2022 Detroit Lions Regular Season Thread

[Hongbit]

4 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think there is some truth to this statement. Not that it’s absolutely true (if the Lions were actually 6-1 I don’t think they make this trade), but I do think that dealing Hock this year was on the radar well before we started 1-6.

I can’t tell if Brad is emphasizing he didn’t care about trading within the division or that he was going to move Hock regardless to not fitting their long term plans.

I sense a little vibe that the organization felt the individual and his commitment were also a little underwhelming to their expectations

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Jason_R said:

Eh. I'm not sure it signifies anything. 2019 was not a great draft. Ten combined Pro Bowls from the first rounders and Hockenson had one of them.

The other option debated at the time was Ed Oliver, who has turned into a good rotational DT for Buffalo. In retrospect he probably would have been the better choice, especially considering he will probably sign his second contract for $15 million less than Hock. Chalk one up for the people who argued about positional value. 

In one sense, it doesn't really matter if the whole draft was a bust or not, if you have high picks that aren't building toward a winning team, your rebuild is bust. Whether it's the fault of the the GM making the picks or a cosmic alignment that meant no good players came out of the NCAA for a year doesn't really matter to how depressing it is for Lions' fans to see one more of their shots at impact players coming to ashes.

Edited November 2, 2022 by gehringer_2

[MichiganCardinal]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Brad Holmes quote was "If our record was reversed and it made sense for us, then we would have still done it." That doesn't come off to me as he insisted he would have made he trade if records were reversed.

 

23 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I can’t tell if Brad is emphasizing he didn’t care about trading within the division or that he was going to move Hock regardless to not fitting their long term plans.

I sense a little vibe that the organization felt the individual and his commitment were also a little underwhelming to their expectations

MTB pointed it out, but Birkett was pretty misleading in his tweet. I heard the full quote on the radio later, and it's a nothing-burger of a quote. "if... it made sense for us..." can do a lot of heavy lifting.

I know Brad doesn't care about trading within the division, but I think the heart of the quote, though ultimately meaningless, goes more to his idea (that I agree with) that selecting a TE 8th overall was stupid, and paying big money to pretty much any TE not named Travis Kelce is equally stupid. This is even more true when you should already have a dynamic offense headlined by Swift, ASB, and Jaymo... Brock Wright and James Mitchell should be able to do a competent job of being a 6th lineman and/or going downfield and catching 10-20 yard passes. If they can't, you can find cheap options in free agency who can.

[Motor City Sonics]

Three first round TEs for a team that has never been that competitive.     Pettigrew, Ebron and Hock...............None of them lived up to where they were picked.   To me, a TE feels like something you pick in the 4th round that you hope pays off, or if you take them in the 1st or 2nd it's because your team is loaded and they are one of the final pieces.    The players we could have had with those picks.............frustrating. 

[MichiganCardinal]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Three first round TEs for a team that has never been that competitive.     Pettigrew, Ebron and Hock...............None of them lived up to where they were picked.   To me, a TE feels like something you pick in the 4th round that you hope pays off, or if you take them in the 1st or 2nd it's because your team is loaded and they are one of the final pieces.    The players we could have had with those picks.............frustrating. 

PFF put out a list in late May 2022 of their top TEs. Here's the top ten corresponding to where they were drafted.

1. Travis Kelce: 63rd pick (3rd Round) of 2013

2. George Kittle: 146th pick (5th Round) of 2017

3. Darren Waller: 204th pick (6th Round) of 2015

4. Mark Andrews: 86th pick (3rd Round) of 2018

5. Kyle Pitts: 4th pick (1st Round) of 2021

6. Dallas Goedert: 49th pick (2nd Round) of 2018

7. Rob Gronkowski: 42nd pick (2nd Round) of 2010

8. Dalton Schultz: 137th pick (4th Round) of 2018

9. TJ Hockenson: 8th pick (1st Round) of 2019

10. Hunter Henry: 35th pick (2nd Round) of 2016

 

Two first-round selections, one of whom is in the midst of a sophomore slump and one of whom is Hockenson. It's worth noting too that those teams that have the best tight ends (Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens x2) are the better franchises in the NFL, and found those guys later in drafts.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I'd be curious to know if someone in our Player Personnel department whose been there a while, maybe a Lance Newmark or a Dave Sears, has a fetish for the Tight End position. It is truly wild how much draft capital we have wasted on the position over the past decade. Tight End is a luxury position that you don't take in the 1st round. If you are a constantly rebuilding organization like the Lions, you can't ever waste a 1st round pick on the position. It's like trying to build a car and the first thing you go out and buy is heated leather seats when you have no engine, transmission, breaks, or tires.

