2022 Trade Deadline

[sabretooth]

It pains me to say this but I think the greatest likelihood of success, relatively speaking, next year and the year after that, are for the Tigers to basically stay the course.

I want Avila gone, and he should be gone, but I have no confidence that Chris I would hire a new GM that would be significantly better than Avila even though I'm confident that Avila sucks.

I don't have much confidence in our assemblage of players in the organization, but whether its Avila or someone else, they are not likely to get markedly better players.  My guess is that Chris has maxed out his payroll, and theres not enough being freed up from Grossman to make a splash in 2023. 

They will likely get some OF like Tommy Pham or something, which is OK, but the so-so starting pitching is going to hold them back from being a playoff team, and I dont see them fixing that with this owner/FO combination.

[sabretooth]

The bottom line is I think they're ceiling is probably 500 or so, and maybe they get lucky and win a little more, shop at the ASB, and eek into the playoffs.  I give that 10:1 odds against, but its the best theyve got with a crummy owner.

[Sports_Freak]

Getting ris of Grossman and Hill is addition by subtraction. We still have about 7 outfielders or so? Prolly 5 of them could go, too. But I liked keeping the others arms. Jimenez looks like he finally figured it out and Soto is still under team control for a few years. These guys may have more value in the winter and could be moved then.

[Sports_Freak]

5 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

It pains me to say this but I think the greatest likelihood of success, relatively speaking, next year and the year after that, are for the Tigers to basically stay the course.

I want Avila gone, and he should be gone, but I have no confidence that Chris I would hire a new GM that would be significantly better than Avila even though I'm confident that Avila sucks.

I don't have much confidence in our assemblage of players in the organization, but whether its Avila or someone else, they are not likely to get markedly better players.  My guess is that Chris has maxed out his payroll, and theres not enough being freed up from Grossman to make a splash in 2023. 

They will likely get some OF like Tommy Pham or something, which is OK, but the so-so starting pitching is going to hold them back from being a playoff team, and I dont see them fixing that with this owner/FO combination.

Pitching wasn't their problem this season, it was the entire line-up slumping. And why in the world would we possibly want to get another outfielder? We already need to clear out several from the roster. We have Carpenter coming in too. Just a glut of underperforming or unproven outfielders already.

[Edman85]

The worst part of Gipson-Long is that he is Rule 5 eligible, meaning the Twins were likely looking to dump him in advance of the offseason. If the Tigers lose somebody on waivers this offseason, you can look back on this trade.

[chasfh]

7 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

The bottom line is I think they're ceiling is probably 500 or so, and maybe they get lucky and win a little more, shop at the ASB, and eek into the playoffs.  I give that 10:1 odds against, but its the best theyve got with a crummy owner.

My fear is that we evolve into something like the Pirates going forward: luck into the occasional impact player from drafting, signings or trades; surround him with AAAA and underachieving-veteran teammates; play ~70-win ball year after year while the impact player matures; trade impact player at the deadline before they can make too-high salaries and receive underwhelming prospects in returns; rinse and repeat ad infinitum. Can you see something like that happening with Riley or TORK!? As long as this regime is in control, I can.

[mtutiger]

19 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

The worst part of Gipson-Long is that he is Rule 5 eligible, meaning the Twins were likely looking to dump him in advance of the offseason. If the Tigers lose somebody on waivers this offseason, you can look back on this trade.

Any chance they leave him exposed in the Rule 5 draft?

[casimir]

38 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

The worst part of Gipson-Long is that he is Rule 5 eligible, meaning the Twins were likely looking to dump him in advance of the offseason. If the Tigers lose somebody on waivers this offseason, you can look back on this trade.

Is Gipson-Long someone that is going to be drafted in the rule 5?  Just looking at his age and stats, it seems a little far fetched.  Although, who knows, maybe Avila will draft him.

I may be wrong, I don’t know, but if this is all the Tigers could get for Fulmer, just keep Fulmer.  Don’t allow teams to bully you down to absolute nothingness as a return.  Don’t perpetuate the notion that you’ll cave in for anything at the last minute.

