2023 NFL Draft Thread

[Mr.TaterSalad]

4 hours ago, Stanley70 said:

I'd like Stroud at 6 but i don't know what to make of the bad score in that test the other day, plus the questions surrounding his leadership abilities.  

If the comp for Stroud is Jared Goff, why pick Stroud then and given up on the sure thing you have already? I say/ask this as someone who wanted to run Matt Stafford out of town so we could get the next sensational rookie QB on a cheap contract. Stroud literally comps to a slightly more mobile and athletic Goff.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

If the comp for Stroud is Jared Goff, why pick Stroud then and given up on the sure thing you have already? I say/ask this as someone who wanted to run Matt Stafford out of town so we could get the next sensational rookie QB on a cheap contract. Stroud literally comps to a slightly more mobile and athletic Goff.

Because of the rookie contract and because Goff is only successful because of McVay except when McVay is Ben Johnson. We know how successful Ohio State QBs are away from that system. 

[MichiganCardinal]

27 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

If the comp for Stroud is Jared Goff, why pick Stroud then and given up on the sure thing you have already? I say/ask this as someone who wanted to run Matt Stafford out of town so we could get the next sensational rookie QB on a cheap contract. Stroud literally comps to a slightly more mobile and athletic Goff.

I know I’m higher on Stroud than most, but I think the Goff comp for Stroud is lazy and simplistic. There are very few pure pocket passers in the league, which I think is part of the reason he is dropping. Teams want their shiny new toy like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Lamar that can be both a running back and their quarterback. Of pure pocket passers in the league currently, you’re really only looking at guys like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff. But past guys would have included Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. If the comps had said Rodgers instead of Goff, they would have been no more right or wrong, because mechanically they’re all three similar players, they would have just set a much higher expectation for results. It’s easier to say “Goff” and have those expectations be surpassed than say “Rodgers” and have him turn out more like Goff.

Stroud’s floor is probably Jared Goff / Matt Ryan. Solid game manager who can and will win with pieces around him. And I think that’s a really good floor, definitely better than any of Young/Richardson/Levis. His ceiling is probably more like Rodgers, a cerebral pocket passer who can make throws on a dime. I would take him at #6 unless Anderson is also there, and if he does a Fields-like fall towards the Titans at #11, I would consider moving up from #18 to get him. Sit him behind Jared for a year, two if he needs it, and then give him the keys.

[RedRamage]

25 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

If the comp for Stroud is Jared Goff, why pick Stroud then and given up on the sure thing you have already? I say/ask this as someone who wanted to run Matt Stafford out of town so we could get the next sensational rookie QB on a cheap contract. Stroud literally comps to a slightly more mobile and athletic Goff.

If the front office looks at Stroud as Goff 2.0, then the only reason to consider taking him is if you feel there's a very good chance you're not resigning Goff and you don't expect to be in a position to get a "Goff level QB" in the next couple of years. However this seems like an unlikely thing given that Holmes and Campbell and praising Goff and Goff seems to like it here. I don't see the FO thinking they'd be unable to sign Goff.

However, if the front office looks at Stroud as a significant upgrade over Goff, then there may be a reason to do it. If they think Stroud is very capable of being better than Goff then it might very well be worth drafting him. If Stroud could be the next Rodgers (without the crazy) or Brady... you take him even with Goff on staff. However this also seems unlikely as no one seems to value Stroud quite that highly. (Though, 23 teams didn't think Rodgers was worth it and 32 teams repeatedly didn't think Brady was worth it.)

Finally, you might try to play 4D chess here and if Stroud is available and no one will trade with you because no one thinks you'll actually draft him, you might try drafting him and trading him once you have control like what the Chargers did with Eli Manning. However, this seems REALLY risky as you might not be able to moving him as Stroud doesn't seem to have nearly the same level of excitement that Manning did.

[buddha]

1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I know I’m higher on Stroud than most, but I think the Goff comp for Stroud is lazy and simplistic. There are very few pure pocket passers in the league, which I think is part of the reason he is dropping. Teams want their shiny new toy like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Lamar that can be both a running back and their quarterback. Of pure pocket passers in the league currently, you’re really only looking at guys like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff. But past guys would have included Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. If the comps had said Rodgers instead of Goff, they would have been no more right or wrong, because mechanically they’re all three similar players, they would have just set a much higher expectation for results. It’s easier to say “Goff” and have those expectations be surpassed than say “Rodgers” and have him turn out more like Goff.

Stroud’s floor is probably Jared Goff / Matt Ryan. Solid game manager who can and will win with pieces around him. And I think that’s a really good floor, definitely better than any of Young/Richardson/Levis. His ceiling is probably more like Rodgers, a cerebral pocket passer who can make throws on a dime. I would take him at #6 unless Anderson is also there, and if he does a Fields-like fall towards the Titans at #11, I would consider moving up from #18 to get him. Sit him behind Jared for a year, two if he needs it, and then give him the keys.

all good points.

