2023 Detroit Tigers Regular Season Discussion Thread

[gehringer_2]

19 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Black man in the 1960s with a mind of his own and a penchant to tell us all about it? Check.

Careful, you're being woke.

[chasfh]

50 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Careful, you're being woke.

Who, li'l ol' me? 😇

[Jim Cowan]

First Black player on the Little Rock team, that probably went smoothly.

[Edman85]

6 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

I was not a fan of this pickup and honestly it could all go south after I post this but McKinstry's Savant page is pretty nice.
 

I'll just pat myself on the back for being much higher on it than the consensus.

[Jim Cowan]

I like all of the new guys better than every single guy that Harris replaced.

[chasfh]

22 hours ago, Edman85 said:

I'll just pat myself on the back for being much higher on it than the consensus.

😉

[roarintiger1]

Just a little tidbit on Miguel Cabrera.............At this point forward, he could go 0-200 and still keep his lifetime batting average over .300.    This means that he could be in the lineup for about 60 or so games yet.     I would hope that he would still get a few singles in those 200 at bats...........

[mtutiger]

Even aside from McKinstry, and with the caveat that it is a small sample, Andy Ibanez is another guy with ML experience he had stashed at Toledo and has made some contributions at the ML level since being called up.

Just doesn't seem like something that would have happened during the last administration... they probably would have rewarded loyalty to an org soldier 

[Shinzaki]

It would be great if Miggy finished with a lifetime BA of .300+....500 HRs isn't going to be as special going forward...but 3000 hits, 500 HR and a .300 average...that is something

Edited May 7, 2023 by Shinzaki

[bsc3165]

33 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

It would be great if Miggy finished with a lifetime BA of .300+....500 HRs isn't going to be as special going forward...but 3000 hits, 500 HR and a .300 average...that is something

& 600+ doubles & 1800+ RBI's. Still hoping (not expecting) a couple more Miggy moments this summer 

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, bsc3165 said:

& 600+ doubles & 1800+ RBI's. Still hoping (not expecting) a couple more Miggy moments this summer 

What could have been if his legs hadn’t failed him.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Even aside from McKinstry, and with the caveat that it is a small sample, Andy Ibanez is another guy with ML experience he had stashed at Toledo and has made some contributions at the ML level since being called up.

Just doesn't seem like something that would have happened during the last administration... they probably would have rewarded loyalty to an org soldier 

I didn't realize how much time Ibanez has spent at 2B in his professional career.  About twice as many innings at 2B as 3B.  I thought he was primarily a corner IF historically based in his recent seasons.  And maybe that skill set has shifted from the middle to the corners at this stage of his career.

[roarintiger1]

18 minutes ago, casimir said:

I didn't realize how much time Ibanez has spent at 2B in his professional career.  About twice as many innings at 2B as 3B.  I thought he was primarily a corner IF historically based in his recent seasons.  And maybe that skill set has shifted from the middle to the corners at this stage of his career.

So.......is he one of those guys that is good defensively anywhere but not great anywhere?    

[casimir]

BB% has gone from around 8% in April to 5% in May.

SO% has gone from around 28% in April to 20% in May.

Or, I guess another way to look at it is that balls put into play per plate appearance have gone from around 64% to 75% over the same time frames?  There's a bit of noise in there from hitters safe on errors, baserunning outs, HBP, etc, but I wouldn't think it drives off of the 64% or 75% all that much.

A better base running team than last season putting more balls into play lately.  I'm a fan.

[casimir]

4 minutes ago, roarintiger1 said:

So.......is he one of those guys that is good defensively anywhere but not great anywhere?    

Kind of like a Jose Macias type of defensively (who wasn't all that good defensively but found time at 2B and 3B)?  For some reason that comparison struck me yesterday.  And maybe he's not necessarily all that good if he's been moved to the corners by now.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

BB% has gone from around 8% in April to 5% in May.

SO% has gone from around 28% in April to 20% in May.

Or, I guess another way to look at it is that balls put into play per plate appearance have gone from around 64% to 75% over the same time frames?  There's a bit of noise in there from hitters safe on errors, baserunning outs, HBP, etc, but I wouldn't think it drives off of the 64% or 75% all that much.

A better base running team than last season putting more balls into play lately.  I'm a fan.

sort of implies that you have to let batters be the hitters they are if you want better results. It you want a team that walks more, go find hitters that walk - but if you try to make the hitters you have into hitters that walk, you will just get hitters that don't hit either.

Edited May 7, 2023 by gehringer_2

[bobrob2004]

The Tigers (15-18) are 3 games better than their pythagorean record (12-21).  Only the Marlins (17-18) have a better positive differential (11-24) of 6.  

