Detroit Lions Offseason Thread 2023

[Mr.TaterSalad]

37 minutes ago, buddha said:

why re-sign all those running backa and then draft one?

Reynolds or Jackson will be bumped to being the practice squad back.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I would do a few things differently but...

No bad.

Where do you see asking prices for FA's? (Or is that PFF subscription...?)

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

PFF has contract projections for their top 100 free agents. All of my other numbers were based off of prior contracts and the contractual value of players in that same range.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Walking away with Carter and Porter along with Bradberry in FA would be the dream scenario for me. 

Same for me and probably a lot of Lions fans. We'd be poking a lot of eyes out from the excitement if that was our offseason haul.

Again, I would prefer Jamel Dean over Bradberry because he is younger and more productive. But we're going to have to break the bank I feel to either get Dean away from Tampa Bay or outbid another team.

[NYLion]

5 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

So I ran a mock off-season of sorts using this cap simulator from Over the Cap and the PFF Mock Draft Simulator. My numbers are probably nowhere close to accurate and I have zero idea who we are and aren't resigning. So this is a shot in the dark. After resigning all of our own guys we have $22,027,438 in cap space or free agents and draft picks. That number went down by $12 million after making a big splash signing of James Bradberry at Corner. In the mock draft, Jalen Carter fell to me and so there was no way I wasn't drafting him.

Cut Pre 6/1:

Romeo Okawara - Saves $7.5 approx. million in cap space

Michael Brockers - Saves approx. $10 million in cap space

Charles Harris - Saves approx. $4 million in cap space

Cut Post 6/1:

Halapoulivaati Vaitai - $9.5 million in cap space

*I thought about trying to restructure Vaitai's deal to so we could extend out the cap hit for this season. I wouldn't be opposed to him returning at all given the right cap number.

Resigned:

Nate Sudfeld (QB) - 1 year, $1.08 million with $1.08 million guaranteed

Jamal Williams (RB) - 3 Years, $12.5 million with $8.25 million guaranteed

Justin Jackson (RB) - 1 year, $1.25 million with $1.25 million guaranteed

Craig Reynolds (RB) - 1 year, $980,000 with $980,000 guaranteed

DJ Chark (WR) - 3 years, $35 million with $24 million guaranteed

Brock Wright (TE) - 3 years, $7.5 million with $4 million guaranteed

Shane Zylsta (TE) - 2 years, $1.25 million with $600,000 guaranteed

Matt Nelson (LT) - 1 year, $1 million with $1 million guaranteed

Dan Skipper (C/G) - 1 year, $900,000 with $900,000 guaranteed

Evan Brown (C/G) - 3 years, $7.5 million with $4 million guaranteed

Tommy Kraemer (G) - 1 year, $850,000 with $850, guaranteed

Isiah Buggs (DE) - 2 years, $3 million, with $600,000 guaranteed

John Cominsky (DT) - 2 years, $4 million with $2 million guaranteed

Josh Woods (LB) - 1 year, $1.25 million with $1.25 million guaranteed

Mike Hughes (CB) - 2 years, $1.625 million with $425,000 guaranteed

DeShaun Elliot (S) - 2 Years, $3 million with $1 million guaranteed

CJ Moore (S) - 1 year, $825,000 with $825,000 guaranteed

Bobby Price (S) - 1 year, $925,000 with $925,000 guaranteed

Not re-signed:

Alex Anzalone, Amani Oruwariye, Anthony Pittman, Austin Bryant, Benito Jones, Chris Board, Michael Badgley, Scott Daly, Ross Pierschbacher, Will Harris

Big Splash Free Agent:

James Bradberry (CB) - 2 years, $24 million with $16.5 million guaranteed

*I wanted Jamel Dean here but the asking price, per PFF, looks to be around $17 million/per year with a $47.5 million guaranteed price tag. I didn't have the cap space to offer Dean that type of deal and so I opted for the cheaper, older, less talented but still very good James Bradberry instead.

Draft:

The numbers on Cominsky are WAY low. I think he'll be in the ballpark of 2 years $8-10m. Eliott will probably get offers of 3m per year on the open market, no way he gets 3m total over 2 years IMO unless he takes a team friendly discount. Chark and Williams seem about right although I think Williams might take a little less.

