sagnam Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: Wrong on both counts. The Cowboys drafted both Aikman and Walsh in the 1st round because Walsh was a vastly underdrafted QB prospect (they thought). NOT because they thought Aikman was terrible. And Walsh had proven NOTHING when they traded him for two 1sts and a 3rd. How about when the Redskins drafted RGIII in the 1st, and Kirk Cousins in the 4th, of the same draft... how did that work out for them? If you want to go ahead and draft QB's like the Cleveland Browns did the past 10 years, go for it. But I prefer the Cowboys or Packers models... I appreciate this post as it proves my point. Thank you. 1989 draft and 1st and 4th round picks are the examples. I don’t think anyone would mind if the Lions took a late round flyer on a QB in the same year they take one in the 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 hell, let's draft 3 qbs next year cause then we might be able to trade them down the road for more picks to take more qbs! the lions have too many holes to do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stanley70 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 (edited) What i think may happen is the Lions will have the first pick and Willis and whomever else rises will probably looked at as the fifth or sixth overall pick. So the Lions can overdraft a QB at one, or try to trade down, get some extra picks and still get they guy they want. It's either that or taking a QB at 26 that the entire league has passed on. I know Lamar Jackson and a few others have dropped and succeeded but the hit rate on QB's later in the first is lower obviously. Edited October 28, 2021 by Stanley70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 I would never draft Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander. I don't think he can make all the throws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 everybody remembers lamar jackson, nobody remembers all the qbs who got picked late in round one who failed. everyone remembers wilson and dak but nobody remembers all the guys in round 3 who never panned out and who nobody was ever going to trade you anything for. and those guys are a lot more numerous than dak or russell wilson. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 and if you take a qb in round 3 and then play him for a year to see if he's any good, and he's not, you have to start all over again and draft another one high in the draft the next year. or give baker mayfield $35 million a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 (edited) If we are taking a QB I either want it in the 1st round or 5th and later. This team has so little talent and they can't afford to burn a pick in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th rounds on a QB who isn't going to be the future of this franchise. As Buddha mentioned for every Russell Wilson there are 10 Davis Webbs and CJ Bethards, seemingly mediocre at best backup QBs. Barring a really late season/combine riser, I think we are either picking a QB at #1 or after a trade back of a few spots or we aren't picking one at all this year. Besides the Lions, there are too many QB hungry teams in this year's draft to be able to get one of Corrall, Pickett, or Willis anywhere past the top 15-20 IMO. Broncos, Falcons, Football Team, Panthers, Steelers all could take QBs this year. I'm moving towards the camp of either take one with the #1 pick or don't take one at all this year in the first 4 rounds. If Holmes and Co. believe that Corral, Pickett, or Willis look like they can be molded into solid NFL starters, then I'll trust their judgement taking one of them #1 overall. I think I'm out on Carson Strong and Sam Howell at this point, but maybe with a strong combine and good reporting about their football IQ and skills I could move back in. Maybe. Edited October 28, 2021 by Mr.TaterSalad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: If we are taking a QB I either want it in the 1st round or 5th and later. This team has so little talent and they can't afford to burn a pick in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th rounds on a QB who isn't going to be the future of this franchise. As Buddha mentioned for every Russell Wilson there are 10 Davis Webbs and CJ Bethards, seemingly mediocre at best backup QBs. Barring a really late season/combine riser, I think we are either picking a QB at #1 or after a trade back of a few spots or we aren't picking one at all this year. Besides the Lions, there are too many QB hungry teams in this year's draft to be able