2024 Presidential Election thread

[Motown Bombers]

7 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Yesterday there was some back and forth comments regarding immigration in this very thread. I believe that my position was/is that the immigration was going to be a bigger consideration for voters than is being acknowledged here. I still believe that.

Lo and behold this article shows up in the WSJ this morning as I am having my first cup of Lavazza Italian coffee. This article supports my point from yesterday’s conversations. So I attach it here. Immigration IS registering as a larger concern than some here and, elsewhere, are willing to acknowledge. 
 

Where and how can I be suspected of slanting or prejudicing posts based on the above? Is it the source I provided that raises the question. I’m interested in your perspective. 

 

The article says it's an issue for only 20% of people. Democrats have already ran and won on the border. 

[1984Echoes]

I don't have a subscription to WSJ so I can't verify on my own:

But this is what I see, and why I asked that question:

You posted THIS headline:

"Immigration is the #1 issue confronting voters as per this WSJ national poll taken in February". Bold part mine. So, immigration is THE #1 ISSUE CONFRONTING VOTERS? As per your headline of the WSJ poll? (Emphasis, all caps.. obviously mine). But it is the #1 ISSUE, which you are trying to convey, with your comments and your headline.

First off, the poll is February. Why was it just in this morning's paper? It's out of date.

Immediately after that, mtutiger posts this: "According to the poll, it's the number one issue for 20% of voters..."

In other words, it is NOT the #1 issue for voters. ACCORDING to the VERY POLL that is being referenced.

It's the #1 issue for 20% of voters, which is a FAR CRY from it being the #1 issue.

Your headline.. apologies for this... but your headline is MISLEADING.

It's a LEGITIMATE question. Are you trying to be MISLEADING ON PURPOSE?

If it's an oversight... OK, I get that.

If it's your opinion, I get that, you stated that just above.

But nothing I've said, or posted, or quoted, or asked.. is incorrect.

[Dan Gilmore]

Well @1776, you have stopped referring to “open borders”, but still use words like chaos in describing it. We all have our perspective, I I think the way you frame the issue clearly shows yours. No doubt the topic will factor in the election, we’ll see how much so.

[1984Echoes]

7 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Well @1776, you have stopped referring to “open borders”, but still use words like chaos in describing it. We all have our perspective, I I think the way you frame the issue clearly shows yours. No doubt the topic will factor in the election, we’ll see how much so.

Further...

If the WSJ poll is correct and 20% of the population is declaring it the #1 issue for them...

Well that coincides nicely with the % of the population that is MAGA and WOULD see that as the #1 issue. Republicans are, what? ~30% of registrations? Dems ~35%? And Indies ~35%? I believe that's the split.

So if MAGA is a portion of the Republican party and they are 30% of voters, then MAGA would fall in that 20-25% or so ratio, just on a WAG... Which tells me almost 100% of MAGA is against immigration (because they are) and probably see it as #1, that the WSJ 20% is probably (most likely) 90-100% MAGA, and that, THEREFORE... the REST of the country, OUTSIDE of MAGA (pretty close to zero, or at least as close as I am WAG'ging here...), does NOT see immigration as the #1 issue.

 

 

Edited April 5 by 1984Echoes

[mtutiger]

I don't really buy the premise that immigration, literally the most discussed political issue of the moment, is being slept on or downplayed here or anywhere.

[1776]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The article says it's an issue for only 20% of people. Democrats have already ran and won on the border. 

First, the poll results reflect a poll taken in February. So one has to acknowledge that opinions and attitudes are fluid. Very possible there may be a bit of change in the numbers were this poll taken again this month or next. In the same vein, I wouldn’t build my house on what any party has “already ran on.” It is April, not November. 

Secondly, it appears that the 20% of voters that currently perceive immigration as the biggest issue in the upcoming election is being overlooked on the whole of the results. If one in five already consider this as the biggest issue, that is a problem for any candidate. Additionally, as stated in the article, this same poll was also conducted in December and at that point in time immigration being cited as the top issue was only 13%. So, the suggestion here is that the immigration issue is a growing concern. 

[1776]

18 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't have a subscription to WSJ so I can't verify on my own:

But this is what I see, and why I asked that question:

You posted THIS headline:

"Immigration is the #1 issue confronting voters as per this WSJ national poll taken in February". Bold part mine. So, immigration is THE #1 ISSUE CONFRONTING VOTERS? As per your headline of the WSJ poll? (Emphasis, all caps.. obviously mine). But it is the #1 ISSUE, which you are trying to convey, with your comments and your headline.

First off, the poll is February. Why was it just in this morning's paper? It's out of date.

Immediately after that, mtutiger posts this: "According to the poll, it's the number one issue for 20% of voters..."

In other words, it is NOT the #1 issue for voters. ACCORDING to the VERY POLL that is being referenced.

It's the #1 issue for 20% of voters, which is a FAR CRY from it being the #1 issue.

Your headline.. apologies for this... but your headline is MISLEADING.

