Dem implosion

[pfife]

4 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Not sure either on that part. However inflation is the dems worst case scenario, these numbers are alarming. R's will ride this to the polls.

I agree that it's a really bad scenario and arguing about whether they're actually responsible for it is futile in terms of winning elections

[1984Echoes]

6 hours ago, pfife said:

I agree that it's a really bad scenario and arguing about whether they're actually responsible for it is futile in terms of winning elections

Correct.

So we better hope this really is temporary and, during this winter (when the economy slows down naturally, at least a little bit), that inflation tempers relatively quickly.

Personally, I still think this is an inflation blip due to restarting the economy from 20%-to-99% speed due to the pandemic. And things will get back to normal by March. Just in time for campaigning season...

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

Correct.

So we better hope this really is temporary and, during this winter (when the economy slows down naturally, at least a little bit), that inflation tempers relatively quickly.

Personally, I still think this is an inflation blip due to restarting the economy from 20%-to-99% speed due to the pandemic. And things will get back to normal by March. Just in time for campaigning season...

It's mostly supply chain. But yeah, it really doesn't matter in the end.

[gehringer_2]

37 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

It's mostly supply chain. But yeah, it really doesn't matter in the end.

it's also inflation in the absence of much or any interest rate increase and that is significant. It's when inflation drives up interest rates and the price of car loans and mortgages head up that people really feel the pinch.

When we stop hearing re-fi ads that's when the Admin will be in big trouble on inflation.

[oblong]

People are flush with cash from stimulus money and just general savings from working from home, lockdowns, etc.  they are spending money and that’s increased demand and you add in worker shortages it’s a perfect storm. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[mtutiger]

8 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

To the extent they noticed it, it was because of how she said "the". Can't make it up.

Its fair to question Kamala's ceiling, but the way the political media has covered her beat seems pretty shallow to me.

Edited November 14, 2021 by mtutiger

[oblong]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

To the extent they noticed it, it was because of how she said "the". Can't make it up.

Its fair to question Kamala's ceiling, but the way the political media has covered her beat seems pretty shallow to me.

I didn’t know what this was about until now. I just heard rumblings about her trying to sound french. 
 

I ask just said “the infrastructure bill” and noticed I said “thee”.  I believe I say it like that for any instance the word after starts with a vowel.  
 

this has tan suit written all over it 

[chasfh]

15 hours ago, oblong said:

I didn’t know what this was about until now. I just heard rumblings about her trying to sound french. 
 

I ask just said “the infrastructure bill” and noticed I said “thee”.  I believe I say it like that for any instance the word after starts with a vowel.  
 

this has tan suit written all over it 

Waaaay ahead of you ...

Edited November 15, 2021 by chasfh

[Tigeraholic1]

On 11/14/2021 at 7:25 PM, oblong said:

I didn’t know what this was about until now. I just heard rumblings about her trying to sound french. 
 

I ask just said “the infrastructure bill” and noticed I said “thee”.  I believe I say it like that for any instance the word after starts with a vowel.  
 

this has tan suit written all over it 

 

[buddha]

new abc poll has 51% of registered voters planning to vote republican in the midterms vs 41% democrats.  

that's the biggest margin for republicans in this poll in over 40 years.

[oblong]

Not good for the Dems but I also remember when it looked like Clinton and Obama were dead a year into their term. We shall see. 

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, oblong said:

Not good for the Dems but I also remember when it looked like Clinton and Obama were dead a year into their term. We shall see. 

I tend to think that a lot of his troubles are tied up with supply chain/inflation issues. And the good news is that is something that will likely alleviate some in 2Q 2022. Whether that would result in better numbers remains to be seen.

But yeah, if the election were held today, it wouldn't be great... it wouldn't be as bad as 2010 just due to how many reach seats the Ds held at that time, but you could easily see 30-40 gone.

Edited November 19, 2021 by mtutiger

[buddha]

8 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I tend to think that a lot of his troubles are tied up with supply chain/inflation issues. And the good news is that is something that will likely alleviate some in 2Q 2022. Whether that would result in better numbers remains to be seen.

But yeah, if the election were held today, it wouldn't be great... it wouldn't be as bad as 2010 just due to how many reach seats the Ds held at that time, but you could easily see 30-40 gone.

in a way, the narrative has become so bad for the dems that unless its a colossal republican wave it will look like the dems did better than expected!

but it aint looking good.  and lets remember that every administration gets trounced in the first mid terms, even popular ones like obama and reagan.  

a relatively unpopular president plus inflation?  oh boy.  landslide.

[mtutiger]

17 minutes ago, buddha said:

in a way, the narrative has become so bad for the dems that unless its a colossal republican wave it will look like the dems did better than expected!

but it aint looking good.  and lets remember that every administration gets trounced in the first mid terms, even popular ones like obama and reagan.  

a relatively unpopular president plus inflation?  oh boy.  landslide.

