romad1 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Man, political journalists are some of the most oblivious people... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Tudor is up in Marquette County. Apparently the key to winning Michigan is flipping Marquette. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 8 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: Tudor is up in Marquette County. Apparently the key to winning Michigan is flipping Marquette. What an idiot. In this state everyone knows the winning formula is to ignore anything north of Saginaw and all those large pockets of land between the real voters around Detroit, Lansing, Flint, and GR. Insinuate they are stupid as well, that'll help bring out the base. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 59 minutes ago, ewsieg said: What an idiot. In this state everyone knows the winning formula is to ignore anything north of Saginaw and all those large pockets of land between the real voters around Detroit, Lansing, Flint, and GR. Insinuate they are stupid as well, that'll help bring out the base. I don't know if you are being sarcastic or not, but Marquette County is only 66,000. It's the only blue county in the UP. The travel expenses to go all the way up there to campaign is not worth it especially for a candidate that is lagging way behind in funding. She needs to be in Macomb County and the Grand Rapids area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Stephen Colbert dished on the Tudor Dixon ad made by the Gratiot County GOP. A party committee which apparently comprises the local "Hells Funyons" chapter. "Graham Died Alone" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 anyone here still listen to Nate Silver? I find him annoying. Never really tells you anything. Everything is qualified to the max. "Well this could happen, probably won't, but if it did it wouldn't be that surprising. I don't think it will but there's a chance it will". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microline133 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 That's what happens when the mobs descend upon you because THEY don't understand the data you presented and insist you were wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Here's why you just can't trust polls or at best, can throw things into the average and call it a day. CBS's Battleground Poll measuring the generic ballot has interesting findings as it relates to their own CBS poll of Biden's approval rating. As Biden's approval rating has recovered, which they now have at 48% approval, the Republicans have actually gained a point from September to October in the generic ballot poll and went from up +1 to up +2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: Here's why you just can't trust polls or at best, can throw things into the average and call it a day. CBS's Battleground Poll measuring the generic ballot has interesting findings as it relates to their own CBS poll of Biden's approval rating. As Biden's approval rating has recovered, which they now have at 48% approval, the Republicans have actually gained a point from September to October in the generic ballot poll and went from up +1 to up +2. The insoluble problem with polling in the US is that opinion is much easier to measure than probability of action. There simple aren't any questions a pollster can ask that will reflect whether a voter is actually going to vote with anywhere near the accuracy they can measure who the voter will vote for if they do. The mismatch in American elections continues to be that it's easier to tell who people want to vote for than whether they will vote. As long a people in the US do not vote (or stay home) with more consistency, US election polling is going to continue to be problematic. I don't really see any solution in the near term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 I don't study the polls. Things look close enough that this could go either one of 4 ways equally, D landslide with the abortion issue drawing out voters, slim D lead, slim R lead, R landslide b/c of the economy. just have to wait and see. To quote Tony Soprano. "Nobody knows nothing" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 I know he'll likely lose, but Tim Ryan's takedowns of JD Vance have been really strong, political attacks. I'm sure given how few people watch these Senate debates that they won't reach the target voter unless they end up in a TV or digital ad. But still really good stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 On 10/17/2022 at 10:50 AM, oblong said: anyone here still listen to Nate Silver? I find him annoying. Never really tells you anything. Everything is qualified to the max. "Well this could happen, probably won't, but if it did it wouldn't be that surprising. I don't think it will but there's a chance it will". I still look at 538, but over the past few years he's really veered off of data and into commentary, which probably hasn't helped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 On 10/17/2022 at 12:15 PM, Mr.TaterSalad said: Here's why you just can't trust polls or at best, can throw things into the average and call it a day. CBS's Battleground Poll measuring the generic ballot has interesting findings as it relates to their own CBS poll of Biden's approval rating. As Biden's approval rating has recovered, which they now have at 48% approval, the Republicans have actually gained a point from September to October in the generic ballot poll and went from up +1 to up +2. I get a little weary of being generally told to "throw it