2023 NFL Draft Thread

[RedRamage]

17 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Goff's road numbers will be the new he doesn't beat good teams. 

The Locked On Lions podcast had Eric Eager (formally of PFF) who said that Goff's numbers followed whether or not ARSB played or not.

 

[RedRamage]

16 hours ago, buddha said:

the jets game will be a big test for goff.  he had a similar test against the giants and passed it, so there is precedent.  

the jets are a better defense than the giants, so it should be tougher.

I don't know that I would say that Goff passed the test against the Giants.  I mean I guess he didn't fail the test, but the Giants game was not a great game for him.

He threw for the second fewest yards (165) of any game this year.  He didn't have any TDs.  Only 17 completions (again second fewest) on 26 attempts.  Granted, he also didn't have any INTs which was good and the run game was mostly working so we won handily without Goff needing to throw 250+ yards.

I dunno... I know I've posted a lot of negative Goff stuff lately.  I'm not anti-Goff... I'm honestly very happy with him this season and I don't think we need to draft a replacement this coming draft.  But as others have said: I think you look at upgrading every position and I don't think QB should be exempt from this.  I'm not convinced (yet) that Goff can sustain this level of play.  But we've got three potentially challenging road games to finish out this year.  I certain hope that Goff makes me look silly for doubting him.

[RedRamage]

16 hours ago, NYLion said:

Those stats need a lot of context.

LEts examine the road games after New England in particular when everybody was a disaster...

Those are all valid points and I don't dispute them at all.  I hope that Goff proves these splits aren't an accurate way to measure him over the next few weeks.

[Motown Bombers]

Not convinced Goff can sustain this level of play despite Goff sustaining this level of play over full seasons previously in his career. 

[RedRamage]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Not convinced Goff can sustain this level of play despite Goff sustaining this level of play over full seasons previously in his career. 

Goff has ONE season with a ESPN QBR over 60 on pro-football-reference prior to this season.  He has ONE season with a better than 3:1 TD to INT ratio prior to this season.  His net-yards per attempt peaked in 2018 and has steadily declined until this year.  His yards per game peaking in 2018 and has also declined every since until this year.

I'm not saying Goff is trash, but there has been a steady decline in his career.  Was that because he was being used wrong? Was that because his team wasn't good around him? Was that because his coach didn't like him?  Was it because he peaked early and the league figured him out?  Maybe some of all of it... I dunno.  But it's not unreasonable to be worried that after four years of steady decline that this is an outliner rather than a new trend.

I fully understand that football is a complex game and many factors are involved other than just one player.  I believe I've said repeatedly that I'm unsure... not that I'm out on Goff.  I've also said that I want him to prove my doubts/concerns wrong. 

But I think the idea that we shouldn't have any doubt that this is the "real" Goff because he was good 4 years ago (and just ignore that he steadily declined in between then and now) is silly.

Last year I think nearly everyone figured he was a bridge QB... just keep the seat warm for whomever we drafted.  This year he's convincing a lot of people that he could very well be the QB of the future... I'm just not convinced totally yet.

[Motown Bombers]

42 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Goff has ONE season with a ESPN QBR over 60 on pro-football-reference prior to this season.  He has ONE season with a better than 3:1 TD to INT ratio prior to this season.  His net-yards per attempt peaked in 2018 and has steadily declined until this year.  His yards per game peaking in 2018 and has also declined every since until this year.

I'm not saying Goff is trash, but there has been a steady decline in his career.  Was that because he was being used wrong? Was that because his team wasn't good around him? Was that because his coach didn't like him?  Was it because he peaked early and the league figured him out?  Maybe some of all of it... I dunno.  But it's not unreasonable to be worried that after four years of steady decline that this is an outliner rather than a new trend.

I fully understand that football is a complex game and many factors are involved other than just one player.  I believe I've said repeatedly that I'm unsure... not that I'm out on Goff.  I've also said that I want him to prove my doubts/concerns wrong. 

But I think the idea that we shouldn't have any doubt that this is the "real" Goff because he was good 4 years ago (and just ignore that he steadily declined in between then and now) is silly.

Last year I think nearly everyone figured he was a bridge QB... just keep the seat warm for whomever we drafted.  This year he's convincing a lot of people that he could very well be the QB of the future... I'm just not convinced totally yet.

