2023 NFL Draft Thread

[KL2]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

To me with the guys they had off the board there is virtually no difference in talent between 6 and 11 so if I can get 2 2nds for that Id do it like I said in a heartbeat, in my eyes you'd basically just be giving me 2 free 2nd rounders.

Now if there was a guy(s) who I thought was clearly ahead of the pack and wouldn't want to risk losing him then no I wouldn't risk that for 2 2nd round picks but in this instance I don't feel that is the case. 

Also got to keep in mind that yeah 2nd rounders are risky but NFL teams still covet them, All Pros have been traded for less so if you can stockpile extra capital you can do alot with that aside from making that particular selection.

I fully get the theory

But in reality little of that bears true. That's the difference. The team that trades up almost always ends up with the best player(s)

[Motown Bombers]

8 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

Goff is a very good QB although comparing him to some of the best pocket passers of all time is a stretch.  He was a number 1 pick for a reason and the reason the Rams wanted to trade him was because he doesn't make good decisions when under pressure.  You solve that problem by having a great (not good if you want to win a championship) offensive line.  I have no problem with an extension although I don't want to pay him a top 5 QB salary because then having a great offensive line becomes more difficult because of the salary cap.  These are the decisions the Lions need to make soon and find out what he is looking to get salary wise.  If he wants to win and would be happy getting a salary similar to this contract he has now (in the 5-10 range for QB salaries).  I think the best decision is to keep him and find a QB to back him up for multiple years (either a Brock Purdy pick or Bridgewater).  If wants to be paid like Hurts or Herbert) than I think it might be best to take a QB at 6 (if its a QB that they like) or wait till next year if you think its a better year for QBs (remember he actually has 2 years left on his contract).

Goff was one of the best against the blitz last year and even in 2021 and he was one of the most blitzed QBs in the league last year. You know, maybe McVay isn't the offensive super genius he is cracked up to be. Goff had the lowest INT rate of his career in Detroit. His turnover rate dropped significantly leaving the Rams. Stafford, meanwhile, lead the league in INTs and his INT rate with the Rams is among the highest of his career. You have one QB who immediately starts throwing fewer INTs when leaving McVay and another who starts throwing more when join McVay, one has to wonder if it's the offense and not the QB? At one point, the Rams thought he was one of the top QBs in the league and the future of the franchise which is why they paid him as such. Then two years later he suddenly isn't. 

 

[RandyMarsh]

13 minutes ago, KL2 said:

I fully get the theory

But in reality little of that bears true. That's the difference. The team that trades up almost always ends up with the best player(s)

I have been on record of wanting to trade up not down bc of the reasons mentioned and I agree that in general you probably aren't best served to trade down but there are outlying situations and I think this would be one of those.

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[Longgone]

32 minutes ago, KL2 said:

The team that trades up almost always ends up with the best player(s)

According to PFF, this isn't true. Where did you get that idea?

Edited April 26, 2023 by Longgone

[Motown Bombers]

In Holmes short career, he has found some pretty good mid round players. You don't need every mid round pick to be a star like St Brown, but finding quality players like McNeil, Joseph, and Rodriguez in the mid rounds is what good teams do. It makes it so they don't have to spend a lot in free agency for depth. 

[Jimbo]

I think Goff adapted his game and threw a lot of balls away instead of throwing interceptions.  When you watched the game and compared to the best pockets passers, he just doesn't make that great play.  Now I think that is a great job by Goff and I am sure the Lions told him to not worry about making that desperate play and just throw the ball away.  Its ok that he isn't Manning or Brady and its the job of the Lions coaching staff to put him in a position to be his best.  Although he just clearly isn't the best pocket passer when he gets pressure.  This is just the eye test from watching the games.  Being good in the pocket with pressure is more than not throwing interceptions.  Its also making that unbelievable play when he is getting pressure and I just don't feel like that is Goff which is OK.  Its just what it is.

[Longgone]

8 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

I think Goff adapted his game and threw a lot of balls away instead of throwing interceptions.  When you watched the game and compared to the best pockets passers, he just doesn't make that great play.  Now I think that is a great job by Goff and I am sure the Lions told him to not worry about making that desperate play and just throw the ball away.  Its ok that he isn't Manning or Brady and its the job of the Lions coaching staff to put him in a position to be his best.  Although he just clearly isn't the best pocket passer when he gets pressure.  This is just the eye test from watching the games.  Being good in the pocket with pressure is more than not throwing interceptions.  Its also making that unbelievable play when he is getting pressure and I just don't feel like that is Goff which is OK.  Its just what it is.

