2024 Presidential Election thread

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, LaceyLou said:

Yes, I keep on seeing posts with differences in prices from Jan 2020 and today... shouldn't the comparison also include/take into consideration COVID? Asking for a friend. 

this is sort of the classic misunderstanding of inflation - which is not the price level, but the rate of change in the price level. There is a perception that when inflation stops, prices should go back down. No - they just stay where they are but stop increasing. For the government to try and force prices back down would, in the opinion of almost every sane economist in history, drive an economy into series recession. The issue is that when prices start to fall, people stop spending money completely waiting for prices to be better tomorrow, and that can drive the economy into a deflationary death spiral. No one wants to risk that, so there is never an effort to 'reverse' the effects of an inflationary period once it ends. Japan lost yrs of economic growth when it got stuck in deflation.

Edited May 23 by gehringer_2

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, LaceyLou said:

Yes, I keep on seeing posts with differences in prices from Jan 2020 and today... shouldn't the comparison also include/take into consideration COVID? Asking for a friend. 

Also wages. Just a reminder under Trump last time the rich got rich and the poor poorer. 

[RatkoVarda]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

One thing we will see from the Biden presidency is that accomplishments mean nothing. Biden is the most accomplished president since at least Johnson and people act like picking Biden is the lesser of two evils. 

good point. this is yet another reason we are probably doomed to a slow dismantling of a functioning USA. Social media memes are more important than actual legislating. People literally want a sick burn more than actaul public policy from their politicians.

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, Edman85 said:

How much of 2022 inflation was just pent up and delayed by COVID... 

100%

And not just the pent up demand.

The supply chains were not ready to go from 15% to 115% capacity when the pent up demand unleashed. That caused lots of logistical/ labor cost/  inflationary problems too. Not to mention, roughly 6 mill pre-Covid workers decided to retire post-Covid. Talk about putting pressure on labor costs. 

Good for workers' wages. 

Until the expected inflationary reaction to that, ate away at those wage gains...

The short answer is: 100%

[oblong]

4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

100%

And not just the pent up demand.

The supply chains were not ready to go from 15% to 115% capacity when the pent up demand unleashed. That caused lots of logistical/ labor cost/  inflationary problems too. Not to mention, roughly 6 mill pre-Covid workers decided to retire post-Covid. Talk about putting pressure on labor costs. 

Good for workers' wages. 

Until the expected inflationary reaction to that, ate away at those wage gains...

The short answer is: 100%

agree with that.  Plus you throw in cash stimulus payments for people who, frankly didn't need it.  I am not talking about those hurt by covid issues, but people like me.  Geez, I saved money during covid on gas, lunches, entertainment, etc.  But the government gave us thousands.   Suddenly I had a small nest egg so we splurged on some things we might not have otherwise. 

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

.... Just a reminder under Trump last time the rich got rich and the poor poorer. 

A-Hah!

Now we're talking about Trump's Tax Cuts.

Created annual $1 TRILLION deficits. Not billion. TRILLION.

Did nothing or close to nothing for the middle class.

The top 1% in this country? LINED their ****ing POCKETS with those tax cuts. Middle Class MAGA clamoring for more of the same? Too ****ing stupid to realize that REAL Republicans (those in the top 1% and trying to protect their top 1% from the proletariat rabble) are going to **** them in the ass again.

Republicans: Cancel Biden's Infrastructure = **** the middle class (construction jobs/ engineers/ etc..) in the ass.

Republicans: MESS with Social Security and Medicare = middle class gets ****ed in the ass again.

Republicans: Make permanent the "middle class" tax cuts that are due to expire = these don't do **** for the middle class but they sure do help the top 1% line their pockets = middle class gets ****ed in the ass again.

Republicans: The DEFICIT and the national debt is a PROBLEM so... They will find a way to TAX the MIDDLE CLASS. Middle class? ****ed again. Guaranteed.

 

I'm sorry... but to me... the abject STUPIDITY LEVEL of MAGA is so ****ing far off the charts I just cannot ****ing believe that this is where we are. 

[CMRivdogs]

This...

 

[Motown Bombers]

The media spent at least a year telling us a recession was coming. Who can forget that Bloomberg headline that the economy was supposed to be in shambles by October? 

[RatkoVarda]

"We spent a year incorrectly doom-casting a recession that never came; here's why that's bad news for Joe Biden."

[Motor City Sonics]

But people say  Look how much a burger meal costs at McDonald's.    That's the economy right there.  That's it.    It's stupid and simplistic, but we now live in a society where Scientists and people who read books are elitist snobs and Joe Bob from the internet knows more than your doctor.     Mike Judge is a modern-day Nostradamus.   He nailed it.  It's exactly where this is all going, only a lot faster than he thought.      

