2022 NFL Draft Thread

[Motor City Sonics]

41 minutes ago, buddha said:

they eat $20 million if they cut goff after next year, i dont think they do it.  they also have $20 million wrapped up in flowers too.  not to mention what vatai is making to play guard.  thanks quinn.

I never thought I would see a regime worse than Matt Millen's.    Seems like they blow him away. 

Goff will be here next year.  Nobody says he has to start.   If DC trades for or drafts a QB then I'd love to see the Lions sign Fitzmagic for a year.   Why not?      Or draft a QB with one of the 3rd/4th round supplemental pick they'll get.  If there is a guy there that's worth the risk, Dorsey is the guy to find him.    

[RandyMarsh]

5 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I never thought I would see a regime worse than Matt Millen's.    Seems like they blow him away. 

Goff will be here next year.  Nobody says he has to start.   If DC trades for or drafts a QB then I'd love to see the Lions sign Fitzmagic for a year.   Why not?      Or draft a QB with one of the 3rd/4th round supplemental pick they'll get.  If there is a guy there that's worth the risk, Dorsey is the guy to find him.    

I wouldn't be opposed to taking a flyer on a qb in the middle rounds. It's a risk but the reward is extremely high.  You may just get lucky and find the next Dak, Cousins or Wilson. 

[Motown Bombers]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

they eat $20 million if they cut goff after next year, i dont think they do it.  they also have $20 million wrapped up in flowers too.  not to mention what vatai is making to play guard.  thanks quinn.

The Lions gain $20 million in cap space if they cut Goff after next season. His dead cap is only $10 million. They would also save $4 million in cap space if they cut Vaitai. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I still like the idea of what Malik Willis could become,: our Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, or Lamar Jackson. He has all the physical tools of a modern NFL QB. He's got a cannon for an arm, can make all the throws, good enough size, athleticism for days, and mobility inside and out of the pocket to create plays and extend drives. He also seems to be a good kid without any of the Dwayne Haskins or Ryan Mallet type off the field or mental health issues. He seems like the type of player who would be receptive to NFL coaching, willing to listen and grow. The things he struggles with as far as some of his mechanics, decision making and willingness to gamble a little too much can be worked on and fixed.

Remember Josh Allen coming out of Wyoming. He was seen as a risky pick because of his decision making, bad habits and a completion % that was below 60% and he's turned around to be one of the leagues elite QBs. Willis has all the same physical tools Allen had with a big arm, mobility, and athleticism.

I'm still tempted to take Willis #1 overall and pass on Thibodeaux.

Edited October 27, 2021 by Mr.TaterSalad

[1984Echoes]

5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

...

I'm still tempted to take Willis #1 overall and pass on Thibodeaux.

Nope.

Thibodeaux.

Willis will fall to our second 1st round pick.

At the top of the 2nd: Best WR: Treylon Burks or Justyn Ross or Chris Olave (whoever falls...)

[Mr.TaterSalad]

No way does Willis get past the Broncos, Falcons, Football Team, Panthers, and Texans unless he absolutely bombs out the rest of the season and/or at the combine. It's probably too early to say this, but I think if we want Willis it's either take him #1 overall or trade back up into the top 10-11-12 to get him.

Edited October 27, 2021 by Mr.TaterSalad

[NYLion]

I just don't see a big risk in taking a QB with the late 1st especially in a draft like this where the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the draft could very well be sitting there at the Rams pick. Having a franchise QB is an absolute must if you want to compete with the big boys, the sooner you get one the better. 

If there's a guy they see with franchise upside (even if he's raw) sitting there they should take him because you won't get more value out of that pick than you would with a QB that pans out and the risk is far less late in the 1st. Not saying that they HAVE TO to take a QB but it should absolutely be a consideration.

MAybe they'll be really bad next season and be in position to take a perceived better QB in 2023 but there's no guarantee of that and really, if they're that bad again next season, it's probably time to move on from Campbell because there must be some significant progression next season or else, what's the point?

Edited October 27, 2021 by NYLion

[RandyMarsh]

Just now, NYLion said:

I just don't see a big risk in taking a QB with the late 1st especially in a draft like this where the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the draft could very well be sitting there at the Rams pick. Having a franchise QB is an absolute must if you want to compete with the big boys, the sooner you get one the better.

If there's a guy they see with franchise upside sitting there they should take him because you won't get more value out of that pick than you would with a QB that pans out and the risk is far less late in the 1st. Not saying that they HAVE TO to take a QB but it should absolutely be a consideration.