into the average" (which is fine, polling averages are pretty useful), yet whenever a poll comes out that is more surprising or is from certain media sources, people dive into the crosstabs and try to create narratives around it. The NYT Siena poll from yesterday is an excellent example; pundits have been talking about a massive swing from September of Ind. Women (from something like +15 to -15 for Ds) and extrapolating narratives on it, yet in both cases we are talking n= values of under 150. The poll (which has R+4) may be correct, but despite the headlines and pundit discussions, demographic groups rarely shift 30 points in one month. Which suggests that people need to bear in mind the MOE for crosstabs (which are higher than the topline numbers) or just admit that one or both polls may not be representative of that particular group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I get a little weary of being generally told to "throw it into the average" (which is fine, polling averages are pretty useful), yet whenever a poll comes out that is more surprising or is from certain media sources, people dive into the crosstabs and try to create narratives around it. The NYT Siena poll from yesterday is an excellent example; pundits have been talking about a massive swing from September of Ind. Women (from something like +15 to -15 for Ds) and extrapolating narratives on it, yet in both cases we are talking n= values of under 150. The poll (which has R+4) may be correct, but despite the headlines and pundit discussions, demographic groups rarely shift 30 points in one month. Which suggests that people need to bear in mind the MOE for crosstabs (which are higher than the topline numbers) or just admit that one or both polls may not be representative of that particular group. I did not dive into the crosstabs of the poll and only read the topline numbers. Like you, I would have a hard time believing that any one group would swing +30 towards a particular party or candidate in one month, especially with today's hyper-polarized electorate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 On 10/17/2022 at 11:50 AM, oblong said: anyone here still listen to Nate Silver? I find him annoying. Never really tells you anything. Everything is qualified to the max. "Well this could happen, probably won't, but if it did it wouldn't be that surprising. I don't think it will but there's a chance it will". I think he's gotten away from data as the foundation for his punditry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 Gulp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 Lincoln Project has the best attack ads. Here they are slaying Blake Masters and Kari Lake in Arizona. I hope this ad is up on TV or digital in the state. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 Suppressing the vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 those cops will be fired soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 5 hours ago, oblong said: those cops will be fired soon It needs to be DeSantis who is impeached. Talked briefly with a Trumper about 6 months ago at dinner, with multiple other guests at the same table, listening in (a mix with the others)... I think I just made a brief comment like: "Tired of trump shitting all over the constitution..." He wasn't happy, but quickly pivoted... to: "I understand the frustration with Trump. What about anyone else but Trump? How about DeSantis?" Oh, also, the Trumper is my boss, at work... I don't think my "DeSantis is another contemptible fascist that I will never, ever vote for..." was very well received either... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben9753 Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 3 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: It needs to be DeSantis who is impeached. Talked briefly with a Trumper about 6 months ago at dinner, with multiple other guests at the same table, listening in (a mix with the others)... I think I just made a brief comment like: "Tired of trump shitting all over the constitution..." He wasn't happy, but quickly pivoted... to: "I understand the frustration with Trump. What about anyone else but Trump? How about DeSantis?" Oh, also, the Trumper is my boss, at work... I don't think my "DeSantis is another contemptible fascist that I will never, ever vote for..." was very well received either... As someone who also is surrounded by Trump cultists at work, I've learned to bite my tongue. Nothing good comes from it when there is so much passion on both sides. I don't laugh at their stupid jokes, but I don't engage either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 I'm not shy. At all. Funny... but all the Trumpers around me... family, friends, co-workers... bite their tongues around me. I let them know in no uncertain terms how corrupt, moronic, fascist, lying-out-of-their-asses, Trump and his supporters are. And they know I will pull absolutely no punches whatsoever. I want it that way. I refuse to put up with lying BS. I refuse to put up with shitting all over my democracy or the Constitution of the United States. And I'm not shy about that at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 (edited) I guess that is good news for Democrats to see early voting numbers keep pace in the midterms with 2020 numbers. I do fear that these numbers may be deceiving and that voters are actually coming out to vote for the Heisman Running Back that they view as a God down there. Edited October 20, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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