Detroit Lions Offseason Thread 2023

[RedRamage]

11 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I get the feeling that the Lions are 100% sold on Goff. If I were to guess (and I'm only guessing here) they are probably like 90% sold on Goff. Now I'm biased here cause this is also how I feel right now.  Goff played very well last year, but I'm just not quite really to go all in on him. *IF* this is where the Lions are as well, then it makes sense to not talk about an extension right now.

Goff is still under contact for 2023 and 2024. If plays as well as (or better) he did in 2022 this season then you work on the extension next off season. If he regresses and/or Hooker looks like the real deal then maybe you go into 2024 without an extension?

To try and head off some inevitable questions:

• How can you not like Goff after 2022? I do like Goff. He did very well in 2022 and I hope that continues.
• Why didn't you argue for the same thing with Stafford? Different situations... different front office, different coaches, different teams. Different talent levels on the teams. Generally speaking there were much bigger issues on the team than if the QB was "only" good or truly great.
• Why are you so eager to move on from Goff? I'm not. But the team has control over him for two more years. There's no need to rush into a big extension right now. If everything else was the same exact same but Goff was only signed through 2023 I'd be pushing hard for the Lions to sign him to an extension before the start of the season.

 

[Stanley70]

PFF just ranked all positions and Goff ranked 16th amongst QB's, behind Geno Smith and Derek Carr. It is based on the upcoming 2023 season, not future value. 

I would have Goff higher than that but it shows what others think of him. With very little mobility and an average at best arm he has a ceiling that is much lower than other more talented QB's. It also limits play calling a bit too.

I believe they want to see what they have in Hooker before they hand out a 160M 4 year deal to Goff. Also why do a deal now when he could get hurt this year and they would be stuck with him.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Stanley70

[Motown Bombers]

"In the 10 seasons in which Stafford has logged at least 300 dropbacks, only three times has he ranked within the top 10 quarterbacks in PFF passing grade. He's never ranked higher than sixth.

More often than not, Stafford has been solidly in the QB8-QB16 range, whether looking at grades or efficiency as measured by expected points added (EPA) per play."

Cole: Buyer Beware for teams banking on extraordinary quarterback play from Matthew Stafford | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

 

Now they have Stafford ahead of Goff despite Stafford having one of the worst years of his career. I can't help but think if Stafford was still a Lion and Goff had this season on the Rams they wouldn't be reversed in rankings. 

[buddha]

if stafford were still a lion and goff were still a ram, this board would consider goff a middle of the pack at best qb and stafford as a top 5-10 qb.  

[buddha]

stafford has better arm strength than goff.  he has top 1% arm strength.

like red said, goff had a good year last year and we all like him, but he has some weaknesses like a lack of mobility that likely limit his ceiling.  the lions are aware of this which is probably why they drafted a potentially more mobile qb in hooker.  

we'll see if that works out.  if not  they have goff for two more season under contract and can alwaya franchise him for a third if they like.  there isnt any need to do an extension now (unless they want some cap relief this year or next).

[Motown Bombers]

Stafford is now 35 and an old 35 at that. He did not look good at all last year when healthy. It's funny PFF didn't think highly of Stafford until he went to the Rams. PFF in 2019 had Goff ranked 1st in the NFL in big time throws and now he's just a game manager. These analysis seem to change wildly. 

[RandyMarsh]

I also get a kick out of some of these sites/writers that say he is a product of the talent around him but then you see how low they rank the guys around him and it doesnt add up. 

For instance PFF didn't have the Lions o line in their top 10, they graded their rbs as only average and only ASRB was graded highly as a receiver. 

Its like they are talking out of both sides of their mouth, you rank his supporting cast as middle of the pack when grading them but then downplay Goff by saying the cast is great. Which one is it?

Btw according to QB WAR Goff only trailed Mahomes last season so he was far more than thy game manager that some describe him as.

[buddha]

i dont really like or agree with pff stats on most things.  i had a subscription for a year and always found their ratings puzzling.  admitedly, i dont know football, but ive watched it enough to know good from bad in general.  and pff's interpretations were....not what i was seeing.

every time i listen to a pff podcast - most of which i like - they have the lions oline as one of the top 3 or 4 units in the entire league.  they love amon ra, and they like the direction theyre going.

they also think goff is an average qb.  probably because he is an average qb.  there is no shame in that and you can win with that.  but if there is a system that has goff as the #2 qb behind patrick mahomes, that system is flawed.

[NYLion]

1 hour ago, Stanley70 said:

PFF just ranked all positions and Goff ranked 16th amongst QB's, behind Geno Smith and Derek Carr. It is based on the upcoming 2023 season, not future value. 

