Eagles at Lions

[Hongbit]

16 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Campbell has already said they have an analytics guy who tells them whether to go for it on 4th down. 

I'm old enough to remember when the complaints against Caldwell were that he was too conservative. 

I am sure they have a guy.  I am not so sure that Campbell uses him as he should.   I think he puts the info into whatever else is in his mind and then goes by his gut.  

I am also not concerned about conservative vs aggressive.  I want him to make the right choices depending on the situation.   Yes, he is starting to remind me of Caldwell on game day and that’s not good.    If Jim was better between the lines when it counted then maybe he’s still the coach today.   That was his big weakness.  
 

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Campbell has already said they have an analytics guy who tells them whether to go for it on 4th down. 

I'm old enough to remember when the complaints against Caldwell were that he was too conservative. 

LOL - I think the sports world has gone insane. You can do all the analytics back to 1933 and it still doesn't tell you whether that particular day on that field, *your* RT is handling *their* LDE or instead getting manhandled by him better than your own offensive co-ordinator looking at the play by play shots in real time. There are some things in life where each event is essentially a  'one of' and statistical analysis on those things can only have limited value. Could be why the Lions' results look so random? Or put another way, the analytics can tell you what the added win probability is for the average two teams in that situation, but you still have to decide for yourself on that play if your team and the other team look anything like average that day - and that is always a judgment call on a set of *unique* circumstances and matchups for that play.

 wonder if we are getting to the point where selling analytics to sports teams has become enough of a business in it's own right that it's becoming subject to the same over-hyping kind of marketing as other businesses.

[RedRamage]

I still think the Lions will luck into at least one win... but I'm not going to be surprised at all if they go 0-17.

I was talking with my brother last night and it seems to me that the Lions are going into games where they should have a chance too uptight and worried.  It feels like in games where we just don't have any realistic shot that they play loose and free and make plays and don't worry about losing because there's no way they're supposed to win.

But so of their worst games this year have been against teams we thought they might have a shot of winning against: The Bears, the Bengals, and the Eagles.

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I am sure they have a guy.  I am not so sure that Campbell uses him as he should.   I think he puts the info into whatever else is in his mind and then goes by his gut.  

I am also not concerned about conservative vs aggressive.  I want him to make the right choices depending on the situation.   Yes, he is starting to remind me of Caldwell on game day and that’s not good.    If Jim was better between the lines when it counted then maybe he’s still the coach today.   That was his big weakness.  
 

I mean, every fan on a message forum is a better in game manager. If he never went for it on 4th down and kicked the FG and lost 44-9 instead, we would be talking about his decisions not to go for it. This is a bad team that lost what few good players it had to season ending injuries. The defense can't hold leads and the offense can't score quickly, you have to go for it. This team can't sustain drives regularly and can't stop teams consistently. 

[RedRamage]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think the sports world has gone insane. You can do all the analytics back to 1933 and it still doesn't tell you whether that particular day on that field, *your* RT is handling *their* LDE or instead getting manhandled by him better than your own offensive co-ordinator looking at the play by play shots in real time. There are some things in life where each event is essentially a  'one of' and statistical analysis on those things can only have limited value.

Well, it depends on how the analytics are done of course.  Are you looking at all teams or just the Lions? Are you looking at more modern era or older games?  And of course, the more narrow the focus, the more accurate it might be in terms of matching your team/situation, but it also means that there's more room for noise causing the results to be imperfect.

And I think we also need to know how much value is being put on analytics vs. observation.  Is Campbell looking at a situation and letting analytics overrule all other advice from his staff?  If so, that's bad.  Or is it just one more data point used in the decision making?  If so, that's probably good... depending on how much weight that data point is and how good the analytics team is.

[RedRamage]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I mean, every fan on a message forum is a better in game manager. If he never went for it on 4th down and kicked the FG and lost 44-9 instead, we would be talking about his decisions not to go for it. This is a bad team that lost what few good players it had to season ending injuries. The defense can't hold leads and the offense can't score quickly, you have to go for it. This team can't sustain drives regularly and can't stop teams consistently. 

I honestly liked going for it on 4th down.  The team needed a major spark and I didn't think going into half time 17-3 was going to make them think: "Hey, we're in this... just keep getting those FGs and we'll lick them Eagles!"

On the other hand, if you convert that 4th down, and then you push and get a TD, that's something to build on.  Then it's 17-7 and you can say: "Hey, we had a horrible half... we let them push us around too much, but we stood up tall at the end... let's go out and do more of that!"

A FG consolation prize at the end of the half just doesn't seem like a motivator to me.

Having said that, I HATED that they went empty backfield and shotgun.  That lets the defense automatically not have to worry about a heavy push at the line.  That I thought was a big mistake.