It's a LEGITIMATE question. Are you trying to be MISLEADING ON PURPOSE?

If it's an oversight... OK, I get that.

If it's your opinion, I get that, you stated that just above.

But nothing I've said, or posted, or quoted, or asked.. is incorrect.

Read my response to MB I just made prior to reading your response.

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, 1776 said:

First, the poll results reflect a poll taken in February. So one has to acknowledge that opinions and attitudes are fluid. Very possible there may be a bit of change in the numbers were this poll taken again this month or next. In the same vein, I wouldn’t build my house on what any party has “already ran on.” It is April, not November. 

Secondly, it appears that the 20% of voters that currently perceive immigration as the biggest issue in the upcoming election is being overlooked on the whole of the results. If one in five already consider this as the biggest issue, that is a problem for any candidate. Additionally, as stated in the article, this same poll was also conducted in December and at that point in time immigration being cited as the top issue was only 13%. So, the suggestion here is that the immigration issue is a growing concern. 

Good because the Democrats have solutions and voters blame Republicans.

Focus groups: Wisconsin swing voters blame GOP for failed border bill (axios.com)

[mtutiger]

'Democrats for Border Security' task force seeks to redefine the party on immigration

This is a pretty good example of how border security isn't just being ignored by the Democratic Party, fwiw.

[1776]

21 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Well @1776, you have stopped referring to “open borders”, but still use words like chaos in describing it. We all have our perspective, I I think the way you frame the issue clearly shows yours. No doubt the topic will factor in the election, we’ll see how much so.

I believe the word chaos aptly describes what the border patrol along the Arizona and Texas borders is experiencing.  

[mtutiger]

27 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Secondly, it appears that the 20% of voters that currently perceive immigration as the biggest issue in the upcoming election is being overlooked on the whole of the results. If one in five already consider this as the biggest issue, that is a problem for any candidate. Additionally, as stated in the article, this same poll was also conducted in December and at that point in time immigration being cited as the top issue was only 13%. So, the suggestion here is that the immigration issue is a growing concern. 

In general, I agree, although the partisan composition of the 20% matters quite a bit.... and I suspect, at least to an extent, that as perceptions of the economy improve, some Trump partisans are shifting their #1 issue away from that and toward immigration.

Edited April 5 by mtutiger

[ewsieg]

47 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't have a subscription to WSJ so I can't verify on my own:

TL/DR....   I have no idea the specifics of this article, but I'm confident that it confirms bias that I perceive is ongoing and i'm going to rant about it.

[1984Echoes]

3 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

TL/DR....   I have no idea the specifics of this article, but I'm confident that it confirms bias that I perceive is ongoing and i'm going to rant about it.

Go for it.

You're certainly entitled to your own opinion as is everyone...

But I think I would end up putting you in the same box as 1776 which is this:

 

36 minutes ago, 1776 said:

...  Secondly, it appears that the 20% of voters that currently perceive immigration as the biggest issue in the upcoming election is being overlooked ...

Which I believe to be NOT TRUE.

One... it is not being overlooked.

Second, one may differ on who's approach is working/ not working, but this is a highly charged issue that everyone is aware of. And I think opinion's are pretty hard-set on this issue. You state people are fluid in this area but I don't believe that. If the %'ages in a poll change, I believe it's less that people are changing their opinions (I believe they are already hard-baked and nearly unchangeable) and much more along the lines of this:

 

17 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

... I suspect, at least to an extent, that as perceptions of the economy improve, some Trump partisans are shifting their #1 issue away from that and toward immigration.

So, where you are trying to present your position 1776, and I believe you are signing onto this line of thought ewsieg?

And wanna state this:

 

39 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Read my response to MB I just made prior to reading your response.

I will say the exact same thing (I believe the MOST RELEVANT point in this whole discussion is a point that I just made above, so please read my response to Dan Gilmore):

 

49 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

... If the WSJ poll is correct and 20% of the population is declaring it the #1 issue for them...

Well that coincides nicely with ... MAGA would fall in that 20-25% or so ratio... Which tells me almost 100% of MAGA is against immigration (because they are) and probably see it as #1, that the WSJ 20% is probably (most likely) 90-100% MAGA, and that, THEREFORE... the REST of the country, OUTSIDE of MAGA ... does NOT see immigration as the #1 issue.

 

Differing opinions?

[mtutiger]

26 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Differing opinions?

I don't know that it's 90-100%. I suspect a large majority who rate the issue highly are MAGA, but not everyone. So the concern is legitimate.

Regardless, with issue polling, it's important to keep in mind that they aren't polling just swing voters, they are polling everyone. 

Edited April 5 by mtutiger

[1984Echoes]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I don't know that it's 90-100%. I suspect a large majority who rate the issue highly are MAGA, but not everyone. So the concern is legitimate.

Regardless, with issue polling, it's important to keep in mind that they aren't polling just swing voters, they are polling everyone. And for each of these candidates, not everyone is an actual, attainable voter.

Agreed.

Further... I don't believe immigration to be THE swing issue of this election.