As for the Hockenson trade itself, I'm frankly glad he's gone. I didn't want to resign him for the money it was likely going to cost us and am glad we got something for him that we can use in this upcoming draft as apart of our rebuild. The most Lions thing ever though would be to burn another 1st round pick on the position this year after having traded Hock.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I'd be curious to know if someone in our Player Personnel department whose been there a while, maybe a Lance Newmark or a Dave Sears, has a fetish for the Tight End position.

The Lions put a TE in the HOF. Got him in the third round.

Edited November 3, 2022 by gehringer_2

[NYLion]

On 11/2/2022 at 1:12 AM, buddha said:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2023/

lions salary cap for next year.  not as much space as you might think considering how much they suck.  goff eating up a big chunk of that and a lot of folks getting raises.

I can't think of one player who is due for a significant raise. The year after is when they're going to have to pay some guys (Swift, Jackson).

You're right that they don't have as much cap space as a bottom feeder should have (mainly because of Goff) but there's no big re-signings they have to make and they can make cuts to clear more space (I fully expect Brockers and Okwara to be cut, for instance).

Edited November 3, 2022 by NYLion

[buddha]

5 minutes ago, NYLion said:

I can't think of one player who is due for a significant raise. The year after is when they're going to have to pay some guys (Swift, Jackson).

You're right that they don't have as much cap space as a bottom feeder should have (mainly because of Goff) but there's no big re-signings they have to make and they can make cuts to clear more space (I fully expect Brockers and Okwara to be cut, for instance).

i think some of the contracts they gave out recently are due for big raises.  especially ragnow and decker?

but i'm not sure.

[KL2]

41 minutes ago, buddha said:

i think some of the contracts they gave out recently are due for big raises.  especially ragnow and decker?

but i'm not sure.

They jump. Ragnow's almost doubles. Decker's big one was this year, but goes up another 5 next year. 

But they can create 40 million in cap space in cutting three players, Brockers, Vaitai and Goff

[KL2]

Just one thing to keep in mind too with 2023 free agents, yes there will be cuts. But, right now the Free agent class is god awful 

[Motown Bombers]

Looks like they can save $30 million in cuts of Okwara, Brockers and Vatai. Another $20 million if they cut Goff. If they draft a QB, they can clear $50 million and sign an Andy Dalton type as a place holder. 

They also have smaller contracts they can clear space with like $6 million post June 1st release of Charles Harris

[Motor City Sonics]

14 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The Lions put a TE in the HOF. Got him in the third round.

David Sloan was a 3rd rounder? 

[Motor City Sonics]

22 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Just one thing to keep in mind too with 2023 free agents, yes there will be cuts. But, right now the Free agent class is god awful 

Doesn't matter.  It's draft or bust.  Nobody wants to sign here.   Might as well be Siberia. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

No reason to think with that amount of potential cap space that Holmes couldn't drop his rookie QB into a ready made roster with a talent level capable of winning now. This of course assumes he hits in free agency and the draft, as well as sees growth from the players he's drafted already. It also assumes Campbell and the staff are worth a damn and can develop this talent. $50 million in cap space is enough to bring in a couple of game changing, transformative free agents on defense.

 

[Motown Bombers]

The offense is already ready made for a new QB. Good OL, solid run game and a couple receivers. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

24 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Just one thing to keep in mind too with 2023 free agents, yes there will be cuts. But, right now the Free agent class is god awful 

https://nfltraderumors.co/top-100-2023-nfl-free-agents-list/

There are a few guys right off the top I'd love to see the Lions target on defense.

RB: Josh Jacobs/Raiders, Kareem Hunt/Browns

DE/Edge: Marcus Davenport/Saints

MIKE LB: TJ Edwards/Eagles (Not sure that Edwards fits into what we want to do defensively)

CB: Jamal Dean/Bucs

S: Vonn Bell/Bengals

[Motor City Sonics]

Next Lions Head Coach - you heard it here first -- Rich Bisaccia 

[buddha]

2 hours ago, KL2 said:

They jump. Ragnow's almost doubles. Decker's big one was this year, but goes up another 5 next year. 

But they can create 40 million in cap space in cutting three players, Brockers, Vaitai and Goff

i think brockers gets cut.  vatai will either be majorly restructured or cut.  likely cut.  not sure about goff, but its a definite possibility to save $20 million.

i dont think they'll cut okwara unless its evident he cant play anymore.  he will be useful as an edge setting de that should free up hutch to just rush the passer like he did against dallas.

