2022 MLB Postseason Thread

[Motown Bombers]

36 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

To quote Pedro Martinez (and Bob Costas)....the Astros are the Yankees Daddy

I remember when that used to be the Tigers. 

[RatkoVarda]

DD great at building winner, which is whole point of sports; effing plaques from Baseball America are just not the same

Hard to believe (not!) that Avila picked the one pitcher in the Astros system in 2017 who did not turn into a solid player

Yankee have been half-assing it for years under Cashman; outside of Cole, they have refused to spend huge on FAs or make big trade, content to be good enough

Playoffs have been great; one of the best recent non-Tigers years

 

[Jim Cowan]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Judge will be 31 next season - massive potential for some team to be having serious regrets in 2027, '28, '29...  🤔

 

That's a dilemma for sure.  His body looks nothing like Cabrera's at the same age, he probably will still look super fit in year number 8 of his next contract.  I think I would still shy away from him though, I don't want any more 38 year old guys with mega contracts.  But the extra ticket revenue for at least the first 4 years is important.  How much will he get?  8/360?

 

 

 

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

Yankee have been half-assing it for years under Cashman; outside of Cole, they have refused to spend huge on FAs or make big trade, content to be good enough

Playoffs have been great; one of the best recent non-Tigers years

 

There seems to be a lot of shock in Yankee-land after the sweep, but it seemed pretty evident coming in that Houston was a cut above. 

Sleep on Houston at one's own peril.... I'll believe they aren't the elite in the AL when I see it at this point.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said:

That's a dilemma for sure.  His body looks nothing like Cabrera's at the same age, he probably will still look super fit in year number 8 of his next contract.  I think I would still shy away from him though, I don't want any more 38 year old guys with mega contracts.  But the extra ticket revenue for at least the first 4 years is important.  How much will he get?  8/360?

 

 

 

I love him as a player. I'd offer him $40M/yr but for 5 yrs tops. If he wanted longer, just not interested.

[Tenacious D]

51 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I love him as a player. I'd offer him $40M/yr but for 5 yrs tops. If he wanted longer, just not interested.

If the Yankees and Giants are interested, the Detroit tax would make signing him prohibitive.

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

I love him as a player. I'd offer him $40M/yr but for 5 yrs tops. If he wanted longer, just not interested.

I would also be worried that his age 30 season, just completed, was outrageously superior to his entire previous body of work and only his rookie season was even close.  What changed?  Can he repeat it?  For the previous 4 years he is a .920 OPS guy with a lot of missed time.  I think I'm not in on this one for the amount of money that will be involved.

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I love him as a player. I'd offer him $40M/yr but for 5 yrs tops. If he wanted longer, just not interested.

Which he of course would refuse outright, so why bother?

If Aaron Judge wants to win next year, he won't be coming to Detroit.

While I'm at it, neither will Carlos Correa.

We may attract free agents of that caliber once we are otherwise loaded enough to win the division.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Which he of course would refuse outright, so why bother?

If Aaron Judge wants to win next year, he won't be coming to Detroit.

While I'm at it, neither will Carlos Correa.

We may attract free agents of that caliber once we are otherwise loaded enough to win the division.

I was taking that more as a couch GM in general, not necessarily here. Someone will probably give him 10 yrs, just saying I wouldn't give *anyone* 10 yrs at 30+

[Tenacious D]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Which he of course would refuse outright, so why bother?

If Aaron Judge wants to win next year, he won't be coming to Detroit.

While I'm at it, neither will Carlos Correa.

We may attract free agents of that caliber once we are otherwise loaded enough to win the division.

The difference is that there was no market for Correa last year.  Maybe it will be different for him this year, but he’s in another good SS free agent class.

[casimir]

This is fun.

Could Betts move to 2B if LA signs Judge?

[JackPine]

15 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

I would also be worried that his age 30 season, just completed, was outrageously superior to his entire previous body of work and only his rookie season was even close.  What changed?  Can he repeat it?  For the previous 4 years he is a .920 OPS guy with a lot of missed time.  I think I'm not in on this one for the amount of money that will be involved.

Anything over 120 games in a season would have to be considered a bonus. 

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

The difference is that there was no market for Correa last year.  Maybe it will be different for him this year, but he’s in another good SS free agent class.

I can’t imagine any market conditions that would lead Correa to accept five years from a team that he believes will be sub-.500 for at least a couple more years. Perhaps if it’s the only offer he gets.

[Tenacious D]

25 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I can’t imagine any market conditions that would lead Correa to accept five years from a team that he believes will be sub-.500 for at least a couple more years. Perhaps if it’s the only offer he gets.

Why 5 years?  He may require a 7-8 year deal, and at his age, it wouldn’t be the worst thing.  He’s going to go to whoever will give him the best contract.

[RatkoVarda]

any reasonable offer to Judge in terms of AAV or years will not even earn a reply

NYY, LAD and SFG are going to drive his price through the roof. I thought 10 years was unlikely, but certainly possible.

I'll say 10/375

[chasfh]

11 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Why 5 years?  He may require a 7-8 year deal, and at his age, it wouldn’t be the worst thing.  He’s going to go to whoever will give him the best contract.

