2023 NFL Draft Thread

[Motown Bombers]

13 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

No, I wouldn't want to do that. We are just in a unique situation this particular year given all the draft capital we have to make a move that nets us both an elite defender and starting QB on a rookie wage scale.

I trust Brad Holmes and I am all for keeping Jared Goff at this point if that's what the front office and coaching staff decide. He's played well enough to stick around. It is just food for thought to think of other scenarios like this.

Seems like an awful lot of risk for short term temporary cap relief. I'm not sure the message it sends to them team that you just want to be cheap with the leader of your team. 

[1984Echoes]

13 minutes ago, buddha said:

i see a steady decline since 2018 until this year.  look at his qbr.  the fancy stats show he dropped off significantly since 2018.

part of this is perception.  there will be numbers out there that dont show a "steady" decline or a significant decline, but i think there are enough indications that he was playing poorly in LA and here last year to convince me he did decline significantly and steadily.

The problem with this type of analysis is...

Was Goff steadily getting worse each year, or was his supporting cast getting worse each year dragging his numbers down?

I don't think you can separate the two which in my mind makes the analysis moot.

The only two criteria in my mind is: right now, is he an effective QB for the team the Lions have built? Can the Lions win with him (including playoff games and Supers if we are so fortunate)?

[1984Echoes]

22 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I read a stat (the stat itself was from 2018 I believe, so it may be dated now) that said in the last decade no Super Bowl winning team has ever had one player take up more than 14% of the salary cap. Goff right now takes up 14.3% of our cap space. Luckily for us, Goff's cap % falls under 14% over the next 2 seasons. That stat alone doesn't justify taking a rookie QB and having the rookie wage scale, but it is food for thought.

I seriously do NOT believe that the current Lions management is going to make their decision based on...

"Is our QB on a rookie wage scale"?

[RedRamage]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The one thing I see trending down for the player on the left is passing yards. I would also note his passing attempts decreased. I would also note that when he through only 3,245 yards, he had deep threats like Quintez Cephus and Kalief Raymond. I also don't see the 7th year where the QB reverts to the year 2 and year 3 QB. 

I think we've probably beat this discussion into the ground.  I think there's enough evidence to still hold out some question on whether Goff is the QB of the future (as in the next 3-5 years) where as I get the impression that you feel the Goff's production this year is enough evidence that we should ride him for the near future (don't want to put words in your mouth, so lemme know if that's not what you're thinking/saying). 

I doubt very much that we're going to reach a conscious on this without at least seeing the remainder of this seasons games... and that's fine.  In the long run I very, very much doubt Holmes will be calling either of us up for advice on the QB position for 2023.

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, 1984Echoes said:

I seriously do NOT believe that the current Lions management is going to make their decision based on...

"Is our QB on a rookie wage scale"?

As they shouldn't. It should be whether they believe that A) Goff isn't the guy, and B) the rookie QB is better than Goff. 

[buddha]

9 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

The problem with this type of analysis is...

Was Goff steadily getting worse each year, or was his supporting cast getting worse each year dragging his numbers down?

I don't think you can separate the two which in my mind makes the analysis moot.

The only two criteria in my mind is: right now, is he an effective QB for the team the Lions have built? Can the Lions win with him (including playoff games and Supers if we are so fortunate)?

ok, then how can you ever analyze anyone who plays football?

[Hongbit]

10 minutes ago, buddha said:

ok, then how can you ever analyze anyone who plays football?

You use Matthew Stafford as a baseline and compare everyone to him.  It also helps if you constantly regurgitate stats from 2017 & 2018. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Hongbit

[1984Echoes]

15 minutes ago, buddha said:

ok, then how can you ever analyze anyone who plays football?

Here's my analysis:

I watched Goff in several games the past few weeks...

The dude can throw! And get scores (lots of 'em) for the Lions!

Good enough for me!

Any numbers prior to this year are moot. Including his better 2017-18 numbers.

[Motown Bombers]

7 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

You use Matthew Stafford as a baseline and compare everyone to him.  It also helps if you constantly regurgitate stats from 2017 & 2018. 

Literally compared one person to Stafford but I'll await your thorough analysis. 

[1984Echoes]

Now... I'm not trying to be facetious or sarcastic...

I actually meant what I said...

In a more serious tone...

[sagnam]

This isn’t all that difficult in my opinion.  If you think Goff struggles with a bad team and thrives on a good team then great, what does that analysis get you?  All that matters is what would a better QB do?  If Holmes is drafting a QB to replace Goff then you should probably hope they are better and thrive even more on a good team.  On a bad team you just hope they survive until the team is better.

 

Kansas City seems to have been confident that Mahomes was going to be better than Smith.  The hope is you have evaluators that are right, and that they will make that upgrade when they see the opportunity.

[MichiganCardinal]

I've made the comp before but I still see a lot of Kansas City Alex Smith in Jared Goff.

