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2024 NFC Championship Game: Detroit Lions (14-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (13-5)


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SF beats many teams just on the strength of their front 7.  They stuff the run and destroy the pass game with their rush.  They are going to win some battles but I’m confident the Lions OL won’t let them wreck the game plan and paralyze them in passing situations.    

SF has had to fight through some injuries in their secondary and there are matchups the Lions will be able to take advantage of in the pass game.   I’d really love to see them dust off a few Jamo shots in this game even if it’s just to loosen them up.    The same goes with Ben finding a way to get Gibbs matched up against one of their LB in the flat.  

I feel very confident in the Lions ability to start strong and to close.   The game will come down how they perform to start the second half.  They can’t have yet another turd quarter where the offense loses rhythm and they tread water for a quarter.  That’s my biggest fear.   I am also very concerned about CMC.  GB did a great job against him last week but Shanahan keeps feeding his guy and he ended up breaking 2 strong TD runs.   They need to stay focused as even if he’s contained, it just takes 1 play for him to pop and affect the game.  

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2 hours ago, oblong said:

The WSJ called the Lions the biggest sports story right now, and said it's not even close.  The rest of the country is buying into this team.  Dan Campbell's picture showed up on the freaking Drudge Report in a link to a story about him.

Given all of that I don't see why the league, if they did fix or prefer things, would do it against the Lions.  It doesn't pass the smell test.  This is not a brief cinderella story. It's someting that was started midway through last season and kept going and there's no reason to think it won't continue.  They didn't come out of nowhere.   Stories like that are good for business and that's what the NFL cares about.

 

Yeah, there is no conspiracy and there is no fix. The Lions have simply been a punching bag for the last five decades. They were not respected, they did not get the benefit of any doubt.

But I think the blown call in the Dallas game might have forced NFL officials to realize that these are not the same old Lions. These lions are actually good and a successful play does not mean that they got away with something. It might be harder for officials to throw a marginal flag, or to pick up a legitimate flag, now that one of their own has been so thoroughly and publicly humiliated for what had been routine treatment of the Lions. 

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18 hours ago, Hongbit said:

SF beats many teams just on the strength of their front 7.  They stuff the run and destroy the pass game with their rush.  They are going to win some battles but I’m confident the Lions OL won’t let them wreck the game plan and paralyze them in passing situations.    

SF has had to fight through some injuries in their secondary and there are matchups the Lions will be able to take advantage of in the pass game.   I’d really love to see them dust off a few Jamo shots in this game even if it’s just to loosen them up.    The same goes with Ben finding a way to get Gibbs matched up against one of their LB in the flat.  

I feel very confident in the Lions ability to start strong and to close.   The game will come down how they perform to start the second half.  They can’t have yet another turd quarter where the offense loses rhythm and they tread water for a quarter.  That’s my biggest fear.   I am also very concerned about CMC.  GB did a great job against him last week but Shanahan keeps feeding his guy and he ended up breaking 2 strong TD runs.   They need to stay focused as even if he’s contained, it just takes 1 play for him to pop and affect the game.  

The Niners are actually very susceptible against the run, it's why I always thought they were a good matchup for the Lions. The Lions were somewhat pass happy last week because they were playing against an elite run defense but I think we'll see more of an emphasis on the run in this game.

Edited by NYLion
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11 minutes ago, NYLion said:

The Niners are actually very susceptible against the run, it's why I always thought they were a good matchup for the Lions. The Lions were somewhat pass happy last week because they were playing against an elite run defense but I think we'll see more of an emphasis on the run in this game.

The Niners really rely on their run game and their pass rush. The Lions are exactly the team that can stop their run game and limit their pass rush, forcing them into uncomfortable positions. It’s why I think the spread is insane. It should be around Niners -3.

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4 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

The Niners really rely on their run game and their pass rush. The Lions are exactly the team that can stop their run game and limit their pass rush, forcing them into uncomfortable positions. It’s why I think the spread is insane. It should be around Niners -3.

I know McCaffery is the best RB in the NFL and is truly a special player. But if we can hold him under 100 and keep him out of the end zone that's going to force Purdy to have to beat us. I think we can win that type of game.

Maybe none of that happens and we get routed because we are outmatched by a superior 49'ers team. That could be the case. However, I really do like to think we have a chance in this one,

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I do not own any Lions gear.  I was going to get something last month but decided I didn't want to jinx anything.... same is true with Michigan.  So while I will wear something blue on Sunday it won't be Lions related. Not until after. 

