Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[mtutiger]

37 minutes ago, microline133 said:

One of the keys to reading national prospect lists is to understand where their information comes from. Both Bowden and BA are heavily reliant on internal org sources and org assessments (hint, orgs tend to pump their own players when they talk to the media), as opposed to external sources/assessments. 

Fair enough. But even so, I assume the Tigers arent the only organization talking to Baseball America or Jim Bowden and both still have to objectively look at player profiles to generate a list.

And with BA in particular, given that their org ranking for the Tigers (27) is lower than other outlets, IDK if they have an institutional bias toward the Tigers in their analysis.

Edited September 3, 2022 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, microline133 said:

I haven't found anyone that is terribly impressed by Perez. General consensus seems to be he probably reaches the big leagues eventually, but in a utility/bench role. Meadows has garnered a little more praise, but I still haven't found anyone that suddenly believes he's an above-average regular. Given his developmental arc and the swing and miss still present in his game, I think he's going to have to continue to perform to convert the scout types...had the arc been a little more positive from the start, there's a decent chance you may have seen some guys come around sooner this year.

Parker's turnaround has been so abrupt it's reasonable to be skeptical that it could be as much fluke as development. All he has to do to shift the narrative is.... keep it up.

[mtutiger]

50 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Parker's turnaround has been so abrupt it's reasonable to be skeptical that it could be as much fluke as development. All he has to do to shift the narrative is.... keep it up.

With both Parker and Wenceel, I would rather they have a resurgence despite the skepticism that comes with it than the alternative of them continuing to suck in the minors.

At least with the former, there's a chance you get a big leaguer out of either or both of them. It didn't look that way a few months ago. There's nothing wrong with being happy about that outcome

Edited September 3, 2022 by mtutiger

[buddha]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Absolutely. I don't see anyone who has stated "oh wow,  these guys are our next Aces...'

 

Again, and to reiterate mtutiger: perfectly fine. A rotation has to be filled out and I don't expect 5 Aces (my definition is just a guy who fits into a top 3 spot on a pennant contending team...) to be in our rotation. As how I see it, we have a crapload of back-end rotation guys who will end up as (A) 4th and 5th starters for the Tigers, or... (B) pushed into the bullpen as middle/ long relievers/ spot starters or... (C) Stall out in AAA as 6th/ 7th/ 8th starters.

I really hope Manning/ Skubal/ Mize/ Jobe/ Turnbull can find their way into those top 3 spots in a future Tigers rotation. Maybe Eduardo is already a top 3 guy. At least a couple of those guys I think we all hope make it to the top of the rotation. And I don't expect all 5 of those guys to make it. But... in order to finish out the rotation, if one of those guys gets traded/ FA/ injured/ can't cut it... we turn to the Wentz/ Brieske/ Madden/ Olson/ Flores/ Hill types and hope that at least a couple of those guys can hang in MLB and pitch well enough to hold onto those 4th and 5th starter spots. Or be available at AAA to pop up during the season a few times for a few starts... as needed.

But I'm just thinking out loud here... About our future that is.

84!  you called this group of prospects our next "1984 tigers"!  youre the the most optimistic tigers fan in the universe!  lol.

and we all love you for it.  ❤

[Tenacious D]

I keep seeing the Twitter bubble referenced—not sure who all this entails, but the ones I’m aware of I view mostly as Tigers fans.  Emily seems nice, but it seems like she is typically sharing information that she comes across. I view Dan Hasty as an employee of the Tigers org and he is probably the most sunny and optimistic guy on the platform—he’d find positives in Jeffrey Dahmer if he was a Whitecap.  Chris C doesn’t profess to be an analyst—just a very engaging and passionate super fan.  Not sure who else is part of the Twitter mafia, but I really doubt that anyone here puts too much stock in any of it.  I’ve learned much more from people here, like Gehringer, mutiger, Buddha, etc..  even still, I don’t agree with all of their perspectives.  It’s called critical thinking, and we all possess it.  To suggest otherwise is both incorrect and douchy.

[mtutiger]

47 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I keep seeing the Twitter bubble referenced—not sure who all this entails, but the ones I’m aware of I view mostly as Tigers fans.  Emily seems nice, but it seems like she is typically sharing information that she comes across. I view Dan Hasty as an employee of the Tigers org and he is probably the most sunny and optimistic guy on the platform—he’d find positives in Jeffrey Dahmer if he was a Whitecap.  Chris C doesn’t profess to be an analyst—just a very engaging and passionate super fan.  Not sure who else is part of the Twitter mafia, but I really doubt that anyone here puts too much stock in any of it.  I’ve learned much more from people here, like Gehringer, mutiger, Buddha, etc..  even still, I don’t agree with all of their perspectives.  It’s called critical thinking, and we all possess it.  To suggest otherwise is both incorrect and douchy.

I do think the reasons that Dan Hasty and Emily Waldon types take heat are valid... a lot of the coverage is rosy and human-interest driven versus the facts.

Having said that, I don't know that relentless negativity about any positive development that happens within the Tigers system is any better or any less an example of "bubble" thinking. 

