2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[RatkoVarda]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Sure, this works fine for us, but I'm pretty sure JV can do better than $20MM guaranteed over two years.

maybe he can, but it is actually one year for 20M, he could sign with anyone for 2023 if they don't pick up the options

generally, I would think there is a number where JV is getting a good enough guarantee that overlaps with the risk the Tigers would want to take

[chasfh]

26 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

maybe he can, but it is actually one year for 20M, he could sign with anyone for 2023 if they don't pick up the options

generally, I would think there is a number where JV is getting a good enough guarantee that overlaps with the risk the Tigers would want to take

Like I say, sounds great for us, but he’ll be able to do better than $20 million guaranteed. 

[RandyMarsh]

Im almost certain Heyman works with the agents so who knows if there is any truth to this or just him trying to drive the market up but if there is this looks like one more big market team to have to deal with for one of the SSs.

[RandyMarsh]

Kevin Goldstein had a chat on fangraphs and somebody asked him about Correa and he said from what he hears the Yankees and Tigers are the favorites. 

For those that don't know Goldstein, he was high up in the Astros organization up until a couple years ago and I believe he was actually one of their top scouts when Correa was drafted so he may have some inside info.

Edited October 8, 2021 by RandyMarsh

[chasfh]

37 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Kevin Goldstein had a chat on fangraphs and somebody asked him about Correa and he said from what he hears the Yankees and Tigers are the favorites. 

For those that don't know Goldstein, he was high up in the Astros organization up until a couple years ago and I believe he was actually one of their top scouts when Correa was drafted so he may have some inside info.

I know Kevin Goldstein. I worked with his wife Margaret at a website downtown in the early 2000s. He came by to visit her once, I happened by her cube, and she introduced me. I told him I was a huge Tigers fan and had read his stuff on BP. He seemed generally unimpressed. That was my encounter with Kevin Goldstein.

Edited October 9, 2021 by chasfh

[RandyMarsh]

9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I know Kevin Goldstein. I worked with his wife Margaret at a website downtown in the early 2000s. He came by to visit her once, I happened by her cube, and she introduced me. I told him I was a huge Tigers fan and had read his stuff on BP. He seemed generally unimpressed. That was my encounter with Kevin Goldstein.

Lol I only "know" him from Twitter, I first signed up there in 2010 and he was one of my first debates there. At the time he was still working for BP, he correctly said that he didnt see much in Jacob Turner. The homer in me argued sighting minor league stats, as usual I was wrong. 

[Tiger337]

30 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Lol I only "know" him from Twitter, I first signed up there in 2010 and he was one of my first debates there. At the time he was still working for BP, he correctly said that he didnt see much in Jacob Turner. The homer in me argued sighting minor league stats, as usual I was wrong. 

I remember when many Tigers fan were saying that Turner was untouchable and they would be pissed if the Tigers traded him.  

[chasfh]

14 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I remember when many Tigers fan were saying that Turner was untouchable and they would be pissed if the Tigers traded him.  

He was a 9th overall pick, so we had investment in him.

[Edman85]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I know Kevin Goldstein. I worked with his wife Margaret at a website downtown in the early 2000s. He came by to visit her once, I happened by her cube, and she introduced me. I told him I was a huge Tigers fan and had read his stuff on BP. He seemed generally unimpressed. That was my encounter with Kevin Goldstein.

This jives with some things I've heard about his personality. The podcast/twitter persona are divergent from his real life personality.

[RandyMarsh]

I have never met him in person at all but after the debate I talked about above he started "following me" and anytime I would post pics of my dog he would usually like it or comment on it.

I always thought that was cool since I was this completely nobody and at first he was writing for a national publication and then was on a big league team. 

Edited October 9, 2021 by RandyMarsh

[Motor City Sonics]

Looking at the fielding bible's website at Defensive Runs Saved at SS

Niko Goodrum   negative 6

Willi Castro  negative 2

Zack Short negative 1

Isaac Paredes negative 1

Not great Bob.  

