2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

A couple of notes:

I don't know where to get a list of rule 5 eligible players, but those guys probably have to factor in as well.  At least the keepable ones.

The 3B free agent market is dreadful.  Unless a 3B is acquired via trade, I suspect they grit their teeth and roll the dice with Candelario.  He has it in him, at least he's shown it before.  Its a matter of getting that out of him.  The hitting coaches will be different.

There was some lobbying during the TV broadcast last night for Alexander to return in some capacity, maybe long reliever being his best fit.  I think he does return as he can swing between starter and reliever.  There is going to be a need to pitch 1,400 innings, and Alexander can probably give them over 100 in some sort of hybrid role, hopefully more relief innings than starting innings.

And I think the overwhelming variable in all of this is a new front office.  Harris brings new eyes to the organization.  The new GM will likely be from outside of the organization.  So, there will be different input from those seats, plus Hinch who knows the inside of the clubhouse.  Despite Hinch being hired by Avila, he seems to be distanced enough from Avila that he is a quasi new/different set of eyes.  That 40 could be burnt to the ground for all we know.

But Jack Morris, of all people, made a pretty salient point after the game.  The goal should be the playoffs, and the team could redirect towards that as more of a short term goal than a long term goal, but the type of turnaround that would be needed is tough to accomplish.  They could make the playoffs next season given enough of the right moves, but how many times do we see a 25+ game turnaround?  Drunk Uncle Jack dropping a dose of reasonable reality.  Imagine that?

Scott Harris is the obvious catalyst for all of it. Avila’s in the chair, and hardly any of these guys would be going anywhere.

But it is funny that when I was dreaming up the list at first, it was a complete overhaul in my mind. When I put it down on paper, it looked like hardly any moves at all, particularly since it resulted in guys like Willi, Brieske, and Short having even a prayer of making the team next year. But I looked carefully at each of the guys I thought might return and I saw something in all of them—decent enough performance this year, good recent seasons, solid peripherals, youth—that would warrant giving them at least one more look.

Turns out I think as many as 34 guys on the list might be worth keeping for that one morer look, a number which sure doesn’t sound like a complete overhaul after all, does it? Which maybe goes to one of Jack’s (and others’) points: given how well we seemed to do after May 8 with essentially this same squad of players two seasons ago, maybe we’re closer to turning things around enough to be interesting than it seemed to us all this season.

As for Alexander, I just don’t see how he stays. Everything about him works against it: he’s one of the softest tossers in the game; he can’t strike guys out; he gets hit really hard; he’s turning 29 next year; and he’s due for his first arb payday. The only positive thing I can say about him is that he doesn’t walk many guys, but that’s because he’s right around the zone all the time, hitters know this, and they can routinely crush him. I get that we have to field a pitching staff for 1,400+ innings next year, but if we decide that Tyler Alexander is good enough to do that for us, then I don’t think we’re going to be as far along as we hope to be.

[chasfh]

8 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I've heard rumors of it being discussed.   I would imagine a stathead like Harris is going to demand it.   I don't know the process, maybe it started already, but I know MLB has to do studies on it, so if they decided to do that now, it probably couldn't happen until 2024. .   Trust me, moving the RCF fence in 15 feet is not going to turn it into a Home Run hitters paradise.  

They’ll probably move the walls in, and I won’t be terribly opposed to it if it’s not too drastic, but it is worth noting again that Comerica played like an average park for home runs with this same fence configuration just a decade ago.

[Tenacious D]

The other 40 man roster challenge is that we essentially have to consider protecting players that would have been eligible for the Rule 5 which was canceled last year, due to the work stoppage.  So, we have two eligible groups to deal with.  From the glass is half full perspective, we also could benefit from a deeper pool of talent in the draft.  Get your party favors together. 

[casimir]

6 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

The other 40 man roster challenge is that we essentially have to consider protecting players that would have been eligible for the Rule 5 which was canceled last year, due to the work stoppage.  So, we have two eligible groups to deal with.  From the glass is half full perspective, we also could benefit from a deeper pool of talent in the draft.  Get your party favors together. 

That's a good point.