I'm definitely not opposed to that and you're right the upside is huge but the one big risk you run is barring a miracle come the 2023 draft when we have a top pick we end up passing on a superior QB cause we just drafted one the year before.  

[sagnam]

3 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'm definitely not opposed to that and you're right the upside is huge but the one big risk you run is barring a miracle come the 2023 draft when we have a top pick we end up passing on a superior QB cause we just drafted one the year before.  

Or we take the QB and trade the one drafted in the first round the year before for pennies on the dollar.  Throwing away 1st round draft picks is a sure fire way to stay terrible.

[NYLion]

12 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'm definitely not opposed to that and you're right the upside is huge but the one big risk you run is barring a miracle come the 2023 draft when we have a top pick we end up passing on a superior QB cause we just drafted one the year before.  

I expanded on that after you quoted my post. If they are so bad next season that they'll be in line for one of the top QBs, it might be time to move on from his regime. You can give them a mulligan for this season being a bottom 3-5 team in the league but another season like this should be unacceptable. There are no long term rebuilds in football and this one shouldn't be treated as such.

In any event, there are no guarantees with future events. Riding all their hopes on a future QB class and passing on a potential one that could be really good in the current class is a risky proposition. Say if somebody like Corral with high level skills but is raw is sitting there at 25 or so, you're getting a guy who is risky but has huge upside if he pans out. For a franchise that is starving for starpower/playmakers, some high risk/high reward should be considered especially since they went so conservative in the last draft building the trenches with "knee cap biters".

 

Edited October 27, 2021 by NYLion

[RandyMarsh]

2 minutes ago, NYLion said:

I expanded on that after you quoted my post. If they are so bad next season that they'll be in line for one of the top QBs, it might be time to move on from his regime. You can give them a mulligan for this season being a bottom 3-5 team in the league but another season like this should be unacceptable. There are no long term rebuilds in football and this one shouldn't be treated as such.

In any event, there are no guarantees with future events. Riding all their hopes on a future QB class and passing on a potential one that could be really good in the current class is a risky proposition. Say if somebody like Corral with high level skills but is raw is sitting there at 25 or so, you're getting a guy who is risky but has huge upside if he pans out. For a franchise that is starving for starpower/playmakers, some high risk/high reward should be considered especially since they went so conservative in the last draft building the trenches with "knee cap biters".

 

Next year will only be their second season of the rebuild, I think it's unrealistic to expect them to make any major strides by the 2nd year considering how bare the roster was to begin with and the fact we don''t have a good QB. I'm hoping next year we show progression from players that Holmes and company have drafted/acquired and win some more games but barring some  miracle turnaround from Goff(or great rookie year by QB if we draft one this season) I don't see how we finish any better than bottom 5.  

[1984Echoes]

18 minutes ago, sagnam said:

Or we take the QB and trade the one drafted in the first round the year before for pennies on the dollar.  Throwing away 1st round draft picks is a sure fire way to stay terrible.

Or the 2022 late 1st QB we drafted develops into a capable starting QB and instead of trading for "pennies on the dollar" we trade him for two 1sts and a 3rd.

Because teams are always looking for QB's, right? And it's not like what I suggested is unheard of or has never happened before.

If we draft Willis using our late 2022 1st and CJ Stroud using our high 2023 1st...

I'm not going to cry, or whinge about it. Let the better man win the starting spot. And the backup get traded for a king's ransom.

[NYLion]

2 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Next year will only be their second season of the rebuild, I think it's unrealistic to expect them to make any major strides by the 2nd year considering how bare the roster was to begin with and the fact we don''t have a good QB. I'm hoping next year we show progression from players that Holmes and company have drafted/acquired and win some more games but barring some  miracle turnaround from Goff(or great rookie year by QB if we draft one this season) I don't see how we finish any better than bottom 5.  

Perhaps but I don't think the regime should go into next assuming that they'll finish bottom 5 then draft their franchise QB. That's what I mean, there are too many variables that can happen in a year to change the course of things. Holmes and co. can't just assume that they are guaranteed to be in position to draft a franchise QB in 2023, that's fan talk really.

Also, Young and Stroud could disappoint, get injured etc. I remember back when they drafted Stafford, there was talk that they should take Curry because Bradford will be even better than Stafford and yes, Bradford was hyped to the moon back then and we saw what happened. I'm not saying that this is a Stafford situation, it was more about hitching your wagon to future events assuming that everything will go according to plan.

