Tigers Hire Scott Harris as President of Baseball Operations

[Dave Christian]

Some folks are done with Badoo.

I'm done with Torkelson, there is nothing there at the plate at all.

To think that I was one happy fan when they drafted him. I'm just not feeling it anymore.

[Longgone]

53 minutes ago, Dave Christian said:

Some folks are done with Badoo.

I'm done with Torkelson, there is nothing there at the plate at all.

To think that I was one happy fan when they drafted him. I'm just not feeling it anymore.

Again, it's too soon to be writing anyone off.

[sabretooth]

2 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

Sure, the logical thing to do is hang onto Baddoo for two reasons, he's young and he's cheap.  There's no way you're going to be able to overhaul the entire roster in one off-season, and it makes sense that Baddoo is going to stay since there's a sliver of a chance he can perform adequately enough.  If Harris does his job right, I don't think Baddoo has any shot of a starting job, but maybe he can be a bench player (especially since there are always unforeseen injuries).  

I'm not a fan of Baddoo, but I'm also not a fan of most of the hitters the Tigers currently have.  There are only three hitters worth keeping, Greene, Hasse and Baez (and you only keep Baez because of his contract).  Maybe keep Meadows because he can potentially be healthy enough to be a comeback player.  They could get rid of everyone else and I wouldn't be upset about it.  There are some worth keeping because of the potential upside, (such as Torkelson, Kreidler, and Carpenter) and I guess some people think Baddoo fits this category too.  I just don't see it and think he's just a one year wonder.  

I think maybe the way everyone has hit this year made me failed to recognize someone's potential.  They way I feel I just want Harris to blow everything up and start over.

I dont disagree with this at all.  I am more optimistic about Tork and Carpenter but if Harris can get better players I am all for it.

[Hart]

I would put Torkelson in a different category than our disappointments.  Everybody in baseball thought he was a top prospect and while top prospects often miss, we are only one year removed from that status.  Besides trying to find somebody to help him reach that potential, the Tigers have a tough decision what to do with first base next year.  You can pencil him in at first base and risk having some of the worst production at a premium hitting position.  You can send him to AAA but it doesn't feel like he has a lot to gain from going there at this point.  You can try and upgrade by signing a veteran on a short contract but then you block him.  

Ultimately, I think we are stuck rolling the dice with him next year.  It's probably worth getting Haase some work at first base in the offseason though so you have a backup option.  

 

[Tenacious D]

5 minutes ago, Hart said:

I would put Torkelson in a different category than our disappointments.  Everybody in baseball thought he was a top prospect and while top prospects often miss, we are only one year removed from that status.  Besides trying to find somebody to help him reach that potential, the Tigers have a tough decision what to do with first base next year.  You can pencil him in at first base and risk having some of the worst production at a premium hitting position.  You can send him to AAA but it doesn't feel like he has a lot to gain from going there at this point.  You can try and upgrade by signing a veteran on a short contract but then you block him.  

Ultimately, I think we are stuck rolling the dice with him next year.  It's probably worth getting Haase some work at first base in the offseason though so you have a backup option.  

 

Maybe another reason to bring back one of Candy or Schoop as 1B insurance.  Doesn’t make sense to acquire anyone to play there.

[casimir]

29 minutes ago, Hart said:

I would put Torkelson in a different category than our disappointments.  Everybody in baseball thought he was a top prospect and while top prospects often miss, we are only one year removed from that status.  Besides trying to find somebody to help him reach that potential, the Tigers have a tough decision what to do with first base next year.  You can pencil him in at first base and risk having some of the worst production at a premium hitting position.  You can send him to AAA but it doesn't feel like he has a lot to gain from going there at this point.  You can try and upgrade by signing a veteran on a short contract but then you block him.  

Ultimately, I think we are stuck rolling the dice with him next year.  It's probably worth getting Haase some work at first base in the offseason though so you have a backup option.  

 

I don’t know that I’d call it rolling the dice.  The kid is 23 years old and only 2 years removed from college and the draft.  It’s been bad, but this isn’t an unheard of MLB rookie season.

[oblong]

It's ok to give Tork more time.  His defense seems pretty good there and lets give the org an off season to look at things and hopefully give him some valuable instruction and feedback.

 

[Edman85]

The Mariners promoted their assistant GM to GM today. That tells me the Giants or Tigers were trying to get him for their vacant GM spot.

[Longgone]

9 hours ago, Hart said:

I would put Torkelson in a different category than our disappointments.  Everybody in baseball thought he was a top prospect and while top prospects often miss, we are only one year removed from that status.  Besides trying to find somebody to help him reach that potential, the Tigers have a tough decision what to do with first base next year.  You can pencil him in at first base and risk having some of the worst production at a premium hitting position.  You can send him to AAA but it doesn't feel like he has a lot to gain from going there at this point.  You can try and upgrade by signing a veteran on a short contract but then you block him.  

