2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[Archie]

A trade is a good possibility but who would the Tigers put on the block?  Most of the players anyone would want are the ones that Tigers can't afford to lose.  I don't think there would be a big return for Goodrum or either Castro.  I think one of their best bargaining chips would be Grossman.  Currently they are looking pretty good with OF so he might bring the best return.  I would hate to see them give up Kreidler or another prospect that has been performing well.

[SoCalTiger]

DeJong is making 4.3 mil per year to ride the bench so he should come reasonable in trade.

[Edman85]

DeJong would cost a low A reliever at most. His contract and status make his trade value minimal.

None of the Goodrum/Castro/Castro triumvirate has trade value. Goodrum is a likely non-tender. Harold has none. Willi may have some, but you don't sell low on him until you have to.

[RatkoVarda]

I do not think DeJong would beat 2/$17M as a free agent, but that is what he is owed. so the player cost would be nominal (maybe more than Bryan Garcia but much more than Drew Carlton)

Paul DeJong ss
6 years/$26M (2018-23), plus 2024-25 options

• 6 years/$26M (2018-23), plus 2024-25 club options
  • signed extension with St. Louis 3/5/18
  • $1M signing bonus
  • 18:$1M, 19:$1.5M, 20:$1.5M, 21:$4M, 22:$6M, 23:$9M, 24:$12.5M club option ($2M buyout), 25:$15M club option ($1M buyout)
  • at signing, largest-ever contract for a player with less than one year of Major League service time

[Tiger337]

DeJong is interesting.  He can field and is not necessarily a poor hitter.  He has power and prior to this year he was not a black hole for getting on base.  If they can't get one of the good free agent shortstops, he would be a decent trade option.  

[RandyMarsh]

The optimist in me expects us to sign one of the marquee guys but the realist in me thinks that the more likely scenario is the Dejong or somebody like that scenario that you guys are talking about.

Id be fine with that so long as we reallocate the money that would've been spent on the SS to other areas of the team. 

I still think we need an impact bat or two, unless Tork comes out of the gate hitting at an All Star level they won't have a single bat on the entire team that is a truly impact one.  

Its hard to score runs consistently when your best bat in the entire lineup is Candy who is merely an .800 OPS guy with moderate HR power.  Hell most playoff teams have atleast 5 or 6 guys in their lineup better than that and as is he would be our best. Not good. 

[SoCalTiger]

1 minute ago, RandyMarsh said:

The optimist in me expects us to sign one of the marquee guys but the realist in me thinks that the more likely scenario is the Dejong or somebody like that scenario that you guys are talking about.

Id be fine with that so long as we reallocate the money that would've been spent on the SS to other areas of the team. 

I still think we need an impact bat or two, unless Tork comes out of the gate hitting at an All Star level they won't have a single bat on the entire team that is a truly impact one.  

Its hard to score runs consistently when your best bat in the entire lineup is Candy who is merely an .800 OPS guy with moderate HR power.  Hell most playoff teams have atleast 5 or 6 guys in their lineup better than that and as is he would be our best. Not good. 

I agree we should not sleep on the bat. My off season would be something like the following :

Paul DeJong - SS

Barnhart - Catcher if the reds don't sign him. Maybe Perez from Cleveland if they don't though less interesting.

Mark Canha - 3 to 4 years. Gets on base. Underrated ala Grossman . Hedges against Badoo and a slow start for Greene and can play first base if Tork starts later.

Max Scherzer or Jon Gray as second choice 

  Alex Cobb or similar level starter

[SeattleMike]

21 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

The optimist in me expects us to sign one of the marquee guys but the realist in me thinks that the more likely scenario is the Dejong or somebody like that scenario that you guys are talking about.

Id be fine with that so long as we reallocate the money that would've been spent on the SS to other areas of the team. 

I still think we need an impact bat or two, unless Tork comes out of the gate hitting at an All Star level they won't have a single bat on the entire team that is a truly impact one.  

Its hard to score runs consistently when your best bat in the entire lineup is Candy who is merely an .800 OPS guy with moderate HR power.  Hell most playoff teams have atleast 5 or 6 guys in their lineup better than that and as is he would be our best. Not good. 

Five or six better hitters (by OPS+) than Candy per playoff team is a bit of an exaggeration. But this year most playoff teams do have 3-4 hitters better than Candy. The Yankees and Brewers are exceptions. Each only had one hitter better than Jeimer. On the flip side, the Dodgers had 7 hitters with an OPS+ better than the Tigers' best hitter. That's how you win 105 games. 

[Edman85]

Question for those of you throwing out Goodrum, Harold, Willi, or Carlton out there as trade bait...

There is something that happens in mid February that opens up the free agency floodgates. Do you know what it is? My hint: look at transaction logs around that time the last few years.