Put another way, one can acknowledge and be pleased with the progress of guys like Meadows or Perez (especially given expectations coming into the season) or even the promise of guys like Flores or Madden while still being clear eyed that they may or may not make it. Or that their ceilings may not be that high. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

25 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

ut another way, one can acknowledge and be pleased with the progress of guys like Meadows or Perez (especially given expectations coming into the season) or even the promise of guys like Flores or Madden while still being clear eyed that they may or may not make it. Or that their ceilings may not be that high. 

that way I look at it is that you never do know where a hitter's ceiling is going to be. He can OPS 1000 at every level up to AAA and still crash and burn in the majors, but one other thing is also true, guys that can't excel where they are are never going to get to the next level let alone the majors, so every time a guy plays well enough to be a candidate to be leveled up, that's a good thing for the org and a positive for a fan.

Pitchers are a little easier I think, and maybe that is why a low competence organization has managed to do better with them. You can measure that a guy has a big league fastball when he's at A ball. You may not know if he will develop the command or consistency to be effective in the majors, but the arm and the pitch shape are there to see regardless of the level of hitter he is throwing to. OTOH, it's really hard to evaluate whether even a good MiLB hitter's pitch recognition skill is going to be good enough against MLB pitching until he faces it.

Edited September 3, 2022 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

Speakinz of the devilz:

Flores in 5 innings at Erie 1 hit 2 BB's and 7 K's.

Also, Parker hit 2 doubles in a 2 for 4.

[RandyMarsh]

 

Jobe goes 5 2/3 innings of shutout baseball in WM tonight with 3Ks and 3BBs. Not ideal K/BB ratio but can't argue with not giving up any runs, also according to Hasty the FB was up to 98 which is a good sign. 

[buddha]

4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I do think the reasons that Dan Hasty and Emily Waldon types take heat are valid... a lot of the coverage is rosy and human-interest driven versus the facts.

Having said that, I don't know that relentless negativity about any positive development that happens within the Tigers system is any better or any less an example of "bubble" thinking. 

Put another way, one can acknowledge and be pleased with the progress of guys like Meadows or Perez (especially given expectations coming into the season) or even the promise of guys like Flores or Madden while still being clear eyed that they may or may not make it. Or that their ceilings may not be that high. 

"relentless negativity" is just reality.  when they start to get actual good results at the major league level, maybe we'll be more positive?  until then, the burden of proof is on them to show us that these A ball all stars will turn into actual players.

micro is the only person on this site with scouting chops and he bursts your bubble 9.5 times out of 10.  

you always complain about those of us who dont believe in the tigers' current crop of prospects.  well, are we wrong?  

[1984Echoes]

49 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Jobe goes 5 2/3 innings of shutout baseball in WM tonight with 3Ks and 3BBs. Not ideal K/BB ratio but can't argue with not giving up any runs, also according to Hasty the FB was up to 98 which is a good sign. 

 

The critical issue with Jobe is to develop his pitches... I think the results will kick up soon enough. I'd like to see him in Erie next year...

[1984Echoes]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

"relentless negativity" is just reality.  when they start to get actual good results at the major league level, maybe we'll be more positive?  until then, the burden of proof is on them to show us that these A ball all stars will turn into actual players.

micro is the only person on this site with scouting chops and he bursts your bubble 9.5 times out of 10.  

you always complain about those of us who dont believe in the tigers' current crop of prospects.  well, are we wrong?  

Too early to say...

[buddha]

11 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Too early to say...

i'm willing to take that bet.

[1984Echoes]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

i'm willing to take that bet.

Oh don't put money on that... you'll lose.

Seriously, you're betting that Avila's group of prospects are all going to fail?

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

"relentless negativity" is just reality.  when they start to get actual good results at the major league level, maybe we'll be more positive?  until then, the burden of proof is on them to show us that these A ball all stars will turn into actual players.

Do the players in this instance have any agency? Aren't they the ones out on the field playing the games, striking guys out or accumulating hits and runs?

1 hour ago, buddha said:

micro is the only person on this site with scouting chops and he bursts your bubble 9.5 times out of 10.  

OK?

I appreciate his insight, we are lucky to have it on this board,, but people are still allowed to take interest in the Tigers minor leaguers and wish for success even if they don't have a background in scouting.

1 hour ago, buddha said:

you always complain about those of us who dont believe in the tigers' current crop of prospects.  well, are we wrong?  

You are entitled to your opinion. I am entitled to see things differently. But at the end of the day, I'm not predisposed to be negative and jaded all the time in my fandom, so I will continue to watch and follow and hope for the best. I understand that others approach being a fan differently and respect that.

We will find out in time if any of the guys we have been talking about over the past year or so pan out.

Edited September 4, 2022 by mtutiger

[RandyMarsh]

I just like how several players in the system seemed to take steps forward this year and in many cases kept getting better as they moved up in competition, it gives me hope that maybe we have something in Garko and Co. on the player development side and can hopefully in due time start to produce MLB caliber prospects regularly like some of the better organizations do.  