The economy, maybe... but what I believe VASTLY overrides any other issue, as actually THE #1 issue, with respect to how someone MAY have voted one way, but will end up voting DIFFERENTLY specifically based on this one issue... is DOBBS.

That's an easy one for me. 

And I don't need a poll to confirm my bias or my opinion either... it's DOBBS as THE #1 issue that will swing the 2024 election.

IMO.

[chasfh]

On 4/4/2024 at 10:27 AM, Sports_Freak said:

Even Fox News is blaming the GOP and Trump for the border crisis;

 

They'll get amnesia about it by the time Hannity comes on.

[chasfh]

On 4/4/2024 at 10:32 AM, Motown Bombers said:

Perception on the economy is improving. There's usually a lag. Inflation was baked in in 2022. Republicans ran on inflation in 2022. Dems won and suddenly the border is the hot button issue now. 

I think it might also be a sampling issue. Who are they talking to, or more exactly, who is consenting to be polled about it? I have a hypothesis that the Trumpers are engaged on all things anti-America 24/7, so they are thrilled to death to tell pollsters how ****ty everything about America is. The people who have better things to do than engage on this stuff all the time, people who are probably moderates, I don't think they're answering their landlines and agreeing to be polled.

[chasfh]

21 hours ago, ewsieg said:

10 Bill Clintons paired up with 20 Alan Greenspans, coming off of 50 Bush Sr tax increases couldn't have handled Covid without some legitimate economic pain.

I'm not saying Trump handled it well, but democrats need to be careful how they play this argument.  With kids, folks are realizing how much shutting everything down affected them and their learning.  It wasn't the GOP that wanted them couped up alone for a couple of years.  The economy, assuming no major changes in the next 6 months, should be pretty much a non-factor, which generally supports the incumbent.  

I think it's a difference between understanding that we just didn't know the best way to respond to a once-in-a-century pandemic crisis so we erred on the side of caution, versus believing that everyone was forced to lock themselves up in their houses by the Democrats because they want to destroy America.

I will say that I believe that in a universe where the GOP gets their way and no one is quarantined at all or masks are socially outlawed, millions, with an "s", would have died of COVID just in America alone.

[chasfh]

21 hours ago, ewsieg said:

Yup, Trump certainly shouldn't be able to run on the economy either.  Just saying a bad economy tends to favor the opponent.  I understand Democrats wanting to say the economy is great to fight against any GOP push to a different agenda.  My concern is Democrats being so concerned with controlling the talking points that it works against them, for instance those pointing out it was the democrats that pushed to keep the economy shuttered longer.  Additionally I don't think the younger folks 20-30 year olds, trying to rent or buy a house, will be particularly keen to Democrats boasting about the economy.

Yes, being so concerned with controlling the talking points is the Republicans' job, and they are doing a great job of it!

[chasfh]

18 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

 

 

CERTAINLY NOT!!! 🤣🤣🤣

[ewsieg]

On 4/5/2024 at 1:03 PM, chasfh said:

Yes, being so concerned with controlling the talking points is the Republicans' job, and they are doing a great job of it!

Point taken, I guess the better way to say it is Is prefer democrats focus their taking points on reproductive rights, democracy, and a party looking for solutions (right or wrong) as I believe those are better topics to control the talking points.  

If the economy stays there way it is, no independents will be seated to vote for Trump over an economy that is relatively working for them.

[1984Echoes]

50 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

... I guess the better way to say it is I prefer democrats focus their talking points on reproductive rights, democracy, and a party looking for solutions (right or wrong) as I believe those are better topics to control the talking points.  

If the economy stays there way it is, no independents will be (enticed) to vote for Trump over an economy that is relatively working for them.

I agree with this 100%.

They should be blaring this message across every loudspeaker that they can get their hands on.

I think they are doing this. But it's at a low level right now.

I'm going to guess it's going to get louder and more pointed as we get closer to the election... So I'm not really worried.

But my patience is starting to get a little "impatient".

I'm just so sick and ****ing tired of hearing "trump, trump, trump, trump, trump, trump, trump, trump, trump..." 1,000 times a day no matter which way I turn. Can this grotesque anti-democratic scum just go the **** away? So I NEVER have to hear about him, or think about him, EVER again?!?!?!

But yeah, on your messaging point ewsieg, I agree 100%.

 

 

Edited April 6 by 1984Echoes

[Edman85]

Had a good heart to heart with a super MAGA person I always try to avoid talking politics with last night, but he says he's not voting for Trump because of the narcissism.

[casimir]

7 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Had a good heart to heart with a super MAGA person I always try to avoid talking politics with last night, but he says he's not voting for Trump because of the narcissism.

Along those lines, I noticed a neighbor that flew a Trump flag four years ago has put a Biden flag up this weekend.

[chasfh]

It's only going to get more like that as we get closer to November. The main thing we have to hope for is that the Trump party doesn't find religion and put on sheep's clothes so they can look like a normal political party until November 6.

And, also, that they don't violently overthrow the election system altogether and take power by force.