gehringer_2 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 9 minutes ago, ewsieg said: It's not like he has any personal convictions over it. Or anything else! Which puts me in mind of another question - which is that in 2016, Trump was making the argument that he was the guy who could stand up for the little guy against corporate America because he was from the inside and knew how to deal with them. At least to me at the time, that struck me as one of his more effective approaches, especially since the other 12 guys on the GOP primary podiums were all products of Paul Ryan/Ayn Rand philosophies. The 8 years since have certainly proven he is not and has never been interested in middle class economic development. So should that represent a slice of his 2020 electorate that he would have lost, or did that segment overlap too much with the MAGA culturalists for his failures on that score to matter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 6 minutes ago, oblong said: If these states didn't over play their hand with their very extreme bans and including IVF and birth control in general in their plans maybe it could have worked. As we see, there were so many state laws that essentially were forgotten about as RvW was law of the land. Now that it's gone, States are dealing with those laws. Even in blue states, i'm sure we'll continue to hear about courts rule in a "Pro-abortion" way as while they may not agree with it, it's a valid state law and they uphold it. In Michigan, Whitmer and Dems were proactive to clean up some old abortion laws before it even got to that point. In short, I think this issue gets worse for the GOP without any outside interference. Hopefully Dems stomp on it on top of that. Somewhat related, I just learned abortion is going to be on the ballot in Florida. I wonder if that alone is enough to flip the state. At minimum, I suspect Trump will have to spend a lot of money, which he doesn't have, to retain Florida. Can we get legal weed on the ballot there too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Marijuana is also on the ballot in FL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 11 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: This is a fun tool. I have no clue how useful or accurate it may be https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/build-a-voter?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email I put my dad's info in this and came back 75% Trump. He has never voted for a Republican and will be voting for Biden. I was 79% Biden. Flipping religion made a huge difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: The 8 years since have certainly proven he is not and has never been interested in middle class economic development. So should that represent a slice of his 2020 electorate that he would have lost, or did that segment overlap too much with the MAGA culturalists for his failures on that score to matter? I suspect the overlap was too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 3 minutes ago, oblong said: Marijuana is also on the ballot in FL. **** yeah! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 24 minutes ago, oblong said: If they had banned 1st trimester with language on protections for certain situations it might have been somthing they could live with. But they didn't That's the thing, they can't get there, because the religious foundation of their abortion/IVF position starts from a point already at the limit. If 'Life beings at conception' is why you believe abortion should be regulated, you are immediately at: "Abortion needs to be totally banned." There is no logical method for how to get to a shaded view like R v W from that starting point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 54 minutes ago, ewsieg said: Honestly I think Trump understands the political aspect of this issue better then most in the GOP. It's the one issue that I think he would love to completely flip the script and be pro-abortion on. In true populist form, he see's it as a losing issue and wants to be on the winning side of it. It's not like he has any personal convictions over it. Regardless if he continues to try and soften his public stance on abortion, the counter should just to continue pointing at SCOTUS and remind everyone of his role there. Totally, I think he understands the political problem. But there's a tendency to assume that just because he's doing something means it's brilliant or is guaranteed to work, and that premise is flawed IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 35 minutes ago, ewsieg said: As we see, there were so many state laws that essentially were forgotten about as RvW was law of the land. Now that it's gone, States are dealing with those laws. Even in blue states, i'm sure we'll continue to hear about courts rule in a "Pro-abortion" way as while they may not agree with it, it's a valid state law and they uphold it. In Michigan, Whitmer and Dems were proactive to clean up some old abortion laws before it even got to that point. In short, I think this issue gets worse for the GOP without any outside interference. Hopefully Dems stomp on it on top of that. Since the ruling came down and it initially became clear this was a huge liability (ie. 2022 KS Referendum + 2022 Midterms), they have been trying to find a middle-ground position on it. The uncomfortable reality that they aren't confronting, and really aren't able to confront given the composition of their party, is that Roe *was* the middle ground. Or it certainly is viewed that way by the median voter at this point in time. I think if they endorsed some sort of week-limit that acted as both a floor and a ceiling, that theoretically could work? The coalition wouldn't go for it though, and nobody trusts the party or it's principal on this issue IMO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) 1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said: I put my dad's info in this and came back 75% Trump. He has never voted for a Republican and will be voting for Biden. I was 79% Biden. Flipping religion made a huge difference. I found it interesting that the religious question makes a big difference in this particular model. If I put in Protestant the split is 75-25 Trump for my demos. Agnostic makes it 50/50. I used to classify myself a back pew Presbyterian, I'm not so sure what I am now. Playing with it a bit more, any religious belief tends to heavy favor Trump in 65+. Atheist leans heavily toward Biden, who is a practicing Catholic.. Agnostic shows the scales 50/50. Trump's background had him in the Presbyterian Church in his younger days under the leadership of Norman Vincent Peale (which explains a lot). Now he claims to be evangelical if pressed. In truth he worships money and power. Edited April 10 by CMRivdogs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 7 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: I found it interesting that the religious question makes a big difference in this particular model. If I put in Protestant the split is 75-25 Trump for my demos. Agnostic makes it 50/50. I used to classify myself a back pew Presbyterian, I'm not so sure what I am now. I personally wondered why it asked if we liked Scott Baio as an actor. