The 2022 Midterm Elections

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

 

That's the small government Republicans crave.

Edited October 26, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[pfife]

That's really bad.

[oblong]

That’s so bad because he’s not even going with the morality clause that all abortion is simply a sin.  By bringing the state into it he’s admitting there’s wiggle room.  

[Jim Cowan]

You could appoint - not elect - a commie-style Political Officer in each region.

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

You could appoint - not elect - a commie-style Political Officer in each region.

every ship of state needs a Zampolit

[Motown Bombers]

 

[ewsieg]

22 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I was listening to NPR this morning speak about the debate and were mentioning Fetterman struggled, which to me meant he was horrible.  But then they cut to the clip above from Oz and damn.   Sounds like he had a layup, but he not only missed, he tripped and lost the ball out of bounds.

[mtutiger]

38 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I was listening to NPR this morning speak about the debate and were mentioning Fetterman struggled, which to me meant he was horrible.  But then they cut to the clip above from Oz and damn.   Sounds like he had a layup, but he not only missed, he tripped and lost the ball out of bounds.

I didn't watch the debate, but gathered that while Fetterman did not have a good debate performance at all, Oz also had issues as well both in terms of that gaffe and in terms of general smarminess/unlikableness (which he kinda needs to improve on based on polling).

I'm guessing it didn't move the needle much

[oblong]

I saw two clips this morning, after hearing Fetterman struggled, and at least in these two clips I didn't see it.

It really is an issue of ableism.  If he can pass written competency tests then it's fine.  Being able to not process audible is a legit thing but the mind can do it.  We had that issue in my city with our mayor.  Verbally he's all over the place.  But I was told by a friend on council that he would pass a written test with flying colors.  That's all he would say.  My dad had strokes and was that way a little bit.  We wouldn't hold it against a deaf person who needed captioning or a blind person who needed audible.  This is no different.

[CMRivdogs]

33 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 

I'm guessing it didn't move the needle much

I have come to the conclusion that debates don't matter much. Fetterman has been criticized for his performance. It probably would have worse if he had backed out. More fodder from the Oz campaign to campaign on his health.

Meanwhile it seems that the Trump Party's latest abortion argument is that women aren't capable of making informed decisions. Not just from Oz's comment but if you look around they seem to be saying it's up to the state legislatures.

Anybody remember their arguments about "death panels"?   

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I have come to the conclusion that debates don't matter much. Fetterman has been criticized for his performance. It probably would have worse if he had backed out. More fodder from the Oz campaign to campaign on his health.

This is probably right... it was kind of a damned if you do situation.

My own read from reading recaps and watching a few clips this AM is that coverage on Oz' performance by the media seems somewhat muted and the focus is more on Fetterman.

It's not entirely without reason, of course, Fetterman was bad. But the muted coverage on Oz seems to overlook or ignore that, being the candidate with very high unfavorable ratings in the polls and the one who is currently trailing, he had things he needed to accomplish last night. And from what I can tell, he really didn't accomplish those goals; he committed a pretty high profile gaffe and based on some other statements (ie. "let me repeat that back since you didn't understand me") came across like a jack*** at times.

The polls may come back differently, of course, but I suspect Oz stepping on a few landmines of his own will probably hinder his gains coming out of the debate.

[ewsieg]

23 minutes ago, oblong said:

I saw two clips this morning, after hearing Fetterman struggled, and at least in these two clips I didn't see it.

It really is an issue of ableism.  If he can pass written competency tests then it's fine.  Being able to not process audible is a legit thing but the mind can do it.  We had that issue in my city with our mayor.  Verbally he's all over the place.  But I was told by a friend on council that he would pass a written test with flying colors.  That's all he would say.  My dad had strokes and was that way a little bit.  We wouldn't hold it against a deaf person who needed captioning or a blind person who needed audible.  This is no different.

He won't release any medical info though, so I do think it's somewhat concerning.  But we were ok with Strom Thurmond, we're ok with Diane Feinstein, so even if Fetterman truly isn't with it, you're still voting for a staff that will vote the way you want.

[CMRivdogs]

Thread...