He’ll go where he can get the best contract and where he believes he can win.

[Hongbit]

30 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

any reasonable offer to Judge in terms of AAV or years will not even earn a reply

NYY, LAD and SFG are going to drive his price through the roof. I thought 10 years was unlikely, but certainly possible.

I'll say 10/375

Not sure about the term but his AAV will start with a 4.  It could even hit $45M

[Jim Cowan]

18 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Not sure about the term but his AAV will start with a 4.  It could even hit $45M

Agree.

[gehringer_2]

32 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Not sure about the term but his AAV will start with a 4.  It could even hit $45M

IDK - it will be interesting to see how it plays out. The Rangers' experience certainly is going to be on the minds of owners that are interested. The way I look at it, you have to already be a very good team for high WAR player to be worth what they cost on the open market because if you are mediocre enough to have a few near replacement level players on your team, you can generate the same WAR increase for less money by upgrading a couple or 0 WAR guys to 3 WAR players than by upgrading a 2 WAR position to  7  or 8 with a Judge, plus you distribute the injury risk across two players and also get a shorter term contracts. I beleive the most cost efficient way to get better is to upgrade your weakest links first.

Now all that said, I agree there will be teams that will make him huge offers that I would judge as hopelessly misdirected decisions for those teams, but what else is new? 

Edited October 25, 2022 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

I don't know how the Yankees can rationalize to their fans and their media letting Judge walk after putting up an all-time-great season, including breaking the Yankees' presumed birthright that is the American League season record for home runs. Since it is the Yankees, I don't think "but we can't afford it" applies here.

He's going back to New York. Book it.

[buddha]

On 10/24/2022 at 10:11 AM, RatkoVarda said:

DD great at building winner, which is whole point of sports; effing plaques from Baseball America are just not the same

Hard to believe (not!) that Avila picked the one pitcher in the Astros system in 2017 who did not turn into a solid player

Yankee have been half-assing it for years under Cashman; outside of Cole, they have refused to spend huge on FAs or make big trade, content to be good enough

Playoffs have been great; one of the best recent non-Tigers years

 

stanton?

[gehringer_2]

20 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don't know how the Yankees can rationalize to their fans and their media letting Judge walk after putting up an all-time-great season, including breaking the Yankees' presumed birthright that is the American League season record for home runs. Since it is the Yankees, I don't think "but we can't afford it" applies here.

He's going back to New York. Book it.

Yeah - for the Yankees you'd think that that given their income, market, and that they are already a playoff level team, they can carry whatever dead money a big contract for Judge ends up being in a few years with relative ease. Still, if Judge tries to push them to some crazy limit based the fact the he knows all those things as well as management does, there is a point where any management will, has to, walk away. So my other prediction would be that *if* he ends up leaving the Yankees (and I'm not predicting that), it will end up being something like Correa last year - he'll end up taking something less than the Yankees best offer because while he tried to hold out for more from them, after that negotiation breaks off, no other team will even match it.

[SoCalTiger]

58 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don't know how the Yankees can rationalize to their fans and their media letting Judge walk after putting up an all-time-great season, including breaking the Yankees' presumed birthright that is the American League season record for home runs. Since it is the Yankees, I don't think "but we can't afford it" applies here.

He's going back to New York. Book it.

Agreed and it will be 400 million

[Hongbit]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

IDK - it will be interesting to see how it plays out. The Rangers' experience certainly is going to be on the minds of owners that are interested. The way I look at it, you have to already be a very good team for high WAR player to be worth what they cost on the open market because if you are mediocre enough to have a few near replacement level players on your team, you can generate the same WAR increase for less money by upgrading a couple or 0 WAR guys to 3 WAR players than by upgrading a 2 WAR position to  7  or 8 with a Judge, plus you distribute the injury risk across two players and also get a shorter term contracts. I beleive the most cost efficient way to get better is to upgrade your weakest links first.

Now all that said, I agree there will be teams that will make him huge offers that I would judge as hopelessly misdirected decisions for those teams, but what else is new? 

They probably should but I doubt the organizations that will be in play for Judge care one bit about the what Rangers have done.   Lions and sheep.  

[chasfh]

32 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Yeah - for the Yankees you'd think that that given their income, market, and that they are already a playoff level team, they can carry whatever dead money a big contract for Judge ends up being in a few years with relative ease. Still, if Judge tries to push them to some crazy limit based the fact the he knows all those things as well as management does, there is a point where any management will, has to, walk away. So my other prediction would be that *if* he ends up leaving the Yankees (and I'm not predicting that), it will end up being something like Correa last year - he'll end up taking something less than the Yankees best offer because while he tried to hold out for more from them, after that negotiation breaks off, no other team will even match it.

Quite possible. Judge already rejected a long-term deal to bet on himself with a one-year deal once, just this year.

The main two impediments I can see to that kind of waiting game are (1) Judge will be 31 next year, so the window rail is definitely not going up; and (2) he set the bar so high this year that even a season during which he slashes something like .270/.360/.580 with 45 homers will look like an off year and may drive down his 2024 market price as a 32-year-old.

THIS is the year he wants his long-term deal off of. It's almost certainly never going to be better than this.