[sabretooth]

43 minutes ago, chasfh said:

My fear is that we evolve into something like the Pirates going forward: luck into the occasional impact player from drafting, signings or trades; surround him with AAAA and underachieving-veteran teammates; play ~70-win ball year after year while the impact player matures; trade impact player at the deadline before they can make too-high salaries and receive underwhelming prospects in returns; rinse and repeat ad infinitum. Can you see something like that happening with Riley or TORK!? As long as this regime is in control, I can.

yeah, thats a very realistic scenario.

[KL2]

46 minutes ago, chasfh said:

My fear is that we evolve into something like the Pirates going forward: luck into the occasional impact player from drafting, signings or trades; surround him with AAAA and underachieving-veteran teammates; play ~70-win ball year after year while the impact player matures; trade impact player at the deadline before they can make too-high salaries and receive underwhelming prospects in returns; rinse and repeat ad infinitum. Can you see something like that happening with Riley or TORK!? As long as this regime is in control, I can.

I mean it's possible. But they also spent 200 million this off-season. When have the pirates done that?

Edited August 3, 2022 by KL2

[JackPine]

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Edited August 3, 2022 by JackPine

[sabretooth]

51 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Pitching wasn't their problem this season, it was the entire line-up slumping. And why in the world would we possibly want to get another outfielder? We already need to clear out several from the roster. We have Carpenter coming in too. Just a glut of underperforming or unproven outfielders already.

Yes, hitting was a much bigger problem this year....I wasnt trying to hone in on the most likely position to fix, I was just using Pham as an example of the kind of player they might get....most importantly, he will not be an impact hitter, which we clearly need, likely several of them.

But I really think that their starting pitching is going to be a bigger problem, and they are more likely to have decent hitting than decent starting pitching, especially if they cant keep guys healthy.

There's something about all of these injuries to their starting pitchers that worries me.   For as good as Fetters is at getting the most out of guys when they're pitching, there has been an incredible number of injuries.  At a certain point you have to wonder if it's not just bad luck.

[KL2]

1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

It pains me to say this but I think the greatest likelihood of success, relatively speaking, next year and the year after that, are for the Tigers to basically stay the course.

I want Avila gone, and he should be gone, but I have no confidence that Chris I would hire a new GM that would be significantly better than Avila even though I'm confident that Avila sucks.

I don't have much confidence in our assemblage of players in the organization, but whether its Avila or someone else, they are not likely to get markedly better players.  My guess is that Chris has maxed out his payroll, and theres not enough being freed up from Grossman to make a splash in 2023. 

They will likely get some OF like Tommy Pham or something, which is OK, but the so-so starting pitching is going to hold them back from being a playoff team, and I dont see them fixing that with this owner/FO combination.

Wait the pitching, which were on about the 18th guy on the depth chart, is what will hold them back. Not the historically bad offense?

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, KL2 said:

I mean it's possible. But they also spent 200 million this off-season. When have the pirates done that?

As an aside, one thing that differentiates national baseball media over Tiger fans when discussing this team is the fact that the national folks always seem to state that resources aren't the problem here. Ken Rosenthal even stated it in his much discussed (and praised) article on Avila's tenure.

I have my gripes about Chris I and have criticized him when it has seemed necessary. But his problems and Bob Nutting's problems aren't quite the same.

Edited August 3, 2022 by mtutiger

[AlaskanTigersFan]

I said back in December that we'd have probably the worst line up in the AL if not all of MLB. It was pretty obvious... Chasfh nailed it head on though. We are going to be stuck on this hampster wheel for quite a while.

 

Avila did nail the draft two years ago though with Keith, Cabrera, Dingler, and Workman. I'm still not sold on Cruz. But the others could be regulars. That was probably one of the best overall drafts (even though it was 5 rounds) that the Tigers have had in the last half century, if not longer..... Now we just need to hope that some of them pan out and Greene, Tork and Baez remember how to hit. I really think Greene and Tork will be just fine next year and especially the year after. Baez should be decent (not great). But thats 3 out of 9 hitters we need. If we can get 2 or 3 more from our current farm (Jung) and then suppliment with 2 really good signings, we'll be right back into it. But again, this is still 2-3 years from where we are now... and even that might be wishful thinking. I'd love a new GM though.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Kirk Gibson is the Steve Yzerman equivalent in that he's smart, open to new ideas and was a champion with us.  But he's ill.