Point being that everything should be on the table in the 1st round including QB, they need playmakers especially at the QB position.

[sagnam]

16 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Or the 2022 late 1st QB we drafted develops into a capable starting QB and instead of trading for "pennies on the dollar" we trade him for two 1sts and a 3rd.

Because teams are always looking for QB's, right? And it's not like what I suggested is unheard of or has never happened before.

If we draft Willis using our late 2022 1st and CJ Stroud using our high 2023 1st...

I'm not going to cry, or whinge about it. Let the better man win the starting spot. And the backup get traded for a king's ransom.

Do you have an example of this working?  The closest I can think of is Brees and Rivers and Brees was a free agent.  It's a beautiful fantasy but in reality you end up with the Josh Rosen trade.  Sure Kyler Murray seems to be working out, but they could have Kyler Murray and Minkah Fitzpatrick instead.

Edited October 27, 2021 by sagnam

[buddha]

the last time the lions bottomed out they went from 0-16 to 2-14 to 6-10.  i suspect this is our equivalent of 0-16 and i think next year will be our 2-14 season.

too many misses from quinn and a roster full of ordinary players.  

as for a qb, you just cant miss if you take one in round one.  if they really think a pickett, or ridder or willis is worthy of a #1 pick, then by all means do it.  but as of right now, it doesnt seem like anyone thinks that way.

while we are early in the process, you usually start to hear a lot if hype by this point about top qb prospects being in the top pick conversations and youre just not hearing it this year.

[RandyMarsh]

The last time the Lions bottomed out they got fortunate with the ensuing drafts. While Stafford had question marks and some pundits and fans even wanted them to take Curry he was still a considered a premium talent and of course ended up being one. Then the following year arguably the best defensive player to come into the draft since Julius Peppers was there for us. 

Unfortunately it doesn't look like we are getting that lucky this time but who knows, maybe we get Thibs this year and next year one of the QBs breaks out in college and becomes can't miss and we end up with him too. 

[RandyMarsh]

McShay updated his big board. Has Thibs at one but has Willis all the way up 6. The next QB is Picket at like 25. 

[1984Echoes]

5 hours ago, sagnam said:

Do you have an example of this working?  The closest I can think of is Brees and Rivers and Brees was a free agent.  It's a beautiful fantasy but in reality you end up with the Josh Rosen trade.  Sure Kyler Murray seems to be working out, but they could have Kyler Murray and Minkah Fitzpatrick instead.

I don't think has happened more than once or twice...

The closest I can remember is when the Cowboys drafted both Troy Aikman (1-1) and Steve Walsh (supplemental 1-29) in 1989. They then traded Walsh to the 49'ers in late 1990 for their 1st and 3rds in 1991 and a conditional 2nd (turned into a 1st based on performance) in 1992. So two 1sts and a 3rd for Steve Walsh.

Edited October 27, 2021 by 1984Echoes

[1984Echoes]

5 hours ago, sagnam said:

... you end up with the Josh Rosen trade.  Sure Kyler Murray seems to be working out, but ...

Couple other points:

Josh Rosen is a shitty QB.

That tells me my scouts were way off base. Not that my GM has a problem trading a QB for a good return but, rather, we drafted the wrong QB. I'm not interested in drafting Rosen, nor do I hope that the Lions scouts advise drafting Rosen. I'm not recommending drafting the wrong QB. What I am recommending is drafting a falling QB that can vastly outperform his draft position.

Second, because the QB position is so fraught and unpredictable (especially coming out of college and how they will actually adapt to the NFL...), there is STILL nothing wrong with drafting both Willis and Stroud: (a) if in position to do so, and (b) if your scouts believe both will turn into franchise QB's.

If you're right, trade one for a big return. If injuries happen, still have a starter, and if your scouts mess up, yes, you have Josh Rosen, but again, that's a scouting/ drafting problem, not a value problem.

The other closest thing to the above is the Packers who, by various means ended up with high-demand backup QB's who they traded for more than their acquisition cost: Matt Hasselback, Aaron Brooks... and I thought there was a 3rd one...?

Fun fact: In the draft that the Lions selected Dan Orlovsky in the 5th round... in the 6th and 7th rounds of that draft, there were the following QB's selected: Matt Cassel, Ryan FitzPatrick and Derek Anderson.

[sagnam]

8 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Couple other points:

Josh Rosen is a shitty QB.