I would have Goff higher than that but it shows what others think of him. With very little mobility and an average at best arm he has a ceiling that is much lower than other more talented QB's. It also limits play calling a bit too.

I believe they want to see what they have in Hooker before they hand out a 160M 4 year deal to Goff. Also why do a deal now when he could get hurt this year and they would be stuck with him.

I'm curious, who was 1-15? 

I'm not a Goffling by any means but having him at 16 for this upcoming season seems absurd.

[RandyMarsh]

Goff excelled in virtually every metric, whether it was YPA, air yards per throw, air yards per completion, turnover percentage, qbr  etc.

Across the board his numbers whether traditional or advanced mirrored Joe Burrow so while I don't think he is the 2nd best qb in the league its not far fetched to say he had the 2nd best season last year. 

Also I believe WAR takes into account your opponents and Goff played the toughest schedule in football last year and still put up those elite numbers. 

Edited June 7, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, NYLion said:

I'm curious, who was 1-15? 

I'm not a Goffling by any means but having him at 16 for this upcoming season seems absurd.

They had Kirk Cousins 9th, Tua 11th, Carr 14th and Smith 15th. I would say Goff is ahead of those. I would also debate Goff over Stafford who was 12th given Stafford's age, injuries and his severe decline last year but I can see Stafford bouncing back. They also have Watson 13th. That one is more of a question as to whether will regain his former form. 

[NYLion]

11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

They had Kirk Cousins 9th, Tua 11th, Carr 14th and Smith 15th. I would say Goff is ahead of those. I would also debate Goff over Stafford who was 12th given Stafford's age, injuries and his severe decline last year but I can see Stafford bouncing back. They also have Watson 13th. That one is more of a question as to whether will regain his former form. 

I guess it's not THAT egregious when I see those names. Tua is likely to have a massive year with those weapons so no problem with him being that high (I'd actually have him higher), Carr and Smith are around Goff's level so.. fine and Watson has obvious upside potential now that the legal stuff is seemingly behind him. If they had somebody like Daniel Jones ahead of him, I'd take issue with it.

16 just seems awfully low considering the way Goff closed out last season, but these rankings don't mean much in any case.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, NYLion said:

I guess it's not THAT egregious when I see those names. Tua is likely to have a massive year with those weapons so no problem with him being that high (I'd actually have him higher), Carr and Smith are around Goff's level so.. fine and Watson has obvious upside potential now that the legal stuff is seemingly behind him. If they had somebody like Daniel Jones ahead of him, I'd take issue with it.

16 just seems awfully low considering the way Goff closed out last season, but these rankings don't mean much in any case.

I guess than the issue with Tua is they knock Goff for having a strong supporting cast so shouldn't Tua be knocked as well? What about Tua only being successful with McDaniels? Goff gets knocked for Ben Johnson after Goff was only suppose to be successful because of McVay. 

Geno Smith has never been this successful at any point in his career. He was a failed starter who turned journeyman QB and then at 32 just found it? Smith also started to decline the 2nd half last year. 

Carr gets run out of Vegas after struggling with alleged offensive guru Josh McDaniel the same way Goff got ran out of LA. 

[RandyMarsh]

Id probably put Goff near the top of tier 3 in my rankings. 

Tier 1

Mahomes

Tier 2

Allen

Burrow

Herbert

Hurts

Lawrence(Numbers haven't warranted this high of ranking but I believe he is going to break out)

Then Id go Tier 3 where you have guys like Goff, Cousins, Stafford, Rodgers and maybe a couple others. 

But as Goff showed last year he is definitely capable of playing at the tier 2 level so he is right on the edge of it for me. 

Edited June 7, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[buddha]

7 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Id probably put Goff near the top of tier 3 in my rankings. 

Tier 1

Mahomes

Tier 2

Allen

Burrow

Herbert

Hurts

Lawrence(Numbers haven't warranted this high of ranking but I believe he is going to break out)

Then Id go Tier 3 where you have guys like Goff, Cousins, Stafford, Rodgers and maybe a couple others. 

But as Goff showed last year he is definitely capable of playing at the tier 2 level so he is right on the edge of it for me. 

i'd put lamar jackson and deshaun watson in tier 2.  

we'll see if watson can recover his form after missing so much time, but before his suspension he waa dynamic.  lamar too before his injuries.

[RandyMarsh]

6 minutes ago, buddha said:

i'd put lamar jackson and deshaun watson in tier 2.  

we'll see if watson can recover his form after missing so much time, but before his suspension he waa dynamic.  lamar too before his injuries.

Yeah forgot about Lamar, agree he should be in tier 2. Id put Deshaun in tier 3 until he proves that he is all the way back after his suspension. 