 

 

Available FA shortstops

Carlos Correa  +20

Andrelton Simmons +15

Trevor Story +9

Javy Baez +3

Marcus Semien +1   (He's +11 as a 2B)

Corey Seager - Even

Freddy Galvis  negative 4

Are you ready for this?

Jose Iglesias   negative 22  (the next closest is negative 13)  What the hell happened?  

 

Tigers as a team negative 35,  26th in baseball.    Fix that and they have a winning record.  

[Archie]

Simmons struggled at the plate this year although he never has been a great hitter.  If they can't get Correa maybe they get a guy like Simmons that's big improvement over what they have but not an All Star. 

[chasfh]

I wonder how much of the defensive woes could be solved by better coaching and drills, versus how much is innate talent and simply cannot be significantly improved upon.

[mtutiger]

2 hours ago, Archie said:

Simmons struggled at the plate this year although he never has been a great hitter.  If they can't get Correa maybe they get a guy like Simmons that's big improvement over what they have but not an All Star. 

Simmons would be OK, but ideally they'd find another bat if they go with someone like him. Maybe an OF bat

[1984Echoes]

I'm in a "Correa or Bust" mood all of a sudden.

[casimir]

4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm in a "Correa or Bust" mood all of a sudden.

It'd be interesting to know the psychology on all sides about a Correa & Hinch reunion.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I wonder how much of the defensive woes could be solved by better coaching and drills, versus how much is innate talent and simply cannot be significantly improved upon.

IDK, Santiago purportedly works with these guys tirelessly. In Willi's case I tend to see him as having poor instincts - he doesn't make plays because he doesn't anticipate them and so is late, and he just doesn't have a quick upper body on the DP turn. I haven't paid as much attention to Niko this season - I'm a little surprised he is that low. He does have somewhat stiff hands - you see him sometimes get to a play but then not be able to complete the catch. Short is the best fielder of the group and it's not close,  but he's a little unreliable - I would guess it's just errors/misplays that hold back his numbers. I wouldn't think Paredes has enough reps for defensive numbers to mean anything. By the eye test he's looked at least adequate at 2b and 3b.

I wish we had had a chance to see Kreidler play. I know the team doesn't need to see him in Det to make a judgment on his fielding but would have been more fun if they had giving us arm chair folks some more off season fodder...

[Dan Gilmore]

Leaving Correa aside for the moment for various reasons, what is “or bust”? Looking at the defensive ratings, ages and guessing as to dollars/length of contract, would Story having an off year compared to past performance be a case buying lower (not low). I am aware of Coors effect concerns. He’s young enough that I think he is less likely to decline soon. What are the numbers to get him likely to be?

Most of the other top names seem flawed for various reasons. Story might not produce great O numbers at Comerica, but good ones coupled with good D sounds okay. And if he signs for a lot less than Correa, put that $ on a good SP. SS has been such a hole. 
 

So, 4/90 for Story? Would that be both a reasonable guess and a good value, or is it way off? I could see the Tigers making serious overtures to Correa, but not sticking around if the numbers get too high/long. And being ready with a plan B.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Leaving Correa aside for the moment for various reasons, what is “or bust”? Looking at the defensive ratings, ages and guessing as to dollars/length of contract, would Story having an off year compared to past performance be a case buying lower (not low). I am aware of Coors effect concerns. He’s young enough that I think he is less likely to decline soon. What are the numbers to get him likely to be?

Most of the other top names seem flawed for various reasons. Story might not produce great O numbers at Comerica, but good ones coupled with good D sounds okay. And if he signs for a lot less than Correa, put that $ on a good SP. SS has been such a hole. 
 

So, 4/90 for Story? Would that be both a reasonable guess and a good value, or is it way off? I could see the Tigers making serious overtures to Correa, but not sticking around if the numbers get too high/long. And being ready with a plan B.

I would be fine with Seager or Story.... 9r even Semien if the contract isn't too long.

