chasfh Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 22 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: IDK, Santiago purportedly works with these guys tirelessly. In Willi's case I tend to see him as having poor instincts - he doesn't make plays because he doesn't anticipate them and so is late, and he just doesn't have a quick upper body on the DP turn. I haven't paid as much attention to Niko this season - I'm a little surprised he is that low. He does have somewhat stiff hands - you see him sometimes get to a play but then not be able to complete the catch. Short is the best fielder of the group and it's not close, but he's a little unreliable - I would guess it's just errors/misplays that hold back his numbers. I wouldn't think Paredes has enough reps for defensive numbers to mean anything. By the eye test he's looked at least adequate at 2b and 3b. I wish we had had a chance to see Kreidler play. I know the team doesn't need to see him in Det to make a judgment on his fielding but would have been more fun if they had giving us arm chair folks some more off season fodder... Granting that all this is correct, I still wonder whether this can be fixed by improved coaching, or whether this is necessarily as good as can be expected. Maybe Santiago is not the guy to fix them. Maybe there’s someone better at it who could fix them. And maybe, as you imply, they can’t be fixed no matter who works with them. Who knows. I do know this: we have to improve our defense enough so that we are not literally the worst offense in the league. Because if we remain so, we probably won’t go very far even with above average hitting and FIP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 17 hours ago, Dan Gilmore said: Fair enough, what about 5/125? Is that long term enough? I don’t think Story has the value to expect much more than that, but admit I am not very knowledgeable. A shorter period with opts outs would be good for the Tigers, including the slim chance that Kreidler is the real deal. My point is more that having alternatives ( Plans B, C, etc.) is smart. Others have pointed to trade options, specifically for players shunted aside by a newly acquired SS, or with a team that has real depth at the position. I am assuming that could function as a Plan B or C, after testing the waters for Correa and others. I suspect Story is going to get at least 8 guaranteed and/or opt outs after 1 or 2 seasons (if he has to settle for 4 or 5 years). I kind of doubt the market completely sours on him after one average season, but who knows. Seager is still in the playoffs and might elevate himself above Story. Correa is in the playoffs and might further the gap between himself and the others that it affects the others. The one thing that sticks out to me about his 2021 season vs other seasons is that his BABIP was merely around league average whereas he is clearly above that in his previous seasons. This was something that occurred throughout 2021. Now, maybe the season was an anomaly, or maybe there's something else in the scouting that suggests there might be some Troy Tulowitzki about to happen decline about to happen. Although in fairness to Story, he has been more durable than Tulowitzki, and injuries kind of brought Tulowitzki's demise. All that said, yes, the Tigers need to address SS and need to have several avenues to pursue. Maybe Story is indeed the best available fit. Maybe Correa and Seager resign and the Yankees go after Story and the Tigers are left going after the others (and we should probably pray that Baez long term isn't one of them). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 I think any of the top SS are going to want long term deals. That's why I would prefer a guy like Simmons for a year or two before signing Story or Semien to long term deals. It isn't a given that Kreidler is going to be a MLB player but he's shown enough promise that I would like to see more before signing anyone not named Correa to a long term deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Archie said: I think any of the top SS are going to want long term deals. That's why I would prefer a guy like Simmons for a year or two before signing Story or Semien to long term deals. It isn't a given that Kreidler is going to be a MLB player but he's shown enough promise that I would like to see more before signing anyone not named Correa to a long term deal. I'm not sure Semien gets a long term deal. If he gets one, it better not be with the Tigers. I think Correa and Seager get career ending contracts. Story probably does as well. And by career ending, I'm talking through age 36/37. They may have a handful of seasons afterwards, but certainly these contracts will use up the rest of their prime and go into the downsides of their career curves. Semien, Baez, and Taylor are going to be interesting cases. Three or four year deals? I guess that gets Taylor to 35, so maybe he is kind of in the previous paragraph, but he's already 31 and hasn't really established himself as an everyday SS. Looking at Baez again, and his offense might look better than I think his reputation suggests, but that probably depends upon how one weighs OBP. Simmons, Gavlis, and Iglesias (I guess we can toss the last two into the conversation) are going to be year-to-year, maybe a year with an option of some sort. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted October 10, 2021 Author Share Posted October 10, 2021 Semien is the #1 guy they should target. They can offer 5/125 and SS to him, and maybe that's important to him. In 2019 and 2021, he player literally every game and put up 2 MVP caliber seasons. He is a bad man in the good way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said: Semien is the #1 guy they should target. They can offer 5/125 and SS to him, and maybe that's important to him. In 2019 and 2021, he player literally every game and put up 2 MVP caliber seasons. He is a bad man in the good way. I like Semien, and you might be right about him wanting to play short again. I'm really not sold on Correa, he has only stayed healthy for two full seasons and he's part of the crew that exposed Hinch's leadership weakness in Houston. