. I can’t imagine very many previous Biden voter’s suddenly thinking “hey, Ron and Don are here to give me a choice”.  You’d end up with a 49-34-15 split among the D, R, and whatever Trump is. 

I don't think he has to get on every state's ballot. Just enough to throw a wrench into the works. He could make up a party out of thin air, get a hell of a lot of money from rubes and oligarchs alike along with hundreds of people smart enough and good enough at running things to bring it to fruition, and probably get on the ballot in at least a couple dozen states.

The idea would be to steal enough electoral votes to force that very House vote. If the situation in November 2024 is roughly the same as today, could win probably every deep south state, and a bunch in the Midwest and west. Just a quick trip around the calculator while looking at states' electoral vote totals yields maybe 140 electoral votes, and that's counting on him losing Florida and Texas.

I'm not predicting this is going to happen and I'm not certainly saying it's likely. I think the most likely thing is the Banana Republicans cave in and crown him the candidate in Milwaukee. But if it looks by this fall like the establishment is successfully freezing him out of the process altogether, then hell yeah he's going to try a third party run.

[digitalpigsmuggler]

11 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

You'd have to posit that Trump and the regular GOP candidate split the vote regionally instead of within states. If they split in within states clearly the GOP would have no hope, Dems could waltz to a win. But if Trump could actually win some states and Desantis (or whoever) some others, it could deny the Dems 270. I'd call that scenario conceivable, but pretty unlikely. But what about the whole Trump era ever seemed likely?

I could see the socialist left, splitting off a chunk of the Democrats vote in the future. Maybe not this election but the AOC, Sanders wing is getting restless with Biden wing which, has turned hard left to try to appease them. 

[romad1]

She seems really normal and reasonable 

White gloves at mid day. It appears none of the other people dressed up like a Disney Princess.  

[oblong]

Any states Trump would win would already be red states. I can’t see any blue states giving him a majority and I could see some thin red states splitting the R vote throwing it to the D column. What would a D lose that they won in 2020?

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Well, she released a DNA test indicating there probably was an ancestor, but it pretty much undercut her own case because it showed the ancestor was *way* back there and objectively it was a stretch for her to claim any kind of status based on it. Her 'excuse' such as it is, is that she was going by what her own family had told her when she was young. Well, when you go into real life you probably should check that kind of thing before you try to use it to your advantage.

That said, the comparison to Santos is still nonsensical. She may have bootstrapped herself into school, but once there her subsequent accomplishments have been real enough.

Her accomplishments before getting the Harvard job were real too.  The narrative that she stole a job from an Indian and completely changed her life is false.  

[pfife]

27 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

I could see the socialist left, splitting off a chunk of the Democrats vote in the future. Maybe not this election but the AOC, Sanders wing is getting restless with Biden wing which, has turned hard left to try to appease them. 

Fiction

[Tiger337]

28 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

I could see the socialist left, splitting off a chunk of the Democrats vote in the future. Maybe not this election but the AOC, Sanders wing is getting restless with Biden wing which, has turned hard left to try to appease them. 

That already happened.  

[digitalpigsmuggler]

5 minutes ago, oblong said:

Any states Trump would win would already be red states. I can’t see any blue states giving him a majority and I could see some thin red states splitting the R vote throwing it to the D column. What would a D lose that they won in 2020?

Still really early for people to be making declarative statements. A lot could change between now and then. 
 

if inflation continues, and grocery prices continue up, that’s bad for the Democrats.  Or maybe they fall, it’s all speculation. War in Ukraine could take a turn, expand or even be over. Gas prices are anyone guesses. Pundits have said economy is going to sink, others it will grow.

it’s just way to early for predictions.

[pfife]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Well, she released a DNA test indicating there probably was an ancestor, but it pretty much undercut her own case because it showed the ancestor was *way* back there and objectively it was a stretch for her to claim any kind of status based on it. Her 'excuse' such as it is, is that she was going by what her own family had told her when she was young. Well, when you go into real life you probably should check that kind of thing before you try to use it to your advantage.

That said, the comparison to Santos is still nonsensical. She may have bootstrapped herself into school, but once there her subsequent accomplishments have been real enough.

