SoCalTiger Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Jim Cowan said: I think that it is not on the table anymore, at least I hope not, because they signed Baez. So, the job is filled now. I think that their offer was in good faith. They were saying that they would do the 10 years, which for many people is the bigger obstacle than the money. They were also saying that they would not do 340, but might meet in the middle. I don't think it was intended as a performance. They have their reasons for thinking that he is not worth the Lindor money. They also probably think Lindor was not worth the "Lindor $" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 16 hours ago, Fox Wismic said: Just compare the statistics between Javy and Carlos over the last 3 full seasons. Javy beat him in every offensive category. Batting average, home runs, run scored, runs batted in, stolen bases, on base, OPS, and anything else you can think of. And he's also a gold glove shortstop. If that's declining, I hope every player on our team is declining. We'll win the World Series handily. We just took our biggest weakness and made it our biggest strength. And people are whining because Ilitch didn't spend $300 million? Compare them over the last 2 full seasons including the partial 2020 season where Correa struggled and Correa had better stats at everything except ISO and HR/PA. Compare them over the last 4 or 5 full seasons or their careers and it's the same thing. Interestingly, they have had almost identical number of PAs over their careers, which makes for an easy career comparison: Correa - Baez Singles: 178 - 176 Doubles: 162 - 160 Triples: 8 - 19 HRs: 133 - 149 Walks: 347 - 156 K: 660 - 953 BA: 277 - 264 OBP: 356 - 307 SLG: 481 - 477 OPS: 837 - 784 wOBA: 356 - 328 wRC+: 128 - 103 Bottom line: Baez has a slight edge in HR, but Correa's enormous advantage in walks makes him an elite/HoF level producer (a wRC+ of 120 or better for a career is elite), whereas Baez's wRC+ of 103 makes him an average producer overall. Don't get me wrong, I am happy with Baez, but he is hardly the equal of Correa in terms of hitting talent, and Baez at 29 is at the tail end of what is considered to be a prime age range for baseball players (26 - 29 is usually the peak performance period), whereas Correa is closer to the beginning of that range at age 27. And FWIW, I haven't seen anyone "whining" around here, just recognizing that Baez isn't the overall offensive producer that Correa is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Also, not trying to be a downer on Baez, but he is making the hard switch from NL to AL, which usually causes a significant drop in hitting performance, at least for a while. Even Cabrera had a drop-off in 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Correa gets on base and Baez doesn't, no doubt about it. We optimists are looking at Baez' OBP with the Mets and are hoping that he has discovered something. And yes good point about switching to AL, that is likely to diminish his performance a bit. Compared to JD Martinez switching to the NL, LOLOLOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyAbbott Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, chasfh said: Well, given the confirmation of the Vermeer's value you provided in a subsequent post, I'd say $12 million, or even £12 million, is itself a lowball offer to a serious seller, even in 2004. When Detroit went through bankruptcy, Detroit institute of Arts collection had to be appraised, and the original appraisal was for $50,000 for one of their VerMeer paintings, which was the purchase price when they obtained it if I recall correctly. The creditors of Detroit demanded and got an appraisal from Sotheby's and on the top 1,000 pieces the DIA owned, and the painting was appraised at 15 million IIRC. The problem is, there hasn't been a sale of a VerMeer in a long time. This means that Sotheby's number was never tested in the market. Correa's price is being tested. An initial offer is just that -- an initial offer. Bidders often bid up quickly. Correa will get paid 10/350 or more I would guess, as there will be someone who pays him close to what he wants. With the needs that the Tigers have, I am glad we got Baez. We are still at least one SP short of being a playoff team, unless we get the 14 team playoff. Hopefully the work stoppage will be settled. Edited December 28, 2021 by HeyAbbott Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyAbbott Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On another subject, does anyone out there have any real information on the negotiations between the players and the MLB? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 22 minutes ago, HeyAbbott said: When Detroit went through bankruptcy, Detroit institute of Arts collection had to be appraised, and the original appraisal was for $50,000 for one of their VerMeer paintings, which was the purchase price when they obtained it if I recall correctly. The creditors of Detroit demanded and got an appraisal from Sotheby's and on the top 1,000 pieces the DIA owned, and the painting was appraised at 15 million IIRC. The problem is, there hasn't been a sale of a VerMeer in a long time. This means that Sotheby's number was never tested in the market. Correa's price is being tested. An initial offer is just that -- an initial offer. Bidders often bid up quickly. Correa will get paid 10/350 or more I would guess, as there will be someone who pays him close to what he wants. With the needs that the Tigers have, I am glad we got Baez. We are still at least one SP short of being a playoff team, unless we get the 14 team playoff. Hopefully the work stoppage will be settled. Maybe the Tigers should have offered Correa $50,000 instead. After all, it's just an initial offer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said: Correa gets on base and Baez doesn't, no doubt about it. We optimists are looking at Baez' OBP with the Mets and are hoping that he has discovered something. And yes good point about switching to AL, that is likely to diminish his performance a bit. Compared to JD Martinez switching to the NL, LOLOLOL! JD (also Nick) went from the fly ball graveyard that is Comerica Park to home run havens in Arizona and Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 hours ago, chasfh said: JD (also Nick) went from the fly ball graveyard that is Comerica Park to home run havens in Arizona and Chicago. I was about to mention that Comerica is not a flyball grave yard, but I just looked up the numbers and noticed that home run factors have been way down the last two years after being about average for most of the park's history. Is it a fluke or has something changed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I was about to mention that Comerica is not a flyball grave yard, but I just looked up the numbers and noticed that home run factors have been way down the last two years after being about average for most of the park's history. Is it a fluke or has something changed? Do you have a link for that? I've been trying to find the Statcast version of it on baseballsavant.com and I'm coming up dry. EDIT: Never mind, some creative googling and I found it: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=2394&condition=All&rolling=0&batSide=R&tracking=All&speed=95 plus&angle=FB-angle&wowyBatSide=All Edited December 28, 2021 by chasfh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, chasfh said: Do you have a link for that? I've been trying to find the Statcast version of it on baseballsavant.com and I'm coming up dry. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2019&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=12&sortDir=desc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Just now, Tiger337 said: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2019&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=12&sortDir=desc The link I found has 23 years of historical park factors and I filtered it for right-handed hitters only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox Wismic Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I was about to mention that Comerica is not a flyball grave yard, but I just looked up the numbers and noticed that home run factors have been way down the last two years after being about average for most of the park's history. Is it a fluke or has something changed? Copa is only 5 feet different than Tiger Stadium in all measurements except CF, where Tiger Stadium was 20' deeper. The claim that Copa is so huge is a MYTH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, chasfh said: The link I found has 23 years of historical park factors and I filtered it for right-handed hitters only. You can select by year and handedness on the link I posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox Wismic Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 4 hours ago, sabretooth said: FWIW, I haven't seen anyone "whining" around here, just recognizing that Baez isn't the overall offensive producer that Correa is. Sure he is, except he strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough. You had to cut out the 3rd year and add the covid year (which was weird for lots of players) to get your stats, and even then they were at least even. You guys talk about Correa entering his prime and Baez being past it. They're only TWO years apart in age. That means Correa is only TWO years away from being past his prime, right? And you want to shell out $35M a year for 10-12 years for that? We got a bargain in Baez and dodged a bullet with Correa. And Javy gets 100 more ABs a year than Carlos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Fox Wismic said: And you want to shell out $35M a year for 10-12 years for that? I can't think of anyone here who wants to do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox Wismic Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Jim Cowan said: I can't think of anyone here who wants to do that. That's what Correa is asking, so that's what every one complaining about signing Baez instead of Correa wants to do. They offered him $28M per for 10 years and he rejected it. That means we'd have to offer MORE to get him to sign. He's a good shortstop but he's not Honus Wagner, or even Alan Trammell. No way would I want him on a Miggy-plus contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Fox Wismic said: That's what Correa is asking, so that's what every one complaining about signing Baez instead of Correa wants to do. I can't think of anyone here who is doing that. At the start of the process, the were some people here who really wanted Correa. And some who really didn't. When Baez was signed, there were some who were extremely happy, and some who weren't. But since that day, complaining about signing Baez instead of Correa? I can't think of anyone here who is doing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 37 minutes ago, Fox Wismic said: Sure he is, except he strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough. Which means he's not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 These are the OPS+ numbers for Correa and Baez Year Correa Baez 2016 124 94 2017 155 102 2018 99 129 2019 137 115 2020 93 59 2021 131 117 Correa has been a significantly better hitter each year except 2018. Baez has been more durable and comes a lot cheaper, but you can't honestly argue that he has been a better hitter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Fox Wismic said: Sure he is, except he strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough. No, he's not. The 191 walk advantage for Correa is huge, unless you consider walks to be a non-factor in terms of offensive production. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Again, I am NOT arguing that we should have offered more money than the $275M we offered to Correa. I am NOT saying I am unhappy with the Baez deal. I am NOT saying that Baez is an average player -- put together the bat and the glove at SS and the baserunning and you have an very above average/borderline elite player. I AM saying that Correa has been a much better offensive player than Baez. There's simply no question about that. Maybe Baez will close the gap somewhat or even entirely (unlikely, but it could happen in any given year). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox Wismic Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Last three seasons (minus covid outlier): HRs: JB-94 CC-62 Edge: Baez AVG: JB-279 CC-266 Edge: Baez RBIs: JB-283 CC-216 Edge: Baez Runs: JB-270 CC-206 Edge: Baez SB: JB-50 CC-4 Edge: Baez Slug: JB-526 CC-486 Edge: Baez OPS: JB-847 CC-835 Edge: wash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: These are the OPS+ numbers for Correa and Baez Year Correa Baez 2016 124 94 2017 155 102 2018 99 129 2019 137 115 2020 93 59 2021 131 117 Correa has been a significantly better hitter each year except 2018. Baez has been more durable and comes a lot cheaper, but you can't honestly argue that he has been a better hitter. That pretty much sums it up. The people who didn't want to sign Correa would argue that from 2017 through 2019 he wasn't on the field often enough. But when he's playing, he has been the better hitter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Fox Wismic said: Last three seasons (minus covid outlier): HRs: JB-94 CC-62 Edge: Baez AVG: JB-279 CC-266 Edge: Baez RBIs: JB-283 CC-216 Edge: Baez Runs: JB-270 CC-206 Edge: Baez SB: JB-50 CC-4 Edge: Baez Slug: JB-526 CC-486 Edge: Baez OPS: JB-847 CC-835 Edge: wash 40 sb is worth a portion of the walk deficiency. Though the prob with SB is some teams can take them away pretty completely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.