to get one of Corrall, Pickett, or Willis anywhere past the top 15-20 IMO. Broncos, Falcons, Football Team, Panthers, Steelers all could take QBs this year. I'm moving towards the camp of either take one with the #1 pick or don't take one at all this year in the first 4 rounds. If Holmes and Co. believe that Corral, Pickett, or Willis look like they can be molded into solid NFL starters, then I'll trust their judgement taking one of them #1 overall. I think I'm out on Carson Strong and Sam Howell at this point, but maybe with a strong combine and good reporting about their football IQ and skills I could move back in. Maybe. With so many QB-hungry teams, the Lions should be able to add 2 or even 3 extra draft picks to move down. That's what they need more than anything. Stockpile them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 qbs taken outside round 1: 2015: garrett grayson, sean mannion, bryce petty, brett hundley, trevor simien. 2016: paxton lynch, christian hackenberg, jacoby brissett, cody kessler, connor cook, dak prescott, cardale jones, nate sudfeld, kevin hogan, jake rudock, brandon allen, jeff driscoll, brandon doughty 2017: deshone kizer, davis webb, cj beatherd, josh dobbs, nathan peterman, brad kayaa, chad kelly 2018: mason rudolf, kyle lauletta, mike white, luke faulk, tanner lee, danny etling, alex mcgough, logan woodside. 2019: drew locke, will grier, ryan findley, jarrett stidtham, easton stick, clayton thorston, gardner minshew, trace mcsorley. how many of those guys are good nfl players? 1? 2 if you want to count minshew being ok for a few games in jacksonville? how many have been traded for multiple first round picks? or for anything of value? none. it is not a productive exercise to draft qbs outside of round 1, nor does it usually get you anything back in assets. qbs are extremely valuable. if the lions are going to find the qb of the future, the overwhelming evidence suggests they will need to do it in round 1. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 (edited) Quit LYING about what I posted Buddha. NOWHERE did I say draft a late round QB for a big return. SHOW ME where I said that. I said IF WILLIS FALLS TO OUR LATER 1st ROUND PICK AND OUR SCOUTS BELIEVE HE COULD TURN INTO A STAR THAN DRAFT HIM. You know, sort of like LAMAR JACKSON, or STEVE WALSH, for two examples. AND IF CJ STROUD FALLS TO OUR DRAFT POSITION IN THE 2023 DRAFT AND WE THINK HE IS A FRANCHISE QB THEN DRAFT HIM. As opposed to Buddha's list, QB's scouted and developed correctly (LOL at only 1 or 2... backups have worth in the NFL too, not just franchise QB's). And I think your statement to NOT draft a later round QB is asinine: 2019 Draft (drafted round-position): 2-42 Drew Lock (just a backup) 6-178 Gardner Minshew (a damn fine backup so far. Could turn into more than that?) (BUT BUDDHA is way TOO FREAKING TERRIFIED to draft a post 1st round QB... because...) 2018 Draft (drafted round-position): 1-32 Lamar Jackson (SUPERSTAR!!!) Would you trade a couple 1sts to get him on the Lions? Yeah, I thought so... 2016 Draft (drafted round-position): 4-35 Dak Prescott (EXCELLENT STARTER) (Buddha would NOT DRAFT Dak though... because...?) 2014 Draft (drafted round-position): 1-32 Teddy Bridgewater (a decent starter, but not for a playoff-level team?) 2-36 Derek Carr (same, a good starter, but not for a playoff-level team?) 2-62 Jimmy Garrapolo (excellent backup & sometimes starter.) 5-164 AJ McCarron (backup) 2012 Draft (drafted round-position): 3-75 Russell Wilson (EXCELLENT STARTER, Championship level QB... but... Buddha would NOT DRAFT Russell... because...?) 3-88 Nick Foles (Won a Super Bowl, and SB MVP?) 4-102 Kirk Cousins (took over for RGIII and became an excellent starter.. but not a SB winner...) 2011 Draft (drafted round-position): 2-35 Andy Dalton (a fine starter, but not a SB guy) 2-36 Kaepernick (OK starter for awhile...) 2008 Draft (drafted round-position): 1-18 Joe Flacco (EXCELLENT STARTER, Championship level QB... that FELL to the 18th pick.) 2005 Draft (drafted round-position): 1-24 Aaron Rodgers (SUPERSTAR!!!) Would a team have traded a couple 1sts for get him in 2006 or 2007? Yeah, I thought so... 6-213 Derek Anderson (NOT WORTH DRAFTING... RIGHT BUDDHA?) 7-230 Matt Cassel (NOT WORTH DRAFTING... RIGHT BUDDHA?) 7-250 Ryan Fitzpatrick (NOT WORTH DRAFTING... RIGHT BUDDHA?) Edited October 29, 2021 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagnam Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Everyone would select Dak with what we know now. That’s not how this works. And before we give the Cowboys too much credit, they didn’t even take him with their first 4th round pick! They almost didn’t even take him at all! ”After selecting Elliott early in the first, the Cowboys attempted to trade with multiple teams for another first round selection in order to draft quarterback Paxton Lynch.