The reality is that they need a Plan B. Even if they go hard at Correa, there's no guarantee they reel him in.

[SoCalTiger]

For some meaningless reason Trevor Story keeps popping in my head as signing with us for about 5 years 130. 
 

 

[casimir]

3 hours ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Leaving Correa aside for the moment for various reasons, what is “or bust”? Looking at the defensive ratings, ages and guessing as to dollars/length of contract, would Story having an off year compared to past performance be a case buying lower (not low). I am aware of Coors effect concerns. He’s young enough that I think he is less likely to decline soon. What are the numbers to get him likely to be?

Most of the other top names seem flawed for various reasons. Story might not produce great O numbers at Comerica, but good ones coupled with good D sounds okay. And if he signs for a lot less than Correa, put that $ on a good SP. SS has been such a hole. 
 

So, 4/90 for Story? Would that be both a reasonable guess and a good value, or is it way off? I could see the Tigers making serious overtures to Correa, but not sticking around if the numbers get too high/long. And being ready with a plan B.

I would think Story is looking for his big contract this off-season.  I don’t think 4 years is what he is looking to get.  

He will be 29 on Opening Day.  Unless he signs a really short term deal to try to show last season was a fluke and still hit free agency within the general prime season window of around 27 to 31, I think he looks at this off-season as his best shot at maximum contract leverage.

Or, he could sign a longer term deal with opt outs after a couple of years.  Didn’t Castellanos sign a 3 year deal with opt outs after the 1st and 2nd year?  A 3 year deal isn’t long term, so I guess it’s not a perfect comparison.

[Dan Gilmore]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

I would think Story is looking for his big contract this off-season.  I don’t think 4 years is what he is looking to get.  

He will be 29 on Opening Day.  Unless he signs a really short term deal to try to show last season was a fluke and still hit free agency within the general prime season window of around 27 to 31, I think he looks at this off-season as his best shot at maximum contract leverage.

Or, he could sign a longer term deal with opt outs after a couple of years.  Didn’t Castellanos sign a 3 year deal with opt outs after the 1st and 2nd year?  A 3 year deal isn’t long term, so I guess it’s not a perfect comparison.

Fair enough, what about 5/125? Is that long term enough? I don’t think Story has the value to expect much more than that, but admit I am not very knowledgeable.  A shorter period with opts outs would be good for the Tigers, including the slim chance that Kreidler is the real deal.

My point is more that having alternatives ( Plans B, C, etc.) is smart. 
 

Others have pointed to trade options, specifically for players shunted aside by a newly acquired SS, or with a team that has real depth at the position. I am assuming that could function as a Plan B or C, after testing the waters for Correa and others.

[1984Echoes]

6 hours ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Leaving Correa aside for the moment for various reasons, what is “or bust”? ...

It's not a serious "or bust."

More like a conversational piece.

I could probably say I'm more "hell bent for Correa" than anything else. I'd like the Tigers to make a "full-court press" for him...

To use a couple metaphors...

But yeah... obviously we'll need to have a plan B, C, etc. since every other team (read: Yankees, et al...) will also be doing the full court press thing...

Until we actually lose out on Correa though... I'm "Correa or Bust!"

If/ when we lose out on Correa, I like Story/ Semien on shorter term contracts, or even hunting the Yanks highest level SS prospect (their #3 prospect, in AAA and had a nice year.. Oswald Peraza) if they are the ones who sign Correa. Those are my Plans B, C & D.

[1984Echoes]

PS: Peraza 2021:

A+/ AA/ AAA - .297 BA, .834 OPS (18 HR's), 38 SB's, 10 CS's, 111-37 K-BB ratio in 511 PA's (could be better, but not terrible).

There could be a competition between Peraza and Kreidler with the loser going either to the bench, or AAA.

 

[1984Echoes]

Anthony Volpe is their better (#1 prospect) SS prospect but he's at least a couple years away and I don't think there's any chance we can wrangle him away from the Yankees.