The Chiefs blew it up in 2012 after going 2-14. They fired everyone and brought in Dorsey and Andy Reid. They had the #1 pick in 2013, but rather than doing the stereotypical thing of picking the top QB available (though there wasn't a consensus #1, this was the weird year where EJ Manual was the only QB taken in the 1st Round), they signed Alex Smith in free agency and took Eric Fisher at #1, the best tackle available.

They had Smith for five years, and went 53-27 in that stretch, making the playoffs four times and finishing above 0.500 each season. I think if the stars aligned, they could have made a Super Bowl run with Smith, and it sure didn't seem like they were in any hurry to ditch him. After the 4th year though, the stars aligned in a different way, where a QB they had scouted as being pretty dang good fell to a spot where they could trade up and get him. That decision worked out pretty well, as Smith started for one more season, then Mahomes took his place and took them to the next level.

I think a lot of the controversy with Goff amongst fans is the optics surrounding how he came to Detroit. He was shipped out of LA along with significant draft capital, and the season after they replaced him LA won a Super Bowl while Goff struggled on a 3-13-1 team. That screams "he's no good", regardless of whether it's true or not. It's not. Far more went into Goff's lack of success in LA in the later years and Stafford's immediate success in LA than meets the eye of that trade. And I think if Goff had been signed in free agency rather than kicked out of the last place he was at, a certain contingent of people (I'm not directing this at anyone here) would have a little bit different view of him.

[Motown Bombers]

25 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

I think we've probably beat this discussion into the ground.  I think there's enough evidence to still hold out some question on whether Goff is the QB of the future (as in the next 3-5 years) where as I get the impression that you feel the Goff's production this year is enough evidence that we should ride him for the near future (don't want to put words in your mouth, so lemme know if that's not what you're thinking/saying). 

I doubt very much that we're going to reach a conscious on this without at least seeing the remainder of this seasons games... and that's fine.  In the long run I very, very much doubt Holmes will be calling either of us up for advice on the QB position for 2023.

I feel this year he has proven he is capable of being the QB he was in 2017 and 2018 which was a franchise QB. The Rams thought highly enough of that production to make him the highest paid player in football at the time. I think he shown enough this year to table QB discussions for at least another year. I believe that he has shown the upside to be the QB for the next few season. I also think pedigree matters. He was the number one pick for a reason. The Rams, including the current Lions GM, thought he was a franchise QB and he played like it for a couple seasons. I also think there is reason to believe, based on examples close to the Lions, that QBs can peak and decline and peak again. I think people made up their mind about Goff the minute he was traded to the Lions. He's playing like a top 10 QB on a top 5 offense. This is a different situation from someone like Geno Smith who is playing out of his mind and never came close to this type of season. Goff isn't even on pace to break any of his single season career highs. He's shown he's capable of playing at this level in the past. 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

ok, then how can you ever analyze anyone who plays football?

the thing is you have to have a theory to make sense of the data or it's just all chance correlation. If a guy plays well, then plays poorly under a new condition 'x' (McVay?) and then plays better later when condition 'x' is absent, you can't build a very persuasive case that his skills somehow degraded and then miraculously came back. I would say that with a QB you need to watch his film knowing what the play was and what his options were, did he make the right play or not. We don't have much access to that info. Then you can rate some things directly, like does he throw the ball accurately, touch, zip etc. So I would say his coaches are in a good position to rate a QB, and that position is way better than a fan can get from looking at game outcome stats, where 21 other guys on the field plus coaches all had input to what happened. If an OC says he has a QB that an do everything he needs to make his offense go, that is what you have to care about - a lot more than QBR. 

That said, Goff's skillset clearly wasn't a match for what McVay wanted to run. Does that matter if the Lions aren't interested in McVay's offense? Sure you'd love to have a QB that can do everything and anything on the field, but are you going to wait another 50yr for that one in a million guys to fall in your lap or find a guy you can actually get who is skilled enough to do what you think you need to do to win? You can do a lot of losing trying to find the perfect QB.

Bottom line is that Eli Manning has more SB rings than Aaron Rogers or Dan Marino.

Edited December 14, 2022 by gehringer_2

[RandyMarsh]

Theres also this false narrative that you need a Mahomes or Allen type to win in this league and that's simply not true.

In the last 10 or so years we've seen Flacco, Foles, a broken down Peyton Manning and the guy nobody thought you could win with Matthew Stafford win Super Bowls. There were also a host of other Goff types including Goff himself make a SB.

Sure it would be nice to have one but the odds of you coming across one and them developing into said player statistically aren't very high. There just aren't that many of those guys that come into the league. 

We're getting to the point where KC was when they had so few holes they could take a chance on a guy like Mahomes or Baltimore with Lamar but I just don't think we are there yet. If we have another great draft this year and a guy comes along in 2024 that has that potential elite upside perhaps then we can take him with our 1st pick or even trade future capital to move up to get him but right now I think we have a few obvious holes that can be plugged with early picks and Id prefer that route, particularly when our current qb is playing at the level he is. 