Either way, I don't see Holmes splurging in free agency. I think it'll more "prove it" contracts like the Chark one last offseason and finding diamonds in the rough like Cominsky, Buggs and Eliott. Don't really see him being in on the big names.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Reynolds or Jackson will be bumped to being the practice squad back.

there's no real need to re-sign either of them.  they are a dime a dozen.

just to nitpick you even more, lol.  🙂

[Mr.TaterSalad]

4 minutes ago, NYLion said:

The numbers on Cominsky are WAY low. I think he'll be in the ballpark of 2 years $8-10m. Eliott will probably get offers of 3m per year on the open market, no way he gets 3m total over 2 years IMO unless he takes a team friendly discount. Chark and Williams seem about right although I think Williams might take a little less.

Either way, I don't see Holmes splurging in free agency. I think it'll more "prove it" contracts like the Chark one last offseason and finding diamonds in the rough like Cominsky, Buggs and Eliott. Don't really see him being in on the big names.

Do you consider an older, James Bradberry-type player getting 2 @ $24mil total a splurge then that Holmes is going to avoid? I think we have the chance to go all in next year and be a top-tier team in the NFC. No reason to be conservative and play it safe this offseason IMO.

As far as the Cominsky contract, it was just a shot in the dark. If the number is closer to your projection I think I'd still be willing to pay that given his value to the team this past season.

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Same for me and probably a lot of Lions fans. We'd be poking a lot of eyes out from the excitement if that was our offseason haul.

Again, I would prefer Jamel Dean over Bradberry because he is younger and more productive. But we're going to have to break the bank I feel to either get Dean away from Tampa Bay or outbid another team.

I would rather get Dean (and I think he is more gettable as I think Tampa is teetering on a rebuild so... makes him more available to signing with another team.. and... Detroit is up-and-coming); and make the necessary cap moves to get him.

I don't think Chark + Bradberry is more valuable than Dean and any other WR replacement, including a late draft pick. So if we have to lose Chark to gain Dean, I say yes. Or... Chark has to come cheaper than your contract...

[NYLion]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Do you consider an older, James Bradberry-type player getting 2 @ $24mil total a splurge then that Holmes is going to avoid? I think we have the chance to go all in next year and be a top-tier team in the NFC. No reason to be conservative and play it safe this offseason IMO.

As far as the Cominsky contract, it was just a shot in the dark. If the number is closer to your projection I think I'd still be willing to pay that given his value to the team this past season.

I think it'll depend on who they cut, how many of their guys that they re-sign but I could see a guy like Bradberry being in the very high end of the splurge scale for Holmes. 

Cominsky had huge importance for this defense, the numbers with and without him were eye opening, and he's only 27 so I'd go up to 3 years $15-18m for him. He, like Williams might take a bit of a discount to stay here. They're the two that are a big part of the culture and have spoke the loudest about their desire to stay.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

4 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I would rather get Dean (and I think he is more gettable as I think Tampa is teetering on a rebuild so... makes him more available to signing with another team.. and... Detroit is up-and-coming); and make the necessary cap moves to get him.

I don't think Chark + Bradberry is more valuable than Dean and any other WR replacement, including a late draft pick. So if we have to lose Chark to gain Dean, I say yes. Or... Chark has to come cheaper than your contract...

I like what they have going on offense and how Chark and Goff connected towards the latter half of the season. I'd like to keep the cohesion going on offense.

That said, if we could get Dean by sacrificing Chark to do it, I'd probably be ok with that. Getting an arguably top 10 Corner in Dean probably would have a bigger impact than what Chark gives us on offense. Dean probably locks died the CB1 spot for the next 4-5 years.

[1984Echoes]

Plus Jameson Williams should largely take over Chark's effective usage... or at least we hope so.

I think we can expand J-Will's touches, keep a heavy dose of ARSB, and find another cheaper version of Chark, even if his replacement has less usage/ experience/ etc... and fill-in around the edges with Reynolds, Kalif, etc... to keep Goff and this offense happy.