Maybe Alex Avila is the answer. 

maybe if kirk gibson had built a championship team with another organization.

but he hasnt.

there is no tigers equivalent to steve yzerman and what he built in tampa bay.

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I said back in December that we'd have probably the worst line up in the AL if not all of MLB. It was pretty obvious... Chasfh nailed it head on though. We are going to be stuck on this hampster wheel for quite a while.

 

Avila did nail the draft two years ago though with Keith, Cabrera, Dingler, and Workman. I'm still not sold on Cruz. But the others could be regulars. That was probably one of the best overall drafts (even though it was 5 rounds) that the Tigers have had in the last half century, if not longer..... Now we just need to hope that some of them pan out and Greene, Tork and Baez remember how to hit. I really think Greene and Tork will be just fine next year and especially the year after. Baez should be decent (not great). But thats 3 out of 9 hitters we need. If we can get 2 or 3 more from our current farm (Jung) and then suppliment with 2 really good signings, we'll be right back into it. But again, this is still 2-3 years from where we are now... and even that might be wishful thinking. I'd love a new GM though.

Meadows makes 4, if he stops being plagued by literally every ailment known to man

But yeah. Way more questions than answers lol

[Sports_Freak]

18 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Yes, hitting was a much bigger problem this year....I wasnt trying to hone in on the most likely position to fix, I was just using Pham as an example of the kind of player they might get....most importantly, he will not be an impact hitter, which we clearly need, likely several of them.

But I really think that their starting pitching is going to be a bigger problem, and they are more likely to have decent hitting than decent starting pitching, especially if they cant keep guys healthy.

There's something about all of these injuries to their starting pitchers that worries me.   For as good as Fetters is at getting the most out of guys when they're pitching, there has been an incredible number of injuries.  At a certain point you have to wonder if it's not just bad luck.

Yeah, I would hope it's just young arms pitching at max effort on every pitch. Well be getting Turnbull back next season and the only good thing about the SP injuries, it gave us the chance to find a deeper pool of talent than I thought they even had. With the exception of Hill...he's just a much too young kid.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

14 minutes ago, buddha said:

maybe if kirk gibson had built a championship team with another organization.

but he hasnt.

there is no tigers equivalent to steve yzerman and what he built in tampa bay.

We need to take an executive from a team that knows how to build from within. I love that we took coaches from the Dodgers last year. But we need to look at the Assistant GM or Scouting Directors from Tampa Bay, Dodgers, San Diego, or Blue Jays. Get someone who knows how to get the RIGHT young guys into the system.....  I'd really love them to snipe someone from Tampa Bay. But thats a wish list....

[sabretooth]

23 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Wait the pitching, which were on about the 18th guy on the depth chart, is what will hold them back. Not the historically bad offense?

I just responded to this directly above.

[1984Echoes]

My best positive spin on the Fulmer trade:

A) First thing... what is all the whinging about the Rule 5? Either Avila got a steal and therefore we WANT this guy protected in the Rule 5... OR... he's hot garbage and therefore no one should be worried about the Rule 5 on him. Can't have both. Either Avila found a steal, or the guy's hot garbage. The Rule 5 has ZERO bearing.

B) I'm going to guess the Tigers dug into his peripherals/ spin rates/ etc... and think they can do something with him. So... I see everyone is unimpressed by his AA 7.17 ERA... but Fetters and Avila and other Tigers wanted this lottery ticket, for some reason. I think that may be, in and of itself a positive; but that's only an assumption on my part... so there's pretty much zero value in that. But still... it has me wondering what they see/ think they can do with this guy. I don't want to write him off as hot garbage... just yet. Simply because the Org was interested in him.