[Stanley70]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

If the comp for Stroud is Jared Goff, why pick Stroud then and given up on the sure thing you have already? I say/ask this as someone who wanted to run Matt Stafford out of town so we could get the next sensational rookie QB on a cheap contract. Stroud literally comps to a slightly more mobile and athletic Goff.

Stroud has a better arm, is a better athelete, and would be about 33m cheaper for the next 4 years. Slightly is understating it a bit. Plus Goff would have trade value next year as well. 

From 2019-2021 Goff had QBR's in the mid 20's when the talent around him was mediocre to below average. Put Goff In a situation where he has to create on his own and he has proven he cannot perform.

That said there is a risk involved with drafting any QB so I understand not wanting to take a risk unless they are super confident in whom they are drafting. And at 6 it's they may not be.

I think they can win with Goff In the short term, it's just when they have to start paying some of their good young players where it may be hard to sustain.

 

[Motown Bombers]

Jared Goff never had a QBR in the mid 20's except his rookie season when he played a partial season. His QBR from 2019 to 2021 was similar to Stafford's from 2012 to 2014 and yet not nearly as many people were calling for drafting a QB. 

[Motown Bombers]

Jalen Hurts puts up QBRs of 33.8, 48.5 and 66.4 after the addition of AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and the best OL in the league and sure lets hand him a massive contract because he runs fast. Jared Goff has QBR of 50.8, 39.5 and 61.1 and he can't perform without a lot of talent but he has trade value. 

[Stanley70]

To clarify Goff finished in the 20's among qbs, his rating wasn't in the 20's. 

Hurts ran for 750 yards last year, Goff ran for 73. Which was 3 more than Matt Ryan. And Goff had arm limitations as well.

Right now Goff is in a great situation, so Lions certainly do not have to do anything. But situations change, and he will become more expensive soon.

[Motown Bombers]

Goff also threw for about 700 more yards than Hurts so it evens out and he didn't need offseason ankle surgery because he runs so much. 

[TP_Fan]

15 minutes ago, Stanley70 said:

To clarify Goff finished in the 20's among qbs, his rating wasn't in the 20's. 

Hurts ran for 750 yards last year, Goff ran for 73. Which was 3 more than Matt Ryan. And Goff had arm limitations as well.

Right now Goff is in a great situation, so Lions certainly do not have to do anything. But situations change, and he will become more expensive soon.

What arm limitations did Goff have? Lots of issues with Goff, but I think arm issues isn’t one of them. The narrative has been he doesn’t have a strong arm, but thats born of fiction. He can make every throw.  He doesn’t improvise or run well, but he can make all the throws. 

[Motown Bombers]

I like the I think you can win with Goff as if there isn't a history of winning with Goff. 

[buddha]

still hoping for carter or anderson or richardson or gonzalez.  would also be fine with stroud or witherspoon.

looking forward to talking myself into whomever holmes picks.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

44 minutes ago, buddha said:

still hoping for carter or anderson or richardson or gonzalez.  would also be fine with stroud or witherspoon.

looking forward to talking myself into whomever holmes picks.

Way to curse it.... Now he's gonna trade out of 6 and not get any of those guys.......... 😡

[Cruzer1]

Greg Cosell was on Stoney and Jansen yesterday, and he wasn't too high on Will Anderson. Said his hips were tight. Buyer beware.

Fwiw, imo Cosell is the best in the business.

[Jimbo]

I'm really not a fan of comparisons because I think it puts players in this box that isn't always true.  I understand why we do it because it gives everyone an idea of what type of player an average fan can relate to.  I think in most sports (especially football because of how many players are on the field at once) there are different ways to win.  You had the greatest show on turf and then you had Baltimore defense that won with one of the best defenses.  I hate it when teams try to get the next Brady or Mahomes because 99% of the time they are never as good as the original.  Fact is these players are one in a generation talent.  You want to be a trend setter, not trying to match something that is impossible to match.  Or try to be the next San Fran, or Rams (Greatest show on turf), or New England. Which in history is what the Lions have done.  That is why you draft with BPA.  In the draft you should always look to upgrade with younger players.  For the first time as a Lions fan we actually have a capable GM until he is proven he is not.  So I am good with it being any position regardless if we failed in the past with picking that position in the past.

[Longgone]

37 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

I'm really not a fan of comparisons because I think it puts players in this box that isn't always true.  I understand why we do it because it gives everyone an idea of what type of player an average fan can relate to.  I think in most sports (especially football because of how many players are on the field at once) there are different ways to win.  You had the greatest show on turf and then you had Baltimore defense that won with one of the best defenses.  I hate it when teams try to get the next Brady or Mahomes because 99% of the time they are never as good as the original.  Fact is these players are one in a generation talent.  You want to be a trend setter, not trying to match something that is impossible to match.  Or try to be the next San Fran, or Rams (Greatest show on turf), or New England. Which in history is what the Lions have done.  That is why you draft with BPA.  In the draft you should always look to upgrade with younger players.  For the first time as a Lions fan we actually have a capable GM until he is proven he is not.  So I am good with it being any position regardless if we failed in the past with picking that position in the past.