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 I feel like there needs to be an additional question asking how many nights per week you watch Fox News. My father is 75% Trump but doesn't watch Fox News and has not and will not vote for Trump. His brother, who would also be 75% Trump, does watch Fox News. He's not a wild conspiracy nutcase but did vote for Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Another question: do you refer to homosexuals as "preeverts"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 On 4/9/2024 at 9:12 AM, Motown Bombers said: Republicans understand better than Democrats that Trump will say what he has to to win. Even though they hate Trump they still show up and vote. Democrats make it all about morals and purity and that's why they didn't show up for Hilary. Trump isn't going to lose from his extreme base. The extreme on the right are Trump's base, and they make up at least a quarter and maybe a third of his party. The extreme on the left are definitely not Biden's base, and they make up probably single-digit percent of the Democratic Party. Biden's true base is the establishment middle of the party, and they make up the substantial majority. The job is to get them to come out. Hanging the election on whether the extreme left votes for Biden is like hanging the election on whether the extreme right can be moved off Trump. Neither is going to happen, anyway, so the Democratic Party should go after what can be got, not after what can't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 22 hours ago, oblong said: Regarding Trump's "genius" at threading this topic Replying since this is a direct reference to my post. This is not my word, or my implication, at all. Not even close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 6 minutes ago, chasfh said: Replying since this is a direct reference to my post. This is not my word, or my implication, at all. Not even close. it wasn't. The media likes to give the impression that any pivot or move by Trump is some calculated tactic when it's really just a blowhard saying whatever words come quickest to his mouth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: ... in 2016, Trump was making the argument that he was the guy who could stand up for the little guy against corporate America because he was from the inside and knew how to deal with them. ...that struck me as one of his more effective approaches, ... since the other 12 guys on the GOP primary podiums were all products of Paul Ryan/Ayn Rand philosophies. The 8 years since have certainly proven he is not and has never been interested in middle class economic development. So should that represent a slice of his 2020 electorate that he would have lost, or did that segment overlap too much with the MAGA culturalists for his failures on that score to matter? To answer your question: Middle class MAGA White Trash Bigots firmly in Trump's pocket are definitely overlap. They're not leaving him even if they get ****ed over by him or he ****s all over the middle class... because they could care less. They have a different set of criteria. Enraged overturned Roe v Wade middle class that previously voted for him... are definitely lost to him. But not for the reason you are questioning. Christian culturalists... ??? Again... middle class economics is not their criteria. Indie middle-class moderates that voted for him previously: muddled. They SHOULD be against him based on his absolute FU to the middle class, but also democracy, and a host of other issues. So it's a bit hard to get a read in this area which is very, very... muddled. So I think your question is pretty much irrelevant... but not because it's irrelevant but, rather, there are too many other overriding issues that are drowning it out... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 7 minutes ago, oblong said: it wasn't. The media likes to give the impression that any pivot or move by Trump is some calculated tactic when it's really just a blowhard saying whatever words come quickest to his mouth. OK, sorry, I misunderstood. I thought when your put "threaded" in quotes you were referring to my post, since I also used the phrase "threading the needle" in exactly the same way as being a potential wild card for Trump's messaging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 43 minutes ago, chasfh said: OK, sorry, I misunderstood. I thought when your put "threaded" in quotes you were referring to my post, since I also used the phrase "threading the needle" in exactly the same way as being a potential wild card for Trump's messaging. Sorry for that. I was getting most of my info from the usual folks on twitter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Another entry for 2024, solid name recognition as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) Does he qualify as a natural born US Citizen? The Constitution doesn't mean born again Edited April 10 by CMRivdogs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 44 minutes ago, ewsieg said: Another entry for 2024, solid name recognition as well. What makes it almost Mr. Show-like is the Lee Greenwood song in the background. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Go for it. Bigly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Such moderation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) 11 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Such moderation And of course, widen the context and 'States Rights' still remains the clearest dog whistle ever for the white supremacy/nationalist types. So that's a twofer for Trump. Edited April 10 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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