[TP_Fan]

9 hours ago, sabretooth said:

Man, the Fords need to sell this team.  There will never be a turnaround with this ownership stink in place.

I have no issue with Sheila in charge.  I’ve agreed with her decisions. I’m super happy they aren’t paying Calvin either.  

[TP_Fan]

6 hours ago, buddha said:

theyre going to be carrying a lot of dead money next year, especially if they move off from goff and flowers.

they have to get rid of all the stupid contracts quinn signed for marginal/good players.  a roster full of the average at best, buoyed by a good qb.  remove the qb and you get 0-7.

You won’t cut Goff because that dead cap is too high ($30M).  You can cut trey flowers and its $12M in dead money but $10m in cap savings.  You can keep everyone else that’s contracted (32 players).  I don’t see the lions having a dead cap problem next year.  Now if you cut Goff and just start fresh, then yes.  

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

I honestly liked going for it on 4th down.  The team needed a major spark and I didn't think going into half time 17-3 was going to make them think: "Hey, we're in this... just keep getting those FGs and we'll lick them Eagles!"

On the other hand, if you convert that 4th down, and then you push and get a TD, that's something to build on.  Then it's 17-7 and you can say: "Hey, we had a horrible half... we let them push us around too much, but we stood up tall at the end... let's go out and do more of that!"

A FG consolation prize at the end of the half just doesn't seem like a motivator to me.

Having said that, I HATED that they went empty backfield and shotgun.  That lets the defense automatically not have to worry about a heavy push at the line.  That I thought was a big mistake.

I would have ran the ball to pick up the 1st down, called timeout, and take one shot to the end zone. I read on Twitter that only Swift was looking back for the ball so it looks like they were calling a play for the end zone but the pass rush got there before the play could develop. Too aggressively of a play call. They struggle to get inside the red zone, so when you are there, you need TDs. 

[TP_Fan]

21 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I am sure they have a guy.  I am not so sure that Campbell uses him as he should.   I think he puts the info into whatever else is in his mind and then goes by his gut.  

I am also not concerned about conservative vs aggressive.  I want him to make the right choices depending on the situation.   Yes, he is starting to remind me of Caldwell on game day and that’s not good.    If Jim was better between the lines when it counted then maybe he’s still the coach today.   That was his big weakness.  
 

At this rate, the lions should never punt again.  I have no problem with going for it on 4th down. The problem is the play calls by Lynn and Goff being the worst QB in the league.  Kicking FGs isn’t going to get you anywhere. 

[Stanley70]

1 minute ago, TP_Fan said:

You won’t cut Goff because that dead cap is too high ($30M).  You can cut trey flowers and its $12M in dead money but $10m in cap savings.  You can keep everyone else that’s contracted (32 players).  I don’t see the lions having a dead cap problem next year.  Now if you cut Goff and just start fresh, then yes.  

They are cutting Flowers post June 1 and either cutting Vitai or restructuring him. After that they should have about 55 million to spend. Enough to bring in WR and a corner. 

 

[TP_Fan]

Just now, Stanley70 said:

They are cutting Flowers post June 1 and either cutting Vitai or restructuring him. After that they should have about 55 million to spend. Enough to bring in WR and a corner. 

 

Thanks for the clarification.  

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, TP_Fan said:

You won’t cut Goff because that dead cap is too high ($30M).  You can cut trey flowers and its $12M in dead money but $10m in cap savings.  You can keep everyone else that’s contracted (32 players).  I don’t see the lions having a dead cap problem next year.  Now if you cut Goff and just start fresh, then yes.  

Those are pre-June cuts. Goff can be cut post June 1st and it's a $20 million dead cap and $10 million in cap space. I find it unlikely they do it. Flowers is $7 million dead cap post June 1st and they would save $16 million. He's probably good as gone next year. 

[TP_Fan]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Those are pre-June cuts. Goff can be cut post June 1st and it's a $20 million dead cap and $10 million in cap space. I find it unlikely they do it. Flowers is $7 million dead cap post June 1st and they would save $16 million. He's probably good as gone next year. 

What’s the best site for pre and post June 1 cuts in regards to cap space?

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, TP_Fan said:

What’s the best site for pre and post June 1 cuts in regards to cap space?

I like Sportrac. If you click on the dead cap amount, it gives a pre and post June cap savings. 

Jared Goff Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

[Hongbit]

What does it really matter how much dead cap they have next year?  It’s not like they are going to get out and spend on big FA additions next year.   They need to make sure they are in a good cap position for 2023.  

[Motown Bombers]

7 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

What does it really matter how much dead cap they have next year?  It’s not like they are going to get out and spend on big FA additions next year.   They need to make sure they are in a good cap position for 2023.  

