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The Tigers are nearing agreement with Eduardo Rodríguez


RatkoVarda
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If he pitches well the first 2 years like the Tigers hope and expect he will almost surely opt out so unless he's a bust from day 1 we shouldn't have to be on the hook for more than 2 years unless we choose to renegotiate a new contract if/when he opts out.  

Edited by RandyMarsh
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9 minutes ago, Ancient Fan said:

Hope that's a mutual opt out.

Is there such thing as a team opt out? I’m having trouble seeing any decent free agent agreeing to that.

I do see there is a no-trade clause, which is kind of interesting. I interpret that as an assurance by team to player that the team are truly serious about contending and are not going to just jerk player around and sell him off for prospects this year or next. I like that idea.

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4 minutes ago, Ancient Fan said:

I'm still on the fence. He gave up a lot of hits/inning last year which ballooned his ERA. Maybe someone can find the Red Sox range factor compared to the league last year to see if his defense was a little slow.

He's in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage(technically 87th there) which tells me that he is getting terribly unlucky.  Usually guys that give up that low of EVs have a good BABIP not a bad one. 

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6 minutes ago, Ancient Fan said:

I'm still on the fence. He gave up a lot of hits/inning last year which ballooned his ERA. Maybe someone can find the Red Sox range factor compared to the league last year to see if his defense was a little slow.

his ERA and BABIP were crazy high because of Fenway and the Red Sox D suxxed; his EV was very low; all the deeper metrics says he is better than his ERA 

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2 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

He's in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage(technically 87th there) which tells me that he is getting terribly unlucky.  Usually guys that give up that low of EVs have a good BABIP not a bad one. 

This makes me think even more he had a bad defense behind him. Hopefully, Detroit's will be better.

Edited by Ancient Fan
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FG

13. Eduardo Rodriguez*, SP, Age 29
Contract Estimate
Type Years AAV Total
Ben Clemens 4 $20.0 M $80.0 M
Median Crowdsource 4 $18.0 M $72.0 M
Avg Crowdsource 3.81 $18.2 M $69.3 M
2022 Steamer Projections
IP BB% K% GB% ERA FIP xFIP WAR RA9-WAR
185.0 7.8% 26.2% 44.4% 3.65 3.68 3.72 3.7 3.8

Ben’s Take
Good pitching is hard to come by. You can’t always check every box, which is why teams will back up a truck full of money for Rodriguez despite his 4.74 ERA in 2021. He was wildly unlucky on batted balls, allowing the second-highest BABIP in baseball.

If you think Rodriguez will be less snakebitten next year, there’s a lot to like. Aside from a health scare that caused him to miss the 2020 season, he’s rarely missed a turn, making 31 starts this season and 34 in 2019. He doesn’t always give you great length — this year’s 31 starts covered only 157.2 innings — but turn a few more batted balls into outs, and the length could appear out of nowhere. Of the top 25 free agents, Rodriguez might be the least decorated — but he also might be the best bargain for a contender who believes in his peripherals.

Player Notes
Rodriguez missed the entire 2020 season due to myocarditis stemming from COVID-19 but came back to log 157.2 innings of roughly league-average run prevention in ‘21. His strikeout and walk rates were both career bests, however, and he ended up setting a career high in WAR as a result. A .363 BABIP allowed, in combination with a career-low 68.9% strand rate, oddly yielded a career-high ERA, despite everything else being seemingly very solid. A lot of these woes were mostly relegated to the first half, including a horrid May that saw him allow 24 runs in 29.2 innings; from August 1 through the end of the season, on the other hand, Rodriguez pitched to a 3.26 ERA and produced 1.7 WAR. Overall, Rodriguez isn’t a frontline starter, but he’s the type of pitcher who will do many things slightly better than league-average, culminating in a productive arm pretty much every season. At just 28, Rodriguez also has the distinction of being the youngest starting pitcher on our top 50, perhaps suggesting that he is among the likeliest candidates to receive a longer-term deal if he wants it, even though he may not be one of the flashiest names on this list.

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