2023 NFL Draft Thread

[RandyMarsh]

McShay has us taking Stroud at 4 and Porter at 17 in his 1st mock that came out today.

Im not against taking a qb at 4 but if they take one I hope it's not cause of the reason that he gives. He basically gave the old Goff is playing great but he's not the long term answer(despite only being 28) and they need a qb of the future. 

[RedRamage]

7 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

McShay has us taking Stroud at 4 and Porter at 17 in his 1st mock that came out today.

Im not against taking a qb at 4 but if they take one I hope it's not cause of the reason that he gives. He basically gave the old Goff is playing great but he's not the long term answer(despite only being 28) and they need a qb of the future. 

I was browsing around on the Jets sub reddit and I saw a stat that gave me pause regarding Goff:  He has some pretty horrendous home and away splits:

Home: 277 yards/game, 2.5 TDs/game, 0.375 INTs/game
Away: 227 yards/game, 0.4 TDs/game, 0.8 INTs/game

Now, I know there are LOTS of factors that come into play here besides just home vs. away (For example: injuries to receiving, having to play from behind with a poor defense... both things that have improved since the beginning of the season and we played more road games earlier).  But the differences seemed rather pronounced.

I'm NOT saying a Goff isn't an answer moving forward, but I'm going to be real interested to see how he performs  over the next stretch with 3 away games.  If the splits continue with Goff dropped off significantly when away from Ford Field, that might change my feeling on how important drafting a QB is.

 

[Motown Bombers]

Goff's road numbers will be the new he doesn't beat good teams. 

[RandyMarsh]

It sounds obvious but I feel you don't take a qb in the top 5 unless you are pretty damn confident that he is going to end up better than what you're getting with Goff and personally Im skeptical any of them will be. 

Thats why I hate the lazy "Goff isnt the answer long term, they need their qb of the future" without giving any reason why they feel the qb they are drafting will be better than the 28 year old that is top 7 in qbr that they have now. 

[Motown Bombers]

A 28 year old QB who is top 7 in QBR, but was also drafted #1 overall not that long ago and has a couple Pro Bowls under his belt. A QB who played well enough to convince the Rams he was the long term answer and gave him a long term contract. This isn't a situation like Geno Smith where he suddenly has a good year. Goff is playing at the level he was playing at in 2017 and 2018. 

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

It sounds obvious but I feel you don't take a qb in the top 5 unless you are pretty damn confident that he is going to end up better than what you're getting with Goff and personally Im skeptical any of them will be. 

Thats why I hate the lazy "Goff isnt the answer long term, they need their qb of the future" without giving any reason why they feel the qb they are drafting will be better than the 28 year old that is top 7 in qbr that they have now. 

IDK, Goff is still pretty much exactly what people said he was when he got here - a guy who throws well and makes good decisions given a good O-line giving him time and receivers that get open. I sort of think it's less that Goff was been any different either when they were losing or winning. It's the team around him and the perceptions of he and the team are what has changed.

So if you are a GM, I guess the question is: How much can the incremental improvement that a QB with mobility and maybe more daring get you in terms of wins given that you have that good OLine and receivers that get open -  as compared to using that draft capital somewhere else?

[Hongbit]

5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

It sounds obvious but I feel you don't take a qb in the top 5 unless you are pretty damn confident that he is going to end up better than what you're getting with Goff and personally Im skeptical any of them will be. 

Thats why I hate the lazy "Goff isnt the answer long term, they need their qb of the future" without giving any reason why they feel the qb they are drafting will be better than the 28 year old that is top 7 in qbr that they have now. 

It comes down to how much of this is Goff versus the team around him is finally putting it all together.   I don’t know the answer and the next 4 weeks will be telling.   At the very least, Goff has been a solid game manager and isn’t making mistakes.  I doubt a rookie would come in next year and perform better in those areas.  On the flip side,  I also doubt whether Goff can keep up this level of play for the next few seasons.   Tough choices.  

[RandyMarsh]

1 minute ago, Hongbit said:

It comes down to how much of this is Goff versus the team around him is finally putting it all together.   I don’t know the answer and the next 4 weeks will be telling.   At the very least, Goff has been a solid game manager and isn’t making mistakes.  I doubt a rookie would come in next year and perform better in those areas.  On the flip side,  I also doubt whether Goff can keep up this level of play for the next few seasons.   Tough choices.  

That is the million dollar question and why I'm not opposed to taking a qb if Holmes and company feel the guy can be somebody that can carry the offense regardless of personnel around him but one guy in this draft who I don't think fits that bill is Stroud which is the guy most likely to fall to us.