Once you see what that is, you will see why those guys likely have next to no if not negative trade value right now 

[gehringer_2]

56 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Question for those of you throwing out Goodrum, Harold, Willi, or Carlton out there as trade bait...

those three as trade bait? Jim Schmakel need another bucket or two of batting practice balls?

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

Question for those of you throwing out Goodrum, Harold, Willi, or Carlton out there as trade bait...

There is something that happens in mid February that opens up the free agency floodgates. Do you know what it is? My hint: look at transaction logs around that time the last few years.

Once you see what that is, you will see why those guys likely have next to no if not negative trade value right now 

Groundhog Day?  If they see their shadow, they have to be kept on the 40 for six more weeks?

[sabretooth]

18 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I also think Sabre discounting Greene is a mistake. We shouldn't rely on him for anything? Don't put anything on his shoulders? Wrong answer. Greene will have a big year for Detroit. A rookie year, with mistakes and dry spells and all...

But there is no reason whatsoever to invest in a FA OF'er this offseason.

And... I don't think everything gets done in one off-season anyways. So I don't see getting an OF'er this off-season, I don't see getting two high level SP's this year.

I DO see getting a high end RP this year. Probably one. And the best SS and best SP that Ilitch/ Avila are willing to buy. And a stopgap C. And some back-end 6th starter types on cheap deals. And that's it.

And I still expect 85-90 wins for this team.

Greene could provide a couple WAR improvement in the OF over 2021....I didn't highlight him, but I am not discounting what he could do either.

Even with Grossman, Baddoo, and Greene having fairly productive years, and Hill, Daz, and/or Reyes contributing off the bench, there is still a lack of pop in the OF. 

None of these guys are established ML power-hitters, Grossman's career year (and advanced age) notwithstanding. 

For goodness' sake, Grossman hit nearly as many HRs (23) in 2021 as he had hit in any of his previous 3 seasons combined....

...and Grossman nearly hit as many HR as the next 4 Tigers OFs combined. 

Finally, from May 8th - the end of the season, our strongest period, our OF produced under 200 RCs, whereas the average for playoff teams over that same period was nearly 250, with the lowest being more than 20 above the Tigers over that period.  That's a 25 - 60 RC deficit vs. the playoff comps over a whole season.  Grossman produced 94 RCs this year, there has got to be at least a 10 - 15 RC regression there....that puts the playoff comp deficit in OF hitting at about 35 - 75, worth at least a 3 - 5 win differential.

The above deficit in OF hitting is far more than you could hope to make up by adding Greene plus improvements from Baddoo, Hill, Daz, IMHO.  A quality hitting OFer and Greene could make up the difference, sharing some DH and 1B time as well.

[casimir]

I like the FA suggestions of Canha.  He gets on base and has some power, and he sounds versatile enough that, if he can be used in CF on occasion, he should be fine in a corner for Detroit.  Plus, if he can pick it at 1B, maybe that also helps the bench a bit without sacrificing too much offense if Torkelson can move across the diamond to give a day off to Candelario once in a while.

I like Grossman to repeat.  I know some are suspicious of his career highs, but I think a lot of his ratios line up to when he was a platoon player (which doesn’t always work out that way).

The problem with going after an OF is that the Tigers probably have room for only 4 unless they get the pitching staff down to 12.  I’m still not acclimated to 13 pitchers, but that’s the way MLB works these days.  So, Grossman and Canha, then two of Baddoo / Greene / Hill?  Maybe Greene starts out in AAA to work on CF and maybe cutting down on Ks?  It seems unlikely to go with 2 lefty bats in that instance, considering those 2 slots would need to play CF (not sure Canha would be up to CF in Detroit’s OF)

[RandyMarsh]

I personally want a power guy like an Adam Duvall, he played some center this year for the Braves so he's versatile enough to handle all 3 spots.

Yeah his obp sucks but you can basically pencil him in for 30 bombs if he plays regularly and I think that's what the Tigers need most, particularly since I expect them to lose Hasse's 25 due to him coming back to Earth. 

[Edman85]

The thing Duvall and Canha have that I like is that they are right-handed. It makes it easier to mix and match with Baddoo and Greene if it comes to that.

[casimir]

9 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I personally want a power guy like an Adam Duvall, he played some center this year for the Braves so he's versatile enough to handle all 3 spots.

Yeah his obp sucks but you can basically pencil him in for 30 bombs if he plays regularly and I think that's what the Tigers need most, particularly since I expect them to lose Hasse's 25 due to him coming back to Earth. 

What’s crazy about Duvall is that his first MLB experience in CF was at the age of 31 even though he’s had MLB OF time since he was 26.

[sabretooth]

2 hours ago, SeattleMike said:

Five or six better hitters (by OPS+) than Candy per playoff team is a bit of an exaggeration. But this year most playoff teams do have 3-4 hitters better than Candy. The Yankees and Brewers are exceptions. Each only had one hitter better than Jeimer. On the flip side, the Dodgers had 7 hitters with an OPS+ better than the Tigers' best hitter. That's how you win 105 games. 