You know who else saw a decline in QBR after peaking early? Matthew Stafford. In 2011 his QBR was 60.5. It didn't reach above 60 until 2016. It bottomed out at 44 in 2014, which ironically was the one year Stafford made the Pro Bowl. Stafford has never had a 3:1 TD/INT ratio in a full season. I also find it interesting that Goff's INT rate declined immediately upon leaving the Rams and Stafford's INT rate was the second highest of his career in LA. Maybe there is something about that Rams offense. When Stafford peaked in 2011 he was 23. When Goff peaked in 17 and 18 he was 23-24. When Stafford got back to a plus 60 QBR, he was 28. Goff is now back to a plus 60 QBR at age 28. What happened when Stafford turned it around at age 28? Jim Bob Cooter became offensive coordinator. What happened when Goff turned 28 and turned it around? Ben Johnson became offensive coordinator. We can look at net yards gained per attempt. Stafford peaked in 2011 (which is still lower than Goff's peak) declined and hit bottom in 2018. Goff's career high would be higher than Stafford's career high and Goff's current net yards gained per attempt currently would be the 3rd highest of Stafford's career. Goff's QB rating dipped below 90 once to 86.5. Stafford's dipped below 90 following that 2011 season for three seasons in a row bottoming out at 79. It's also not 4 years of decline. It's 3 years since Goff is reverting back to his 17-18 self.

I know KL2 is absolutely salivating to rip this apart. I'm simply illustrating that there is precedent for a QB to peak early, decline, and peak again.  The career arc of Stafford and Goff are remarkably similar. Goff actually showed two seasons of high level play before declining whereas Stafford had one. The decline and resurgence are at the same ages and they both coincide with offensive coordinator changes. 

[Jason_R]

43 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

I'm not saying Goff is trash, but there has been a steady decline in his career. 

No “steady decline.” Instead, this season, with a solid OL and full complement of weapons he is performing very near the level of his two great years with the Rams  

incidentally, those years Gurley had nearly 2,100 and over 1,800 yards from scrimmage, respectively. 

It’s almost like there are more variables than just the QB.

 

[1984Echoes]

I think Goff is the QB of NOW and the NEAR future.

But that "near" future could be just for next year, or it could be for the next 3-5 years. I believe this is the unknown that is causing our dilemma. 

He obviously can run this offense. He obviously can produce high-scoring games for us. Lions management is obviously bought into him as their starting QB.

The unknowns are:

A) Does he falter if his O-Line and/or receivers diminish? He's done this in the past... but, if Holmes keeps those shelves stocked then, maybe it's just a moot point and not really a consideration.

B) Can he win the Big Game? He got to the Big Game with a loaded Rams team, and could possibly do that if the Lions get loaded up. But he didn't win the Super Bowl, and McVay believes Goff had weaknesses where he couldn't handle adversity and improvise game-winning plays. Complete unknown to us (maybe it's true? maybe he's improved on that? doesn't look like it, but...?) and the cause of desiring a more talented QB. 

C) He's not the most talented QB. He does falter some under pressure. And make mistakes/ turnovers. He's a gifted game manager maybe, but is that it? Also, he's expensive compared to getting in a rookie contract QB. So... just how invested are the Lions in him anyways?

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

All of these issues are going to be rampant in our debates until... they actually draft the "future" QB of the Lions. This year or in any ensuing year. (I'll forego the possibility of trading for an existing NFL QB/ signing a FA QB for now...). 

And I have no answers to the questions I've raised above.

I'm willing to give Goff some time at the helm. And I will have patience. At least until he loses a key game (:wink:). but I think I am primarily going to trust Holmes/ Campbell's judgement and, if they draft Stroud or any other QB in this draft, or none at all, I'll just take it from there...

[Motown Bombers]

Even "bad Goff" made the playoffs with the Rams and won a playoff game in Seattle. Looking at the 2018 team, you have Cooks who is the upside for Williams, Kupp who is played by St Brown on the Lions, and Robert Woods who is pretty much a healthy Chark. Gurley was better than any RB the Lions currently have but this wasn't a team that was just so great any QB could have been inserted. If it was, that's great because one of the main architects of that team is currently the Lions GM. 

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, RedRamage said:

The Locked On Lions podcast had Eric Eager (formally of PFF) who said that Goff's numbers followed whether or not ARSB played or not.

 

makes sense. With instant replay improving it's getting to where home field advantage isn't what it used to be. Overall home winning % used to tend around 55-60% but has almost disappeared (as low as 51%) in some years more recently.

https://boardroom.tv/nfl-home-field-advantage-betting-value/#:~:text=Since 2010%2C home teams during,home win percentage was 55.6%.

