2022 Trade Deadline

[chasfh]

25 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

One could very easily be a good scout and poor GM which I suspect is the case with Avila.  

I would actually be surprised if there were much Venn intersection between the two at all.

[RatkoVarda]

from article

But as the Tigers rinse and repeat the underwhelming feelings of the past few trade deadlines — Daniel Norris for Reese Olson, Cameron Maybin for Zack Short, Nick Castellanos for Alex Lange and Paul Richan, Shane Greene for Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte — it’s all too clear the team, which had such high hopes entering the season, is stuck in a spiral of misery. 

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

from article

But as the Tigers rinse and repeat the underwhelming feelings of the past few trade deadlines — Daniel Norris for Reese Olson, Cameron Maybin for Zack Short, Nick Castellanos for Alex Lange and Paul Richan, Shane Greene for Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte — it’s all too clear the team, which had such high hopes entering the season, is stuck in a spiral of misery. 

Also from the article:

Quote

“We had several conversations,” Avila said. “It’s not like we were calling teams and trying to push the issue. I explained to you guys very well that if the right deal were to be pursued then we would have to have an open mind and look at it. … I do think it got overblown as far as the amount of inquiries or conversations.”

Someone on this board said yesterday suggested that Al is just passive at the deadline and expects things to come to him and it constantly doesn't. This quote is just too on the nose lol

[RatkoVarda]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Someone on this board said yesterday suggested that Al is just passive at the deadline and expects things to come to him and it constantly doesn't. This quote is just too on the nose lol

when DD traded Fister, he said he had a list of 1 guy he had to have and then reached out to 10-15 teams; Nats agreed to include Ray, so trade got done;

I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that Al is afraid - terrified really - to make a mistake; every transaction he does is from The Basics of GMing from 1986; conservative, old school; get a handful of guys and hope one works out

[buddha]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I think this means Baseball is doubling down on the home run: by mandating removal of the extra fielder from the pull side, more batters will be encouraged to try to pull and lift the ball out of the park because if they miss and hit liners or grounders, it’s more likely they’ll get base hits instead of grounding out 9-3.

The wild card will be whether they keep the ball deadened or, preferably, deaden it even more to reduce homers back down to under 1.00 per team game. I don’t think they would do so if the home run is the most popular prop bet event, which I would not doubt that it is.

 

but the shift has been growing more prevalent every year and players have not stopped trying to pull the ball and hit to all fields.  not sure why eliminating the shift is an indication that they want more home runs.

i think they want more balls in play and more people on the basepaths.  that's what theyre looking for.

[chasfh]

4 minutes ago, buddha said:

but the shift has been growing more prevalent every year and players have not stopped trying to pull the ball and hit to all fields.  not sure why eliminating the shift is an indication that they want more home runs.

i think they want more balls in play and more people on the basepaths.  that's what theyre looking for.

They'll probably get slightly more balls in play, but not because players would be changing their approach and trying to spray line drives all around the field looking for base hits, which might have happened over the course of a few seasons if the shift were to continue apace and the ball were to continue in its current slightly-deadened state. A sea change in general batter approach was never going to occur within a single season.

But what the continuing shift plus deadened ball might have accomplished is hitters finally waking up to the idea that not only is the ball not going to fly out of the park like before, but that failure to hit as many homers would result in even more outs because the rate of homers hit over the shift would fall below the ROI breakeven point due to making outs by hitting into the shift, which might have led hitters to find other ways to get hits, i.e., change their approach to hit around shifts.

Now with the removal of the shift starting next year, players can continue to try pulling homers out of the park, and when they fail to barrel the ball sufficiently to do so, they can be rewarded with the consolation prize of more base hits into right field, and they can then just try to pull it out of the park again next time up at the plate. Their behavior won't change, but the results will be marginally better enough for them to keep trying. That strikes me as a recipe for continuing elevated rates for home run and strikeouts, two outcomes Baseball loves because highlights (and, presumably, prop-bet gambling).

What I will be interested in seeing next year is whether the ball is livened up again and homer rates go back up. Based on whatever my understanding might be of what makes Baseball as a business tick, that's at least a 50-50 proposition.

[kdog]

This guy has overvalued his own assets every trade deadline. The deadline is a benchmark to incrementally increase the talent level of your organization every year.

He can't read a market and he can't honestly assess his own roster. And he is in constant CYA mode making excuses with his media mouthpieces. Even Lynn has turned on him so it's close to being over.

