Tigers Hire Scott Harris as President of Baseball Operations

[1984Echoes]

44 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

... The Royals won't trade Melendez, and would probably ask for one of Greene/Torkelson or some package equating somebody of that ilk.

Melendez was a 2nd round pick who hit .237 in the minors with an .800 OPS. He's a LH'ed platoon catcher hitting .224 in the majors with a .721 OPS.

Can you explain to me how that gets an ask of Greene or Tork or similar ilk?

[Edman85]

14 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Melendez was a 2nd round pick who hit .237 in the minors with an .800 OPS. He's a LH'ed platoon catcher hitting .224 in the majors with a .721 OPS.

Can you explain to me how that gets an ask of Greene or Tork or similar ilk?

He was a top 30-50 prospect coming into the year, and has acquitted himself relatively nicely in the bigs, especially compared to Tork.

He's been playing every day, not platooning. Called up in early May and has 480 PA. He's a centerpiece for their team, they can mix and match with Perez, DH/LF'ing the other. They aren't going to give him away for a song.

[Edman85]

51 minutes ago, casimir said:

What kind of prospect is Melendez?  I don't have a clue.  He's out up some pretty good minor league numbers.  He's been a good enough player for them to get his bat into the lineup as an OF and even DH.  If they're asking for one of Greene/Torkelson, than there's no way.

Coming into the year,

Fangraphs #21

ESPN #24

BA #42

Pipeline #51

I was confused why people seemed to think he'd be available for free. He isn't.

[1984Echoes]

Why does every guy that we might have an interest in going to cost Greene + Tork +6 other prospects because all our Tigers are total crap and every other player from another team is pure gold.

And then I'll here "just being realistic". No, that's not realistic at all.

So... I have an idea... how about whatever trade is proposed, a comp trade or two is offered as evidence that the trade proposal is realistic. I think there's a new baseball trade proposal tool out there too, that has valuations for minor leaguers as well... might help us out a bit.

So if I propose two top 10 1st rounders with less than 1 year experience plus 4 complimentary prospects for a young Miggy Cabrera... I can go find a comp trade...

Or use this trade simulator to check:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

On Kreidler/ Candelario for Peraza/ Donaldson (suggested trade): per the trade simulator, we'd get 3.8 in value (Donaldson is a minus 19 so there's not only the deuche, but also at the end of career/ contract performing badly component). Versus the Yankees getting 6.2 in trade value. Candy doesn't have much value. But this trade is probably realistic enough to get done. Volpe BTW has a trade value of 52.6 versus Peraza's 22.8. I'm not certain how these are calc'd but I'm assuming they are related to prospect rankings etc... So I would just guess... if the Yankees are feeling the same way, we could get Peraza, not Volpe in this trade.

On Melendez for Tork or Greene or similar: Melendez has a 26.2 value (??? Wow! What?!)... and Greene has a value of 70.3, ok, got it now, Tork a value of 33.3 (selling low, I would refuse to trade him until he fixes himself first...). Obviously the Tigers would never make a trade like that for him. Similar matchups per the simulator: Turnbull (I would certainly trade him) and Manning (nope) have similar trading grades, if the Royals were desperate for pitching and would consider trading Melendez for a starter. Or... a couple lower level prospects in Dingler and Graham add up to his value. This really says that there is value in waiting for a prospect to get a couple years in MLB to establish real value or they have to do some hot hitting in the minors to create that value (which Dingler & Graham have not done yet...).

[1984Echoes]

7 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Coming into the year,

Fangraphs #21

ESPN #24

BA #42

Pipeline #51

I was confused why people seemed to think he'd be available for free. He isn't.

No one is saying for free.

But the bottom line to me is production.

Nice player... but he ain't all that either.

[RandyMarsh]

I don't know if it would cost Tork or Greene but if a guy was a top 30 prospect coming into the season I'm sure it would take quite a bit to get him especially if he has held his own up here.  

[1984Echoes]

A guy who hits a .721 OPS, or an .800 OPS in the minors...?

Yeah, no thanks.

 

 

 

 

[RandyMarsh]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

A guy who hits a .721 OPS, or an .800 OPS in the minors...?

Yeah, no thanks.