[Motown Bombers]

*Ducks*

[Motown Bombers]

After having one season with a QBR over 60, net yards per attempt peaking in 2011, no season with a 3:1 TD/INT ratio, the Lions really need to draft a new QB. Stafford isn't the future. He's steadily declined four straight season even though the 4th season isn't a decline but is he really the future or is he just a product of having a hall of fame WR? You have these college QBs entering the draft like Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. If the Lions really want to compete, they should draft Goff and have him sit behind Stafford for a year or two. Stafford is due for an extension soon and he just hasn't proven he can win or be good without Calvin Johnson who just retired.

[RedRamage]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm simply illustrating that there is precedent for a QB to peak early, decline, and peak again. 

But would say this is the "normal" trend for QBs?  Just to make it 100% clear here: I am NOT giving up on Goff.  I am NOT saying Goff is trash.  I am NOT saying that Goff will fall apart.  What I am saying is that the fact that Goff has really good numbers 4 years ago is NOT proof by itself that Goff will sustain his good numbers this year and into next.

He might very well improve with a good OL, great weapons, and a creative OC.  There is a very good chance he will.  But I don't think it's unreasonable to hold out some of level of concern that this 3/4rds of a season might be the fluke and that the previous 4 years of dropping numbers is the norm.

Right now Goff is playing FANTASTIC ball at home.  He's playing mediocre ball on the road.  That's a small sample size and there were other factors involved of course.  So I hope Goff goes out, plays even just good ball on the road and shuts me up.  Until he does that I don't think it's out of line to say I have concerns.

[RedRamage]

1 hour ago, Jason_R said:

 It’s almost like there are more variables than just the QB.

Which is something I'm admitted... repeatedly.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

21 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

It sounds obvious but I feel you don't take a qb in the top 5 unless you are pretty damn confident that he is going to end up better than what you're getting with Goff and personally Im skeptical any of them will be. 

Thats why I hate the lazy "Goff isnt the answer long term, they need their qb of the future" without giving any reason why they feel the qb they are drafting will be better than the 28 year old that is top 7 in qbr that they have now. 

I don't think the QB you take has to be better than Goff, rather just as good as Goff. You certainly hope they are better though if you are taking one. My reasoning though for being as good as Goff is the benefit of the rookie contract that comes with a Young/Stroud/whoever. If you can move on from Goff in a year and have 2-4 seasons of a QB on a rookie contract, playing at least as good as Goff is now, I think there is some merit to that. Let's say you drafted CJ Stroud and in 2 years time he proves to be as good as Goff or only slightly better, but you get Goff's $31 million cap hit off the books, minus the $5 million in dead cap if he's cut or traded, I think there is benefit to being able to have that money available to you for 2-3 seasons and load up the roster during the off-season. The rookie contract is the game changer we never were able to have under the Matt Stafford tenure.

All this said, if someone like Will Anderson or Jalen Carter was a game changing, all pro player on defense, I wouldn't pass up on one of them just to have the benefit of a rookie contract. I'd probably take one of them. Though the argument could be made that you can get the best of both worlds by trying to find a Chandler Jones or Khalil Mack type of player to trade for while drafting your QB, thus giving you both a game changing defensive player and the benefit of a QB on a rookie contract.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[4hzglory]

4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I don't think the QB you take has to be better than Goff, rather just as good as Goff. You certainly hope they are better though if you are taking one. My reasoning though for being as good as Goff is the benefit of the rookie contract that comes with a Young/Stroud/whoever. If you can move on from Goff in a year and have 2-4 seasons of a QB on a rookie contract, playing at least as good as Goff is now, I think there is some merit to that. Let's say you drafted CJ Stroud and in 2 years time he proves to be as good as Goff or only slightly better, but you get Goff's $31 million cap hit off the books, minus the $5 million in dead cap if he's cut or traded, I think there is benefit to being able to have that money available to you for 2-3 seasons and load up the roster during the off-season. The rookie contract is the game changer we never were able to have under the Matt Stafford tenure.

This is my thought but I completely trust Holmes.  
 

I have no doubt as things stand now that Goff is the QB for 2023.  I also have think Goff has taken any trade for a QB like Lamar off the table.  

The question is a draft pick for the reasons you say and that is where I trust Holmes decision.

[Motown Bombers]

So what happens when it comes time to sign Stroud? You really want to cycle through QBs every 4 years?

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I read a stat (the stat itself was from 2018 I believe, so it may be dated now) that said in the last decade no Super Bowl winning team has ever had one player take up more than 14% of the salary cap. Goff right now takes up 14.3% of our cap space. Luckily for us, Goff's cap % falls under 14% over the next 2 seasons. That stat alone doesn't justify taking a rookie QB and having the rookie wage scale, but it is food for thought.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Motown Bombers]

I remember this exact conversation on the previous forum. Look at the Rams! They're going to the Super Bowl with a QB on a rookie contract. Ironically, the Rams ended up acquiring a veteran QB instead of cycling through another rookie QB and ended up taking a $44 million hit in cap space on QBs. 