He isn't uber athletic, doesnt have a howitzer of an arm and doesnt make a ton of "wow" throws. Instead he takes care of the ball and takes advantage of the great receivers he has always had. He's somebody that I would bet needs the right personnel around him to be successful.

 

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

IDK, Goff is still pretty much exactly what people said he was when he got here - a guy who throws well and makes good decisions given a good O-line giving him time and receivers that get open. I sort of think it's less that Goff was been any different either when they were losing or winning. It's the team around him and the perceptions of he and the team are what has changed.

So if you are a GM, I guess the question is: How much can the incremental improvement that a QB with mobility and maybe more daring get you in terms of wins given that you have that good OLine and receivers that get open -  as compared to using that draft capital somewhere else?

This is another argument I like. He's not good when you have a shit team around him so lets draft another QB we hope can be good with a shit team around him. It's Stafford 2.0 if you are lucky. 

[Motown Bombers]

Look at the pass he made to Chark for the long TD. You can see a receiver come wide open in the middle of the field about 6-7 yards down field. That would probably be an easy 1st down. Instead, he made no hesitation and threw a perfect strike downfield for a TD. It's weird what legit deep threats can do but instead people focus on what he couldn't do with the likes of Raymond, Kennedy and Hodge last year. Even Aaron Rodgers has proven to be mortal when the offensive line isn't as good and the receivers are inexperienced. Green Bay thought Rodgers would just make magic without Adams. 

[djhutch]

Bryce Young is the only QB I'd be interested in this year.  CJ Stroud isn't that mobile & doesn't do all that great a job getting out of pressure .. at least he hasn't against Michigan's D in the last 2 years. I'd go DL with the Rams pick - CB with ours - then fill in the LB/OL/RB positions.  At the risk of sounding like a homer, I would love Blake Corum, because I think his running style fits what this offense is already doing with Swift, when Swift is healthy. 

[Stanley70]

If Goff were a starting pitcher he would have 3-4 games in a row where he gets knocked around and lasts an inning and a third. And then has 5-6 games where he pitches great. 

He is definitely an accurate QB. Given time and talent at the WR position he can hit shots to all parts of the field, although his arm strength is average. Put pressure on him, with his lack of mobility, he can't function and turns into checkdown Charlie.

I think the Lions will make an effort to bring in a QB, but if they can't find the right one at the right price they will be content to move forward with Goff.

[Motown Bombers]

Goff reminds me of Doug Fister. Doesn't have overpowering stuff and when he was on Seattle had a terrible W-L record, but on a good team he was very effective. 

[buddha]

the jets game will be a big test for goff.  he had a similar test against the giants and passed it, so there is precedent.  

the jets are a better defense than the giants, so it should be tougher.

[buddha]

if holmes thinks stroud or levis or hooker or that kid from florida are going to be game breakers at qb then you draft one of them.  jared goff is not that kind of player.

if you dont, you pass on them and run with jared for another year and look to next year's class.

[buddha]

44 minutes ago, djhutch said:

Bryce Young is the only QB I'd be interested in this year.  CJ Stroud isn't that mobile & doesn't do all that great a job getting out of pressure .. at least he hasn't against Michigan's D in the last 2 years. I'd go DL with the Rams pick - CB with ours - then fill in the LB/OL/RB positions.  At the risk of sounding like a homer, I would love Blake Corum, because I think his running style fits what this offense is already doing with Swift, when Swift is healthy. 

a healthy swift has made a big difference for this team.  i dont know if corum is as talented as swift.  

that said, im not opposed to the lions taking a running back after seeing how well the offense runs with multiple good backs in it.  and if swift cant stay healthy, they're going to need another playmaker back there.

[NYLion]

1 hour ago, RedRamage said:

I was browsing around on the Jets sub reddit and I saw a stat that gave me pause regarding Goff:  He has some pretty horrendous home and away splits:

Home: 277 yards/game, 2.5 TDs/game, 0.375 INTs/game
Away: 227 yards/game, 0.4 TDs/game, 0.8 INTs/game

Now, I know there are LOTS of factors that come into play here besides just home vs. away (For example: injuries to receiving, having to play from behind with a poor defense... both things that have improved since the beginning of the season and we played more road games earlier).  But the differences seemed rather pronounced.

I'm NOT saying a Goff isn't an answer moving forward, but I'm going to be real interested to see how he performs  over the next stretch with 3 away games.  If the splits continue with Goff dropped off significantly when away from Ford Field, that might change my feeling on how important drafting a QB is.