[76] They were unsuccessful in finding a trade and it wasn't until their second fourth round pick that they decided on a quarterback with Mississippi State's Dak Prescott being selected 135th overall.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagnam Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 (edited) Somehow you list the 5% of QBs that work out yet plan on hitting in consecutive years! Meanwhile for 34 games the team will be without an absolute superstar at another position of need. Let’s go with pass rusher as that’s the second most valuable position. If you are comfortable just assuming the QBs taken will be worth multiple 1sts then it seems safe to assume they will nail the alternative. Why pass on a perennial pro bowl, all pro, and sure fire hall of fame pass rusher for a backup QB? Edited October 29, 2021 by sagnam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Tony Romo wasn't even drafted and Prescott was a 4th round pick. Dallas has been lucky at finding the diamond in the ruff QBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 39 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Quit LYING about what I posted Buddha. NOWHERE did I say draft a late round QB for a big return. SHOW ME where I said that. I said IF WILLIS FALLS TO OUR LATER 1st ROUND PICK AND OUR SCOUTS BELIEVE HE COULD TURN INTO A STAR THAN DRAFT HIM. You know, sort of like LAMAR JACKSON, or STEVE WALSH, for two examples. AND IF CJ STROUD FALLS TO OUR DRAFT POSITION IN THE 2023 DRAFT AND WE THINK HE IS A FRANCHISE QB THEN DRAFT HIM. As opposed to Buddha's list, QB's scouted and developed correctly (LOL at only 1 or 2... backups have worth in the NFL too, not just franchise QB's). And I think your statement to NOT draft a later round QB is asinine: 2019 Draft (drafted round-position): 2-42 Drew Lock (just a backup) 6-178 Gardner Minshew (a damn fine backup so far. Could turn into more than that?) (BUT BUDDHA is way TOO FREAKING TERRIFIED to draft a post 1st round QB... because...) 2018 Draft (drafted round-position): 1-32 Lamar Jackson (SUPERSTAR!!!) Would you trade a couple 1sts to get him on the Lions? Yeah, I thought so... 2016 Draft (drafted round-position): 4-35 Dak Prescott (EXCELLENT STARTER) (Buddha would NOT DRAFT Dak though... because...?) 2014 Draft (drafted round-position): 1-32 Teddy Bridgewater (a decent starter, but not for a playoff-level team?) 2-36 Derek Carr (same, a good starter, but not for a playoff-level team?) 2-62 Jimmy Garrapolo (excellent backup & sometimes starter.) 5-164 AJ McCarron (backup) 2012 Draft (drafted round-position): 3-75 Russell Wilson (EXCELLENT STARTER, Championship level QB... but... Buddha would NOT DRAFT Russell... because...?) 3-88 Nick Foles (Won a Super Bowl, and SB MVP?) 4-102 Kirk Cousins (took over for RGIII and became an excellent starter.. but not a SB winner...) 2011 Draft (drafted round-position): 2-35 Andy Dalton (a fine starter, but not a SB guy) 2-36 Kaepernick (OK starter for awhile...) 2008 Draft (drafted round-position): 1-18 Joe Flacco (EXCELLENT STARTER, Championship level QB... that FELL to the 18th pick.) 2005 Draft (drafted round-position): 1-24 Aaron Rodgers (SUPERSTAR!!!) Would a team have traded a couple 1sts for get him in 2006 or 2007? Yeah, I thought so... 6-213 Derek Anderson (NOT WORTH DRAFTING... RIGHT BUDDHA?) 7-230 Matt Cassel (NOT WORTH DRAFTING... RIGHT BUDDHA?) 7-250 Ryan Fitzpatrick (NOT WORTH DRAFTING... RIGHT BUDDHA?) dude, really. wtf is wrong with you? getting past you attacking me for no fucking reason, nothing you posted refutes anything i said. there has been ONE qb drafted outside of round one in the last five years that has been any good. instead, you quote a bunch of first round picks and go back 15 years to cite a few examples of semi-successful players taken outside round one. yet, strangely enough, you never cite ALL THE PICKS IN THOSE YEARS THAT WERE ABSOLUTE FAILURES. i'm sure you'll be happy with jake rudock and jeff driscoll as lions' qbs moving forward. after all, we took them late in the draft. gtfo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYLion Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 (edited) 20 hours ago, buddha said: everybody remembers lamar jackson, nobody remembers all the qbs who got picked late in round one