There's just so many college WR's coming out... You can draft a guy like Mingo or Cedric Tillman or Trey Palmer or Andrei Iosavis in the 3rd?/ 5th round? ... depending on which prospect and who falls and... a Chark-lite-rookie-season is still enough to keep that dimension on offense for Goff. 

And free up money to get the most impactful CB on the market. Dean would definitely be a much higher impact on the D than Bradberry on D/ and Chark's impact on O - combined. IMO.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I do look at what Cincinnati has with their three headed monster at WR with Chase, Higgins, and Boyd and think we could have a version of what with Williams, St.Brown, and Chark. That is really appealing to have on the field because it really could put an opposing secondary on their toes about how they're able to cover us.

That said, I really feel torn on this one because I do think Dean would come in here an instantly elevate the play of this defense and turn our secondary around, give us stability at the corner position for the foreseeable future, and free up what we can do draft wise.

[Motown Bombers]

I would go with Chark or another receiver. They need more of that big physical receiver on the outside who can win those 50/50 balls. That would complement what they have already in St Brown and Williams. 

[buddha]

if chark wants to come back on a cheap "prove it" deal, then ok.  he came here last year to rebuild his value and show everyone he could be productive and healthy.  he didnt do either.

 

[1984Echoes]

Out with Chark.

And in with Dean.

Unless, as buddha said, the contract is cheap enough if it's another prove-it deal.

Otherwise, I agree Tater, I like the big physical component but... I believe there are other avenues that can get us that, it's not Chark-only-or-bust. I don't know what other FA options there are... but the draft this year looks loaded with big, fast receivers. I'd let Holmes pick the one he wants, in the draft round that he wants...

[RandyMarsh]

If we were to sign a Dean and let Chark go that could open up the possibility of Quintin Johnson at 18.(or maybe a little trade up if need be)

I brought him up a few times and I know we have more pressing needs but I just think he would be the perfect receiver to compliment Jamo and ARSB. 

[1984Echoes]

I don't think a Quintin Johnson at 18 is required to replace Chark. I'm looking more at a Jonathon Mingo at #81 or a Trey Palmer at #169.

[RandyMarsh]

8 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't think a Quintin Johnson at 18 is required to replace Chark. I'm looking more at a Jonathon Mingo at #81 or a Trey Palmer at #169.

Definetly not required but I think Johnson is a tier or two above everybody else for his class of receivers. Kinda like how we could've waited and got a guy like Sky Moore last year but instead went out and got the guy in his own tier in Jamo. Could see something similar with Johnson if Holmes wants to go that route. 

[KL2]

9 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Definetly not required but I think Johnson is a tier or two above everybody else for his class of receivers. Kinda like how we could've waited and got a guy like Sky Moore last year but instead went out and got the guy in his own tier in Jamo. Could see something similar with Johnson if Holmes wants to go that route. 

First round relievers in back to back years 

 

I feel I've heard this story before

[Jason_R]

On 2/1/2023 at 3:27 PM, Cruzer1 said:

What would scare me, and @buddha let me know your thoughts; is if the Bears realized that Fields would be a bigger weapon as a slash player, and they drafted Bryce Young to be their QB.

Fields on Chicago drafting another QB: "Who am I playing for next?" https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/02/10/chicago-bears-justin-fields-who-am-i-playing-for-next 

[Cruzer1]

On 2/9/2023 at 8:47 AM, buddha said:

if chark wants to come back on a cheap "prove it" deal, then ok.  he came here last year to rebuild his value and show everyone he could be productive and healthy.  he didnt do either.

 

I disagree. I think he's going to get franchised.

[Hongbit]

11 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said:

I disagree. I think he's going to get franchised.

The tag for WR is $19.7m.   There’s no way the Lions do that.  

[Cruzer1]

Just now, Hongbit said:

The tag for WR is $19.7m.   There’s no way the Lions do that.  

Holmes brought that up last year when he signed him for one year.

[MichiganCardinal]

I think it’s more like that the Lions take a WR at 6 or 18 than it is that they franchise their injury prone WR3.

[buddha]

35 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said:

I disagree. I think he's going to get franchised.

absolutely not.  no way.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Cruzer1 said:

I disagree. I think he's going to get franchised.

Nope.

Overruled.

 

 

Edited February 12, 2023 by 1984Echoes