[Motown Bombers]

Jared Goff was way more productive than Lamar Jackson but I guess it makes a difference whether you run fast or not. 

[RandyMarsh]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Jared Goff was way more productive than Lamar Jackson but I guess it makes a difference whether you run fast or not. 

Yeah after looking at his numbers the past couple years I may have jumped the gun putting him in tier two. He hasnt really been elite in a few years which is a surprise to me, for some reason I thought he has been better. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Jared Goff was way more productive than Lamar Jackson but I guess it makes a difference whether you run fast or not. 

By that metric Justin Fields should be top 3. Goff had multiple metrics in which he was top 7/top 10 for the past year and a half. He's an even better, more efficient Kirk Cousins.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, RandyMarsh said:

Yeah after looking at his numbers the past couple years I may have jumped the gun putting him in tier two. He hasnt really been elite in a few years which is a surprise to me, for some reason I thought he has been better. 

People get enamored with his ability to run. There's no doubt he can run circles around Goff. But at the end of the day, when you can combine rushing and passing, Goff was simply more productive and that wasn't because Jackson was injured. Goff on a per game basis averaged more yards and TDs and was a more accurate passer than Jackson. 

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

By that metric Justin Fields should be top 3. Goff had multiple metrics in which he was top 7/top 10 for the past year and a half. He's an even better, more efficient Kirk Cousins.

PFF had Fields 18th which I think is a little high. Elite running QBs tend to be overrated when their overall production is on par or less than pocket passers. At the end of the day, I would rather Gibbs be running with the ball than my QB. Jackson running means fewer opportunities for your playmakers. I wish Goff was a little more mobile for when the play breaks down, but you don't need to be a 2nd RB. 

[RandyMarsh]

8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

People get enamored with his ability to run. There's no doubt he can run circles around Goff. But at the end of the day, when you can combine rushing and passing, Goff was simply more productive and that wasn't because Jackson was injured. Goff on a per game basis averaged more yards and TDs and was a more accurate passer than Jackson. 

Me personally sometimes I put too much emphasis or atleast remember guys too much of when they are at their very best vs. who they actually are now or most of the time. 

Like Lamar I think back to how dominant he was in his MVP season and that is what my mind kinda thinks of him as even though he really hasn't been that player in a few years. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

PFF had Fields 18th which I think is a little high. Elite running QBs tend to be overrated when their overall production is on par or less than pocket passers. At the end of the day, I would rather Gibbs be running with the ball than my QB. Jackson running means fewer opportunities for your playmakers. I wish Goff was a little more mobile for when the play breaks down, but you don't need to be a 2nd RB. 

I think this is a good point and doesn't get thought of or discussed or expanded upon nearly enough. I say this as someone who just a few years back was all over the running, duel-threat QB and really wanted one here. I liked Fields a lot coming out of Ohio State too as a fit for the Lions.

Why do running backs generally have such a short shelf life? It seems it is because of all the punishment and abuse their bodies take each time they run the ball and get hit. Not that I wish a shortened career on a specific player or subset of players persay. However, if I had the choice between having my $6-8-10 million/year RB taking a beating and having a shortened career or my $20 million/year QB (who acts like my RB given the number of times he runs with the ball) having a shortened career, I'll take the RB. It seems that we're going to see more and more of these running QBs turn into pumpkins and have shortened careers given that they are taking the punishment of a RB.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I think this is a good point and doesn't get thought of or discussed or expanded upon nearly enough. I say this as someone who just a few years back was all over the running, duel-threat QB and really wanted one here. I liked Fields a lot coming out of Ohio State too as a fit for the Lions.

Why do running backs generally have such a short shelf life? It seems it is because of all the punishment and abuse their bodies take each time they run the ball and get hit. Not that I wish a shortened career on a specific player or subset of players persay. However, if I had the choice between having my $6-8-10 million/year RB taking a beating and having a shortened career or my $20 million/year QB (who acts like my RB given the number of times he runs with the ball) having a shortened career, I'll take the RB. It seems that we're going to see more and more of these running QBs turn into pumpkins and have shortened careers given that they are taking the punishment of a RB.

It's not just the injury risk but getting teammates involved. Jackson for his career averages over 10 carries per games. That could be a couple carries by Gibbs, or a couple receptions by St Brown or Williams. 

[gehringer_2]

11 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

It seems that we're going to see more and more of these running QBs turn into pumpkins and have shortened careers given that they are taking the punishment of a RB.

I think it is natural that in any period when QB salaries are growing more rapidly than salaries in general, there will probably be push back from ownership down through orgs to reduce risk to expensive QBs by reducing their running and a result will be a swing back toward drop back passers. There is probably some cyclic character to all this.