[CMRivdogs]

Somewhat related to the perceived economy thoughts about the election is this NYT story. It does seem to make sense about the "Peak Millennials" those born around 1990-91. 
 

That group reached college age 2008-09 just about the time of the Bush housing crash coupled with a major upswing in college enrollments (thanks to late blooming boomers) and rising student debt.

Many of them became eligible to purchase homes around 2020-21 as prices skyrocketed thanks to low interest and the pandemic.

From the story 

Quote

If demographics are destiny, the demographic born in 1990 and 1991 was destined to compete for housing, jobs and other resources. Those two birth years, the people set to turn 33 and 34 in 2024, make up the peak of America’s population.

As the biggest part of the biggest generation, this hyper-specific age group — call us what you will, but I like “peak millennials” — has moved through the economy like a person squeezing into a too-small sweater. At every life stage, it has stretched a system that was often too small to accommodate it, leaving it somewhat flabby and misshapen in its wake. My cohort has an outsized amount of economic power, but that has sometimes made life harder for us.

When millennials gripe that they get blamed for everything, in other words, the accusers might be onto something.

Quote

That economic influence extends well beyond day-to-day consumption. When peak millennials went to college in 2009, the enrollment spike was so significant that community colleges that had once prided themselves on welcoming all students started to turn away applicants.

When that group began to graduate and moved for jobs, the population of metro areas like New York City, San Antonio and San Francisco jumped to new highs, leading to a fierce contest for a limited supply of apartments in some places — the Bay Area in particular.

That re-urbanization boom came “when those millennials were coming of age, getting their first jobs, looking for housing, looking for roommates,” said Igor Popov, chief economist at Apartment List.

Quote

The group made up a huge entering class in its own right, but thanks to the Great Recession, older people with few job opportunities were also flooding into college classrooms to weather the downturn.

Enrollment rates spiked. The population of people in collegepeaked in 2010, the year after my class matriculated.

“The big strain that the students felt was to get classes and to get resources,” said Robert Kelchen, a professor who studies higher education at the University of Tennessee.

Tuition rates climbed sharply at public schools as state support waned during the downturn, though they also nudged steadily higher at private colleges. The ratio between student debt burdens and starting salaries got worse.

But demand for college seats has begun to reverse as demographic trends pair with a cultural shift away from higher education. Less selective colleges, which couldn’t add seats fast enough in the late 2000s, are now closing and merging.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/business/economy/33-year-olds-millennials.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uU0.oxHI.R6Fax_wnGfX6&smid=url-share
 

Basically, I'm wondering how many of that age bracket are the ones that feel whatever economic pinch there is perceived to be. How many have become agnostic to the campaigns believing that whomever gets elected is going to do a ****ty job. Or in other words "A pox on both houses"  
 

[oblong]

30 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Somewhat related to the perceived economy thoughts about the election is this NYT story. It does seem to make sense about the "Peak Millennials" those born around 1990-91. 
 

That group reached college age 2008-09 just about the time of the Bush housing crash coupled with a major upswing in college enrollments (thanks to late blooming boomers) and rising student debt.

Many of them became eligible to purchase homes around 2020-21 as prices skyrocketed thanks to low interest and the pandemic.

From the story 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/business/economy/33-year-olds-millennials.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uU0.oxHI.R6Fax_wnGfX6&smid=url-share
 

Basically, I'm wondering how many of that age bracket are the ones that feel whatever economic pinch there is perceived to be. How many have become agnostic to the campaigns believing that whomever gets elected is going to do a ****ty job. Or in other words "A pox on both houses"  
 

Interesting... and you couple that with what I observe on social media of older generations constantly talking down generations that came after them.  I hate that **** with a passion.  Even something as simple as "Kids today should be taught cursive!"  It's a constant drum beat to make them feel bad or not up to par.

I got snippy with someone who was a boomer complaining about how "kids today don't play outside like before".  I told him if that were true then blame the people who raised today's parents... meaning... you boomers.

But it's not true.  It's just different.  The kids in my neighborhood may not be outside in a free for all like we were "in my day" but they are always busy with activities.  The families are never home during the week.  They like to push this narrative that kids just sit around playing video games.

So given that.... I understand the jadedness of certain generations.

[CMRivdogs]

19 minutes ago, oblong said:

Interesting... and you couple that with what I observe on social media of older generations constantly talking down generations that came after them.  I hate that **** with a passion.  Even something as simple as "Kids today should be taught cursive!"  It's a constant drum beat to make them feel bad or not up to par.

I got snippy with someone who was a boomer complaining about how "kids today don't play outside like before".  I told him if that were true then blame the people who raised today's parents... meaning... you boomers.

But it's not true.  It's just different.  The kids in my neighborhood may not be outside in a free for all like we were "in my day" but they are always busy with activities.  The families are never home during the week.  They like to push this narrative that kids just sit around playing video games.