Of course, those players were acquired and "nurtured" by the Avila administration, so there might not be much to keep.

[gehringer_2]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

They’ll probably move the walls in, and I won’t be terribly opposed to it if it’s not too drastic, but it is worth noting again that Comerica played like an average park for home runs with this same fence configuration just a decade ago.

right. If Harris actually gets into numbers they will tell him the park is not the problem. Tiger team was was above average in HR as recently as 2017.

I could only see them doing something if they propose it as part of a general rehab of the facility because otherwise it would be a lot of money spend on something that is very unlikely to add a single win to any season total.

Edited October 6, 2022 by gehringer_2

[casimir]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

right. If Harris actually gets into numbers they will tell him the park is not the problem. Tiger team was was above average in HR as recently as 2017.

I'm worried about the contents, not the packaging.

[oblong]

I'm not saying move the fences in to make the team better.  I'm saying move it in because I think the product on the field is degraded because of them.  The game itself.   As a fan I like success rewarded.  Someone mashes the ball correctly and is denied b/c he's in 1 of 30 parks... that makes me feel cheated. I like quality baseball.  I like when players are out at the plate because of two strong and well executed relay throws.  I like to see excellence in action.  If someone does their job they should be rewarded.

also maybe in 2017 the Tigers would have been way above average in HR.

 

[chasfh]

4 minutes ago, oblong said:

I'm not saying move the fences in to make the team better.  I'm saying move it in because I think the product on the field is degraded because of them.  The game itself.   As a fan I like success rewarded.  Someone mashes the ball correctly and is denied b/c he's in 1 of 30 parks... that makes me feel cheated. I like quality baseball.  I like when players are out at the plate because of two strong and well executed relay throws.  I like to see excellence in action.  If someone does their job they should be rewarded.

also maybe in 2017 the Tigers would have been way above average in HR.

 

For me it kind of depends on how many of those fly balls falling marginally short were caught, versus were triples. If all of them were caught I’d be more OK turning them into homers, than if we’re trading frantic plays at third base for leisurely home run trots. I already get enough of those leisurely trots on MLB Quick Pitch.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, oblong said:

I'm not saying move the fences in to make the team better.  I'm saying move it in because I think the product on the field is degraded because of them.  The game itself.   As a fan I like success rewarded.  Someone mashes the ball correctly and is denied b/c he's in 1 of 30 parks... that makes me feel cheated. I like quality baseball.  I like when players are out at the plate because of two strong and well executed relay throws.  I like to see excellence in action.  If someone does their job they should be rewarded.

also maybe in 2017 the Tigers would have been way above average in HR.

 

Guys smash the ball hard and get robbed all-the-time, everytime an IF snags a liner at 110 mph. Getting 'robbed', by a fielder, the wind, a seagull that flies by, an architectural detail - all  sort of intrinsic to the game to me. If baseball didn't have such a huge input of randomizing variables that suppressed how good the good teams are and how bad the bad teams are, it would look too much like the NBA with the good teams winning at an 800 clip and the bad ones at 200. 162 game losing season is bad enough when your bad team is at 400.

Edited October 6, 2022 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

I don't really care that much if they were to bring in the CF corners, but to me it's wasted energy worrying about someting that doesn't matter. It's a pet peeve of Lynn Hennings and won't change their path to the playoffs, so any mental, physical or financial resource the team puts in that direction is resource not spent in a direction that matters.

[Jim Cowan]

I don't know how that park factor is calculated.  Out of curiosity, if the park was neutral 10 years ago, and now it isn't, does that have anything to do with Cabrera being able to hit 20 home runs per year there 10 years ago, and now he can't?

[romad1]

Just now, Jim Cowan said:

I don't know how that park factor is calculated.  Out of curiosity, if the park was neutral 10 years ago, and now it isn't, does that have anything to do with Cabrera being able to hit 20 home runs per year there 10 years ago, and now he can't?

Might be something to that.  

[Motor City Sonics]

37 minutes ago, chasfh said:

They’ll probably move the walls in, and I won’t be terribly opposed to it if it’s not too drastic, but it is worth noting again that Comerica played like an average park for home runs with this same fence configuration just a decade ago.

