The 2021 Report Card

[gehringer_2]

33 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

Thank you,  I really failed to appreciate (or care, for that matter) of a possible distinction. But now that you have primed the pump...in the baseball arbitration process, the arbitrator is not free to devise his own  compromise solution, he can side with either the organization, or with the player...he must pick from the best and final offers placed on the table....so...doesn't that clear the hurdles of what you describe as an arbiter?

true, his choice is constrained in that sense, but it's still his free choice to make. Maybe a counter example would be the Senate Parliamentarian. He/she is the arbiter of a set of rules. They make rulings but only to apply that set of rules, it's not (supposed to be!) his/her political preference that says whether something can be included in a reconciliation bill, they're there to apply a rule without regard to which they think is the better outcome. There is no rule determining which offer the baseball arbitrator chooses. He can pick either precisely because he thinks it is the fairer outcome. He is supposed to apply his own judgment. Anyway - that is how I now understand it.

Edited October 5, 2021 by gehringer_2

[Useful Idiot]

18 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Wrong answer.

Try again.

Well, I think that the concept you prefer personally would be if they "non-tendered" Boyd, but in the context of the arbitration process, (which is what we we discussing) the CORRECT terminology would be final offer, and not as you  stated "qualifying" offer.

They may choose to nontender him as a means of avoiding arbitration....but that is a separate matter.

[Useful Idiot]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

Anyway - that is how I now understand it.

Perhaps you could share a little understanding on the following:  Who is going to be paying for Boyd's surgery?  O always had the uninformed opinion that the ball clubs pay for this sort of thing. If they intend to non-tender him, then they can't be too wild about paying for a surgery that does not present a tangible benefit to them?

I'm sure that Boyd could easily afford it out of his own pocket, but that's not the way I've always thought it worked.

Perhaps there is some "double platinum" version of workman's comp that also includes elective surgeries? 

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

Perhaps you could share a little understanding on the following:  Who is going to be paying for Boyd's surgery?  O always had the uninformed opinion that the ball clubs pay for this sort of thing. If they intend to non-tender him, then they can't be too wild about paying for a surgery that does not present a tangible benefit to them?

I'm sure that Boyd could easily afford it out of his own pocket, but that's not the way I've always thought it worked.

Perhaps there is some "double platinum" version of workman's comp that also includes elective surgeries? 

Good question, I've wondered about that one too. That's the kind of question that Shelton used to know the answer to.

Edited October 5, 2021 by gehringer_2

[Sports_Freak]

4 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I have no interest in Boyd in 2023.

Don't you have to extend a QO? To get arbitration?

Don't extend a QO. He's not going to sign anywhere else anyways. Sign him to a minor league contract so he can rehab in our system, which is me being nice here, and see if he's able to pitch in July/ August with the Tigers. He can also have a stipulation in the contract that he's in MLB with the Tigers by mid-July, or he gets released and is a FA. If he's not ready for MLB, he's a FA at the end of 2022 one way or another, so let him go.

I'm not interested in offering him any more than that.

Yeah, he's a great dude, he really is. But there has to be a business decision made. For about the same price he may want, we can actually get a #5 pitcher. Don't forget, we have some more SP coming up soon and Turnbull coming back, maybe June or July. Sign Petalta? He was better than I thought.

[Sports_Freak]

3 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

    I don't think this lineup is going to undergo a whole lot of change this coming offseason.  They might add another catcher for a year and they could add a SS, but I expect most of those guys to be back.  I don't expect them to make those moves because they've got Tork, Greene and Kreidler in their back pocket, so that might prevent them from throwing a lot of money at the lineup.    I do think we'll see some significant changes with the pitching staff.  

I don't agree. Mize, Manning, Alexander and Skubal will be 4 of our SP, if healthy. Sign Verlander for a project and Peralta to be our #5 SP? Our biggest need is a quality SS and maybe another BP arm. Maybe a catcher on a one year contract?

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, Useful Idiot said:

Thank you,  I really failed to appreciate (or care, for that matter) of a possible distinction. But now that you have primed the pump...in the baseball arbitration process, the arbitrator is not free to devise his own  compromise solution, he can side with either the organization, or with the player...he must pick from the best and final offers placed on the table....so...doesn't that clear the hurdles of what you describe as an arbiter?

But if a team and player go to arbitration and the player wins, does that mean the team has to pay him what the arbitrator decides? I mean, can a team just refuse and release the player?

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, Useful Idiot said:

Well, I think that the concept you prefer personally would be if they "non-tendered" Boyd, but in the context of the arbitration process, (which is what we we discussing) the CORRECT terminology would be final offer, and not as you  stated "qualifying" offer.

They may choose to nontender him as a means of avoiding arbitration....but that is a separate matter.

If they nontender him, he's a free agent immediately. And then free to sign with anyone. Some team may come sweeping in.

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

But if a team and player go to arbitration and the player wins, does that mean the team has to pay him what the arbitrator decides? I mean, can a team just refuse and release the player?