Ultimately, I think we are stuck rolling the dice with him next year.  It's probably worth getting Haase some work at first base in the offseason though so you have a backup option.  

 

Other than batting average Tork and Riley Greene's stats are eerily similar, but no one is screaming about Greene being a disappointment. Greene has a BABIP of .355, Tork .250.

[sabretooth]

43 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Other than batting average Tork and Riley Greene's stats are eerily similar, but no one is screaming about Greene being a disappointment. Greene has a BABIP of .355, Tork .250.

The difference in BABIP isnt a fluke or luck in the case of these two.  Greene hits a lot of groundballs (52 pct) and has a nice .270 BABIP on GB, and Tork hits a good number of flyballs (40 pct, which is appropriate for a power hitter of course).

The problem with Tork is that on his fly balls he only hits 6% of them for homers.  He has a pretty decent barrel rate but simply doesnt hit his flyballs far enough.

Torks failure on HR/FB is a little baffling because he has a good EV (90), pulls the ball (40 pct) and uses LA (15).   

My wild *guess* is that he just needs some tweaks to more consistently get under the ball/pull the ball in just the right way against the pitches he likes to hit for FBs.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Longgone said:

Other than batting average Tork and Riley Greene's stats are eerily similar, but no one is screaming about Greene being a disappointment. Greene has a BABIP of .355, Tork .250.

expanding on what Saber has already covered - Riley has a 323 OBP and plays a premium defensive position well. Torks is a great 1B but generally no-one gets excited about 1B D. Greene lacks ISO but has been pretty consisten, has not fallen off as teams scouted him and he is also 21 yrs old and should easily develop more power so you see the straight path to being an above average player. Torkelson is having major funks where he can't get on base (281 OBP for the season). One difference (as Saber also noted about their general FB rate) between them is their IFFB rate - Tork on the high side at 15% compared to Greene on the low side at 2%. It's deceptive, watching Tork, the number of LD outs he make might make you think he doesn't hit the ball in the air enough (which I thought at one point earlier in the season), but the numbers say he does (40% FB) and the high IFFB rate would mean he tends toward being on the bottom of the ball too often if anything. Couple that with a -5.1 FBrunsaboveave and I would guess what you have a is a guy that is not compensating for (swinging under/late) the more live fastballs he is getting in the majors.  His heat map also shows most of his success at the bottom half of the k-zone. This is where maybe I don't read it like Saber does, I think he may be too much on the bottom of the ball on strikes in the upper part of the zone. But that's what the team is supposed to be able to analyze!

Edited October 3, 2022 by gehringer_2

[buddha]

next year will tell us a lot more about tork and greene.  they've both had a year in the majors now, its likely that if theyre going to be stars or merely role players, we'll see it by the end of next year.  especially for tork as he's older (i think).

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, buddha said:

for tork as he's older (i think).

just about 13mo.

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

The difference in BABIP isnt a fluke or luck in the case of these two.  Greene hits a lot of groundballs (52 pct) and has a nice .270 BABIP on GB, and Tork hits a good number of flyballs (40 pct, which is appropriate for a power hitter of course).

The problem with Tork is that on his fly balls he only hits 6% of them for homers.  He has a pretty decent barrel rate but simply doesnt hit his flyballs far enough.

Torks failure on HR/FB is a little baffling because he has a good EV (90), pulls the ball (40 pct) and uses LA (15).   

My wild *guess* is that he just needs some tweaks to more consistently get under the ball/pull the ball in just the right way against the pitches he likes to hit for FBs.

It's mostly luck, Greene will likely have a higher career babip than tork, but maybe 10 points higher, not 100. The overall point is that these samples are just too small to make any kind of valid judgements, and the casual observer just looks at batting average and is down on Tork and okay with Greene, when the actuality is they have been about equally effective by any measure not affected by chance.

[bobrob2004]

2 hours ago, Longgone said:

Other than batting average Tork and Riley Greene's stats are eerily similar, but no one is screaming about Greene being a disappointment. Greene has a BABIP of .355, Tork .250.

Greene has a 99 wRC+ and a 0.9 WAR.  Torkelson has a 69 wRC+ and a -1.2 WAR.  Those are big differences.  

[Longgone]

8 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

Greene has a 99 wRC+ and a 0.9 WAR.  Torkelson has a 69 wRC+ and a -1.2 WAR.  Those are big differences.  

Those are both metrics based on results, which, in the short term is highly affected by chance. It will take a lot more data for these to normalize.

[bobrob2004]

1 hour ago, Longgone said:

Those are both metrics based on results, which, in the short term is highly affected by chance. It will take a lot more data for these to normalize.