who failed. everyone remembers wilson and dak but nobody remembers all the guys in round 3 who never panned out and who nobody was ever going to trade you anything for. and those guys are a lot more numerous than dak or russell wilson. Taking a QB in the mid to late rounds is pretty much a wasted pick. The hit rate on QBs that late is less than most other positions partly because they rarely get a chance to play. Either take a QB in the 1st or don't take one at all. Edited October 29, 2021 by NYLion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 29, 2021 Author Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 hour ago, NYLion said: Taking a QB in the mid to late rounds is pretty much a wasted pick. The hit rate on QBs that late is less than most other positions partly because they rarely get a chance to play. Either take a QB in the 1st or don't take one at all. I agree that you can't afford to burn a 2nd/3rd/4th on taking a QB, so it's either 1st or wait until the 5th or later. And given where we are picking, assuming we don't trade back, we're either taking one of Corral/Pickett/Willis at #1 or we aren't getting them at all. If we trade up from our second 1st rounder we could possibly get one of, but I think by the time pick #15 or so roles around all three will be gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagnam Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 I think you take a mid to late round QB if you have a hunch. You have to be comfortable knowing you will miss on that hunch WAY more often than you hit and you can't take that risk very often, but if you can get Wilson or Prescott then it's clearly the correct decision. They are two of the very best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYLion Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 47 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I agree that you can't afford to burn a 2nd/3rd/4th on taking a QB, so it's either 1st or wait until the 5th or later. And given where we are picking, assuming we don't trade back, we're either taking one of Corral/Pickett/Willis at #1 or we aren't getting them at all. If we trade up from our second 1st rounder we could possibly get one of, but I think by the time pick #15 or so roles around all three will be gone. They could still probably get a shot at one of them in the late 1st. This is a unique season in which there are any elite level QBs that are locks to go in the top 10 and there aren't many QB needy teams after so many were taken last draft. Who is even a big threat to take a QB before the Rams pick? Washington, Denver and Atlanta? And I doubt that all 3 take a QB so I think there's a real shot at one of those guys with the Rams pick, preferably one of Willis or Corral. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagnam Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 New Orleans, Houston, Miami, Indy, Steelers, Philly, and Carolina. Giants, maybe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 there will still be multiple qbs taken high. it happens every year. its hard to generalize since all of these guys are individuals with their own developmental time line, but the evidence really suggests its 1st round or bust for qbs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 another thing is the organization around these guys. look at this last year. jacksonville, jets, bears take qbs with loads of talent and they all look god awful. mac jones has looked decent. why? cause he has a great organization around him. i bet fields wouldnt be the worst qb in football if he were in new england, and i bet mac jones would if he were in chicago. (also, mac jones has a good oline, which is another reason to draft a qb after you have the line somewhat in place) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYLion Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 28 minutes ago, sagnam said: New Orleans, Houston, Miami, Indy, Steelers, Philly, and Carolina. Giants, maybe. I doubt Miami, Houston, Indy or Carolina especially if the Watson trade to Miami happens. Indy and Carolina burned some prime assets to acquire their guys and Wentz is playing well for Indy so I doubt either will be in a market for a 1st round QB but who knows I guess. New Orleans yeah, I forgot about them but it also depends on how Winston does since they're contending team right now. Pittsburgh for sure. We'll see. Not many projections have more than 2 QBs going in the top 20 but of course that can change. If there is a run on QBs, oh well