I believe your perception is erroneous.

[RatkoVarda]

there are not 10 people on planet Earth who are better QBs than Goff.

none of top 5 QBs drafted this year will ever - in my uninformed opinion - be better than he is.

[Motown Bombers]

I mean, Goff's completion percentage is higher over two seasons with the Lions than it was with the Rams so he can't be throwing a lot of balls away. Even if you accept that premise, Stafford has more INTs in 9 games than Goff did in 17. There just may be something about that offense.  I keep going back to it, but he and this Lions offense is looking like the Brees Saints offense. It's about a rhythm and moving the chains and not chunk plays. Brees didn't have elite physical skills outside of being very accurate. 

[Motown Bombers]

I think McVay is a good offensive mind, but I think Campbell is a better coach. When Goff was struggling, Campbell took control and took him under his wing and coached him up and it paid off with a Pro Bowl season. McVay played games and benched him in favor of John Wolford. 

[buddha]

3 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

there are not 10 people on planet Earth who are better QBs than Goff.

none of top 5 QBs drafted this year will ever - in my uninformed opinion - be better than he is.

i think richardson has a chance to be a superstar....and a chance to be the next mitch trubisky or akili smith. 

bryce young is a quandry.  he's really too small but he's such a good playmaker.  

stroud's low "processing" score is worrisome.  might be slow on the uptake like fields without the amazing athletic ability.

dont know enough about levis.

not sure i would risk it for any of them.

[buddha]

goff played well when he had a good oline and running game in LA and in Detroit.  when that fell apart, he couldnt do it on his own.  no shame in that.  he doesnt have to be aaron rogers or john elway to be a good qb.  and he was good last year.

[RandyMarsh]

Very few QBs in history can do it on their own, even Mahomes looked ordinary a couple Super Bowls ago when he played without 2 Oline Starters. 

[Motown Bombers]

It's much easier to develop a good run game than to find a QB who can succeed without a good run game or offensive line. Makes me think their better off taking Bijan Robinson than playing the lottery with one of these QBs. 

[Jimbo]

I am not going to disagree with this comment (here are not 10 people on planet Earth who are better QBs than Goff).  I am just saying I don't want to pay him top 5 money.  If we pay him in the 5-10 range, in my opinion, that is acceptable.

 

I actually like Goff.  I like the way he plays and I like him (so far) as a person and teammate.  His girlfriend isn't that bad either.  I am just saying, I don't want the Lions to make a mistake and give him a ridiculous contract.

[buddha]

$45-$50 million is the going rate for qbs.  if they want to keep goff in three seasons, one assumes that's what he will cost.

[Motown Bombers]

Contracts at first seem ridiculous until other QBs start signing them. Goff's contract was suppose to be so bad that the Rams had to pay to unload it. Now, it's considered good value. 

[RandyMarsh]

I'm not concerned at all with the cap hit. I mean we have like what 25 million in cap space right now despite Goff's current 30 million dollar hit. Even if he were to jump to the mid to upper 40s we still would be comfortably below the cap. And yeah I know we have some guys lined up to get paid but we also have a few drafts before that happens to find cheaper in house replacements along with some higher priced guys likely coming off the books by then to help offset the raises. 

Bottom line with the way teams can manipulate the cap the Lions should have no problem fielding a great team  around him if/when they sign him to a big extension. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[buddha]

1 minute ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'm not concerned at all with the cap hit. I mean we have like what 25 million in cap space right now despite Goff's current 30 million dollar hit. Even if he were to jump to the mid to upper 40s we still would be comfortably below the cap. And yeah I know we have some guys lined up to get paid but we also have a few drafts before that happens to find cheaper in house replacements along with some higher priced guys likely coming off the books by then to help offset the raises. 

