General Tiger Discussion

[1984Echoes]

33 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

... Trading Mize for Noelvi Marte, Julio Rodriguez, and Kyle Lewis is a win.

If you end up with zero pitching, that's an asinine trade.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I think we need to pump the brakes on Victor Reyes as a breakout candidate. Sure, he's hit .325/.348/.516 since the break, but he's the beneficiary of a .398 BABIP since then. Normalize his stats to the league average BABIP of .292, and his line drops to .246/.273/.405. And that's before we normalize for his 14.8% HR/FB rate, which is double the MLB average. Feels unsustainable. And he'll be 27 next year, not exactly prospect age.

I mean, sure, let's see him in spring training, but unless he found God over the winter, I'm penciling him in for fourth outfielder. Because if he's the same guy next year with the meh glove and the 7:1 K/BB ratio, and he still ends up as a starter, that would mean we have a playoff-sized hole out there.

he's hit for high average before - I wouldn't argue that the bat to ball skill is real, but he's not going to walk and he's probably not going to hit for much power so yes - even the optimistic reading is 4th OF. But that's fine, we need a decent 4th OF.

[oblong]

I’ve always thought that Tori Hunter in RF impacted Austin’s defense. The CF is supposed to be the captain in the OF but he either deferred to the vet too often or adjusted his play thinking he was with Tori from 4 years prior. 

[1984Echoes]

I don't think we're looking for a 4th OF'er next year. Maybe a 5th.

I believe we start out the season with Baddoo in LF, Hill in CF, Greene in RF. And Grossman is the 4th with Hinch flopping the 4 of them around PA's/ matchups as needed.

Cameron, Robson and Reyes in Toledo until needed in Detroit. Or... one of them makes it as a 5th OF'er...

Edited September 30, 2021 by 1984Echoes

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

If you end up with zero pitching, that's an asinine trade.

Let me be more demonstrative:

I am not interested in 5 All-Star 1B'man and 1 All-Star Starting Pitcher.

I am interested in 5 All-Star Starting Pitchers and 1 All-Star 1B'man.

Makes no sense to trade Mize-Manning or Skubal. There are ALTERNATIVE methods to add bats without creating a massive hole in the rotation.

[Edman85]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

If you end up with zero pitching, that's an asinine trade.

To quote your avatar...

wrong

[chasfh]

OK on Victor.

But Grossman as a fourth outfielder? He's the best hitter we have in the OF by a fair margin. I don't think you slot him behind Baddoo in left, at least not six months out. And I do think Riley Greene would have to be the clear best outfield hitter on the team in Lakeland to get the call for March 31.

[RandyMarsh]

Our old pal Castellanos is likely to be a free agent this year. Short term he can be the bat we need, long term he can take over for Cabrera in 2 years as the full time DH.

[1984Echoes]

Greene will be the starter out of ST.

Grossman as "4th OF'er" doesn't mean that he doesn't end up with the most PA's as an OF'er... because he could. Baddoo looks like a platoon lefty at this point, and kid gloves with Greene means lots of Grossman time. And Hill may start in CF (this is what I believe will happen) but Baddoo will be sprinkled in liberally, or Greene will, in CF.

Forget the ugly term "4th OF'er", by PA's, I think Grossman will be 2nd-ish in PA's out of those 4 OF's.

[1984Echoes]

4 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Our old pal Castellanos is likely to be a free agent this year. Short term he can be the bat we need, long term he can take over for Cabrera in 2 years as the full time DH.

And he doesn't cost Casey Mize.

[1984Echoes]

11 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

To quote your avatar...

wrong

Nope. Not wrong.

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

How can you say trading Mize is asinine without knowledge of what is coming in return?

 

Trading Mize for Trevor Rosenthal is asinine.

Trading Mize for Noelvi Marte, Julio Rodriguez, and Kyle Lewis is a win.

Right, every player in baseball is tradeable in the right deal.  

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

he's hit for high average before - I wouldn't argue that the bat to ball skill is real, but he's not going to walk and he's probably not going to hit for much power so yes - even the optimistic reading is 4th OF. But that's fine, we need a decent 4th OF.

I do think that Reyes has gotten some overly generous praise in national media (Mike Petriello from MLB.com in particular).

Having said that, people who follow the team more often seem more level headed on his outlook.

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Right, every player in baseball is tradeable in the right deal.  

Sure.

But what are the odds that someone is gonna give the right value for Mize? The price oughtta be very high.

[1984Echoes]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Sure.

But what are the odds that someone is gonna give the right value for Mize? The price oughtta be very high.

And a team is not going to offer it's top two position prospects for Mize, plus another MLB OF'er to boot.

It's like us offering Willi Castro to the Blue Jays for Guerrero and Bichette and them saying "yeah, OK, sure."

There is no reality whatsoever to the example Edman gave. It's complete BS.

And on the other note: Yeah, every player is tradeable for the right price... but you can't end up with a team of 5 1B'Man and 1 starter. That's asinine. There IS something called "building a team". So my statement stands.