I don't think you can do that. If the team goes to arbitration they are obligated to pay whichever award is made - in effect it would become like any other MLB contract - guaranteed. If you don't want to risk paying the award you have to give the player his release before arbitration - he's then a free agent.

Edited October 5, 2021 by gehringer_2

[Jim Cowan]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't think you can do that. If the team goes to arbitration they are obligated to pay whichever award is made - in effect it would become like any other MLB contract - guaranteed. If you don't want to risk paying the award you have to give the player his release before arbitration - he's then a free agent.

Yes I think that that is exactly right.  When you walk into the room to meet the arbitrator, you are stuck with the outcome.

[SoCalTiger]

I don't think you can plan on Boyd to pitch in 2022 so based on that you non tender him and then negotiate an incentive laden deal with a very low base allowing Boyd to rehab with the team. pay for play with the ream showing goodwill for the surgery and rehab. Or offer a two year with the assumption your getting one year of pitching. 

[gehringer_2]

19 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

I don't think you can plan on Boyd to pitch in 2022

IDK - this procedure is supposed to have a significantly shorter rehab than TJ.  But sure that is the obvious question. Whether or not they might have some clarity around his return schedule before arbitration decisions have to be made will obviously play into the decision in a big way.

[casimir]

8 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Yeah, he's a great dude, he really is. But there has to be a business decision made. For about the same price he may want, we can actually get a #5 pitcher. Don't forget, we have some more SP coming up soon and Turnbull coming back, maybe June or July. Sign Petalta? He was better than I thought.

Even if Turnbull is ready to resume baseball activities, is he going to be ready to be depended upon for much in 2022?

8 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

I don't agree. Mize, Manning, Alexander and Skubal will be 4 of our SP, if healthy. Sign Verlander for a project and Peralta to be our #5 SP? Our biggest need is a quality SS and maybe another BP arm. Maybe a catcher on a one year contract?

I would expect Peralta to look for more than the Tigers should offer.  He filled in admirably for the Tigers and it turned out to be a very good signing.  But underneath the shiny 3.07 ERA is a lot of luck that the peripherals wouldn't project.  I don't mind resigning him for the bullpen as a mop up kind of arm, but he's had a choppy career and he doesn't strike guys out.  It's difficult to believe that he figured something out at 32 years old.  It'd be interesting to know what Fetter's input would be.

We don't really know what to expect out of Verlander, for that matter.  It'd be fun to see him in a Tiger jersey again leading the next charge to the playoffs, but he'll be 39 years old when camp opens, coming off of Tommy John.  I understand TJ isn't as nefarious as it used to be, but it letting ain't a blister heal over either.

[RatkoVarda]

8 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't think you can do that. If the team goes to arbitration they are obligated to pay whichever award is made - in effect it would become like any other MLB contract - guaranteed. If you don't want to risk paying the award you have to give the player his release before arbitration - he's then a free agent.

if I remember this correctly, a decade ago the union flipped out because some team cut a guy late in spring training who won his arbitration case. union claimed that is why he was cut and team screwed him by cutting him after other opportunities filled. team just had to pay him a portion of his salary. totally within rules

Players on arbitration contracts who are cut on or before the 16th day of Spring Training are owed 30 days' termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). A player cut between the 16th day and the end of Spring Training is owed 45 days' termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). The arbitration salary becomes guaranteed if the player is on the 25-man roster when the season begins.

[Archie]

10 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

I don't agree. Mize, Manning, Alexander and Skubal will be 4 of our SP, if healthy. Sign Verlander for a project and Peralta to be our #5 SP? Our biggest need is a quality SS and maybe another BP arm. Maybe a catcher on a one year contract?

I think JV is too much of a gamble for the tigers to sign unless they get him very cheap. He's not a young guy anymore but mainly he's coming off a major surgery.  Tigers need to be smart with their spending and dumping a bundle on JV doesn't seem like a smart move for them at this time.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

The arbitration salary becomes guaranteed if the player is on the 25-man roster when the season begins.

good stuff. I did not know the guarantee didn't kick in until the 1st day of season.  Is the prorating is based on 187 days? If so then 45 days would be about 1/4 of the contract? I imagine most teams don't even want to go there for a player they get nothing back from.

[sabretooth]

On 10/4/2021 at 8:38 AM, Motor City Sonics said:

Yeah, that really fell apart.  Then the tragedy with the lady and her baby.     Manager fired today (George Lombard will likely be interviewed for this)   I am sure they'll give Bruce Bochy a call to see if he misses the game.  He lives in Poway anyway, so he's already there.   

The Angels finish with the same record as the Tigers with some big money stars.  

Goes to my argument that maybe throwing a very large amount of money on one guy is not the way.   I think Correa is going to be way too expensive.   I want no part of Trevor Story (check his career splits home vs. away, he's a Coors Field hitter).  Marcus Semien might be possible but now he's a big home run guy which means a big salary guy.   I am interested to see what the Dodgers are going to do with Corey Seager and Trea Turner.   Turner is the guy I'd want, but they may never get the shot at him.   If we want Corey Seagar, we're going to have to overpay like with Ivan Rodriguez.  He'd want more to play here.    He also may want to play with his brother, the two of them may sign with the same team.   Plus the Mariners are so very close.   Both are Free Agents now, this could be interesting.   