People always get caught up on the physical attributes of quarterbacks, when the biggest separators seem to be the ability to quickly process and read the defense, and get the ball to a spot on time. Marginal athletes with marginal arms who can do that can be successful, while great athletes with cannons who can't, wash out.

[Hongbit]

I can see Holmes jumping all over this guy with one of the 2nd rounders.  

[Cruzer1]

1 minute ago, Hongbit said:

I can see Holmes jumping all over this guy with one of the 2nd rounders.  

I know he has injury issues.

[RatkoVarda]

3 years of injuries sounds like a pattern, not bad luck

[RandyMarsh]

21 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I can see Holmes jumping all over this guy with one of the 2nd rounders.  

Yeah I just started hearing some buzz about him the last week, he's definitely the type of receiver I want us to target so if the injury history doesn't bring up any red flags for the team then Id be fine taking him with one of our 2nds. I already advocated Tillman there but if they like Wilson or somebody else better Im cool with it. 

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, Jimbo said:

I'm really not a fan of comparisons because I think it puts players in this box that isn't always true.  I understand why we do it because it gives everyone an idea of what type of player an average fan can relate to.  I think in most sports (especially football because of how many players are on the field at once) there are different ways to win.  You had the greatest show on turf and then you had Baltimore defense that won with one of the best defenses.  I hate it when teams try to get the next Brady or Mahomes because 99% of the time they are never as good as the original.  Fact is these players are one in a generation talent.  You want to be a trend setter, not trying to match something that is impossible to match.  Or try to be the next San Fran, or Rams (Greatest show on turf), or New England. Which in history is what the Lions have done.  That is why you draft with BPA.  In the draft you should always look to upgrade with younger players.  For the first time as a Lions fan we actually have a capable GM until he is proven he is not.  So I am good with it being any position regardless if we failed in the past with picking that position in the past.

I'd be very happy if they became the next Pittsburgh 

[RandyMarsh]

53 minutes ago, Longgone said:

People always get caught up on the physical attributes of quarterbacks, when the biggest separators seem to be the ability to quickly process and read the defense, and get the ball to a spot on time. Marginal athletes with marginal arms who can do that can be successful, while great athletes with cannons who can't, wash out.

This. To me the stuff you mentioned is the most important qb attribute(s) along with accuracy of course. If you have that ability chances are youre going to be a great qb unless your arm is a total noodle like Brees was at the very end of his career. Hell and even then when he couldn't throw it 30 yards he was still better than many of the physically gifted qbs that had no other skills.

Edited April 26, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[NYLion]

16 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I know I’m higher on Stroud than most, but I think the Goff comp for Stroud is lazy and simplistic. There are very few pure pocket passers in the league, which I think is part of the reason he is dropping. Teams want their shiny new toy like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Lamar that can be both a running back and their quarterback. Of pure pocket passers in the league currently, you’re really only looking at guys like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff. But past guys would have included Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. If the comps had said Rodgers instead of Goff, they would have been no more right or wrong, because mechanically they’re all three similar players, they would have just set a much higher expectation for results. It’s easier to say “Goff” and have those expectations be surpassed than say “Rodgers” and have him turn out more like Goff.

Stroud’s floor is probably Jared Goff / Matt Ryan. Solid game manager who can and will win with pieces around him. And I think that’s a really good floor, definitely better than any of Young/Richardson/Levis. His ceiling is probably more like Rodgers, a cerebral pocket passer who can make throws on a dime. I would take him at #6 unless Anderson is also there, and if he does a Fields-like fall towards the Titans at #11, I would consider moving up from #18 to get him. Sit him behind Jared for a year, two if he needs it, and then give him the keys.

If Stroud's floor was Goff or Ryan, he'd be a generational prospect. He's far from that. That's most likely his ceiling, a top 10 NFL QB but not an elite NFL QB. I'm using that pick as a trade chip if he drops to 6, have little interest in taking him.

[Motown Bombers]

Drew Brees never had elite physical tools. Brees did have elite accuracy. Watching highlights of the Saints and I'm seeing a lot of the Saints in this Lions team. The Saints despite being a high scoring offense weren't the most vertical of offenses. They always had a good running game and good depth at receiver. They were efficient and kept the ball moving down the field and weren't so much a big chunk offense. Brees lead the league in pass attempts multiple times and the Saints ran the ball a lot. The Saints typically ran more plays than any other team. I see a lot of Brees in Goff and a lot of the Saints in this Lions offense.