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 4 hours ago, Jim Cowan said: I like Semien, and you might be right about him wanting to play short again. I'm really not sold on Correa, he has only stayed healthy for two full seasons and he's part of the crew that exposed Hinch's leadership weakness in Houston. I like it. Not sold on Correa for health reason. But you are sold on the 30 year year old who wasn't much until his 28 year old season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 3 hours ago, KL2 said: I like it. Not sold on Correa for health reason. But you are sold on the 30 year year old who wasn't much until his 28 year old season. Yes, exactly. He seems to have figured things out now with 2 monster years out of the past 3, his teammates love him and the only worry is a defensive dropoff in 2 or 3 years that takes him off shortstop, him being 31 as of a couple of days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Projected arbitration amounts from mlbtraderumors: Tigers (13) Michael Fulmer – $5.1MM Matthew Boyd – $7.3MM Drew Hutchison – $900K Ian Krol – $900K Joe Jimenez – $1.8MM Jeimer Candelario – $5.9MM Niko Goodrum – $2.9MM Jose Cisnero – $1.9MM Victor Reyes – $1.3MM Grayson Greiner – $800K Spencer Turnbull – $1.8MM Dustin Garneau – $1.6MM Harold Castro – $1.5MM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 hard no on Boyd, Joe and Niko. Krol, Hutchinson and one of Greiner or Garneau may lose 40 man spot regardless of $ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Yeah I don't think I'm paying Boyd $7 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 35 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said: hard no on Boyd, Joe and Niko. Krol, Hutchinson and one of Greiner or Garneau may lose 40 man spot regardless of $ purely from a cost perspective, Niko's is the worst number. I wouldn't mind him on the roster as a backup at <<300PA or so, but that number is too big for a part timer and I don't want to see him get >400 PA! Jimenez I can go either way. We don't see his side work so I'd be willing to be persuaded the staff still sees something there that is worth a $2M bet even if you can't see paying him based on what he has done between the lines. All the other marginal guys there are cheap enough the money is not a factor. I have a feeling Boyd will settle with the Tigers before arbitration. Maybe Fulmer also. I don't have a problem with Hutchison. He got blown up in his first appearance but did OK after that. Again, they may or may not want him but $900K won't be the reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Jeimer deserves to get paid. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 3 hours ago, chasfh said: Jeimer deserves to get paid. He has two arbitration seasons left which get him through age 29. Is it foolish to offer him a 5 or 6 year deal this off-season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 25 minutes ago, casimir said: He has two arbitration seasons left which get him through age 29. Is it foolish to offer him a 5 or 6 year deal this off-season? I'm still not absolutely, totally sold on Jeimer. If he's doing well by the ASB next year I'd be ready to make the commitment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Save for a terrible stretch in June where he also spent a week on the bereavement list(I'm gonna assume that isnt a coincidence and pretend that something else was on his mind which explains the struggles) he's been really good his last 200 games. I like to think that he will continue to be a low .800s OPS guy with solid defense for the next 3-5 years so Id be comfortable giving him something like 4/60 or 5/75. If he continues to play the next 2 seasons like he has in the last 200 games he willl certainly be able to get more than 15m a year on the open market but getting that long term security now may be worth it to him to potentially leave some money on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 50 minutes ago, casimir said: He has two arbitration seasons left which get him through age 29. Is it foolish to offer him a 5 or 6 year deal this off-season? All depends on bad we want to lock him up through age 32. I don’t know how well he’s gonna age, given how immobile he is right how at 27. I might give him three years with team options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 1 hour ago, casimir said: He has two arbitration seasons left which get him through age 29. Is it foolish to offer him a 5 or 6 year deal this off-season? yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 $5 million seems like a lot for fullmer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, buddha said: $5 million seems like a lot for fullmer. I agree with that but he's been around a while now so I don't know how playing time figures in to the arb amount. I think $5.9M payday is fair for Candy. I think Schoop is at $7.5M and Grossman is at $5M so its puts him in their range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 39 minutes ago, buddha said: yes. Ima consider the source of this answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 hour ago, buddha said: $5 million seems like a lot for fullmer. not if you end up moving him back the rotation, which they should be thinking about if they aren't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: not if you end up moving him back the rotation, which they should be thinking about if they aren't. he'll just get hurt again. why pay an average reliever that kind of money? seems excessive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 12 hours ago, RandyMarsh said: Save for a terrible stretch in June where he also spent a week on the bereavement list(I'm gonna assume that isnt a coincidence and pretend that something else was on his mind which explains the struggles) he's been really good his last 200 games. I like to think that he will continue to be a low .800s OPS guy with solid defense for the next 3-5 years so Id be comfortable giving him something like 4/60 or 5/75. If he continues to play the next 2 seasons like he has in the last 200 games he willl certainly be able to get more than 15m a year on the open market but getting that long term security now may be worth it to him to potentially leave some money on the table. I agree about tossing out the stats around his bereavement time. $15M per is kind of what popped into my head. I don't know if that's fair or not. 12 hours ago, chasfh said: All depends on bad we want to lock him up through age 32. I don’t know how well he’s gonna age, given how immobile he is right how at 27. I might give him three years with team options. That's a fair point about his mobility. Team option or maybe a vesting option as protection on the back side of the contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 17 hours ago, casimir said: He has two arbitration seasons left which get him through age 29. Is it foolish to offer him a 5 or 6 year deal this off-season? Yes. Let him get his two Arb seasons. And, reassess mid-2023 what we should do. Is Paredes starting to crush it and slots into 3B? Or providing same ratio stats and fielding as Jeimer? Is Workman at AAA and moved over to 3B because of, whatever, ... and knocking at MLB with outstanding offensive numbers and excellent fielding? Is Colten Keith right behind him at AA, same production? Absolutely foolish to go past his arb years right now. He's a decent guy, I like him, at 3-4 WAR per year for another couple years, but... Mid-season 2023... I reassess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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