Edited September 30, 2021 by 1984Echoes

[1984Echoes]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

... But what are the odds that someone is gonna give the right value for Mize? The price oughtta be very high.

And on that point: Odds...

Mize hasn't reached his full potential yet. So we're not getting top dollar for him. Another year or two, when he starts pushing for CY's, his price goes WAY up. 

Then we can speak about what his true trade value is. We'd be selling him cheap right now because the Mariners ain't offering Marte, Rodriguez & Lewis for him. Neither is any other team. 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Sure.

But what are the odds that someone is gonna give the right value for Mize? 

Probably no more or less than any other talented young player.  

[SoCalTiger]

Going to be a fun, interesting and meaningful off season after many sitting on the sidelines and dumpster diving. Love it. The pressure is now very high for Al Avilia. 

[casimir]

9 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't think we're looking for a 4th OF'er next year. Maybe a 5th.

I believe we start out the season with Baddoo in LF, Hill in CF, Greene in RF. And Grossman is the 4th with Hinch flopping the 4 of them around PA's/ matchups as needed.

Cameron, Robson and Reyes in Toledo until needed in Detroit. Or... one of them makes it as a 5th OF'er...

Grossman starts in one of the corners, possibly splitting time like he has this season.  If Greene makes the team, its as a starter, possibly spending a good deal of time in CF.  Baddoo and Hill will likely make the team and be mixed & matched depending upon game to game situations.  Baddoo probably gets an edge in starts over Hill because most pitching is right handed, but I don't think they will be a strict platoon based on pitching arm.

I thought before that there might be room for a 5th OF, but I think it was talked through on the old place and it didn't seem feasible.  13 Ps, 13 nonPs.  2 Cs, Cabrera, starting IF, the 4 OFs mentioned above, and now the nonP roster is down to 2 spots.  One of those has to be an IF (could be an IF/OF).  Do they consider Haase the 5th OF in that scenario and go with 2 IFs on the bench?  Do they go with an IF and an IF/OF?  Either way, it bumps Cameron/Robson/Reyes out of Detroit.

Not that it means they can't return to Toledo, but I think Reyes & Robson get removed from the 40 this offseason.  Reyes has had his opportunities and Robson was kind of an emergency call up this season.  They'll be 27 next season, which ain't exactly old, but considering Reyes' MLB resume and the fact the Robson has been considered nothing more than minor league filler by the organization, I think the writing might on the wall there, especially if those 40 man spots are needed.

[chasfh]

Who can use a still-raw-though-improving rookie pitcher right now enough to give up multiple top prospects and/or a controllable All-Star-level hitter at a skill position to get him?

[casimir]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Who can use a still-raw-though-improving rookie pitcher right now enough to give up multiple top prospects and/or a controllable All-Star-level hitter at a skill position to get him?

San Diego.  Manning for Abrams.

[chasfh]

Abrams is not an All-Star-level hitter. He’s not even a major leaguer. He’s a Rookie ball prospect. So that certainly doesn’t help us in 2022, almost certainly not in 2023, probably not in 2024, and maybe not even in 2025. He’s also not multiple top prospects all by himself.

That said, San Diego probably makes that trade, straight up.

Edited September 30, 2021 by chasfh

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, casimir said:

Grossman starts in one of the corners, possibly splitting time like he has this season.  If Greene makes the team, its as a starter, possibly spending a good deal of time in CF.  Baddoo and Hill will likely make the team and be mixed & matched depending upon game to game situations.  Baddoo probably gets an edge in starts over Hill because most pitching is right handed, but I don't think they will be a strict platoon based on pitching arm.

 

it not yet established Hill can hit enough to stay on an MLB roster - or even ever stay healthy long enough hold his spot. I could see Greene being held back long enough for them to decide which of Reyes and Hill gets the 4th OF spot - or just carrying 5 OF early in the season when they might not need the extra pitcher. And of course also will no doubt depend some on what the three of them do in ST.

[1776]

7 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

Going to be a fun, interesting and meaningful off season after many sitting on the sidelines and dumpster diving. Love it. The pressure is now very high for Al Avilia. 

This is exactly where I am and have been for more than a year. Avila hasn’t hasn’t proven jack to me to this point. “The pressure is now very high for Avila” is the big truth now. 
To repeat myself, Avila is going to have to be a real GM going forward, not just some guy that has the top picks in every draft for the last two or three years and sits by watching the big tank-big difference. I hope he proves me wrong but I am not sold on his ability to outmaneuver other GM’s for talent and money. 

True, very interesting off-season coming up.

[casimir]

32 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Abrams is not an All-Star-level hitter. He’s not even a major leaguer. He’s a Rookie ball prospect. So that certainly doesn’t help us in 2022, almost certainly not in 2023, probably not in 2024, and maybe not even in 2025. He’s also not multiple top prospects all by himself.

That said, San Diego probably makes that trade, straight up.

Not even ready until 2025?  I think you might be underestimating Abrams a bit.  He was above league average at the plate (105 OPS+) despite being young (-4.0 years) in AA before an on field collision ended his season.