But as Rob brought up, there is a mentality involved and for the road players it's no big deal, for the home guys it's day after day of playing in a canyon.   They need to fix it.   And if it ends up tipping toward the home run side of the ledger, it probably won't be by much.    It's just ridiculous.      I think it plays like an average part because the corners are normal.   I don't think they need to mess with CF too much, but those power alleys are nuts.  

[RatkoVarda]

if Harris decides Alexander does not fit what he wants, no objections to him moving on from Tyler.

one horrible thing bad franchises do is hold on to marginal, homegrown talent too tightly for far too long (an extension of the overvaluing problem)

but, I also doubt in one off season the Tigers are going to be in a position to jettison all their marginal talent (they sure have a lot of it), and they will need innings over 6 months.

so, if all it costs is a 40-man roster spot then Alexander, Brieske, Faedo, HIll and Soto to me are keepers for now, with the caveat that none appear to more than middle relievers and/or 6-7 starters types (which every team needs)

 

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

I don't know how that park factor is calculated.  Out of curiosity, if the park was neutral 10 years ago, and now it isn't, does that have anything to do with Cabrera being able to hit 20 home runs per year there 10 years ago, and now he can't?

park factors should not be affected by bad or good team playing in the park, but my casual observation over the years is that they tend to be anyway. I have no explanation for that though.

Well, while baseball teams are happy enough to put up huge scores on one another, maybe the opposition does plays down to the level of a bad offensive home team just enough that it does show up in the park factors.

Edited October 6, 2022 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

57 minutes ago, chasfh said:

As for Alexander, I just don’t see how he stays.

If you're going to designate him as your long reliever/emergency starter, maybe, but Hinch's love affair with him as starter does have to end.

Edited October 6, 2022 by gehringer_2

[oblong]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Guys smash the ball hard and get robbed all-the-time, everytime an IF snags a liner at 110 mph. Getting 'robbed', by a fielder, the wind, a seagull that flies by, an architectural detail - all  sort of intrinsic to the game to me. If baseball didn't have such a huge input of randomizing variables that suppressed how good the good teams are and how bad the bad teams are, it would look too much like the NBA with the good teams winning at an 800 clip and the bad ones at 200. 162 game losing season is bad enough when your bad team is at 400.

I would argue that the IF snagging a 110 mph meant the hitter put it in the wrong spot.  That's within the bounds of competition.  Hitter got beat by an opposing competitor who also did his job well. 

 

 

[Sports_Freak]

16 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

if Harris decides Alexander does not fit what he wants, no objections to him moving on from Tyler.

one horrible thing bad franchises do is hold on to marginal, homegrown talent too tightly for far too long (an extension of the overvaluing problem)

but, I also doubt in one off season the Tigers are going to be in a position to jettison all their marginal talent (they sure have a lot of it), and they will need innings over 6 months.

so, if all it costs is a 40-man roster spot then Alexander, Brieske, Faedo, HIll and Soto to me are keepers for now, with the caveat that none appear to more than middle relievers and/or 6-7 starters types (which every team needs)

 

Let the rebuilding begin. Maybe we can start competing in 2026?

[RatkoVarda]

i am not sure what "controlling the strike zone" really means, but Wenceel and Lipcius both have consistently high BB rates and low K rates. not sure if that means Harris will be more likely to add them to 40 before rule 5 draft.

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

i am not sure what "controlling the strike zone" really means, but Wenceel and Lipcius both have consistently high BB rates and low K rates. not sure if that means Harris will be more likely to add them to 40 before rule 5 draft.

The Rule 5 consideration is a decent one...

In theory, they could keep a few of the Zack Shorts or Brendon Davis's of the world, but they are going to have to make room for some of these other guys if they want to ensure they stay. And Lipcius and Perez both look like guys who have a good argument to stick around, along with more obvious choices like Parker Meadows.

The other thing that hasn't been mentioned as much is trades... it's hard to speculate on who or what guys could be traded, but one imagines there will be trades this offseason that none of us see coming.