[buddha]

5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Theres also this false narrative that you need a Mahomes or Allen type to win in this league and that's simply not true.

In the last 10 or so years we've seen Flacco, Foles, a broken down Peyton Manning and the guy nobody thought you could win with Matthew Stafford win Super Bowls. There were also a host of other Goff types including Goff himself make a SB.

Sure it would be nice to have one but the odds of you coming across one and them developing into said player statistically aren't very high. There just aren't that many of those guys that come into the league. 

We're getting to the point where KC was when they had so few holes they could take a chance on a guy like Mahomes or Baltimore with Lamar but I just don't think we are there yet. If we have another great draft this year and a guy comes along in 2024 that has that potential elite upside perhaps then we can take him with our 1st pick or even trade future capital to move up to get him but right now I think we have a few obvious holes that can be plugged with early picks and Id prefer that route, particularly when our current qb is playing at the level he is. 

the true narrative is that you need better players to win in football.  if the lions think they can upgrade their qb position (the most important position) in the future through a high pick in this year's draft, they should do it.

[NYLion]

2 hours ago, Hongbit said:

You use Matthew Stafford as a baseline and compare everyone to him.  It also helps if you constantly regurgitate stats from 2017 & 2018. 

Well, their careers have taken some very similar trajectories. It's not like Goff is being compared to Brady.

Both were picked #1, both struggled mightily in their rookie season then vaulted to Pro Bowl level early in their career then hit a dip in Years 4-6 only to have a comeback season in Year 7. The similarities in terms of career trajectory, not style of play, are strikingly similar and is worthy of comparison especially since there were so many here who defended Stafford for years and are skeptical of Goff now.

FTR, I'm not completely sold on Goff either but he has the pedigree and a proven track record of success so why can't he be the QB of the future? I'm not entirely convinced he has but he does have the track record to think that maybe he could be.

[gehringer_2]

Of course we know 1st hand how bad some of the teams Stafford had to front were.

[RandyMarsh]

28 minutes ago, buddha said:

the true narrative is that you need better players to win in football.  if the lions think they can upgrade their qb position (the most important position) in the future through a high pick in this year's draft, they should do it.

This is true and that's why that while Im personally against taking a qb early I won't go kicking and screaming if they do if they feel that the offense could run even better with said qb.

Like say if they feel Stroud throws a better deep ball than Goff and in turn he can take the offense to another level than yeah feel free to take him. I just don't agree with the notion that you have to take one just cause Goff isn't the answer and you need a qb for the future. 

[Motown Bombers]

43 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Well, their careers have taken some very similar trajectories. It's not like Goff is being compared to Brady.

Both were picked #1, both struggled mightily in their rookie season then vaulted to Pro Bowl level early in their career then hit a dip in Years 4-6 only to have a comeback season in Year 7. The similarities in terms of career trajectory, not style of play, are strikingly similar and is worthy of comparison especially since there were so many here who defended Stafford for years and are skeptical of Goff now.

FTR, I'm not completely sold on Goff either but he has the pedigree and a proven track record of success so why can't he be the QB of the future? I'm not entirely convinced he has but he does have the track record to think that maybe he could be.

The similarities don't end there. In Stafford's 7th season, when he was 27, Lions offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is fired and Jim Bob Cooter is elevated to offensive coordinator. Stafford's QB rating improves from 86 under Lombardi to 105. His elevated play continues into the next season and beyond.

In Goff's 6th season, when he was 27, Anthony Lynn is fired for all intents and purposes. Ben Johnson is de facto coordinator with Campbell calling plays. Goff's play greatly improves and that improvement continues in the next season. It remains to be seen whether Goff continues to play at this level like Stafford did, but the similarities are too remarkable to ignore.

[Hongbit]

Tremendous similarities between the McVey Rams and the Schwartz/Caldwell/Patricia Lions.   They are almost interchangeable.  

[Motown Bombers]

Fair point. The Rams didn't have one of the greatest WR of all time.

The seasons I'm comparing Stafford to Goff were before Patricia.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[RandyMarsh]

Its also worth noting that these guys are human and that McVay and Goff didn't always seem to see eye to eye.

When you arent getting along with your HC and he doesnt seem to believe in you its not out of the realm of possibility that your confidence and in turn play could suffer. Look how bad Slay and others looked here under Patricia when they didnt see eye to eye with them and when Patricia would bad mouth them.  They go elsewhere and their play got alot better.

 

 

 

[buddha]

people think goff and stafford are similar because the people on this board pay attention to the lions and goff and stafford are lions qbs.

stafford is a guy with a million dollar gun for an arm.  goff doesnt have that and is much more of a game manager type.  they are not really similar qbs.

and as we all know, the rams got rid of goff because he couldnt go downfield like stafford, or the rams felt he didnt go downfield like stafford.

[Motown Bombers]

Just so we are clear, I never said Goff and Stafford are interchangeable. I'm comparing their career paths. The talent level is irrelevant unless you feel the talent level dropped significantly on the Lions from 2011 to 2012 and beyond.