C) So... Peripherals? Spin Rates? I'm trying to find info as best I can... not so easy. But before I get to that... the 1st thing that pops out to me on baseball reference is that every year, he's running K-BB ratios between 4 and 6. His 7.17 ERA in AA? Comes with a 5.83 K-BB ratio. His K-Rates in pre-AA are 9.4, 12.4, 11.4. He's making hitters miss. In AA it's 8.4. But all of these with walk rates of around 2 per 9, hence the high K-BB ratios. His WHIP in High A is 0.93 this year and 1.25 last year. 1.32 in Low A last year and 1.38 in AA this year. His FIP's were all low 3's until AA this year (and this year in AA he's got a really low 50% LOB rate, which should regress back to a higher mean)... I don't see anything bad yet, even with that 7+ ERA in AA so far... Which leads me to...

D) 9.1 Hits/ 9 over his entire minors, and 11 hits / 9 in AA. So he can be hit. I think he's got a low-90's FB without much movement and eminently hittable. Can Fetters etal fix this? I believe Fangraphs has him with an above average slider. He's low 90's FB with a low 80's slider and I believe also a low 80's Curve or Changeup? Maybe they turn him into a reliever and he hits mid-90's instead of low-90's. Maybe they get him to play at the top of the zone with a new 4-seamer. Not certain what the team intends to do with him. Maybe he'll stick as a starter. We'll see. But... the thing I keep coming back to is that the Org wanted this guy. They're looking at peripherals/ spin rates/ etc. and... see... something.

E) PS: Fangraphs really likes him. Even says that he may not quite make it to MLB but might be a AAAA guy. Still... if he ended up a 7th starter in AAA and made some important spot starts or pitched some middle innings... they are saying that he's not nothing. That's something to me.

 

So.. now I'm interested. I'm interested to see if the Org can turn horseshit, or what everyone looks at and thinks is horseshit... not into gold (I think that's too much to ask...), but... maybe into something useful like: aluminum?

[sabretooth]

6 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Yeah, I would hope it's just young arms pitching at max effort on every pitch. Well be getting Turnbull back next season and the only good thing about the SP injuries, it gave us the chance to find a deeper pool of talent than I thought they even had. With the exception of Hill...he's just a much too young kid.

Yes, there is a potential upside to this unforetunate experiment, but it hinges on keeping guys healthy.  Admittedly, some of these pitchers came into this season coming off injuries or with mechanical issues that caught up, and the Tigers couldnt do enough to protect them when things snowballed.

If Fetters has the answers to all of this, then they could make the rotation work, but I really think that they need at least one or two more quality arms, and I think they are unlikely to go get them.  Hopefully Eduardo can pitch a full season effectively in 2023.

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

We need to take an executive from a team that knows how to build from within. I love that we took coaches from the Dodgers last year. But we need to look at the Assistant GM or Scouting Directors from Tampa Bay, Dodgers, San Diego, or Blue Jays. Get someone who knows how to get the RIGHT young guys into the system.....  I'd really love them to snipe someone from Tampa Bay. But thats a wish list....

Wouldn't short sell the Dodgers on that front tho... they have a ton of money yet are Ray-like in a lot of ways though.

Either way, the discussion about bringing home a former great to run the team is beside the point... the team needs a new vision, one from the outside, it doesn't need to look to the past.

[1984Echoes]

32 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

... there has been an incredible number of injuries.  At a certain point you have to wonder if it's not just bad luck.

I think that is primarily because the system/ team/ organization has a crapload of... very, very, very young pitchers. Who are going from nothing-innings last year to a full workload this year. And their arms are crapping out. I might be wrong... but I'm not going to dwell on it and am just going to wait it out until the arms all sort themselves out.

I hope Turnbull pitches some innings this year as I want to write him into the rotation next year. And I'd like to give Olson and Wentz and Brieske shots to fill in at the back end of the rotation next year.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

I hope Turnbull pitches some innings this year

I think that is off the table. Well - Hinch thinks it is anyway. The way he talked about 'not being in the room' on the trade negotiations was interesting.

Edited August 3, 2022 by gehringer_2