So at least partly a banana republican bunch of malarkey at minimum.  😄

 

[Tiger337]

3 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

Still really early for people to be making declarative statements. A lot could change between now and then. 
 

if inflation continues, and grocery prices continue up, that’s bad for the Democrats.  Or maybe they fall, it’s all speculation. War in Ukraine could take a turn, expand or even be over. Gas prices are anyone guesses. Pundits have said economy is going to sink, others it will grow.

it’s just way to early for predictions.

That is something we can agree upon.  There might even be some emerging candidates to change things.  I'm not counting on that, but I hope so.  

Edited March 9, 2023 by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

42 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

Biden wing which, has turned hard left to try to appease them. 

LOL  - Which is why Biden just decided not to veto the DC crime bill and his next big PR push is going to be on the deficit. Very lefty....NOT.

Edited March 9, 2023 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

Coming from the guy who salivated over the prospect of Trump winning the republican nomination in 2016 convinced that he was gonna get smoked by Hillary in the general ... careful what you wish for.

Because Trump would probably win a bunch of states and DeSantis would win a bunch of others, including states that went for Biden in 2020, leaving [Insert D Nominee Here] to scrounge for whatever is left over, since it's almost certain they would not pick up even a single Trump 2020 state.

And remember: if a candidate does not get the majority of electoral votes in the general election, the final decision goes to the House in the constitutional but nevertheless anti-democratic one state-one vote compromise solution.

And in that scenario, a quite likely outcome is Trump becomes president.

Complete and total flub on this post.

Not even close.

1 hour ago, oblong said:

I’m not following. If Trump tries to runs third party he would need a lot of infrastructure help to even get on every state’s ballot. I don’t know if he would be accepted by the Green Party. Libertarians would take him. 
 

but I don’t see how him being on a ballot with a Republican hurts democrats. Even a slice of 5% of GOP voters to third party dooms them. I can’t imagine very many previous Biden voter’s suddenly thinking “hey, Ron and Don are here to give me a choice”.  You’d end up with a 49-34-15 split among the D, R, and whatever Trump is. 

THIS... is correct.

 

And...

PS: I NEVER EVER salivated about Trump winning the nomination. You are mistaking frothing at the mouth in an uncontrolled rage with salivating. Learn how to differentiate between salivating and frothing!!!

😉

[1984Echoes]

46 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don't think he has to get on every state's ballot. Just enough to throw a wrench into the works. He could make up a party out of thin air, get a hell of a lot of money from rubes and oligarchs alike along with hundreds of people smart enough and good enough at running things to bring it to fruition, and probably get on the ballot in at least a couple dozen states.

The idea would be to steal enough electoral votes to force that very House vote. If the situation in November 2024 is roughly the same as today, could win probably every deep south state, and a bunch in the Midwest and west. Just a quick trip around the calculator while looking at states' electoral vote totals yields maybe 140 electoral votes, and that's counting on him losing Florida and Texas.

I'm not predicting this is going to happen and I'm not certainly saying it's likely. I think the most likely thing is the Banana Republicans cave in and crown him the candidate in Milwaukee. But if it looks by this fall like the establishment is successfully freezing him out of the process altogether, then hell yeah he's going to try a third party run.

Trump would win a few states. DeSantis or whomever the Banana Republican candidate is would win a few states.

Biden would win in a landslide. If he doesn't run in 2024, it wouldn't matter. The Dem candidate would win in a landslide, regardless.

[digitalpigsmuggler]

Just now, 1984Echoes said:

Trump would win a few states. DeSantis or whomever the Banana Republican candidate is would win a few states.

Biden would win in a landslide. If he doesn't run in 2024, it wouldn't matter. The Dem candidate would win in a landslide, regardless.

He isn’t going to run third party. It doesn’t benefit him. 
 

 

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

He isn’t going to run third party. It doesn’t benefit him. 
 

 

Doesn't benefit him? Really? For Trump, campaigning is one big gold plated expense paid ego massage junkett on other people's money. Hard to imagine what else he could be itching to spend his time doing instead.