 

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1 minute ago, oblong said:

I do not own any Lions gear.  I was going to get something last month but decided I didn't want to jinx anything.... same is true with Michigan.  So while I will wear something blue on Sunday it won't be Lions related. Not until after. 

 

Might as well wait and grab the Super Bowl Champion gear at this point!

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21 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

The Niners really rely on their run game and their pass rush. The Lions are exactly the team that can stop their run game and limit their pass rush, forcing them into uncomfortable positions. It’s why I think the spread is insane. It should be around Niners -3.

I can understand the spread, the Niners are the more proven commodity and have played at a more consistently high level than the Lions this year and I'm fine with it because I think the Lions will thrive in the underdog role.

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On 1/23/2024 at 2:01 PM, Tenacious D said:

I’m paying $800 for a ticket to the NFC Championship game.  Cause I can’t bring myself to pay this for the Superbowl

I've heard that there is a lottery among season ticket holders for the opportunity to purchase Super Bowl tickets at "face value".... Not sure what they define that as.

Either way, if the Lions win Sunday, I think I'll go to Vegas. I'm sure I'll find a spot at a bar with plenty of Lions fans around.

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1 minute ago, NYLion said:

I can understand the spread, the Niners are the more proven commodity and have played at a more consistently high level than the Lions this year and I'm fine with it because I think the Lions will thrive in the underdog role.

Maybe to the lay community. Vegas isn't stupid, obviously they're getting money on both sides at -7, so that's why it's the line. But the 49ers were 12-5 and won one close game in the playoffs, the Lions were 12-5 and won two close games in the playoffs (though never trailed in either game). The 49ers have been there before, but I don't know how much that really matters in a one game win-and-you're-in scenario. I think these teams are extremely similar.

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Just now, MichiganCardinal said:

I've heard that there is a lottery among season ticket holders for the opportunity to purchase Super Bowl tickets at "face value".... Not sure what they define that as.

Either way, if the Lions win Sunday, I think I'll go to Vegas. I'm sure I'll find a spot at a bar with plenty of Lions fans around.

I remember when it was here and learning about the ticket distribution.... it gets divvied up pretty fast.  You figure the allotment for the teams involved.  Plus the Home stadium gets some for it's ticket holders, I know the Lions had a lottery for theirs.  Then the league itself, plus all the other teams, and add in the advertisers that want their share... they go pretty fast.

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1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Maybe to the lay community. Vegas isn't stupid, obviously they're getting money on both sides at -7, so that's why it's the line. But the 49ers were 12-5 and won one close game in the playoffs, the Lions were 12-5 and won two close games in the playoffs (though never trailed in either game). The 49ers have been there before, but I don't know how much that really matters in a one game win-and-you're-in scenario. I think these teams are extremely similar.

The one caveat is that at this point seasonal records don't mean nearly as much as the relative health of each team. The Lions are pretty banged up, I'm sure that's true of the Niners as well, but which team can field the most guys closest to 100% can easily be the deciding factor.

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41 minutes ago, NYLion said:

The Niners are actually very susceptible against the run, it's why I always thought they were a good matchup for the Lions. The Lions were somewhat pass happy last week because they were playing against an elite run defense but I think we'll see more of an emphasis on the run in this game.

Ditto. Big time.

28 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

The Niners really rely on their run game and their pass rush. The Lions are exactly the team that can stop their run game and limit their pass rush, forcing them into uncomfortable positions. It’s why I think the spread is insane. It should be around Niners -3.

I argued this exactly.

They came out at -7.

What are they looking at?

IMO... they're not looking...

So... if I were a betting man (I'm not)...

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1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

The one caveat is that at this point seasonal records don't mean nearly as much as the relative health of each team. The Lions are pretty banged up, I'm sure that's true of the Niners as well, but which team can field the most guys closest to 100% can easily be the deciding factor.

The 49ers may be without Deebo and have a losing record when he doesn't play. 

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5 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

... but I don't know how much that really matters in a one game win-and-you're-in scenario. I think these teams are extremely similar.

Better than that:

Their weakness is run defense, and we have a good running game (and O-Line).

Our strength is run defense. We have a chance at shutting down CMC, as dangerous as he is. Forcing the game onto Purdy's shoulders and unleashing our blitz and win-turnovers game.

Our dissimilarities give us a chance. IMO.

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