[Tenacious D]

for all of this talk of blowing up the roster, where do we think we will be sourcing better players?  All via free agency?  Signing 6-8 free agents?  I think that's unlikely.  I think we all agree we have few tradable assets in the organization, due to injuries and poor performances, so upgrading talent via trades will be a longer term play.  The draft is an even longer term play.

As has been previously mentioned, this team will need to have 8-9 viable starters between Detroit and Toledo.  To me, that puts Brieske, Hill, Alexander and Garcia in the mix.  We don't know the extent of Manning's injury, and can't count on Mize, Skubal, and potentially, Manning.  That leaves Eduardo Rodriguez and four other guys.  Just to start the season, and doesn't account for injuries.

We're going to need to be patient with Harris--I think his hands are tied this offseason. 

[chasfh]

13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

If you're going to designate him as your long reliever/emergency starter, maybe, but Hinch's love affair with him as starter does have to end.

I don't think it's really a matter of love affair. I think it's more a matter of if you don't start Alexander, then who else ya got?

I think A.J. has gotten way too much criticism for trying to make the best of the garbage he'd been given to work with, as if he were bypassing available all stars to start AAAA players like Alexander in their place. And not just on the mound, but just about everywhere else. Yeah, Willi started a lot in the outfield, but who else ya got? Schoop started at 2B every day even though he was the worst hitter in the league all year, but who else ya got? Harold Castro sucks anywhere you put him and twice as much at first base, but who else ya got? How many times did posters in this forum lobby for this player or that to come up from Toledo so they could displace the suck at whatever position we were all whining about at the time, only to see them do as bad or worse? It's not A.J.'s fault that his options were so limited.

The only thing along these lines I can really blame A.J. for is not moving Soto out of the closer spot when Lange was a better choice early, and when Joe Jimenez was a far better choice than both later. I mentioned yesterday that it may not have mattered once it became clear that we were gonna lose almost 100 games anyway, so why break things and ruffle feathers for no reason, but installing Joe as closer at any point after the All Star break would have been as close to an inarguable no-brainer move as any he could have made.

[mtutiger]

23 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

As has been previously mentioned, this team will need to have 8-9 viable starters between Detroit and Toledo.  To me, that puts Brieske, Hill, Alexander and Garcia in the mix.  We don't know the extent of Manning's injury, and can't count on Mize, Skubal, and potentially, Manning.  That leaves Eduardo Rodriguez and four other guys.  Just to start the season, and doesn't account for injuries.

The caveat on this is how aggressive they may be on guys like Olson or Madden or Flores; all of whom seem like possibilities for debut in 2023

But even with that, I would rather they not be relying on or rushing these guys for the sake of rushing them, which leaves the depth guys mentioned as good possibilities to stick around IMO

Edited October 6, 2022 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

50 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

I don't know how that park factor is calculated.  Out of curiosity, if the park was neutral 10 years ago, and now it isn't, does that have anything to do with Cabrera being able to hit 20 home runs per year there 10 years ago, and now he can't?

According to MLB.com:

Ballpark factor, at its most basic, takes the runs scored by Team X (and its competitors) in Team X's home ballpark and divides the figure by the runs scored by Team X and its competitors in Team X's road contests. Often times, that number will be ever-so-slightly adjusted if a team doesn't play the same opponents at home as on the road.

For example: In 2018, 849 runs were scored at Coors Field, and 676 runs were scored in Rockies games away from Coors Field. Coors Field had a park factor of 1.271, when looking at runs scored.

The same exercise can be done with other stats, such as home runs, triples, doubles, etc.

I don't know whether the calculation is exactly this simple, but even if not it's really close.

We had a sidebar about park factors in one of the game threads a few weeks ago, during which I had found this web page with historical park factors for Comerica basically showing how wide-ranging park factors for home runs have been even absent any changes in configuration. One of the things the page shows is how historically significant environmental factors (e.g., weather) have likely suppressed homers in just the past couple of seasons.

[Jim Cowan]

I wouldn't worry about ruffling feathers by changing bullpen roles.  Guys are trying to win.  I think feathers would be ruffled enough by seeing Grossman stink it up every night in July, and trot out there again the next night.  Guys are trying to win, and they would like to believe that the management is headed in the same direction.  Make the obvious changes or lose the room.