 

Those stats need a lot of context.

LEts examine the road games after New England in particular when everybody was a disaster...

The Dallas game he was playing with practice squad receivers, literally none of them would be in the starting rotation when healthy (remember St. Brown got hurt early in that game). He did make a couple of poor decisions in that game regardless. Not a good game.

He played solid, mistake free ball against the Bears and engineered a long TD drive in the clutch. Still down a few receivers btw.

Giants game. I don't think it showed in the stats but I thought he played a solid game. He didn't need to do much because they were frontrunning most of the game and made some critical throws to my recollection.

There's a couple of factors that limited him on the road. Lots of injuries to skilled position players and game management. He's clearly playing better at home especially now that the receivers got healthy on this homestand and they've opened up the playbook more but he's been just fine on the road since the New England game. Not dynamic but good enough to win. This will be the first road game all season that he'll have his full compliment of receivers so it'll be interesting to see if they open it up a bit.

Edited December 13, 2022 by NYLion

[RandyMarsh]

Not that the draft gurus rankings should be taken as gospel but must those guys rankings that Ive seen have Corum as a borderline top 10 RB in this class and I kinda agree with that. Yeah he was awesome for Michigan but I just don't think he has the true top end speed or explosiveness to be a game changing back in the NFL.

[Hongbit]

50 minutes ago, buddha said:

if holmes thinks stroud or levis or hooker or that kid from florida are going to be game breakers at qb then you draft one of them.  jared goff is not that kind of player.

if you dont, you pass on them and run with jared for another year and look to next year's class.

Hendon Hooker is pretty much undraftable.  He turns 25 next month and will miss most of his rookie season rehabbing a knee injury.   

[Tigeraholic1]

I love mobile QB’s but they also bring a huge risk factor. Just look at the current crop in the NFL and how many are healthy NOT named Allen.

[MichiganCardinal]

36 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Hendon Hooker is pretty much undraftable.  He turns 25 next month and will miss most of his rookie season rehabbing a knee injury.   

I think criticizing a QB for their age in the draft is silly. If they’re good they’re good, who cares how old they are? If I have a QB for ten years, they probably turned out to be pretty good. Whether they’re 31 or 35 after those ten years. If anything, it should meant you get them in their prime on a team friendly rookie contract.

That said I wouldn’t consider Hooker until at least the 3rd or 4th round because of his injury. He could be a steal in the right situation though.

[buddha]

2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Not that the draft gurus rankings should be taken as gospel but must those guys rankings that Ive seen have Corum as a borderline top 10 RB in this class and I kinda agree with that. Yeah he was awesome for Michigan but I just don't think he has the true top end speed or explosiveness to be a game changing back in the NFL.

kinda like mike hart....but a little bit faster.

it wouls have been nice to see him play this year against georgia.

i think corum is a 3rd or 4th round pick at best coming off that knee injury.

[Hongbit]

1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think criticizing a QB for their age in the draft is silly. If they’re good they’re good, who cares how old they are? If I have a QB for ten years, they probably turned out to be pretty good. Whether they’re 31 or 35 after those ten years. If anything, it should meant you get them in their prime on a team friendly rookie contract.

That said I wouldn’t consider Hooker until at least the 3rd or 4th round because of his injury. He could be a steal in the right situation though.

If it’s silly to criticize a QB for their age, what is it when you criticize them for their age and their injury status too! 

He’s old with a damaged knee that won’t play for another year.  I wouldn’t take him in the top 4 rounds in the USFL draft.  

Edited December 14, 2022 by Hongbit

[RandyMarsh]

That's a shame about Hooker's age and him getting injured cause watching him this year he really impressed me and was somebody that I would have thought long and hard about taking in the 2nd or 3rd round but I just assumed he was normal college age, had no idea that he was that old. And while I agree with Cardinal in a sense that QB age generally isn't that important to me coming out of the draft since they showed they can be valuable well into their mid 30s when it comes to somebody who is more dependent on their athletic ability the age is something that I would consider. 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

That's a shame about Hooker's age and him getting injured cause watching him this year he really impressed me and was somebody that I would have thought long and hard about taking in the 2nd or 3rd round but I just assumed he was normal college age, had no idea that he was that old. And while I agree with Cardinal in a sense that QB age generally isn't that important to me coming out of the draft since they showed they can be valuable well into their mid 30s when it comes to somebody who is more dependent on their athletic ability the age is something that I would consider. 

Not impossible. Roger Staubach played his first NFL game at 27. Made it to the HOF. Just unlikely.

Edited December 14, 2022 by gehringer_2