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2024 Presidential Election thread


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17 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I'll leave the Jacksonville resident poster to get into the particulars, but certainly it seems like a proxy loss by default for Meatball Ron...

Makes you wonder how well Ron would have done against a quality candidate in 2022.  He barely beat Gilliam in 2018.

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It's tiring watching Democrats give up on Florida and acting like it's West Virginia. Trump won Florida by about the same margin Biden won Michigan. Michigan hasn't elected a statewide Republican in over six years and there's been nine elections. Republicans don't talk about Michigan the same way Democrats talk about Florida. 

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51 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It's tiring watching Democrats give up on Florida and acting like it's West Virginia. Trump won Florida by about the same margin Biden won Michigan. Michigan hasn't elected a statewide Republican in over six years and there's been nine elections. Republicans don't talk about Michigan the same way Democrats talk about Florida. 

Losing in Miami-Dade really hurts us though. That's akin to when John Engler won Wayne and Washtenaw counties back in the day in Michigan. Without the Miami-Dade area and winning back Hispanics there, how do Florida Democrats recover in the short term?

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3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Losing in Miami-Dade really hurts us though. That's akin to when John Engler won Wayne and Washtenaw counties back in the day in Michigan. Without the Miami-Dade area and winning back Hispanics there, how do Florida Democrats recover in the short term?

And Democrats were still winning at the national level in Michigan and Granholm ended up becoming governor after Engler. 

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The biggest red flag with Florida, even more than some of the issues in Miami-Dade (although that is related), is the state Democratic Party, at least up until recently, has been one of the worst run in the country. When you add that to the overall size and scope of the state, and the amount of money it takes to compete there, the simple CBA would suggest that money earmarked to Florida would probably be better spent in AZ/WI/MI/PA/GA/NC, or even TX for that matter, until they can prove more competent and driving turnout and marketing themselves to various constituencies in the state.

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The Democrats need more states to hold and expand the senate. You can't rely on West Virginia, Montana and Ohio much longer. Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia all have two Democrats. Wisconsin has one, so that leaves about three senate seats. Where are your other options? Texas? Alaska seems like a viable option to pick up a senate seat. Are we completely writing off Ohio too? Florida seems like the next logical option. 

Edited by Motown Bombers
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On 5/17/2023 at 8:27 AM, mtutiger said:

I'll leave the Jacksonville resident poster to get into the particulars, but certainly it seems like a proxy loss by default for Meatball Ron...

 

I left my mayor vote blank, but that is because I am friends with Donna's ex-husband's best friend, and on the golf course have heard dozens of stories about how big of a piece of **** she and her now husband are.

...

Background here, that divorce was very very public. She was the news anchor of the NBC affiliate, married to the sports anchor for the same affiliate, was caught banging the weatherman who she is now married to. it was ugly in public, and behind the scenes even uglier and makes her and especially the weatherman look awful. She is a 3X breast cancer survivor, which is a good story. She started a charity for it, which is good PR. There's a marathon named after her where everybody wears pink and thinks they are helping. The tax forms for the charity don't paint that great of a picture, but I have yet to find the smoking gun where it is just fraud. Best case, she just runs a bloated organization that doesn't really do much of what it says it does. Anyways, back to the divorce and her cancer. The story I heard involved the weatherman kicking her out after the affair was found out when she had one of her bouts with cancer. The sportscaster took her back and took care of her, and when she got better, she left for the weatherman again. Personal **** like that shouldn't affect me politically, but there's just too much about her character and leadership that raised questions.

...

More background, Jacksonville has a jungle primary for local positions. Everybody runs in March, if somebody gets 50% they win. Top 2 runoff in May.

...

I answered a poll back in the fall asking me about the mayor race. At the time, believe it or not, of the five people, I said Daniel Davis. I have a MAGA friend who thinks I'm still right wing and gives me his endorsements. He called Davis a RINO around that time, and it piqued my interest. He wasn't perfect by any means. He was head of the Chamber of Commerce, and the young professional organization i was a part of in my 20's that was a branch of the Chamber was doing happy hours in December 2020, for example. On the other hand, the Chamber has been LGBT friendly, helped get the city vaccinated, pushed for confederate statues to be torn down, so at the time he wasn't too extreme at all. Of the other candidates, I have mentioned Donna (D). Leanna Cumber (R) was a councilwoman who was trying the right flank. She raised a lot of traditional R money, had some troubling negative ads. And when she tried to steer to the middle, she was sure to use her maiden name, Gutierrez. Al Ferraro (R) was the right wing wacko candidate. And finally Audrey Gibson (D) was a term limited state senator. I ended up voting for Gibson, despite a fuax paux a couple years ago that came off as antisemetic.

Davis and Cumber had a very negative primary while Donna basically sat on the sideline. The negative ads between Davis and Cumber got to be a joke. Both calling the other woke and liberal, etc. I think they did eachother more harm than good. Once Davis made the final 2, he really went downhill. Aligned with some questionable right wing groups. Hosted some insurrectionists a couple weeks ago. I should note, my no vote was sent in early April. I may have swallowed my pride and voted Donna if I waited until election day. Donna ran a very positive campaign. Davis ran ads saying Donna was an anarchist because she attended a BLM protest. Also, google Kent Stermon. Easy to tie him to Davis. (VERY easy to tie him to DeSantis)

I don't know how much of a Desantis rebuke this is. Davis was a lot closer with the incumbent Mayor, Curry. And there has been a definite schism between Curry and DeSantis for a while now. I don't know the origin. A notorious Curry-aligned campaign manager, Tim Baker, ran Davis's campaign. Baker is a definite rat****er who plays to the worst common denominator. DeSantis' endorsement of Davis was tepid at best. The smaller race, property appraiser, included a MAGA former state rep vs. a black city councilwoman. That seat has been Republican for as long as I can remember. The MAGA rep's street signs include a photoshopped picture of him with DeSantis. The fact that he lost is a bigger DeSantis rebuke, IMO. But still, the city council is 14R-5D (One R endorsed Donna).  Five of those seats are city-wide, and all were won by R's (one decided yesterday).

Still kind of hilarious Davis had a 4X funding advantage and lost though...

Edited by Edman85
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1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

 

I left my mayor vote blank, but that is because I am friends with Donna's ex-husband's best friend, and on the golf course have heard dozens of stories about how big of a piece of **** she and her now husband are.

...

 

yeah - it's hard to know what chaos in a private life will mean to someone's professional performance. As long as it doesn't lead to blackmail.....

External markers of leadership are better.

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I would think Disney's announcement about canceling plans for expansion in Florida would be more damning in the long run than a mayoral election result. I see more milage about DeSantis discouraging business growth in the state with his cultural wars.

 

But what do I know, Youngkin doesn't seem to be phased about chasing a battery plant out of the most impoverished portion of Virginia. 

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3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

yeah - it's hard to know what chaos in a private life will mean to someone's professional performance. As long as it doesn't lead to blackmail.....

External markers of leadership are better.

The underwhelming breast cancer charity despite publicizing its greatness points to leadership woes as well. Also reports that she was an MLM supplement pusher as recently as 4-5 years ago.

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