[KL2]

3 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

https://nfltraderumors.co/top-100-2023-nfl-free-agents-list/

There are a few guys right off the top I'd love to see the Lions target on defense.

RB: Josh Jacobs/Raiders, Kareem Hunt/Browns

DE/Edge: Marcus Davenport/Saints

MIKE LB: TJ Edwards/Eagles (Not sure that Edwards fits into what we want to do defensively)

CB: Jamal Dean/Bucs

S: Vonn Bell/Bengals

And a lot are meh, gonna get tagged or sign elsewhere, he'll bell is probably the third best free agent. It's not a deep or talented class.

As I said god awful

 

[buddha]

the bears will have $100 million in cap space.  if they want a free agent, they'll get him.

[NYLion]

20 hours ago, buddha said:

i think some of the contracts they gave out recently are due for big raises.  especially ragnow and decker?

but i'm not sure.

Yes, Ragnow's extension kicks in next season I believe and Decker restructured his contract to defer to future years but those are already counted against the cap. I thought you were referencing unsigned players that were due for raises, like UFAs or rookies coming off of rookie deals.

Ultimately, the Lions fate will be decided largely by their drafting. The Lions aren't at the point where free agents are going to make much of a difference.

Edited November 4, 2022 by NYLion

[chasfh]

On 10/19/2022 at 11:18 AM, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Well William Clay Ford allowed his drinking buddy Russ Thomas to be GM for 30 years. If it weren't for his son stepping in and axing Millen, he'd have allowed Millen to be here as long as Russ Thomas was. So it is a low bar, but given that Sheila fired Quinn and Patricia fairly quickly into her tenure, it does seem like she has more involvement and expects more accountability than her dad ever did.

Flipside argument: Sheila fired Quinn and Patricia because they were someone else's hires, not hers, so she took no heat for hiring them in the first place; so she might be more reluctant to fire Holmes and Campbell and thus will give them a lot a lot more rope, because they are her hires, she's responsible for that, and she will give them as much time as she can get away with hoping they will succeed.

[RandyMarsh]

Its a fine line between giving a GM/Coach too much rope or cutting them too early. Yeah the Lions haven't made the progress in the win/loss department like I hoped but unlike with Quinntricia I can see some positive things that Holmes/Campbell have brought to the table despite that. I believe Holmes knows what he is doing and while Campbell has made some mistakes on the field that is only one part of being a HC and maybe the most insignificant part at that.

Most on field decisions are based off of what the analytics tell you, sometime you look like a genius if those decisions work out other times you don't, but what you do away from Sunday and how players respect and want to play for you is 100% on the coach and it seems in that regard Campbell has it. I also respect the fact that he is willing to make changes and hold other coaches responsible by evidence of the Pleasant firing this year and Lynn firing last year. 

This isn't to say that both should be given a 5+ year leash but I think calling for their firing just 2 years in could be a bit premature no matter where we finish this season. Yes turnarounds can happen fast in the NFL but sometimes they do take a few years and I rather give the guys a chance to see their vision through before firing them and starting over half way through. 

[Jason_R]

6 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Its a fine line between giving a GM/Coach too much rope or cutting them too early. Yeah the Lions haven't made the progress in the win/loss department like I hoped but unlike with Quinntricia I can see some positive things that Holmes/Campbell have brought to the table despite that. I believe Holmes knows what he is doing and while Campbell has made some mistakes on the field that is only one part of being a HC and maybe the most insignificant part at that.

Most on field decisions are based off of what the analytics tell you, sometime you look like a genius if those decisions work out other times you don't, but what you do away from Sunday and how players respect and want to play for you is 100% on the coach and it seems in that regard Campbell has it. I also respect the fact that he is willing to make changes and hold other coaches responsible by evidence of the Pleasant firing this year and Lynn firing last year. 

This isn't to say that both should be given a 5+ year leash but I think calling for their firing just 2 years in could be a bit premature no matter where we finish this season. Yes turnarounds can happen fast in the NFL but sometimes they do take a few years and I rather give the guys a chance to see their vision through before firing them and starting over half way through. 

Holmes is signed for five years, Campbell for six. They have three years to rebuild and a fourth year to prove it. Nobody is getting fired this year, and it would take another disastrous start for it to be considered next year. 

This team had one of the worst rosters in the NFL. It still does. It can't get rebuilt overnight. But next season when Jaymo is fully healthy it will be like having a third first round pick join the team, plus the two seconds and a third rounder. They could finally turn the corner.