I get it. I've never been of the view that the Dems were favored to hold in 2022.

But its also a year away... let's see what happens going forward and see how it impacts Biden's JA. We're already seeing some stories about the logjam at SoCal ports easing and, IIRC, Goldman is now suggesting that inflation could be back down to 3-4% IN Q2 of 2022.

Obviously, if they held the elections today, they'd lose a lot of seats. Just making the point that the things affecting us today may not be the same things affecting us next year.

Edited November 19, 2021 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I get it. I've never been of the view that the Dems were favored to hold in 2022.

But its also a year away... let's see what happens going forward and see how it impacts Biden's JA. We're already seeing some stories about the logjam at SoCal ports easing and, IIRC, Goldman is now suggesting that inflation could be back down to 3-4% IN Q2 of 2022.

Obviously, if they held the elections today, they'd lose a lot of seats. Just making the point that the things affecting us today may not be the same things affecting us next year.

I won't be surprised if the Dems blow it, but OTOH, Biden was being left for dead a year before the 2020 election as well. Could be they are politically incompetent, could be they are playing a longer game than the 24 hr news cycle. I can hope for the latter, won't be surprised by the former!

[1984Echoes]

2022: this country will be on a roll...

No Dem wipeout at midterms.

[mtutiger]

19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I won't be surprised if the Dems blow it, but OTOH, Biden was being left for dead a year before the 2020 election as well. Could be they are politically incompetent, could be they are playing a longer game than the 24 hr news cycle. I can hope for the latter, won't be surprised by the former!

I think they are playing a bit of a longer game, but the history is what it is.... President's typically lose seats in a midterm, sometimes quite a few.

What I would suggest is that because, for better or worse, there's so little daylight these days between a President's JA and voting intention for Congress (because of polarization), that could redound to the D's benefit in the event that Biden were to go up from the 42-43 that he's at now up to around 49-51. But that's gonna require changes to the status quo in terms of inflationary pressure on things like gas prices or food costs (ie. things people notice)... not to mention on COVID

I will say that the tendency of political pundits to look at everything going on right this moment through a midterm lens despite the fact that we are a over 11 months away from the midterm probably undersells the possibility that we may be debating an entirely different set of issues in October 2022.

Edited November 19, 2021 by mtutiger

[buddha]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

I think they are playing a bit of a longer game, but the history is what it is.... President's typically lose seats in a midterm, sometimes quite a few.

What I would suggest is that because, for better or worse, there's so little daylight these days between a President's JA and voting intention for Congress (because of polarization), that could redound to the D's benefit in the event that Biden were to go up from the 42-43 that he's at now up to around 49-51. But that's gonna require changes to the status quo in terms of inflationary pressure on things like gas prices or food costs (ie. things people notice)... not to mention on COVID

I will say that the tendency of political pundits to look at everything going on right this moment through a midterm lens despite the fact that we are a over 11 months away from the midterm probably undersells the possibility that we may be debating an entirely different set of issues in October 2022.

as you said, the democrats will lose seats because the party in power ALWAYS loses seats. no matter what.

if the economy is still doing well and inflation is under control, the democrats will lose less seats.  but something will go wrong between now and then - it always does - and the party in power will be blamed regardless of fault.

lots of time between now and november 2022.

[Motown Bombers]

Best thing that can happen for Democrats is Youngkin starts rolling back rights in Virginia and it gives a wakeup call to Democrats. My guess is it won't since we had Texas as an example. At least Democrats win their purity contests. 

[mtutiger]

28 minutes ago, buddha said:

as you said, the democrats will lose seats because the party in power ALWAYS loses seats. no matter what.

if the economy is still doing well and inflation is under control, the democrats will lose less seats.  but something will go wrong between now and then - it always does - and the party in power will be blamed regardless of fault.

lots of time between now and november 2022.

Sure. Point being that things will change. We will be debating different things 11 months from now.

[buddha]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Sure. Point being that things will change. We will be debating different things 11 months from now.

oh i dont know, we always seem to debate the same stuff on here.  lol.

🙂

[Mr.TaterSalad]

4 hours ago, buddha said:

as you said, the democrats will lose seats because the party in power ALWAYS loses seats. no matter what.

A nimrod like George Bush actually gained seats in his first midterm election in 2004 in the House. So not always. Granted, that was likely 9/11 related.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

A nimrod like George Bush actually gained seats in his first midterm election in 2004 in the House. So not always. Granted, that was likely 9/11 related.

you just explained the exception to the rule.

[oblong]

One reason presidents lose house seats is their coattails. When that person doesn’t have the president at the top of the ticket they miss out 

Did Biden have coattails?  There also redistricting to consider.  And a different landscape. We are personality driven and with Trump in the picture Im not sure conventional wisdom applies.