I'm more about being able to get rid of the last remnants of the Quinn regime such as Flowers and Vaitai. Both can be cut and free up cap space. The Lions are looking really good cap wise for 2023. They will be able to get out of the Goff contract, and the only player on the current roster right now that would be in line for a salary increase/extension is Hockenson. 

[Hongbit]

Just watched the end of the half again and it’s a combination of all the issues I had with Campbell.   Despite a few dumb penalties, they had a nice drive going.   Sitting 2nd and 5 from the Eagles 26 with 2 TO’s.   Goff checks down like always to Swift and he fails to get out of bounds a yard short of the marker with 34 seconds left.  Rather than call a TO on 3rd down and set a play to get the 1st and a plan a few end zone shots, he rushes to the line with the clock running and trying to catch them off guard and for the umpteenth time this season the Lions don’t execute while rushing to the line for a crucial play.   Goff hands to Swift who doesn’t get the first down.   Instead of sitting 3rd and 1 on the 21 with 34 seconds they are 4th and inches on the 20 with 13 seconds.  I would’ve kicked the FG here but the mistake was already made. If he wanted to go for a TD they needed to call TO on 3rd down and preserve time and downs.  

Edited November 1, 2021 by Hongbit

[Hongbit]

9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm more about being able to get rid of the last remnants of the Quinn regime such as Flowers and Vaitai. Both can be cut and free up cap space. The Lions are looking really good cap wise for 2023. They will be able to get out of the Goff contract, and the only player on the current roster right now that would be in line for a salary increase/extension is Hockenson. 

This we can agree.  No need to worry about dead cap for next year and use it to clear the dead weight that won’t be part of 2023 and beyond. 

[buddha]

30 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

What does it really matter how much dead cap they have next year?  It’s not like they are going to get out and spend on big FA additions next year.   They need to make sure they are in a good cap position for 2023.  

so they can have the money to sign baker mayfield...

/ducks

[buddha]

campbell going for it consistently on 4th down has been great.  good to see it.  the special teams trickery against the rams was great.

he has a team with nothing and is trying to generate possessions and points wherever he can.  the alternative is for every game to be like the eagles game.

the lions have executed poorly because they are a bad team with not many talented players and a horrific player at the most important position in the game.  i dont think that's bad coaching, i think that's bob quinn being a bad general manager.

[Hongbit]

9 minutes ago, buddha said:

campbell going for it consistently on 4th down has been great.  good to see it.  the special teams trickery against the rams was great.

he has a team with nothing and is trying to generate possessions and points wherever he can.  the alternative is for every game to be like the eagles game.

the lions have executed poorly because they are a bad team with not many talented players and a horrific player at the most important position in the game.  i dont think that's bad coaching, i think that's bob quinn being a bad general manager.

I believe they execute poorly in short yardage because the coaching staff keeps trying to outsmart the other team by rushing to the line to try and catch them off guard and instead hurt their own execution.   It’s dumb.  If he wants to go on 4th down, slow it down and get them on the same page and call a great play.   How many more times are they going to continue this idiotic trend of going no huddle, up tempo on game changing plays and failing.   

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

LOL - I think the sports world has gone insane. You can do all the analytics back to 1933 and it still doesn't tell you whether that particular day on that field, *your* RT is handling *their* LDE or instead getting manhandled by him better than your own offensive co-ordinator looking at the play by play shots in real time. There are some things in life where each event is essentially a  'one of' and statistical analysis on those things can only have limited value. Could be why the Lions' results look so random? Or put another way, the analytics can tell you what the added win probability is for the average two teams in that situation, but you still have to decide for yourself on that play if your team and the other team look anything like average that day - and that is always a judgment call on a set of *unique* circumstances and matchups for that play.

 wonder if we are getting to the point where selling analytics to sports teams has become enough of a business in it's own right that it's becoming subject to the same over-hyping kind of marketing as other businesses.

Great point.

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, TP_Fan said:

I have no issue with Sheila in charge.  I’ve agreed with her decisions. I’m super happy they aren’t paying Calvin either.  

Is there some impact to the team's cap by virtue of what happens with his signing bonus?  I'm honestly wondering if there is a practical angle here that fans should care about.

[sabretooth]

It's too early to tell whether Sheila has made good decisions or not.  I cannot possibly give her the benefit of the doubt since she either (a) has no track record to speak of and/or (b) she was or should have been influential with ownership decisions before she was publicly handed the reins, and therefore she is responsible to some extent for the current mess going back some indeterminate period of time.

All I know is that every f'ing member of the Ford family who has tried to make decisions about this organization has been a complete and utter historic-level screw-up.  Why the hell should anyone give any member of this family the benefit of the doubt until they prove they can bring a level of success?

Edited November 1, 2021 by sabretooth