Yes, getting to 90 wins would be possible with the Tigers expected 2022 hitting, but only with very good pitching, which we don't currently have, and won't have if we only add one quality SP. 

In a best-case scenario for the offense, the Tigers could add 70 RC to their lineup vs. 2021 with only one FA acquisition at SS:

- SS will be a big improvement over Goodrum/etc (who produced about 50 RCs combined....add 40 RC)

- Tork could replace Schoops 450 PAs and 60 RC at 1B, allowing Schoop to replace similar PAs at 2B and improve over the Castros and Isaac's exact same number of PAs and 50 RC (add 10 RC)

- Greene could replace Jones, Mazara, and some of Reyes (say 400 PAs) with 60 RC (add 20 RC vs. those guys over same playing time).   

Let's say that the pitching is not markedly improved....this is my current theory, if they only acquire one quality SP.   

This FA SP would replace the lost 2021 starts for Turnbull and Boyd and maybe adding a little bit, and improvements from Mize/Manning/Skubal being roughly cancelled out from expected regressions from the other SPs, and the bullpen being basically left alone and performing about the same as it did from May 8th onward.

In the above scenario, a 70 RC improvement on offense would equate to about a 7 - 8 win improvement overall, enough to get them a winning record, but likely 5+ games short of making the playoffs.

They still need to add a second good SP.

I also wouldn't count on both Tork and Greene having nice 400+ PA takeoffs....I think we need to add a cheap OFer with some pop.

The above is based on the premise that in 2022 the goal is to make the playoffs after 5 years of basically intentional losing.

Edited October 15, 2021 by sabretooth

[RandyMarsh]

8 minutes ago, casimir said:

What’s crazy about Duvall is that his first MLB experience in CF was at the age of 31 even though he’s had MLB OF time since he was 26.

Duvall isn't alone in this, scouring the box scores throughout the league I noticed quite a few guys playing center that I wouldn't have expected.

My hypothesis to this is that teams are realizing that teams are realizing with more HRs and less gappers its not as important to have a good defender out there.  Either the ball is hit over the fence, its hit so hard only the elite can get to it or it's popped up. That and with the advanced batted ball data you can position guys where they don't have to cover as much ground. 

Edited October 15, 2021 by RandyMarsh

[sabretooth]

36 minutes ago, casimir said:

I like the FA suggestions of Canha.  He gets on base and has some power, and he sounds versatile enough that, if he can be used in CF on occasion, he should be fine in a corner for Detroit.  Plus, if he can pick it at 1B, maybe that also helps the bench a bit without sacrificing too much offense if Torkelson can move across the diamond to give a day off to Candelario once in a while.

I like Grossman to repeat.  I know some are suspicious of his career highs, but I think a lot of his ratios line up to when he was a platoon player (which doesn’t always work out that way).

The problem with going after an OF is that the Tigers probably have room for only 4 unless they get the pitching staff down to 12.  I’m still not acclimated to 13 pitchers, but that’s the way MLB works these days.  So, Grossman and Canha, then two of Baddoo / Greene / Hill?  Maybe Greene starts out in AAA to work on CF and maybe cutting down on Ks?  It seems unlikely to go with 2 lefty bats in that instance, considering those 2 slots would need to play CF (not sure Canha would be up to CF in Detroit’s OF)

If they get a quality hitter, I don't think they are going to have any problem finding spaces to put guys.  Its not like Miggy will require 162 games at DH and 1B.  And Schoop has 2B wide open.  And none of the OF in their system right now require full-time play in the place of a good hitter. 

I am not sure that Canha is the player I want....his power/age is in question, and his glove along with Grossman's arm would weaken OF defense a little too much for my taste.  If he had 25+ HRs in him and a .450 SLG/.200 ISO, maybe.

Duvall, Pederson are a couple of guys who I think could be signed for Cron/Schoop money and who could add the offense that they need with a decent glove.

Edited October 15, 2021 by sabretooth

[Edman85]

By the way, the answer to my question earlier... here's a sample of some roster moves for free agents this past february:

2/16: Pirates signed Tyler Anderson. Placed Jose Soriano on the 60-day IL

2/16: Marlins signed Adam Duvall. Placed Jeff Brigham on the 60-day IL

2/16: Giants signed Jake McGee. Placed John Brebbia on the 60-day IL

2/16: Rays signed Rich Hill. Placed Colin Poche on the 60-day IL

2/17: Padres signed Mark Melancon. Placed Trey Wingenter on the 60-day IL

2/17: Mariners signed James Paxton. Placed Andres Munoz on the 60-day IL

2/17: Padres signed Keone Kela. Placed Mike Clevinger on the 60-day IL

2/18: Dodgers signed Justin Turner. Placed Caleb Ferguson on the 60-day IL

2/19: Mets signed Taijuan Walker. Placed Noah Syndergaard on the 60-day IL

2/22: Yankees signed Brett Gardner. Placed Luis Severino on the 60-day IL

2/22: Rays signed Chaz Roe. Placed Yonny Chirinos on the 60-day IL.