All you need is an honest executive who can tell the owner that they are years away. Then allow him to make trades to really rework the talent level in this organization.

Edited August 3, 2022 by kdog

[RatkoVarda]

Boyd, Fulmer, JV, JD, Castellanos, Upton, Kinsler = Alex Lange

[1984Echoes]

7 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Boyd, Fulmer, JV, JD, Castellanos, Upton, Kinsler = Alex Lange

I love how people straight up MISREPRESENT the facts (I consider that a form of LYING) to bolster their position.

Wanna try being honest in your next post?

[KL2]

1 hour ago, kdog said:

This guy has overvalued his own assets every trade deadline. The deadline is a benchmark to incrementally increase the talent level of your organization every year.

He can't read a market and he can't honestly assess his own roster. And he is in constant CYA mode making excuses with his media mouthpieces. Even Lynn has turned on him so it's close to being over.

All you need is an honest executive who can tell the owner that they are years away. Then allow him to make trades to really rework the talent level in this organization.

 BAU post for Kdog. Misrepresentation. Distortions and facts based only on what happened in the last 5 minutes. 

 

[kdog]

10 minutes ago, KL2 said:

 BAU post for Kdog. Misrepresentation. Distortions and facts based only on what happened in the last 5 minutes. 

 

I have no idea what you are arguing in this thread. Is Avila good or bad? Should he lead the organization going forward? I say he is bad and is clueless and has no idea how to build a winning major league org. I think I've been pretty clear in my analysis. It's clear he can't handle a trade deadline. We have prima facie evidence of that. The free agents he has signed have more or less been disasters.

Make your point and I will respond. No need to S%%tpost. If you want to argue against my opinion, feel free.

[SoCalTiger]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

And heeeere co-o-ome the pretzels ...

 

Yes this article is right on but too bad it falls short calling for Al's ouster. I know its hard to gain access by doing that but still needs to be said. Henning to his credit is and I think WoJo has also. 

[SoCalTiger]

This is what stood out to me in the article :

But this year’s deadline does seem like one more symptom of a disease Tigers fans know all too well. The Tigers and their current front office have failed to display creativity in navigating the market, executing trades and ultimately constructing a roster.

[kdog]

2 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

This is what stood out to me in the article :

But this year’s deadline does seem like one more symptom of a disease Tigers fans know all too well. The Tigers and their current front office have failed to display creativity in navigating the market, executing trades and ultimately constructing a roster.

Make the argument for Avila to re-rebuild. Tell me what you see that should allow him that leeway.

Not for Socal...for others.

Edited August 3, 2022 by kdog

[casimir]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

I think this means Baseball is doubling down on the home run: by mandating removal of the extra fielder from the pull side, more batters will be encouraged to try to pull and lift the ball out of the park because if they miss and hit liners or grounders, it’s more likely they’ll get base hits instead of grounding out 9-3.

The wild card will be whether they keep the ball deadened or, preferably, deaden it even more to reduce homers back down to under 1.00 per team game. I don’t think they would do so if the home run is the most popular prop bet event, which I would not doubt that it is.

 

I think you're right about pulling the ball.  Hitters haven't figured out to adjust and swing at vast holes on the infield (which, OK, it ain't the easiest thing to do).

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said:

Yes this article is right on but too bad it falls short calling for Al's ouster. I know its hard to gain access by doing that but still needs to be said. Henning to his credit is and I think WoJo has also. 

While Henning acknowledges that Ilitch will probably have to fire Avila, basically only because the fans are screaming for it, his article reads more to me like he is exasperated by people criticizing Avila, to the point of saying in as many words that it is reckless of fans to criticize the 2017 return on Verlander and J.D. through 2022 eyes, and that it’s practically not Avila’s fault that he walked into a seven-year-long ambush following the firing of Dave Dombrowski.

Henning could not even bring himself to flat out say that the rebuild didn’t have to be this bad for this long. He had to qualify it by saying that “some will say”, “maybe correctly”, that it didn’t have to be so bad, and qualified it again by saying “they might be right”.  He simply can’t bring himself to putting that opinion on the record, who knows why—perhaps out of respect for all the dinners, drinks, and off-the-record conversations he probably had with Avila over the decades.

Henning is an executive’s beat columnist. He’s not going to drive the bus over Al as long as Al is still here.