So given that.... I understand the jadedness of certain generations.

It's a bit like the college loan argument. As a boomer I could pay off that loan in a couple of years on a job making about $3,000 a year (early to mid 70's). I could also find a decent apartment for under $200 a month, my car cost me around $2000 new. If I took a part time job, my second employer would try to accommodate my schedule, and I knew in advance if there needed to be any changes.  I'm not sure that happens for kids or older adults anymore 

 

[oblong]

14 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

It's a bit like the college loan argument. As a boomer I could pay off that loan in a couple of years on a job making about $3,000 a year (early to mid 70's). I could also find a decent apartment for under $200 a month, my car cost me around $2000 new. If I took a part time job, my second employer would try to accommodate my schedule, and I knew in advance if there needed to be any changes.  I'm not sure that happens for kids or older adults anymore 

 

as someone with a kid in college... it doesn't.  I went to college in the early and mid 90's. I could pay my way just working odd jobs part time.  Granted I commuted, but so does my son.   It's about 5 times what I was paying back and he goes to the same school. 

[LaceyLou]

The state school I went to in the late 80s/early 90s was about 2K per year... many of us were able to earn most, if not all it with a summer job. Then we could pay rent by working 10-15 hours a week during the school year. We didn't live in luxury, by any means, but still.... 

[romad1]

Strong language warning 

 

[romad1]

 

[pfife]

WTF I LIKE LOLATARIANS RIGHT NOW

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, LaceyLou said:

The state school I went to in the late 80s/early 90s was about 2K per year... many of us were able to earn most, if not all it with a summer job. Then we could pay rent by working 10-15 hours a week during the school year. We didn't live in luxury, by any means, but still.... 

yeah, I'm older than that and  was able to pretty much pay my own way through at UM from my second year on and graduated with zero debt. Kid's not being able to support themselves at upper level schools like UM is a terrible indictment of US social policy over the last 40 yrs. It's become one big profit center for the loan industry instead. 

Pretty much the same for the SO. She finished owing a total of $3K, and we though that was pretty bad.

Edited May 25 by gehringer_2

[Mr.TaterSalad]

My mom went to Eastern Michigan in the early 1970s and paid for her college, books, and gas by working a part time retail job throughout the year. She took out a small loan and when she finished college (didn't officially graduate) had no student loan debt. After she graduated she bought her first house at the age of 22 and went to work for Michigan Bell and had a near 30 year career with MI Bell/AT&T. She was forced into retirement around the age of 60 when she was laid off during the recession. She went back to work for another 6 years or so after being laid off and then officially retired around age 66.

I went to Wayne State in the late 2000s and worked a part time retail job during the school year and full time during the spring and summer months. I even got promoted to a Shift Supervisor position and went up to $9.25/hr. as a Supervisor. I graduated with $40,000 in debt from Wayne State and no prospects for a job better than what I had due to the economic being in the midst of the Great Recession. So then I went back to school and got a Masters Degree while I road out the recession. I added another $15,000 or so in debt load from going for my Masters. I bought my first house at 28. I only was able to do so because housing prices were still deflated and I had a friend of mine move in with me and help out with the bills. I have a decent job right now and can say I am comfortable month to month, and even have a little savings. But I am by no means doing great. I'll never retire. I simply won't have enough in my 401k (which I contribute to monthly) and Social Security to retire. MAGA is going to gut Social Security anyways if and when they take back power in November.

Edited May 25 by Mr.TaterSalad

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, romad1 said:

Strong language warning 

 

Jesus, what are these people, fifteen? What a clown show.

[romad1]

30 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Jesus, what are these people, fifteen? What a clown show.

Have you met libertarians?

[romad1]

Former Trump advisor, Stephanie Grisham apparently is spilling tea on Trump's behavior with young female intern.  Doesn't sound like he Lewinskied her but he probably can't at his advanced age.  

[oblong]

Eeewwwww.  
 

[Tigeraholic1]

College is such a scam these days. Society says you will be a failure unless you attened a four year school. Not only do you walk away with huge student loan  chances are you will not use your degree for your career. How many classes are you forced to take that have zero impact on your degree of study?

Trade schools have a much lower cost. My kids HS offers an apprenticeship that you start as a Jr. and graduate with a Ass. degree with ZERO debt. His buddy who he plays baseball with is a senior and already has a job lined up in June working with Plumbers Steam Fitters Union starting pay? 27.50 an hour day 1 out of HS. We met with the director of this program and they said there are over 100 open positions just in this area for that exact job.

My wife, a nurse got her bachelor's degree and her hospital reimbursed schooling costs, she had to stay there for three years to qualify after graduating but paid in full. She is now licensed to work in any ICU in the world. Go to college get a degree but make sure there is a market for your talents. 

Edited May 25 by Tigeraholic1