The Tigers are nearing agreement with Eduardo Rodríguez

[RatkoVarda]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/tigers-nearing-deal-with-eduardo-rodriguez.html

 

[RandyMarsh]

I love it! Rodriguez was one of the 2nd tier SPs that I most coveted. If Fetter can work his magic on him he could be a stud here. 

[buddha]

5 years 80 million?

[RatkoVarda]

5/77 to 5/80 per Passan, for age 29-33 seasons

Edited November 15, 2021 by RatkoVarda

[mtutiger]

That strikes me as being... not bad, terms wise?

[RatkoVarda]

if current system holds, Tigers forfeit their 3rd round pick (#85 or so).

[RandyMarsh]

Fangraphs predicted him to get 4/80 so 5/77 seems like a small bargain, also there is an opt out after year 2 so we may not even be on the hook for that whole amount. 

[chasfh]

I like it for three years. I’m a little more nervous about four. Not as happy if it’s five-plus, which it looks like. Looks like we still have to punt on the back half of contracts to get people to come here.

[Ancient Fan]

9 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Fangraphs predicted him to get 4/80 so 5/77 seems like a small bargain, also there is an opt out after year 2 so we may not even be on the hook for that whole amount. 

Hope that's a mutual opt out.

[RedTeamGo!]

Wow, great signing. 

He had a high ERA last year, but his FIP was 3.32. In fact, he has not had a FIP over 4.00 since his age 23 season in 2016. Last year had a 10.6/2.7 K/BB ratio. Thats fantastic. At 28 is just entering his prime. 

 

[RandyMarsh]

If he pitches well the first 2 years like the Tigers hope and expect he will almost surely opt out so unless he's a bust from day 1 we shouldn't have to be on the hook for more than 2 years unless we choose to renegotiate a new contract if/when he opts out.  

Edited November 15, 2021 by RandyMarsh

[Tiger337]

I approve of this signing.  It sounds like just about everyone else does too.  

[Tenacious D]

I can't see how anyone can complain about this--this is an excellent signing.  I had Stroman on my wish list, but this is a nice consolation prize.

Now let's go get a SS.

[Ancient Fan]

I'm still on the fence. He gave up a lot of hits/inning last year which ballooned his ERA. Maybe someone can find the Red Sox range factor compared to the league last year to see if his defense was a little slow.

[chasfh]

9 minutes ago, Ancient Fan said:

Hope that's a mutual opt out.

Is there such thing as a team opt out? I’m having trouble seeing any decent free agent agreeing to that.

I do see there is a no-trade clause, which is kind of interesting. I interpret that as an assurance by team to player that the team are truly serious about contending and are not going to just jerk player around and sell him off for prospects this year or next. I like that idea.

[Archie]

I like this move if they can get it done. They will still be lookingfor addition pitchers too.

[Ancient Fan]

I think from the team perspective it would be an option year.

[Motown Bombers]

22 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I like it for three years. I’m a little more nervous about four. Not as happy if it’s five-plus, which it looks like. Looks like we still have to punt on the back half of contracts to get people to come here.

A 28 year old isn't signing for just three years. 

[RandyMarsh]

4 minutes ago, Ancient Fan said:

I'm still on the fence. He gave up a lot of hits/inning last year which ballooned his ERA. Maybe someone can find the Red Sox range factor compared to the league last year to see if his defense was a little slow.

He's in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage(technically 87th there) which tells me that he is getting terribly unlucky.  Usually guys that give up that low of EVs have a good BABIP not a bad one. 

[RatkoVarda]

6 minutes ago, Ancient Fan said:

I'm still on the fence. He gave up a lot of hits/inning last year which ballooned his ERA. Maybe someone can find the Red Sox range factor compared to the league last year to see if his defense was a little slow.

his ERA and BABIP were crazy high because of Fenway and the Red Sox D suxxed; his EV was very low; all the deeper metrics says he is better than his ERA 

[Ancient Fan]

2 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

He's in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage(technically 87th there) which tells me that he is getting terribly unlucky.  Usually guys that give up that low of EVs have a good BABIP not a bad one. 

This makes me think even more he had a bad defense behind him. Hopefully, Detroit's will be better.

Edited November 15, 2021 by Ancient Fan
Update

[RatkoVarda]

FG

13. Eduardo Rodriguez*, SP, Age 29

Contract Estimate

Type	Years	AAV	Total
Ben Clemens	4	$20.0 M	$80.0 M
Median Crowdsource	4	$18.0 M	$72.0 M
Avg Crowdsource	3.81	$18.2 M	$69.3 M

2022 Steamer Projections

IP	BB%	K%	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR	RA9-WAR
185.0	7.8%	26.2%	44.4%	3.65	3.68	3.72	3.7	3.8

Ben’s Take
Good pitching is hard to come by. You can’t always check every box, which is why teams will back up a truck full of money for Rodriguez despite his 4.74 ERA in 2021. He was wildly unlucky on batted balls, allowing the second-highest BABIP in baseball.

If you think Rodriguez will be less snakebitten next year, there’s a lot to like. Aside from a health scare that caused him to miss the 2020 season, he’s rarely missed a turn, making 31 starts this season and 34 in 2019. He doesn’t always give you great length — this year’s 31 starts covered only 157.2 innings — but turn a few more batted balls into outs, and the length could appear out of nowhere. Of the top 25 free agents, Rodriguez might be the least decorated — but he also might be the best bargain for a contender who believes in his peripherals.

Player Notes
Rodriguez missed the entire 2020 season due to myocarditis stemming from COVID-19 but came back to log 157.2 innings of roughly league-average run prevention in ‘21. His strikeout and walk rates were both career bests, however, and he ended up setting a career high in WAR as a result. A .363 BABIP allowed, in combination with a career-low 68.9% strand rate, oddly yielded a career-high ERA, despite everything else being seemingly very solid. A lot of these woes were mostly relegated to the first half, including a horrid May that saw him allow 24 runs in 29.2 innings; from August 1 through the end of the season, on the other hand, Rodriguez pitched to a 3.26 ERA and produced 1.7 WAR. Overall, Rodriguez isn’t a frontline starter, but he’s the type of pitcher who will do many things slightly better than league-average, culminating in a productive arm pretty much every season. At just 28, Rodriguez also has the distinction of being the youngest starting pitcher on our top 50, perhaps suggesting that he is among the likeliest candidates to receive a longer-term deal if he wants it, even though he may not be one of the flashiest names on this list.

[Ancient Fan]

The more I see the more I like. Ok, I'm in!

Edited November 15, 2021 by Ancient Fan
Update

[oblong]

I hope he opts out as that means he probably had a good 2 years and at that point let someone else take on the risk going forward.

[RandyMarsh]

Per baseball savant, just 67% of his groundballs were converted into outs this past season ranking dead last in baseball, I believe the average is around 77% so being a full 10 points worse than average is just some brutal luck.