Edited August 3, 2022 by chasfh

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

While Henning acknowledges that Ilitch will probably have to fire Avila, basically only because the fans are screaming for it, his article reads more to me like he is exasperated by people criticizing Avila, to the point of saying in as many words that it is reckless of fans to criticize the 2017 return on Verlander and J.D. through 2022 eyes, and that it’s practically not Avila’s fault that he walked into a seven-year-long ambush following the firing of Dave Dombrowski.

Henning could not even bring himself to flat out say that the rebuild didn’t have to be this bad for this long. He had to qualify it by saying that “some will say”, “maybe correctly”, that it didn’t have to be so bad, and qualified it again by saying “they might be right”.  He simply can’t bring himself to putting that opinion on the record, who knows why—perhaps out of respect for all the dinners, drinks, and off-the-record conversations he probably had with Avila over the decades.

Henning is an executive’s beat columnist. He’s not going to drive the bus over Al while he’s still here.

 

 

Some will say, maybe correctly, that it didn’t have to be this bad, for this long.

They might be right.

Indeed, "people are saying...."

[kdog]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

While Henning acknowledges that Ilitch will probably have to fire Avila, basically only because the fans are screaming for it, his article reads more to me like he is exasperated by people criticizing Avila, to the point of saying in as many words that it is reckless of fans to criticize the 2017 return on Verlander and J.D. through 2022 eyes, and that it’s practically not Avila’s fault that he walked into a seven-year-long ambush following the firing of Dave Dombrowski.

Henning could not even bring himself to flat out say that the rebuild didn’t have to be this bad for this long. He had to qualify it by saying that “some will say”, “maybe correctly”, that it didn’t have to be so bad, and qualified it again by saying “they might be right”.  He simply can’t bring himself to putting that opinion on the record, who knows why—perhaps out of respect for all the dinners, drinks, and off-the-record conversations he probably had with Avila over the decades.

Henning is an executive’s beat columnist. He’s not going to drive the bus over Al while he’s still here.

 

 

Some will say, maybe correctly, that it didn’t have to be this bad, for this long.

They might be right.

Henning despises that the Tigers built the 2006-2014 run from free agency and trades. He thinks that all rebuilds have to be organic from the farm system and all free agent contracts are poison. He blames fans for demanding that money gets spent to improve. Then blames fans for the contracts turning out bad, not the people who signed the contracts.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

I think you're right about pulling the ball.  Hitters haven't figured out to adjust and swing at vast holes on the infield (which, OK, it ain't the easiest thing to do).

I don’t think hitters en masse could change their approach to hitting in a single year, basically because it probably takes at least that long to recognize the change as being persistent and not transitory. I would think that it would take two, three, maybe more years for such a change to be completed on a league-wide basis. And even then, not all players who today rely on launch angle at the cost of high strikeouts in the service of chasing home runs would be able to hack it in that new game.

Because of that, I believe a deadened ball with the shift still in place, one that eventually would create a sea change in hitting to spraying more line drives around, might result in a different composition of players playing in the majors in the first place. Some current players wouldn’t be able to hack the change and crap out quicker; others who might not make the majors today because they can’t jack bombs but are decent at spraying line drives around would have a better chance. I think just that change in player composition due to the reprioritizing of skill sets would make it a very different game—and one I think I would enjoy more.

Edited August 3, 2022 by chasfh

[pyrotigers]

Absolutely perplexed how someone could be dumb enough to say "we weren't trying to do anything" and not instantly get fired. 

A part of my job is (unfortunately) making collection calls. I should tell my boss that I'm just going to wait for people to call me from now on and see how it goes over. 

At the least, part of a GMs job is public relations, and Avila is abysmal at this 

[alex]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

 

2 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

This is what stood out to me in the article :

But this year’s deadline does seem like one more symptom of a disease Tigers fans know all too well. The Tigers and their current front office have failed to display creativity in navigating the market, executing trades and ultimately constructing a roster.

2 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

 

Seems that Al does have 'some' scouting ability. He is a 'baseball guy'. He can go get a player if they are a FA or released and the boss gives him the green light. IMHO, I still feel he has a place in the organization and could still help.

Actually, I, as did many, felt that the team took a good step forward last year. Hinch and staff, the performance of certain players and young SPs coming on. I/many felt that the 2021-22 off season acquisitions were pretty sound as well (Barnhart, ERod, Baez, Chafin, Pineda and Meadows) but injuries (a whole other story and IMHO rosters need to be expanded to 27 or 28) took a real toll and much regression took place with others, for whatever reason.