 

[CMRivdogs]

2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

He won't release any medical info though, so I do think it's somewhat concerning.  But we were ok with Strom Thurmond, we're ok with Diane Feinstein, so even if Fetterman truly isn't with it, you're still voting for a staff that will vote the way you want.

Some of us weren't ok with Thurmond, Feinstein should retire immediately. My Western Pennsylvania DNA is ok with a Fetterman over some carpet bagger from NJ no matter how he votes.

But then I never had a vote in any of those races.

[oblong]

Remember McCain in the grilling of Comey in June 2017?  He went off the rails.  He had a brain tumor.  I wonder if that's a similar case of the mouth not doing what the brain wants.

[mtutiger]

36 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

He won't release any medical info though, so I do think it's somewhat concerning.  But we were ok with Strom Thurmond, we're ok with Diane Feinstein, so even if Fetterman truly isn't with it, you're still voting for a staff that will vote the way you want.

I'm not even sure they are the best comparison point for this race.... Mark Kirk, who had a massive stroke while serving in the Senate just within the past decade before losing in 2016 to Tammy Duckworth, is probably the closest allegory.

I recall him making a few verbal flubs during the race as well that may have been attributable to auditory issues, but I never recall the media making as big of a deal out of it as they are in this particular race. And the same with Duckworth's campaign, who generally would go after him when making mistakes without taking aim specifically at the fact that he had a stroke.

And just as Mark Kirk was fine to serve in the Senate, Fetterman is as well. We will have to see if the voters of PA agree.

Edited October 26, 2022 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

Here's Joe Biden and Joe Manchin assisting Mark Kirk on his return to the capitol. Note there are no republicans assisting.

[chasfh]

I have a mild ... mild ... concern that the coverage of the debate, if not the actual debate itself, will cast competency aspersions on Fetterman enough to either move independent votes to Oz or keep easily-embarrassed D voters home, tipping the scales to Oz. That in itself would be bad, but in that case the downhill effect might also be to tip the governor race to Mastriano, who gets to hire his Secretary of State beholden to him, which allows them to fix the 2024 election for Trump/R candidate, that is the difference in R winning the presidency. Very, very small possibility, although ...

[Motown Bombers]

Shapiro is running ahead of Fetterman even before the debate. If anything, Shapiro would help drag Fetterman across the line. There are more Shapiro-Oz voters than Mastriano-Fetterman voters. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[ewsieg]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

I have a mild ... mild ... concern that the coverage of the debate, if not the actual debate itself, will cast competency aspersions on Fetterman enough to either move independent votes to Oz or keep easily-embarrassed D voters home, tipping the scales to Oz. That in itself would be bad, but in that case the downhill effect might also be to tip the governor race to Mastriano, who gets to hire his Secretary of State beholden to him, which allows them to fix the 2024 election for Trump/R candidate, that is the difference in R winning the presidency. Very, very small possibility, although ...

The GOP and/or Trump will find a way to screw it up still.  I learned just this week that analysis indicates Trump would have likely won Georgia, if he hadn't dissuaded so many of his own voters from mailing in their ballots.

[mtutiger]

21 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Shapiro is running ahead of Fetterman even before the debate. If anything, Shapiro would help drag Fetterman across the line. There are more Shapiro-Oz voters than Mastriano-Fetterman voters. 

Yep, really the battleground is the suburbs around Philadelphia, Lehigh Valley and Pittsburgh in the Senate race, all of which aren't places that are suited for Mastriano and where the gap between Fetterman and Oz in terms of ideal candidate is much smaller. Not to mention that Shapiro is from Montgomery County, so Philly burbs is kinda his home turf.

Also cannot be understated how little actual campaigning / spending that Mastriano has done in the state.

People hate TV ads, but there's a reason that campaigns go up with them: to become part of the consciousness and to define yourself / others before your opponent can do it to you. Particularly in a close state like PA. Shapiro has done that and Mastriano hasn't, hence the massive lead. Much different story in the Senate race, where both candidates are visible and spending money.

I suspect that he will run independent on Fetterman as a result.

[Motown Bombers]

So Wisconsin is on the verge of having a Republican super majority in the state senate. A state in which a Republican president has only won once in since 1984. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[chasfh]

How’s this for an October surprise!

 

I honestly don’t know how Trump getting immediately unbanned from Twitter would cook the election.