 

 

 

 

For a catcher in this environment at his age that's pretty damn good, I mean there's a reason he was ranked as highly as he was. Regardless though I don't really care about our catcher at this point, our production there has been middle of the pack this year and that's despite Barnhart being one of the worst hitters in baseball. If we just got even half way decent production from our backup we'd probably be in the top 10, it's actually one of our better positions at this point relative to the league. 

[Edman85]

9 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

A guy who hits a .721 OPS, or an .800 OPS in the minors...?

Yeah, no thanks.

 

 

 

 

Torkelson just got his above .600 after a hot streak, and plays a position where a bit more is warranted...

[1984Echoes]

Also...

At no point did I say the Tigers MUST trade for Melendez or the Royals MUST trade him to us...

So please don't attack this like "what a ridiculous idea".

The idea is NOT that we MUST trade for Melendez... but rather... I would love Harris to keep his eye out there and be able to pick up similar types of players, whomever they may be. I think he has that ability when we are talking about picking up waiver claim guys and sifting through players to see what sticks. He's made a 100 trades with the Giants sifting through guys... and if it isn't Melendez, maybe he can find similar production by picking up someone similar but who has fallen "under-the-radar".

That's the only reason I mentioned him... was that that would be the type of guy that Harris could "uncover".

And... if the Royals were actually desperate for pitching to the point they would be happy with Turnbull plus Dingler (I don't know that they are, probably not...), then fine, do it.

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, Edman85 said:

Torkelson just got his above .600 after a hot streak, and plays a position where a bit more is warranted...

Which means we should sell him at his lowest valuation point?

Because he will never do any better than that?

[Edman85]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

Which means we should sell him at his lowest valuation point?

Because he will never do any better than that?

When did I say he should be traded? He shouldn't be. Just saying if you want Melendez, that is the ilk of player you will be giving up.

[1984Echoes]

Tork? 

Nope.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Coming into the year,

Fangraphs #21

ESPN #24

BA #42

Pipeline #51

I was confused why people seemed to think he'd be available for free. He isn't.

Thanks.  And along with those rankings are some good minor league numbers to kind of back it up. 

I understand he won't be free.  Add in the facts that he plays for a team that likes to build from within and that the current starting C Perez is getting some salt to go with the pepper, and he's a tough pull, sure.  Heck, they might start looking to get Perez out from behind the plate more while keeping his bat in the lineup.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

A guy who hits a .721 OPS, or an .800 OPS in the minors...?

Yeah, no thanks.

 

 

 

 

This is rich coming from someone thinking that Daz Cameron has a future with the Tigers.

[RandyMarsh]

It's a lot of ifs but I think the ifs are plausible and that's if Greene and Tork turn into impact bats like we originally expected, Baez hits like he has the past couple months, Carpenter is a league average or slightly better bat and Meadows comes back healthy like his old self next year the offense won't look so bad. 

For reference We're 20th in runs scored in the past month with Baez playing better, if you add a better Greene/Tork to that along with Meadows and maybe a FA upgrade and it's not hard to see where we could be in the 10-15th range next year. If we can get there and the pitching holds up like it has this year and we could be alot better. 

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

It's a lot of ifs but I think the ifs are plausible and that's if Greene and Tork turn into impact bats like we originally expected, Baez hits like he has the past couple months, Carpenter is a league average or slightly better bat and Meadows comes back healthy like his old self next year the offense won't look so bad. 

For reference We're 20th in runs scored in the past month with Baez playing better, if you add a better Greene/Tork to that along with Meadows and maybe a FA upgrade and it's not hard to see where we could be in the 10-15th range next year. If we can get there and the pitching holds up like it has this year and we could be alot better. 

Average luck will tend towad average. The Tigers are not likely to suffer another year of craptastic misfortune like this one any time soon. The trick is trying to figure what was bad luck for players who will rebound and what was players that have to go. Which all comes down to player evaluation. The org needs to be able to figure out which guys are doing it right but having bad luck vs the guys who are not going to get better - or exactly what the org has been failing at for the last several years.....