2/22: Rays signed Collin McHugh. Placed Oliver Drake on the 60-day IL.

.....

When spring training starts, teams can stash players on the 60-day IL. They have extra roster space. In this era of extending the roster and shuttling players back and forth, teams are maximizing their 40 man roster.

Back-end borderline 40 man roster guys don't really have much offseason value when 40-man roster spots are so precious that teams wait until February to make their free agent moves.

That is why if the Tigers trade for somebody like DeJong, it will likely be a reliever or two a ways off.

Edited October 15, 2021 by Edman85

[sabretooth]

3 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

I agree we should not sleep on the bat. My off season would be something like the following :

Paul DeJong - SS

Barnhart - Catcher if the reds don't sign him. Maybe Perez from Cleveland if they don't though less interesting.

Mark Canha - 3 to 4 years. Gets on base. Underrated ala Grossman . Hedges against Badoo and a slow start for Greene and can play first base if Tork starts later.

Max Scherzer or Jon Gray as second choice 

  Alex Cobb or similar level starter

DeJong, Barnhart, and Canha would not likely improve things vs. 2021. 

DeJong and/or Barnhart would be nice to get if they also picked up a great OFer.  DeJong would likely improve SS overall, and Barnhart would probably solidify the catcher position, but I am not sure that Canha would be a clear improvement over the other pieces they have in the OF already.  I am pretty sure that the team's offense would not improve with these three guys.

Given that Rogers isn't going to play in 2021, these guys would be improvements overall vs. the guys they currently have, but they would not improve the team vs. 2021 IMHO.

Scherzer would be great, though. 

If it's the hitters you mentioned and Gray or Cobb, I think their improvement as a team vs. 2021 would likely hinge entirely on Tork and Greene.

[sabretooth]

I am puzzled by the thought process that this team is just a nip here and tuck there away from playoff contention.  They overperformed in a number of areas to get to 77 wins, which was great and loads of fun to watch, but their win total was only a few games better than they were projected to do....if they had a winning season, that would have been like 2006 without the playoffs.

Even if you discount the first 33 games, they still needed a lot of pitching overperformance and several career years from journeymen like Grossman and Haase to make it to 77 wins.

They still need some major improvements to this roster.  More than the upcoming rookies are likely to provide. 

The value of this season IMHO was to demonstrate that they could get within spitting distance of a winning record without relying on tank-picks, and that AJ Hinch was a great hire.

[RandyMarsh]

3 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I am puzzled by the thought process that this team is just a nip here and tuck there away from playoff contention.  They overperformed in a number of areas to get to 77 wins, which was great and loads of fun to watch, but their win total was only a few games better than they were projected to do....if they had a winning season, that would have been like 2006 without the playoffs.

Even if you discount the first 33 games, they still needed a lot of pitching overperformance and several career years from journeymen like Grossman and Haase to make it to 77 wins.

They still need some major improvements to this roster.  More than the upcoming rookies are likely to provide. 

The value of this season IMHO was to demonstrate that they could get within spitting distance of a winning record without relying on tank-picks, and that AJ Hinch was a great hire.

After years of misery any a little success is going to bring optimism so that's part of it,  another part is every year there are teams that make the playoffs that nobody expects going in and it usually comes from teams around our win total. Finally its just hope that our young players and prospects can make progression or in the case of Tork/ Greene immediate impacts. 

Skubal posted a 4+ era, you're hoping he can bring that down to 3.5 or lower like he was expected to be. 

Manning was over 6, you're hoping that goes to 4ish

Mize you're hoping gives you 50 more innings. 

Rookies with the pedigree of Tork and Greene have made immediate impacts before and that's what you're hoping for here, two rookie of the year caliber seasons.

And finally you're hoping we get that premium SS to not only fill our biggest hole but make it a strength. 

Yes there is a lot of hope there but at the same time I think they are all realistic and that's why so many fans think we could contend for the playoffs next year. 

[RatkoVarda]

Canha saw the 2nd most pitches per at bat; Grossman was 6th; so those 2 guys would really work the pitch count up

[Tiger337]

48 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

After years of misery any a little success is going to bring optimism so that's part of it,  another part is every year there are teams that make the playoffs that nobody expects going in and it usually comes from teams around our win total. Finally its just hope that our young players and prospects can make progression or in the case of Tork/ Greene immediate impacts. 

 

which is one of the big reasons I think "tanking" for several years is a bad strategy.