Back to the Padres.  Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. hate each other,  the dugout thing was not the only incident, from what I've read and it might be a big part of the Padres problems.   I don't think the Tigers could get Machado without trading Mize or Skubal and Green or Tork as part of the deal, but it seems like Manny might have to go, because it's not going to be Tatis.     Bruce Bochy has the respect to solve that.  

Spend on 3 or 4 good players instead of 1 great one who could get hurt or go flaky.  

The Home/Road splits for Rockies players are misleading....players adapt to the flatter pitches in Coors from visiting pitchers, and the home adjustment hurts the Rockies hitters' road hitting.

Storys Road numbers will improve, and of course his Home numbers will drop, after he leaves Coors....the result will be similar, but with fewer Hrs on flyballs at his new home.

[sabretooth]

11 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

I don't agree. Mize, Manning, Alexander and Skubal will be 4 of our SP, if healthy. Sign Verlander for a project and Peralta to be our #5 SP? Our biggest need is a quality SS and maybe another BP arm. Maybe a catcher on a one year contract?

They handed the ball over 65 times in 2021 to guys who either wont be in rotation in 2022 (Boyd, Turnbull, Fulmer) or who shouldnt be relied on for quality pitching in 2022 (Peralta, Urena, and several others).

They also will likely hand the ball to Manning 25+ times in 2022 with the hope that he can get his R/9 under 5, and to Alexander 20-25 times with the hope that he can repeat his decent 10 last starts.

To think that we can add JV and rely on him to fill half of the 65 vacant starts at a quality level, and bring back Peralta for the same purpose, seems very unrealistic.

[1776]

1 hour ago, Archie said:

I think JV is too much of a gamble for the tigers to sign unless they get him very cheap. He's not a young guy anymore but mainly he's coming off a major surgery.  Tigers need to be smart with their spending and dumping a bundle on JV doesn't seem like a smart move for them at this time.

Al Avila isn’t going to dump a bundle on anyone. This off-season is going to be very interesting. 

[casimir]

49 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

The Home/Road splits for Rockies players are misleading....players adapt to the flatter pitches in Coors from visiting pitchers, and the home adjustment hurts the Rockies hitters' road hitting.

Storys Road numbers will improve, and of course his Home numbers will drop, after he leaves Coors....the result will be similar, but with fewer Hrs on flyballs at his new home.

Trying to think of Rockie hitters leaving in the early to middle primes of their careers with some history after leaving.  So, not Nolan Arrenado (only one season out of Denver).  Is Matt Holliday a reasonable comparison as to what could be expected of Story?

[Stanley70]

I feel confident they will spend big on a position player, most likely a SS. I am less confident on what quality of SP they will bring in. My guess is it will be more of the mid tier SP, like a Jake Odorizzi. I don't think they will be dumpster diving like they have the last couple of years; Matt Moore, Urena, Teheran, etc.

[Motor City Sonics]

If you think that Mize, Manning or Skubal aren't going to miss starts next year, you are very optimistic.  I hope it doesn't happen, but if I am the Tigers I plan for it to happen.     With Alexander, I like the role of being a reliable arm in the pen that can start when he's needed to start, I don't see him as being a starter from the beginning of the seasons unless you have some injuries.   I hope they can re-sign Peralta and he's got a reasonable asking price.   But honestly, you should really go into the season with 7 viable starters available.  Some will start the season in the rotation, the others will be in the pen or at Toledo.   In my opinion they need to sign a couple more starters and if they have too many, maybe consider a 6-man rotation, as I am sure they will continue to limit the young guys innings.   Good starters, not journeymen.   They don't have to be top of the rotation guys. 

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Stanley70 said:

I feel confident they will spend big on a position player, most likely a SS. I am less confident on what quality of SP they will bring in. My guess is it will be more of the mid tier SP, like a Jake Odorizzi. I don't think they will be dumpster diving like they have the last couple of years; Matt Moore, Urena, Teheran, etc.

Yeah - I think they are comfortable with the kids at the top of the order. On the pitching side I think they will be looking for innings eaters, not Cy Young candidates.  I'd spend my money at catcher, but I don't think there is even going to be much out there to at C to spend it on, so that brings us back to SS as the likeliest big ticket acquisition.

Giants could refuse their '22 option on Posey. I wouldn't!

Yan Gomes and Maldonado are pretty much over the hill. Just not much out there at C. Every is either old or worse than Haase.

[KL2]

50 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Al Avila isn’t going to dump a bundle on anyone. 

except they prtty much said they will....

[1776]

2 minutes ago, KL2 said:

except they prtty much said they will....

My impression from his comments is that he is going to spend judiciously. This may, and could, result in a big contract for a player. But there isn’t a promise out there that there is going to be a headliner signing.