move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagnam Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 If a team is in on the Watson trade then they are open to drafting a QB if they think the one is there. Carolina and Miami (and Houston too) are in that boat. They are absolutely in the market if the right guy is there. Indy is not tied to Wentz unless he plays 75% this year, or 70% and they make the playoffs. That is not a foregone conclusion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYLion Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 (edited) 23 minutes ago, sagnam said: If a team is in on the Watson trade then they are open to drafting a QB if they think the one is there. Carolina and Miami (and Houston too) are in that boat. They are absolutely in the market if the right guy is there. Indy is not tied to Wentz unless he plays 75% this year, or 70% and they make the playoffs. That is not a foregone conclusion. Whoever makes the Watson trade is likely sending a high pedigree young QB the other way and, lets be honest, it appears to be Miami if it does happen (apparently Carolina dropped out) so if Houston takes Tua as a centerpiece, why would they draft another QB? If no Watson trade is made then, yeah, it will flood the QB market even more for the draft. Edited October 29, 2021 by NYLion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 29, 2021 Author Share Posted October 29, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, buddha said: (also, mac jones has a good oline, which is another reason to draft a qb after you have the line somewhat in place) Assuming we keep Decker together with Sewell I think the pieces are there for us to have a good o-line, making this upcoming draft a better time to pick one of the QBs, assuming our front office likes one of them. Our front offices track record of drafting or signing/trading for QBs is both up and down. I would say thanks to John Dorsey though, more up than down. I feel pretty comfortable with Dorsey's QB evaluation skills and hope he is close with Holmes and in his ear when it comes to drafting a QB. Brad Holmes Traded up for Jared Goff - Holmes was in large part responsible for the Rams trading future draft capital, including multiple 1sts, to move up and get Jared Goff. It may have gotten them to a Super Bowl, but in hindsight, it looks like it was more coaching from McVay, Todd Gurley, and the defense that did that was responsible for the Super Bowl run than Goff. I'd call this trade a waste for the Rams in the end, given the draft capital they gave up and the limited time Goff ended up spending with the Rams. Beyond Goff, Holmes has little track record with acquiring QBs for an organization, ours or LA. John Dorsey Scouted and was apart of drafting Aaron Rodgers - When John Dorsey returned to the Packers he came back as their Director of college scouting. As Director of College Scouting he was partly responsible for scouting and encouraging GM Ron Wolf to draft Aaron Rodgers, when they already had another HOF QB on the roster in Brett Farve. It was a big time gamble by Wolf, Dorsey, and co. and it paid off big time in the end. Traded for Alex Smith - Dorsey went and traded a 2nd round pick and another conditional pick to get the Chiefs Alex Smith when he was their GM. While Smith was an average to slightly above average starter for the Chiefs it is what Dorsey did next with him that was his best move. Drafted Patrick Mahomes - Dorsey did what he did in Green Bay which was draft another young, high ceiling prospect in Patrick Mahomes, when he had a starter already on the roster. Sitting Mahomes behind Smith seemingly gave the guy a full year to learn the playbook, adjust to the NFL game speed, and grow as a player. This move obviously paid off as it got the Chiefs a top 2-3 QB in the league. Great move again by Dorsey to take the gamble and win. Drafted Baker Mayfield - I liked Baker coming out of college and so did John Dorsey because he picked him when others around the league were clamoring for the Browns to take Darnold or Rosen. Baker is clearly better than Darnold and Rosen but I'm not sure what to make of the Browns under Baker Mayfield's tenure as QB. Are they and is he the team that was a game away from an AFC Championship last year or are they more the team of this season? Injuries have certainly hampered Cleveland this year, so it may not be fair to judge Baker when half his offensive line and offensive weapons are out injured. Edited October 29, 2021 by Mr.TaterSalad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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