The Tigers have had a better record than their pythagorean record ever since Hinch was hired as a manager (2 games better in 2021 and 3 games better in 2022).  There have been suggestions that teams that outproduce their pythagorean record is indicative of a good manager, so maybe I've been too critical of Hinch.

On the other hand, the findings have been inconclusive: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/3/17/5504652/manager-pythagorean-wins

 

[RandyMarsh]

The Marlins are 11-0 in 1 run games so no surprise about them. 

[Tiger337]

On 5/7/2023 at 2:02 PM, gehringer_2 said:

sort of implies that you have to let batters be the hitters they are if you want better results. It you want a team that walks more, go find hitters that walk - but if you try to make the hitters you have into hitters that walk, you will just get hitters that don't hit either.

But what they did this off-season, for the most part, was exchange guys that can't walk for guys that can.  A 5% walk rate isn't going to cut it in the long run unless they happen to be a bunch of sluggers which the Tigers aren't.  

Edited May 8, 2023 by Tiger337

[chasfh]

20 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

The Tigers (15-18) are 3 games better than their pythagorean record (12-21).  Only the Marlins (17-18) have a better positive differential (11-24) of 6.  

The Tigers have had a better record than their pythagorean record ever since Hinch was hired as a manager (2 games better in 2021 and 3 games better in 2022).  There have been suggestions that teams that outproduce their pythagorean record is indicative of a good manager, so maybe I've been too critical of Hinch.

On the other hand, the findings have been inconclusive: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/3/17/5504652/manager-pythagorean-wins

 

That’s actually kind of a bad omen for the rest of the season as the Tigers are likely, as teams probably are, to find their level back toward pythag. (That would be an interesting study: how do teams that perform well outside their pythag at various mileposts during the season end up playing for the rest of the year? Could it be more of a skill than we give it credit for?)

OTOH, we should always remember that this was always going to be a transition year in many years, including the weeding out of non-hackers and the acquisition of playoff-caliber talent throughout the system. Even if they still end up winning fewer than 70 games, I think it’ll hard to fault anyone along the way. Me, I’m enjoying the ride while it lasts.

[RandyMarsh]

Odds are you are going to regress to your pythag but seemingly every year there is a team that on paper isn't very good but ends up being in or near the playoffs cause they do indeed outplay it by several to double digit wins. Maybe we will be that team this year.

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Odds are you are going to regress to your pythag but seemingly every year there is a team that on paper isn't very good but ends up being in or near the playoffs cause they do indeed outplay it by several to double digit wins. Maybe we will be that team this year.

it might be interesting to test if a team's per game run differential variance corellated with the prediction strength of its pythag. It's easy enough to postulate a team where therere is a big drop off between the front and back of the BP, or who are strongly handed enough that they get shut out a lot by LHP for instance, so you end up with a disproportionate number or blow-outs and/or shut-outs, which in theory could make the teams pythagorean signal noisier than aveage.

[Tiger337]

37 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

it might be interesting to test if a team's per game run differential variance corellated with the prediction strength of its pythag. It's easy enough to postulate a team where therere is a big drop off between the front and back of the BP, or who are strongly handed enough that they get shut out a lot by LHP for instance, so you end up with a disproportionate number or blow-outs and/or shut-outs, which in theory could make the teams pythagorean signal noisier than aveage.

I don't have time to search right now, but I would think that someone has looked at ths before.  I know teams that are involved in a lot of close games tend to stray from their pythagorean estimates more than other teams.  Teams that play in a lot of low scoring games are more likely to be involved in close games, so I would guess that weak hitting, good pitching teams would be the ones which might not fit the pythagorean model as consistently especially if they have a good or bad bullpen.  

[gehringer_2]

39 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I know teams that are involved in a lot of close games tend to stray from their pythagorean estimates more than other teams.

Hmm- That's interesting, opposite of what I might have thought - On the assumption that close games are most often low scoring games, maybe in low scoring games the granularity of one run is what introduces the misfit.

[mtutiger]

Generally not great to cherry pick or discount specific results, but their pythag numbers have to be somewhat influenced by the early blowouts, particularly the 12-2 and 14-5 blowouts in the Tampa and Boston series respectively.

Absent those, they would probably still be overperforming, but more modestly. Either way, they're a team relying on the close W more than the blowout... really outside of their 8-1 game against the Mets, they really haven't had one of those this year iirc. If they have can add a few laughers to their repertoire, that would help.

Edited May 9, 2023 by mtutiger