2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[RatkoVarda]

Phillies will sign Correa.

[buddha]

12 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I think the Seager 10/325 contract is probably the gold standard for this winter.  Correa will probably get at least that.  Most of the big money teams didn't do much before the lock out.  

this is the correct answer.

i assume he will get at least what lindor received.

[buddha]

22 hours ago, 1776 said:

The Tigers put Correa on record as turning down a 10/275 offering. On this board and elsewhere, this isn’t really a good look for Correa. A lot of baseball fans are more likely to agree with the Tigers numbers as opposed to Correa’s expectations. It’s about perception. The Tigers may not have even intended to sign him to begin with, who knows. For that matter, he may not even want to be in Detroit. 

correa turning down less than market value IN DECEMBER - very early in the signing process - is not a "bad look" for him at all.  he's testing the market.  his agent likely knows what he'll get offered.

correa is the best talent on the market, why is it a bad look for him to turn down less than what seager took?

[HeyAbbott]

23 minutes ago, buddha said:

correa turning down less than market value IN DECEMBER - very early in the signing process - is not a "bad look" for him at all.  he's testing the market.  his agent likely knows what he'll get offered.

correa is the best talent on the market, why is it a bad look for him to turn down less than what seager took?

Solid observations in the above quote. In a negotiation, any bid is fair. If your trying to sell a VerMeer painting, and the seller states he wants 12 million, and you offer 50,000, you simply have a starting point for negotiations. BTW, a authenticated Ver Meer sold about a dozen years ago for 3.5 million, if I recall correctly. What does to seem to be odd though is that there seem to be only a few people serious about Correa, as if there was some collusion in the background somewhere...

[HeyAbbott]

BTW, I need to correct myself on the value of a Vermeer painting. Here is information on the last known sale taken from the website " Art News"

"After nearly 10 years of research, Sotheby’s announced the sale of the newly attributed painting by Johannes Vermeer, A Young Woman Seated at the Virginal.

On July 7, 2004, the painting sold for GBP£16,245,600, which amounts to approximately US$30,140,259. The painting is still in the possession of a private collector, but has been loaned to institutions for public viewing. Its most recent appearance was at the Scuderie del Quirinale in Rome in early 2013"

 

[buddha]

17 minutes ago, HeyAbbott said:

BTW, I need to correct myself on the value of a Vermeer painting. Here is information on the last known sale taken from the website " Art News"

"After nearly 10 years of research, Sotheby’s announced the sale of the newly attributed painting by Johannes Vermeer, A Young Woman Seated at the Virginal.

On July 7, 2004, the painting sold for GBP£16,245,600, which amounts to approximately US$30,140,259. The painting is still in the possession of a private collector, but has been loaned to institutions for public viewing. Its most recent appearance was at the Scuderie del Quirinale in Rome in early 2013"

 

does that make javy baez the shortstop with the pearl earring?

[Fox Wismic]

Just compare the statistics between Javy and Carlos over the last 3 full seasons.

 

Javy beat him in every offensive category. Batting average, home runs, run scored, runs batted in, stolen bases, on base, OPS, and anything else you can think of. And he's also a gold glove shortstop.

 

If that's declining, I hope every player on our team is declining. We'll win the World Series handily.

 

We just took our biggest weakness and made it our biggest strength. And people are whining because Ilitch didn't spend $300 million?

[Tiger337]

Correa is way ahead of Baez in OBP.  Baez has hit for a little more power and has stayed healthy.  I'd rather have Correa for the next few years, but maybe not ten years.  I am happy with Baez.  

Edited December 28, 2021 by Tiger337

[RandyMarsh]

ESPN put out the best fits and possible destinations for Correa and despite the Baez signing they still have the Tigers at 3rd behind the Phillies and Yankees.

 

[chasfh]

On 12/26/2021 at 8:24 PM, Tiger337 said:

I think the Seager 10/325 contract is probably the gold standard for this winter.  Correa will probably get at least that.  Most of the big money teams didn't do much before the lock out.  

 

22 hours ago, buddha said:

this is the correct answer.

i assume he will get at least what lindor received.

I also agree, which is why I was asking what the Tigers thought they were accomplishing with their 10/275.

Maybe they’re thinking they can catch him when he falls, although if it’s the case that the prevailing opinion going into the offseason is that Correa can achieve 10/320, and suddenly everyone else pulls back and says here you go, Tigers, you can have him at 10/275 … do we still want him at that point?

[chasfh]

22 hours ago, HeyAbbott said:

Solid observations in the above quote. In a negotiation, any bid is fair. If your trying to sell a VerMeer painting, and the seller states he wants 12 million, and you offer 50,000, you simply have a starting point for negotiations. BTW, a authenticated Ver Meer sold about a dozen years ago for 3.5 million, if I recall correctly. What does to seem to be odd though is that there seem to be only a few people serious about Correa, as if there was some collusion in the background somewhere...

If the established prevailing value estimate of an asset is 12 million, and your opening bid is 50,000, you’ll be summarily dismissed as an unserious bidder and you will probably never get the ear of the seller again. Only in extreme distressed situations could you hope to purchase such a valuable asset for pennies on the dollar.