[SoCalTiger]

5 hours ago, Edman85 said:

 

So we are already tasking Hinch and the coaching staff with working with the new front office processes, overhauling development, and trying to problem solve this team's issues. Let's just add a redass malcontent who can't play 3B anymore. Oh, and I'm sure Baez would willingly move off shortstop and not cause any clubhouse issues. Buy-in next year is going to be huge, and this just seems to be standing in the way of that.

Pass.

The Royals won't trade Melendez, and would probably ask for one of Greene/Torkelson or some package equating somebody of that ilk.

I was thinking Peraza for second base and infield depth. Not necessarily to move Baez who I have said and think is fine at short. Donaldson would be the cost to get Peraza without having to trade much back and he would fill 3B for one year as Kriedler plays AAA. Maybe a red ass might help if channeled also. 
The Yankees want to sign Judge and pare payroll to do so and that might present opportunity. 

[sabretooth]

4 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Coming into the year,

Fangraphs #21

ESPN #24

BA #42

Pipeline #51

I was confused why people seemed to think he'd be available for free. He isn't.

Well its not "people" that are saying this...one person.

[sabretooth]

For what its worth I dont want them to trade Tork or Greene.

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

It's a lot of ifs but I think the ifs are plausible and that's if Greene and Tork turn into impact bats like we originally expected, Baez hits like he has the past couple months, Carpenter is a league average or slightly better bat and Meadows comes back healthy like his old self next year the offense won't look so bad. 

For reference We're 20th in runs scored in the past month with Baez playing better, if you add a better Greene/Tork to that along with Meadows and maybe a FA upgrade and it's not hard to see where we could be in the 10-15th range next year. If we can get there and the pitching holds up like it has this year and we could be alot better. 

The offense has some serious holes, but the real Achilles Heel of this team for the next couple of years is the starting rotation.  After Manning and ERod, who are not currently reliable/above average, they have only replacement/recovery/AAAA guys for 2023 and 2024.  Wentz looks promising but he has to get and stay healthy for once.

They could fix the offense, continue to have a really good BP, and still be a losing team if they rely on the pitchers available from within the roster/system for 2023-2024.

Madden, and Flores look like they could be good, but likely beyond 2024.

[sabretooth]

If they want to have any chance to have a winning record in the next two years, they are going to need to add one very good starting pitcher from the outside and another at least average SP.

Edited September 24, 2022 by sabretooth

[RandyMarsh]

2 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

The offense has some serious holes, but the real Achilles Heel of this team for the next couple of years is the starting rotation.  After Manning and ERod, who are not currently reliable/above average, they have only replacement/recovery/AAAA guys for 2023 and 2024.  Wentz looks promising but he has to get and stay healthy for once.

They could fix the offense, continue to have a really good BP, and still be a losing team if they rely on the pitchers available from within the roster/system for 2023-2024.

Madden, and Flores look like they could be good, but likely beyond 2024.

He's coming off TJ so you never know but they will be getting Turnbull back to start the year and hopefully Skubal by June but yeah still a lot of question marks but if all goes well it may not be as bad as it seems right now.

[sabretooth]

30 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

He's coming off TJ so you never know but they will be getting Turnbull back to start the year and hopefully Skubal by June but yeah still a lot of question marks but if all goes well it may not be as bad as it seems right now.

Skubal got us 1.7 WAR in 21 healthy starts including a very good 11 start run.  If he comes back in May as hoped, he will get a similar # of starts in 2023, and he wont be as healthy.  If things go well for him he will be around 1.5 WAR again.

I like Turnbull, but he was an OK or maybe better pitcher, now coming off TJ surgery.  We cant expect much positive out of that, but we can hope, as you suggested.

Edited September 24, 2022 by sabretooth

[Edman85]

3 hours ago, casimir said:

Thanks.  And along with those rankings are some good minor league numbers to kind of back it up. 

I understand he won't be free.  Add in the facts that he plays for a team that likes to build from within and that the current starting C Perez is getting some salt to go with the pepper, and he's a tough pull, sure.  Heck, they might start looking to get Perez out from behind the plate more while keeping his bat in the lineup.

That's exactly what they've been doing all year. When Melendez catches, Salvy DH's. When Perez catches, Melendez is in left field. When they went to Toronto, Melendez stayed home and did some more of his research.