[buddha]

52 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Oh don't put money on that... you'll lose.

Seriously, you're betting that Avila's group of prospects are all going to fail?

they wont all fail, but most of them will.

[buddha]

17 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Do the players in this instance have any agency? Aren't they the ones out on the field playing the games, striking guys out or accumulating hits and runs?

OK?

I appreciate his insight, we are lucky to have it on this board,, but people are still allowed to take interest in the Tigers minor leaguers and wish for success even if they don't have a background in scouting.

You are entitled to your opinion. I am entitled to see things differently. But at the end of the day, I'm not predisposed to be negative and jaded all the time in my fandom, so I will continue to watch and follow and hope for the best. I understand that others approach being a fan differently and respect that.

We will find out in time if any of the guys we have been talking about over the past year or so pan out.

its not being jaded, its an opinion based on history and evidence.

you always do this.  you act like someone isnt allowing you to have an opinion.  you act like because i disagree with you, im somehow saying you cant think what you want.  you can believe whatever you want and justify it however you want to.  you can watch and think they'll be successful, nobody is saying you cant.  i hope youre right.

[Shinzaki]

They will or they won't...it's a 50/50 proposition.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

its not being jaded, its an opinion based on history and evidence.

I guess where we disagree is that players have agency in terms of wherever their ceiling is. It isn't just inherent to whatever org they are part of, which largely seems to be the argument I see on here.

7 minutes ago, buddha said:

you always do this.  you act like someone isnt allowing you to have an opinion.  you act like because i disagree with you, im somehow saying you cant think what you want.  you can believe whatever you want and justify it however you want to.  you can watch and think they'll be successful, nobody is saying you cant.  i hope youre right.

I dont know if any of them will be successful or not, to be honest. 

[Edman85]

15 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I do think the reasons that Dan Hasty and Emily Waldon types take heat are valid... a lot of the coverage is rosy and human-interest driven versus the facts.

Having said that, I don't know that relentless negativity about any positive development that happens within the Tigers system is any better or any less an example of "bubble" thinking. 

Put another way, one can acknowledge and be pleased with the progress of guys like Meadows or Perez (especially given expectations coming into the season) or even the promise of guys like Flores or Madden while still being clear eyed that they may or may not make it. Or that their ceilings may not be that high. 

I would argue a lot of the highlight tweeting accounts are in the same bucket as Hasty/Emily. Take that tweet a couple weeks ago that showed a play Jung made that was really a very poor play at 2B, but they spun it as some great play. Tweeting highlights is obviously going to have some selection bias baked in unless you show their Javier Baez moments on sliders away.

[mtutiger]

9 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I just like how several players in the system seemed to take steps forward this year and in many cases kept getting better as they moved up in competition, it gives me hope that maybe we have something in Garko and Co. on the player development side and can hopefully in due time start to produce MLB caliber prospects regularly like some of the better organizations do.  

Yeah - definitely nothing wrong with celebrating the small victories while acknowledging the bigger picture remains grim.

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I would argue a lot of the highlight tweeting accounts are in the same bucket as Hasty/Emily. Take that tweet a couple weeks ago that showed a play Jung made that was really a very poor play at 2B, but they spun it as some great play. Tweeting highlights is obviously going to have some selection bias baked in unless you show their Javier Baez moments on sliders away.

I remember the video you are referring to and agree. 

[1984Echoes]

Chance Kirby's day to shine:

6 shutout inn's with 2 hits 1 BB 6 K's and...

Whoops! He pitched the 7th too and just gave up 3 runs including a HR...

Another late rounder (25th round in 2018) with a nice minor league career (340 inn's and 1.10 WHIP, 2.52 ERA this year in AA with a 0.98 WHIP...), but he's 27 already and I don't believe he's on the Beau Brieske/ Garrett Hill arc... but I just wanted to give a shout out to him...

Brendan White followed him... (ANOTHER Al Avila late rounder, 26th round in 2019), he's only 23 years old with a career (in the minors) 191 innings and 1.23 WHIP. K's about 9 per 9, this year at AA 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and 9.8 K's/9: uncertain if he follows the Garrett Hill path to MLB, maybe as a middle reliever? Just adding him to the stockpile... Giving him a shout out too. Chances are...

Parker so far today with another double, 2 for 4 and also his 15the steal of the year.

2 more innings to go for Erie to close this out...

Toledo:

Wentz had a short outing with 3 inn's 5 hits, 1 BB, 1 ER, and 3 K's... pitch count?

They have 11 hits and 5 BB's today but there's no one there that I'm currently excited about...

Maybe Ali Sanchez as a backup catcher? .732 OPS this year in AAA before today's 3 for 4 (all singles). He's playing 1st Base so they're trying to expand his positions for a utility role in 2023? I could do that. Rogers at Catcher and Haase backing up + OF/ RH'd DH and Sanchez as backup catcher and 1B and...? I think he's the better defensive catcher so he's our #1 backup catcher next year? Just a WAG...

[casimir]

Sanchez is probably playing 1B because that position was previously handled by Torkelson and Lester, both of whom are with Detroit now.