So what stats were you referring to that are similar that isn't based on results?  

Edited October 3, 2022 by bobrob2004

[SoCalTiger]

Statistics aside Greene just seems to be more "comfortable" at the plate than Tork.

[Dave Christian]

6 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Statistics aside Greene just seems to be more "comfortable" at the plate than Tork.

A lot more comfortable in my opinion!

[Longgone]

16 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Statistics aside Greene just seems to be more "comfortable" at the plate than Tork.

So we're down to this. Pitiful.

[Stanley70]

If Harris is looking for the Tigers to "control the strike zone", i wonder how that will affect the decisions on some of these young guys that will be in the mix for 25 man spots next year. Since Baez and Schoop are under contract next year they will be back. But when it comes down to guys like Reyes, Carpenter, Badoo, HCastro, Haase and a few others, they are all pretty bad. At least according to BB/SO ratio's.

I am sure that if they are able to get a more promising corner outfield bat they will do so. And that shouldn't be too hard.

 

[Longgone]

33 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

So what stats were you referring to that are similar that isn't based on results?  

Barrels, hard hit rate, exit velo, walks, k's. 

It's very possible to envision a scenario where Greene has the .250 babip andTork a .355, with exactly the same underlying data, and then everyone would be bad mouthing Greene and be okay with Tork.

[chasfh]

Baddoo is an interesting case because he seems to have really benefited from whatever changes in coaching may have happened since Adam Melheuse came up from Toledo. His line drive percentage is up, and he is talking more walks.

On the other hand, Baddoo's success this month seems to have come mainly from seeing-eye grounders: his BABIP on grounders since 9/1 is .429, double the average BABIP during that period, so there's a lot of luck involved.

I wouldn't declare Baddoo a solution, but between that and how much Fangraphs loves his left field D (more than Statcast does, and despite his wet noodle arm), it's worth giving him a shot at the Opening Day roster next spring. But I also wouldn't be surprised if he crapped out, or even if Scott Harris threw him in on a multiplayer trade. I agree we won't DFA him, but even if he comes back in February, he's not necessarily a 50-50 shot to make it. We think Baddoo is good because we're Tigers fans, but Tigers good is not the same as big league good, at least not at this moment.

As for TORK!: well, he looks like he has all but given up on the season and is flailing away in frustration to mark time until Wednesday evening comes along. His last two weeks is as bad as any two-week stretch he's had this season—.132/.175/.211 slash, 6 (that's six) wRC+, and his WAR has dropped by almost half a win just since mid-September. He's not drawing walks and is striking out too much, because he's taking too many pitches down the pipe. This, despite that his hard hit rate is just about as good as anyone's in the game.

But as much as Baddoo been the beneficiary of good luck, TORK! has suffered from his share of bad luck: since September 1, his BABIP on fly balls and line drives is .308, which sounds about normal until we learn that MLB average for BABIP on line drives and fly balls since 9/1 is .393.

TORK! can be fixed, and that's got to be development job #1 this offseason. The Tigers must bank on the idea that he will be a productive mainstay for at least the next five years. Then we can't, then this rebuild is truly off the rails, because he was the centerpiece of the plate side of that. OTOH, Baddoo will be what he will be, and whatever we can get from him after today will be a bonus.

[bobrob2004]

9 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Barrels, hard hit rate, exit velo, walks, k's. 

It's very possible to envision a scenario where Greene has the .250 babip andTork a .355, with exactly the same underlying data, and then everyone would be bad mouthing Greene and be okay with Tork.

I don't fully agree with this.  Even if Greene and Torkelson had similar offensive numbers, Greene will still have a better WAR because he's playing above average defense at a premium position.  It's similar to when Trout would have a higher WAR than Miggy.  

It was already mentioned, but Torkelson has a 40.6% fly ball rate compared to Greene's 24%.  This is a big enough difference to at least partially explain the difference in BABIP.  Greene has an expected batting average of .244 compared to Torkelson's .222.  And despite this difference, they still have similar home run totals.  

The barrel% isn't even that similar, Torkelson has a 7.9% compared to Green's 9.6%. 

[gehringer_2]

33 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Barrels, hard hit rate, exit velo, walks, k's. 

It's very possible to envision a scenario where Greene has the .250 babip andTork a .355, with exactly the same underlying data, and then everyone would be bad mouthing Greene and be okay with Tork.

IMHO there is more of a fundamental difference though in that Greene has better K zone coverage right now than Tork does, so the BaBIP difference is not all just luck. I see a situation where Tork has to be able to do damage on more different kinds of strikes, that he's giving the pitcher too much of the plate. 

I wonder if part of it is just developing more mental toughness. It's seems when he has bad BaBIP luck, and he has had plenty, he then loses some of his aggressiveness and that feeds the pop-up machine.