Archie Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 8 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: That doesn't matter. The overwhelming hatred of him will spur 60% of the country, and that includes a massive number of Republicans/ Independents who will NOT stomach Jan 6th... to vote against him. No matter who the Dem nominee is. To Archie's point: it has to be someone other than Trump. And not Junior, either... nor Ivanka. The tricky part will be that whoever wins the Republican nomination will have to: (A) Not piss off Trump, (B) get his endorsement/ support because there's no other way to win. He's kingmaker. (C) Distance him/herself from Jan 6th in order to get back moderate Republicans (pissing off Trump), (D) Get back suburban housewives and moderate/ establishment Republicans/ Independents while NOT pissing off the white nationalist base. Who can pull that off? Nikki Haley? I don't see anyone else who can walk that exact tightrope. Wow, we actually agree on something politically. Haley was one of few people I thought able to pull it off too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 (edited) 20 hours ago, mtutiger said: I believe the polling... Trump's hardcore is only about 30% or so of the GOP. His act has wore thin in a lot of places. The issue is that, even if the polling is accurate and he garners 45-50% support in a hypothetical primary, he still wins, and the remaining 55% or so will fall in line and vote for him anyway That 30% number was the same number I was hearing before he went and got the second most votes for president in history. If polling is meant to predict election results, the accuracy in polling Trump has been lackluster at best. Edited October 10, 2021 by pfife Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 (edited) 30 minutes ago, pfife said: That 30% number was the same number I was hearing before he went and got the second most votes for president in history There are a lot of people who voted for Trump who did not like him but felt that he was the lesser of two evils. I suspect that has not changed in the last 8 mos or so. 30 minutes ago, pfife said: If polling is meant to predict election results, the accuracy in polling Trump has been lackluster at best. I'm not sure that a poll asking GOP voters if who they would like to see be nominated in 2024 is predictive of elections. Just as polls on approval alone aren't necessarily predictive either. Edited October 10, 2021 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Lol Worst jobs pres in a century Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, mtutiger said: There are a lot of people who voted for Trump who did not like him but felt that he was the lesser of two evils. I suspect that has not changed in the last 8 mos or so. I'm not sure that a poll asking GOP voters if who they would like to see be nominated in 2024 is predictive of elections. Just as polls on approval alone aren't necessarily predictive either. I'm quite sure the polling on Trump isn't predictive of trumps Performance in elections and I offer the last two elections as evidence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 minute ago, pfife said: I'm quite sure the polling on Trump isn't predictive of trumps Performance in elections and I offer the last two elections as evidence Sure. He drives turnout in a way that the likely voter models don't capture. I get it. In and of itself, though, that doesn't mean that there isn't 53% of GOP voters who would prefer a different candidate. And even if it was off, most polling misses are off by 5-10%, not 40. (ie. He'd still only be at 57% or so with primary voters) My only point is that while I believe the poll may very well be accurate, its functionally meaningless in a primary process with "winner take all" contests and with an electorate who will still suck it up and vote for him if he's on the ballot against a D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Trump might have been reelected if he had won Republican voters in the suburbs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 he could very easily be elected in 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 She says she’s not a citizen. Is she registered to vote, legally? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 17 hours ago, Archie said: I really hope that the Republican leadership comes to their senses and convinces Trump to back someone instead of running himself. I don't think the Republicans can count on running against Biden or Harris. Biden may or may not finish his term but its clear he is suffering at least mild to moderate dementia now. Harris is a terrible candidate who I doubt will get the nomination if Biden doesn't run. Republicans need to have a candidate that will unify the party and energize the 2024 ticket and I don't think Trump is the guy, especially the unify part. I don't think there's much daylight between Republican leadership and Trump.... at least from the perspective of Republican leadership. I think it's very unlikely that they will diverge from Trump. This is up to either Trump to decide not to run, or voters to reject him. just my $.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, romad1 said: Trump might have been reelected if he had won Republican voters in the suburbs. His struggles in the suburbs aren't going to get any easier either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, pfife said: I don't think there's much daylight between Republican leadership and Trump.... at least from the perspective of Republican leadership. I think it's very unlikely that they will diverge from Trump. This is up to either Trump to decide not to run, or voters to reject him. just my $.02 With all of the polling these people do how come they can't figure out that Trump has lost a lot of Republican voters. We've figured it out from our living rooms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 2 hours ago, pfife said: Lol Worst jobs pres in a century Whoever was in office would have lost that many jobs or more because of covid. A democrat POTUS probably would have lost more because they were more in favor of shutting things down and giving people more benefits for sitting home and not working. You have to look at what the economy and job situation was like under Trump before covid. The economy was booming, stock markets soaring and unemployment at all time low. Then covid happened. I get that a lot of people don't like Trump but still need to look at things realistically. I know he's a dipschmidt (my spelling is off) but under his presidency some good things did happen that a lot of people liked and our country benefited from. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 2 hours ago, mtutiger said: There are a lot of people who voted for Trump who did not like him but felt that he was the lesser of two evils. The current administration is making Trump look like the lesser of the two evils more and more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Just now, Archie said: The current administration is making Trump look like the lesser of the two evils more and more. Good God, no way. lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Archie said: With all of the polling these people do how come they can't figure out that Trump has lost a lot of Republican voters. We've figured it out from our living rooms. Part of the issue is that the Republicans Trump lost now call themselves "Independents" or "Democrats". At the end of the day, there's just a big trade going on under the surface where some contingent of old D voters (generally blue collar whites, some non-college POC) are leaning more R and some contingent of voters in suburban areas are leaning more D. And there is little evidence that this is changing. One reason, at least in Texas, why I can tell the dynamic in the suburbs isn't changing much is how the Republican legislature is drawing Congressional districts for redistricting... moves like cutting Denton out of its current district and putting it into a district with the Panhandle counties, cutting Plano/Frisco out from the rest of Collin County and putting it in a district with Texarkana.... these are all things you do when you are concerned with the trends in the existing district as-drawn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 14 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: That doesn't matter. The overwhelming hatred of him will spur 60% of the country, and that includes a massive number of Republicans/ Independents who will NOT stomach Jan 6th... to vote against him. No matter who the Dem nominee is. To Archie's point: it has to be someone other than Trump. And not Junior, either... nor Ivanka. The tricky part will be that whoever wins the Republican nomination will have to: (A) Not piss off Trump, (B) get his endorsement/ support because there's no other way to win. He's kingmaker. (C) Distance him/herself from Jan 6th in order to get back moderate Republicans (pissing off Trump), (D) Get back suburban housewives and moderate/ establishment Republicans/ Independents while NOT pissing off the white nationalist base. Who can pull that off? Nikki Haley? I don't see anyone else who can walk that exact tightrope. I don’t think Jan 6 will sway one Trump voter from 2020. I really don’t. The GOP will get behind him. Always have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, oblong said: I don’t think Jan 6 will sway one Trump voter from 2020... Yeah, we'll see about that. His high point so far is 74 million. If he runs in 2024, let's see what he ends up with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 (edited) 36 minutes ago, oblong said: I don’t think Jan 6 will sway one Trump voter from 2020. I really don’t. The GOP will get behind him. Always have. My question is whether / how Trump actually adds voters. Part of how he kept the last one close is two-fold: he managed to find more low-propensity voters and he did better with Hispanics and (to a lesser extent) black voters. He needed that given how much worse he did in the suburbs. Winning reelection, or winning the office back in this case, requires addition. Especially if trends in the suburbs continue. I could see him adding with non-college POC, but it is hard to see him turning out more low propensity voters than he did last time. But you never know. Edited October 10, 2021 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Trump might not add voters as much as Biden (or Harris) will lose them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 18 minutes ago, Archie said: Trump might not add voters as much as Biden (or Harris) will lose them. Ezra Klein with a long piece about the internal tensions in the Democratic Party over how not to lose voters. A lot of pessimism in the party over it. Not so much over Biden as the general issue that the progressives that lead the party remain toxic to the voters that the party needs to add to get to congressional majority. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/08/opinion/democrats-david-shor-education-polarization.html?searchResultPosition=4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 10, 2021 Author Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, oblong said: I don’t think Jan 6 will sway one Trump voter from 2020. I really don’t. The GOP will get behind him. Always have. I believe moderate Republicans, such as they are, are looking for any way to excuse January 6 as a mere protest, so they can get on board and vote Trump with their consciences clear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 10, 2021 Author Share Posted October 10, 2021 4 hours ago, smr-nj said: Good God, no way. lol I don’t see how allowing COVID to run wild by denying its very existence, shedding tens of millions of jobs from the economy, opening cozying up the foreign dictators, denying his own administration’s intelligence services, appointing obviously dangerously unqualified people (including family) to top jobs in his administration, openly encouraging violent racists to act, accepting emoluments because of his position as President, calling political opponents middle-school insult names, pitting states against each other for government relief, withdrawing from key international treaties, openly undermining an election still in progress, and promoting a general policy of maximizing cruelty toward people different from himself, qualifies him as being “the lesser of two evils”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: My question is whether / how Trump actually adds voters. Part of how he kept the last one close is two-fold: he managed to find more low-propensity voters and he did better with Hispanics and (to a lesser extent) black voters. He needed that given how much worse he did in the suburbs. Winning reelection, or winning the office back in this case, requires addition. Especially if trends in the suburbs continue. I could see him adding with non-college POC, but it is hard to see him turning out more low propensity voters than he did last time. But you never know. He doesn’t need to add voters. Just let the other side lose more. Let the D infighting lead to another Bernie type to run third party. He could do What Obama did in 2012… Romney lost on turnout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 (edited) 15 minutes ago, oblong said: He doesn’t need to add voters. Just let the other side lose more. Let the D infighting lead to another Bernie type to run third party. He could do What Obama did in 2012… Romney lost on turnout. I'd have to pull the numbers, but as I recall Obama actually did win over some voters who did not vote for him in 2008 and did turn out additional voters in 2012. And that played a role in his reelection. I'd also add that Mitt Romney won more votes than John McCain did as well. Practitioners of this stuff (think people like Murphy and Axelrod and Carville) tend to harp on persuasion as being critical to any candidate looking to win reelection... you need to add some new voters in to offset any losses you have from the previous election. Trump is not immune to that... how he kept it close (ie. More low propensity voters, doing better with POC) is proof. Edited October 10, 2021 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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