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Jason_R said:

No “steady decline.” Instead, this season, with a solid OL and full complement of weapons he is performing very near the level of his two great years with the Rams  

incidentally, those years Gurley had nearly 2,100 and over 1,800 yards from scrimmage, respectively. 

It’s almost like there are more variables than just the QB.

 

i see a steady decline since 2018 until this year.  look at his qbr.  the fancy stats show he dropped off significantly since 2018.

part of this is perception.  there will be numbers out there that dont show a "steady" decline or a significant decline, but i think there are enough indications that he was playing poorly in LA and here last year to convince me he did decline significantly and steadily.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

So what happens when it comes time to sign Stroud? You really want to cycle through QBs every 4 years?

No, I wouldn't want to do that. We are just in a unique situation this particular year given all the draft capital we have to make a move that nets us both an elite defender and starting QB on a rookie wage scale.

I trust Brad Holmes and I am all for keeping Jared Goff at this point if that's what the front office and coaching staff decide. He's played well enough to stick around. It is just food for thought to think of other scenarios like this.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I read a stat (the stat itself was from 2018 I believe, so it may be dated now) that said in the last decade no Super Bowl winning team has ever had one player take up more than 14% of the salary cap. Goff right now takes up 14.3% of our cap space. Luckily for us, Goff's cap % falls under 14% over the next 2 seasons. That stat alone doesn't justify taking a rookie QB and having the rookie wage scale, but it is food for thought.

The Rams literally had $44 million in cap space eaten up by QBs. 24% of their cap space was taken by QBs. 

I wonder how many teams are successful drafting QBs every two years?

[buddha]

2 hours ago, RedRamage said:

Goff has ONE season with a ESPN QBR over 60 on pro-football-reference prior to this season.  He has ONE season with a better than 3:1 TD to INT ratio prior to this season.  His net-yards per attempt peaked in 2018 and has steadily declined until this year.  His yards per game peaking in 2018 and has also declined every since until this year.

I'm not saying Goff is trash, but there has been a steady decline in his career.  Was that because he was being used wrong? Was that because his team wasn't good around him? Was that because his coach didn't like him?  Was it because he peaked early and the league figured him out?  Maybe some of all of it... I dunno.  But it's not unreasonable to be worried that after four years of steady decline that this is an outliner rather than a new trend.

I fully understand that football is a complex game and many factors are involved other than just one player.  I believe I've said repeatedly that I'm unsure... not that I'm out on Goff.  I've also said that I want him to prove my doubts/concerns wrong. 

But I think the idea that we shouldn't have any doubt that this is the "real" Goff because he was good 4 years ago (and just ignore that he steadily declined in between then and now) is silly.

Last year I think nearly everyone figured he was a bridge QB... just keep the seat warm for whomever we drafted.  This year he's convincing a lot of people that he could very well be the QB of the future... I'm just not convinced totally yet.

this is my impression of goff as well.

[RedRamage]

57 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

After having one season with a QBR over 60, net yards per attempt peaking in 2011, no season with a 3:1 TD/INT ratio, the Lions really need to draft a new QB. Stafford isn't the future. He's steadily declined four straight season...

Throwing out Stafford second year where he played only 3 games, here are Goff and Stafford's numbers.  If there was a 10% increase or decrease vs. previous year I highlighted that (please note I just look at the numbers quick I may have missed one or two).  

Looking at just these numbers would you not feel concern that the guy on the left is trending in the wrong direction?  Now again, let me make it abundantly clear: The numbers don't tell the whole story so simply using the numbers and writing off a guy is not smart.

But if you see a trend like this and then you see an anomaly year I think it's also not smart to assume the anomaly is the true measure of the guy.

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Throwing out Stafford second year where he played only 3 games, here are Goff and Stafford's numbers.  If there was a 10% increase or decrease vs. previous year I highlighted that (please note I just look at the numbers quick I may have missed one or two).  

Looking at just these numbers would you not feel concern that the guy on the left is trending in the wrong direction?  Now again, let me make it abundantly clear: The numbers don't tell the whole story so simply using the numbers and writing off a guy is not smart.

But if you see a trend like this and then you see an anomaly year I think it's also not smart to assume the anomaly is the true measure of the guy.

The one thing I see trending down for the player on the left is passing yards. I would also note his passing attempts decreased. I would also note that when he through only 3,245 yards, he had deep threats like Quintez Cephus and Kalief Raymond. I also don't see the 7th year where the QB reverts to the year 2 and year 3 QB.