That tells me my scouts were way off base. Not that my GM has a problem trading a QB for a good return but, rather, we drafted the wrong QB. I'm not interested in drafting Rosen, nor do I hope that the Lions scouts advise drafting Rosen. I'm not recommending drafting the wrong QB. What I am recommending is drafting a falling QB that can vastly outperform his draft position.

Second, because the QB position is so fraught and unpredictable (especially coming out of college and how they will actually adapt to the NFL...), there is STILL nothing wrong with drafting both Willis and Stroud: (a) if in position to do so, and (b) if your scouts believe both will turn into franchise QB's.

If you're right, trade one for a big return. If injuries happen, still have a starter, and if your scouts mess up, yes, you have Josh Rosen, but again, that's a scouting/ drafting problem, not a value problem.

The other closest thing to the above is the Packers who, by various means ended up with high-demand backup QB's who they traded for more than their acquisition cost: Matt Hasselback, Aaron Brooks... and I thought there was a 3rd one...?

Fun fact: In the draft that the Lions selected Dan Orlovsky in the 5th round... in the 6th and 7th rounds of that draft, there were the following QB's selected: Matt Cassel, Ryan FitzPatrick and Derek Anderson.

Nobody drafts 1st round QBs in back-to-back years unless the first one is terrible for a reason.  To get multiple 1st round picks in return for a player that player needs to prove they are a franchise QB for a white.  That means they need to play, a lot and consistently well.  So you will need to start the QB you want to trade, hoping that the backup you aren't playing will be as good or better, but you don't know because they don't play.  And if you do this and it all happens to work out then you have to explain to the team/ownership/fanbase why you didn't play the better player all along!  And the time you spent showcasing the lesser QB that you want to trade you have 1 less talented player on the roster because you spent that pick on a backup QB.   GMs and coaches have to prove themselves yearly or risk losing their jobs, so they are not going to risk current success on a gamble like this.

[Cruzer1]

I'm officially on the Kenny Pickett hype train. He was outstanding in the win against Clemson. That's a major league defense. And Drake London is climbing the charts, he's now thought of as a top 10 pick.

https://gbnreport.com/2022-gbn-big-board/

Edited October 28, 2021 by Cruzer1

[1984Echoes]

8 hours ago, sagnam said:

Nobody drafts 1st round QBs in back-to-back years unless the first one is terrible for a reason.  To get multiple 1st round picks in return for a player that player needs to prove they are a franchise QB for a while.

Wrong on both counts.

The Cowboys drafted both Aikman and Walsh in the 1st round because Walsh was a vastly underdrafted QB prospect (they thought). NOT because they thought Aikman was terrible. And Walsh had proven NOTHING when they traded him for two 1sts and a 3rd.

How about when the Redskins drafted RGIII in the 1st, and Kirk Cousins in the 4th, of the same draft... how did that work out for them?

If you want to go ahead and draft QB's like the Cleveland Browns did the past 10 years, go for it. But I prefer the Cowboys or Packers models...

Edited October 28, 2021 by 1984Echoes

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

The Cowboys drafted both Aikman

I think that '89 draft still stands alone as the only draft where 4 of the 1st 5 picks are all in the HOF. And the one miss was Tony Mandarich - LOL.

[NYLion]

2 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

I'm officially on the Kenny Pickett hype train. He was outstanding in the win against Clemson. That's a major league defense. And Drake London is climbing the charts, he's now thought of as a top 10 pick.

https://gbnreport.com/2022-gbn-big-board/

Pickett has baby hands, like a good deal smaller than Goff's hands which are below average as is, so I'd be hesitant with him. Granted, Burrow also has small hands but he's an exception.

[MichiganCardinal]

23 hours ago, buddha said:

the last time the lions bottomed out they went from 0-16 to 2-14 to 6-10.  i suspect this is our equivalent of 0-16 and i think next year will be our 2-14 season.

too many misses from quinn and a roster full of ordinary players.  

as for a qb, you just cant miss if you take one in round one.  if they really think a pickett, or ridder or willis is worthy of a #1 pick, then by all means do it.  but as of right now, it doesnt seem like anyone thinks that way.

while we are early in the process, you usually start to hear a lot if hype by this point about top qb prospects being in the top pick conversations and youre just not hearing it this year.

The last time they bottomed out though they didn't fully clear house until after the 0-16 season. I think this is our 2-14 season and we should be looking for 4-8 wins next year.