However, it does not seem at all that AA has the ability to negotiate the 'art of the deal' with other GMs. To be creative in his thinking (ex 3 team trades, etc.) and think outside of the box. Something is missing here. The Tigs, IMHO, could of obtained a player to help for the future 'if' they perhaps would have included a prospect or two of their own at this last deadline. Way too many deals were done with creativity and we just flat out 'whiffed'.

AA, IMHO, is also very loyal and hence slow with making decisions ex batting coaches, certain people still have his ear in the front office, others have been here perhaps too long in other areas, etc.

Hopefully Chris I. can see some of this. I feel A.J. now understands much of this - and he may have even more say in the future. Yet, again, AA still may have a place with the the organization - however it may time for a new creative GM who can negotiate deals with others, who is not afraid of change and up to snuff with the game of today (ex injury understandings as depth is needed throughout - how long can Harold keep playing 1B, lol).

Go Tigers !

Edited August 3, 2022 by alex

[theroundsquare]

31 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

Absolutely perplexed how someone could be dumb enough to say "we weren't trying to do anything" and not instantly get fired. 

A part of my job is (unfortunately) making collection calls. I should tell my boss that I'm just going to wait for people to call me from now on and see how it goes over. 

At the least, part of a GMs job is public relations, and Avila is abysmal at this 

I'm not here trying to defend Avila but I read the "we weren't trying" part to apply to Skubal specifically, not the trade deadline in general 

[sabretooth]

17 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I think that is primarily because the system/ team/ organization has a crapload of... very, very, very young pitchers. Who are going from nothing-innings last year to a full workload this year. And their arms are crapping out. I might be wrong... but I'm not going to dwell on it and am just going to wait it out until the arms all sort themselves out.

I hope Turnbull pitches some innings this year as I want to write him into the rotation next year. And I'd like to give Olson and Wentz and Brieske shots to fill in at the back end of the rotation next year.

Yeah, they started with a base of young guys and a number of them recovering from TJ surgery.  But there were other healthy guys like Mize and Turnbull who broke.  

Like the hitters cratering due to the deader ball this year, the past 7 years of jacked-up baseballs also took their toll on our pitching.  It's sad that the pitching injuries racked up this year, probably the result of youngsters largely coming up through the ranks and competing in the minors and MLB with juiced baseballs.  By the time the balls were deadened this year, it was already too late to stop the inevitable injuries from years of over-torquing young arms.

The league-wide switch to the deader ball needs to stay in place, and pitchers need to be able to throw 6 innings every five days without blowing out their arms.  As it stands, our coaching staff (in the minors as well) needs to be aligned behind research and metrics that preserves arms for innings coverage, especially now that the balls are more pitcher-friendly.

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

As it stands, our coaching staff (in the minors as well) needs to be aligned behind research and metrics that preserves arms

Aye! There's the rub.

What happens when (assuming they were to) they finally find out unequivocally and undeniably, that throwing sliders and/or relievers pitching back to back both damage arms? How can they step back from things so ingrained into the game, and in the former case, traditionally impossibly to enforce even if they had wanted to? That is the interesting thing too, today you could outlaw a pitch like the slider and you could know in real time whether the pitcher tried to throw one and rule it balk. That was never a possibility until very recently but it does open up a whole set of possibilities that may never have previously been considered.

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I don’t think hitters en masse could change their approach to hitting in a single year, basically because it probably takes at least that long to recognize the change as being persistent and not transitory. I would think that it would take two, three, maybe more years for such a change to be completed on a league-wide basis. And even then, not all players who today rely on launch angle at the cost of high strikeouts in the service of chasing home runs would be able to hack it in that new game.

Because of that, I believe a deadened ball with the shift still in place, one that eventually would create a sea change in hitting to spraying more line drives around, might result in a different composition of players playing in the majors in the first place. Some current players wouldn’t be able to hack the change and crap out quicker; others who might not make the majors today because they can’t jack bombs but are decent at spraying line drives around would have a better chance. I think just that change in player composition due to the reprioritizing of skill sets would make it a very different game—and one I think I would enjoy more.

Yes, I agree.  Hitter approaches like major launch angle changes, pull vs. spray hitting, pitch selection....these rarely ever change for a particular hitter, and when they do, it seems to take at least the better part of a year for the hitter to stabilize and/or improve his performance level as a result.

The far more common way in which a team adapts hitting approaches is by getting new hitters that fit that approach.