Bottom line with the way teams can manipulate the cap the Lions should have no problem fielding a great team even if/when they sign him to a big extension. 

that's true to an extent, but i think every team other than the saints has to deal with cap realities.  washington is feeling it now and they dont even have a qb.  philly is starting to see it too and will for sure once hurts' extension really kicks in.  the chiefs traded away the best receiver in football because of it.  the bills just lost some good players because allen's contract kicked in.  vikings too because kirk is making $45 mil.

as for the lions, all these good young players are eventually going to get paid.  as you point out, the way to beat that is to keep the pipeline of good young players coming.

the easiest way to keep those guys is to not have to pay one player $50 million.  but as mb will point out, good qbs cost money and they are the most important position in sports.  if you have one you should keep them.  is goff that player?  reasonable minds can differ on that.  lol.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

Isn't it safe to assume that Goff is pretty good and is a legit #1 QB in the league?  If so, why are people wanting to get rid of him? Keep him, sign him to an extension, and just load up the talent around him where even if he isn't the Messiah (no blasphemy intended), he can still do good because his surrounding cast is good enough to elevate even a decent QB into greatness? (Side note: If we don't view him as a $40/year QB, what other teams do, that would sign him to a contract like that? What are we missing?)

If we are that concerned, use Pick 6 on an Olinemen and trade up from 18 to the early teens and draft Bijan. Now the offense is elite, and we still have a multitude of picks to use on defense for depth/project players where we don't even really need anyone.

I don't understand what is so complicated with people harping on Goff. He did well for the Rams and last year he won 8 of the last 10 games. What else do we realistically want from a QB?

[Hongbit]

This will put him into the 1st round for sure.   He may even be an option for the Lions at 18 if he’s still there:  

[buddha]

16 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Isn't it safe to assume that Goff is pretty good and is a legit #1 QB in the league?  If so, why are people wanting to get rid of him? Keep him, sign him to an extension, and just load up the talent around him where even if he isn't the Messiah (no blasphemy intended), he can still do good because his surrounding cast is good enough to elevate even a decent QB into greatness? (Side note: If we don't view him as a $40/year QB, what other teams do, that would sign him to a contract like that? What are we missing?)

If we are that concerned, use Pick 6 on an Olinemen and trade up from 18 to the early teens and draft Bijan. Now the offense is elite, and we still have a multitude of picks to use on defense for depth/project players where we don't even really need anyone.

I don't understand what is so complicated with people harping on Goff. He did well for the Rams and last year he won 8 of the last 10 games. What else do we realistically want from a QB?

all good points, but goff was coming off two really bad seasons in a row.  he also didnt look so hot in a few games early this year.  

i dont think they'll take a qb in round one but the argument would be to take the risk that one of them will be better than goff.  as the game turns towards more mobile qbs, you may want to have one that provides that additional element to your offense that goff does not provide.

i like goff too.  the only guys i would potentially take would be young and richardson.  but honestly, i go back and forth all the time.

[Motown Bombers]

I like how the "really bad" seasons are seasons in which he still posted a QBR of 50 and the Rams still won, made the playoffs and won a playoff game. 

[AlaskanTigersFan]

I just don't see another team knocking on the door to pay him $40mil+/year.... He's ours, lets deal with it and build around him. Now having said that, I do want them to take a QB as a backup. I really like the guy out of UCLA but I am no means a NFL qualified evaluator. But I do think we should have a really good backup.

Aaron Rodgers for all the crap people give him sat behind Farve for what, 5 years? Now with him moving on, their backup QB has been there a few years. I don't expect that big of a dropoff that everyone else assumes. They've played pretty smart with their QB's and I think thats something we can learn from as well......

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I just don't see another team knocking on the door to pay him $40mil+/year.... He's ours, lets deal with it and build around him. Now having said that, I do want them to take a QB as a backup. I really like the guy out of UCLA but I am no means a NFL qualified evaluator. But I do think we should have a really good backup.

Aaron Rodgers for all the crap people give him sat behind Farve for what, 5 years? Now with him moving on, their backup QB has been there a few years. I don't expect that big of a dropoff that everyone else assumes. They've played pretty smart with their QB's and I think thats something we can learn from as well......

The Giants gave Daniel Jones $40 million. Teams would give Goff $40 million. 

Goff didn't miss a snap last year. He's been durable his entire career. They don't need to invest much in a backup. This we need a backup phenomena is fascinating.