[Tigeraholic1]

I really wish the league would keep the fanbase informed on where things stand. Like a daily briefing.

[Jim Cowan]

I don't think he is going to match Lindor or even Seager.  The stupid money is already gone.  If he wants $35 million it is going to have to be 2/70.

[HeyAbbott]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

If the established prevailing value estimate of an asset is 12 million, and your opening bid is 50,000, you’ll be summarily dismissed as an unserious bidder and you will probably never get the ear of the seller again. Only in extreme distressed situations could you hope to purchase such a valuable asset for pennies on the dollar.

Sometimes there is an unserious seller.

 

Edited December 28, 2021 by HeyAbbott

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

ESPN put out the best fits and possible destinations for Correa and despite the Baez signing they still have the Tigers at 3rd behind the Phillies and Yankees.

 

we know how closely ESPN follows the Detroit sports scene.....

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

 

I also agree, which is why I was asking what the Tigers thought they were accomplishing with their 10/275.

Maybe they’re thinking they can catch him when he falls, although if it’s the case that the prevailing opinion going into the offseason is that Correa can achieve 10/320, and suddenly everyone else pulls back and says here you go, Tigers, you can have him at 10/275 … do we still want him at that point?

I can't imagine the Tiger offer is still on the table.

[chasfh]

59 minutes ago, HeyAbbott said:

Sometimes there is an unserious seller.

 

Well, given the confirmation of the Vermeer's value you provided in a subsequent post, I'd say $12 million, or even £12 million, is itself a lowball offer to a serious seller, even in 2004.

[chasfh]

13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I can't imagine the Tiger offer is still on the table.

I would say their offer was never truly on the table, since it was at least 20% lower than the consensus on his target, and it was clear he was never going to take it.

So if the Tigers knew he wasn't going to take the offer, and then they pulled the offer from the table after it was rejected anyway, then I'm not sure what they were trying to accomplish with it, unless it was meant as some sort of performative gesture for the fan base, especially that portion who were not paying any attention to Correa's market in the first place.

Edited December 28, 2021 by chasfh

[Jim Cowan]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

So if the Tigers knew he wasn't going to take the offer, and then they pulled the offer from the table after it was rejected anyway, then I'm not sure what they were trying to accomplish with it, unless it was meant as some sort of performative gesture for the fan base, especially that portion who were not paying any attention to Correa's market in the first place.

I think that it is not on the table anymore, at least I hope not, because they signed Baez.  So, the job is filled now.  I think that their offer was in good faith.  They were saying that they would do the 10 years, which for many people is the bigger obstacle than the money.  They were also saying that they would not do 340, but might meet in the middle.  I don't think it was intended as a performance.  They have their reasons for thinking that he is not worth the Lindor money.

[chasfh]

15 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

I think that it is not on the table anymore, at least I hope not, because they signed Baez.  So, the job is filled now.  I think that their offer was in good faith.  They were saying that they would do the 10 years, which for many people is the bigger obstacle than the money.  They were also saying that they would not do 340, but might meet in the middle.  I don't think it was intended as a performance.  They have their reasons for thinking that he is not worth the Lindor money.

Sure, it's off the table because they got someone else who can credibly do the job. That makes sense. Although if they were serious about Correa they could slide Baez over to second or even third, put up with Schoop at first when they have to, or maybe make someone on the infield available in trade. They'd have options if they did pick him up. But they won't.

I suppose it's a defensible long shot to put 10/275 on the table for Correa on the off chance that they weren't going to be able to sign anyone else, and they market for Correa would fall down. Although at that point, if we're the top offer for Correa at 10/275 and everyone else is backing away from that, I'd be leery of following through with the deal.

[RatkoVarda]

With Lindor as a market marker, Correa wants 10 years (or more); he wants $34.1M AAV (or more); and he wants $341M total value (or more). (TV is complicated because Lindor has $50M deferred)

So far as we know, the only team to meet any of those thresholds is the Tigers (10 years).

Hard to see how that hurts Correa when negotiating with other teams.

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Sure, it's off the table because they got someone else who can credibly do the job

I only mentioned it because as noted, some of the media still act like the Tigers are a fall back for Correa and I don't that is true at all. I can't see any way the Tigers are interested in mirroring the Rangers.

[Tiger337]

The Tigers got their catcher, shortstop and starting pitcher and didn't spend like a drunken sailor just as Avila promised.  I don't expect any other major acquisitions, but there may be a couple of interesting pieces added.  

Edited December 28, 2021 by Tiger337

[IdahoBert]

22 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The Tigers got their catcher, shortstop and starting pitcher and didn't spend like a drunken sailor just as Avila promised.  I don't expect any other major acquisitions, but there may be a couple of interesting pieces added.  

He did exactly what he said he was going to do like a ninja assassin who doesn’t waste time and terminates with extreme prejudice. There’s something comforting in the precision of it all. 

[IdahoBert]

Vermeer? 

As for Baez, don’t know much about her but Joe Hill is pretty good.